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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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There's absolutely no reason to blindly trust the official CCP numbers, so it's interesting to see groups attempt to find clarity. Time will tell.
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Dec 6, 2021 17:21
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enki42 posted:The average in that model is nowhere near "mass disruption" levels, its basically China getting an A- on COVID compared to the rest of the world. Several hundred thousand deaths would have had very obvious disruptions; I'd call what we've seen happen throughout most of the world with COVID waves "mass disruption," but to clarify I mean jam-packed hospitals, large scale lockdowns, and other obvious signs of high levels of community spread. There's no real signs that they've had unchecked COVID spreading that could lead to those sorts of numbers like much of the rest of the world has had in multiple waves. brugroffil fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Dec 6, 2021 |
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Dec 6, 2021 17:24
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brugroffil posted:Several hundred thousand deaths would have had very obvious disruptions. There's no real signs that they've had unchecked COVID spreading that could lead to those sorts of numbers like much of the rest of the world has had in multiple waves. I definitely didn't say unchecked. The middle range estimate is far from the results you would get with unchecked growth (see the US for something close, but not quite that). It's like 60-70ish per 100K, which most countries in the world have had far worse than without super noticeable disruptions. That's "a western country handled that wave pretty well" territory, not "piling bodies in the streets". I'm definitely not saying that China has megadeaths, or secretly handled the pandemic poorly or anything. 3 deaths per million across the entire pandemic is a pretty big outlier though, so it wouldn't be shocking that deaths are underestimated somewhat more than most other countries (obviously everyone underestimates deaths).
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Dec 6, 2021 17:31
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How are u posted:There's absolutely no reason to blindly trust the official CCP numbers, so it's interesting to see groups attempt to find clarity. Time will tell. There isn't really, but the Chinese government is historically pretty bad at hiding their dirty laundry from anyone but domestic consumers of state media. "Actually they're probably cooking the numbers like lots of countries and deaths are 20-100% higher" and "They're admitting to less than 1% of the actual body count and a million dead were swept under the rug" are very different claims. It's not "blindly trusting the CCP numbers" to call bullshit when the second one is presented without some sort of actual evidence.
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Dec 6, 2021 18:09
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It's just bad collection and either people in over their heads or straight-up unethical publishing. It's not even a China-specific thing, they try to fill in gaps in countries where they don't have a complete picture (eg, Vietnam) and the maths they use are inappropriate. (thread) https://twitter.com/drStuartGilmour/status/1457247184106053633
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Dec 6, 2021 18:28
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I mean, the thing is is it's "excess deaths" not "covid deaths". China death rate went from 6.4 per 1000 (about 8 million deaths a year) in 2001 to 7.1 in 2019 (about 9 million deaths a year) just for normal population demographic reasons (population got older). But that makes the calculation of "excess death" wacky, where a million extra people die a year now but it's not really "excess" and what you are looking for is some sort of second order excess excess death. Which they calculated by just putting big giant error bars. Which is what they did everywhere but mattered a lot in china because a billion people means a small percent change is a silly amount of people.
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Dec 6, 2021 18:53
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The linked thread goes through the numerous methodological issues with their model that extend beyond China. Garbage in, garbage out.
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Dec 6, 2021 18:56
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Excess deaths are, imo, a fantastic way of approaching covid deaths. Thing is, you need to have solid data to base it all on.
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Dec 6, 2021 19:02
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Also I think the +160k isn't "maybe China resurrected people" but "for whatever reason fewer people died than the previous year despite covid" It's possible the reason is related, for example the reduction in traffic and/or workplace and/or flu deaths due to so many people staying home in lockdown exceeded the death toll from covid
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Dec 6, 2021 19:33
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https://twitter.com/politico/status/1467924366860165145?s=21 Kicks in December 27th, applies to everyone working non-remotely in the city. And as a kicker: quote:The city will also require all children between the ages of 5 and 11 — who have a 19 percent vaccination rate — to show proof of at least one shot before entering restaurants, theaters and gyms starting on Dec. 14, de Blasio announced.
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Dec 6, 2021 20:12
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5-year-olds need to show proof of vaccination before getting their reps in so they can get swole.
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Dec 6, 2021 20:13
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freebooter posted:Can't read this because it's paywalled but it looks rather fascinating, don't know whether it stacks up or not: You shouldn't employ machine learning to calculate things you do not have the data for.
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Dec 6, 2021 20:45
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Omicron has not resulted in any deaths so far, whereas past variants have resulted in deaths during the same time period. This strongly suggests that Omicron is not as deadly. We still need more data, but so far signs are promising. https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1467883163909345281
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Dec 6, 2021 20:50
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My favorite thing about the past 18 months is hearing "it's a casedemic, no one's dying of this disease anymore!" in every single 4 week window between detecting the rise in cases before the rise in deaths Never gets old.
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Dec 6, 2021 20:54
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VitalSigns posted:My favorite thing about the past 18 months is hearing "it's a casedemic, no one's dying of this disease anymore!" in every single 4 week window between detecting the rise in cases before the rise in deaths "Decoupling" is the dumbest term to come out of this pandemic. Apparently having some people vaccinated means that cases and hospitalizations have absolutely nothing to do with each other, even if the cases are in unvaccinated people.
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Dec 6, 2021 20:58
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dwarf74 posted:Excess deaths are, imo, a fantastic way of approaching covid deaths. Thing is, you need to have solid data to base it all on. The state pays out social benefits and collects taxes from the vast majority of the population, if there's one thing government has a very strong incentive to keep track of, it's the absolute number of births and deaths, as a result this kind of binary record keeping is usually rock solid. It's hard to game paying out social security to 20 million dead people per year, or not collecting taxes from 5 million live ones
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Dec 6, 2021 21:01
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Gio posted:Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Absence of evidence absolutely is evidence of absence. It's not absolute proof of absence (because in real life nothing is absolute proof of anything), and you have to make sure you are actually looking in the right place with the right methods and tools, but if you don't see something it might be because there really is nothing to see.
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Dec 6, 2021 21:03
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VitalSigns posted:My favorite thing about the past 18 months is hearing "it's a casedemic, no one's dying of this disease anymore!" in every single 4 week window between detecting the rise in cases before the rise in deaths Wait, if it takes 4 weeks to die and all the omicron cases are in the last two weeks doesn't that mean the deaths from the last 2 weeks would be pre-omicron? Dying 4 weeks after the purple part of the graph?
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Dec 6, 2021 21:09
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Wait, if it takes 4 weeks to die and all the omicron cases are in the last two weeks doesn't that mean the deaths from the last 2 weeks would be pre-omicron? Dying 4 weeks after the purple part of the graph? how would we know it takes 4 weeks to die from omicron? It might be two for all we know it might be six months who the gently caress knows yet
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Dec 6, 2021 21:10
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Covid can vary but it seems like 5-28 days is pretty common, unless you have a hospital with a really aggressive ventilator + ample supply of adrenaline If you're not on a ventilator and it takes more than a month to kill you, you're probably immunocompromised
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Dec 6, 2021 21:14
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Wait, if it takes 4 weeks to die and all the omicron cases are in the last two weeks doesn't that mean the deaths from the last 2 weeks would be pre-omicron? Dying 4 weeks after the purple part of the graph? You can see this easily on worldometer, for example this summer's delta cases peaked around Sep 4 but deaths peaked around Sep 25, but that doesn't mean delta didn't kill a single person sooner than 4 weeks after the first case was detected. Although obviously we got to hear all the standard claims about how cases and deaths had decoupled at the beginning of the wave
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Dec 6, 2021 21:24
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That's 3 weeks though. 21 days.
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Dec 6, 2021 22:12
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Yeah I was going off memory that it was approximately a four week interval, it's more like three
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Dec 6, 2021 22:24
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3 weeks from reported case to reported death is very consistent across the main strains in the US to date. This is cases with deaths offset by 21 days for the ancestral, alpha and Delta through the end of October, across the US, based on the NYTimes covid dataset 
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Dec 6, 2021 22:37
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VitalSigns posted:My favorite thing about the past 18 months is hearing "it's a casedemic, no one's dying of this disease anymore!" in every single 4 week window between detecting the rise in cases before the rise in deaths
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Dec 6, 2021 22:48
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Doctor Spaceman posted:It had some odd conclusions for places like Australia and New Zealand. This... would actually stack up for Australia if it's towards the lower end of the scale, of 800 excess deaths prevented, since we usually usually rack up 500-1500 flu deaths a year but had basically no flu season in the winters of 2020 or 2021. VitalSigns posted:My favorite thing about the past 18 months is hearing "it's a casedemic, no one's dying of this disease anymore!" in every single 4 week window between detecting the rise in cases before the rise in deaths enki42 posted:"Decoupling" is the dumbest term to come out of this pandemic. Apparently having some people vaccinated means that cases and hospitalizations have absolutely nothing to do with each other, even if the cases are in unvaccinated people. This is being willfully obtuse. Of course there's still going to be some linkage between case waves and death waves; the point is that those deaths are now relatively miniscule compared to when we had waves before vaccines, as anybody can tell by typing in "COVID [COUNTRY NAME]" on Google for any highly vaccinated nation.
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Dec 6, 2021 23:00
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freebooter posted:This... would actually stack up for Australia if it's towards the lower end of the scale, of 800 excess deaths prevented, since we usually usually rack up 500-1500 flu deaths a year but had basically no flu season in the winters of 2020 or 2021. Are you being willingly obtuse? Those comments were regarding oocc's pointless post about the SA omicron deaths not the garbage piece from the Economist.
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Dec 6, 2021 23:11
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With specific reference to "every single four week window" i.e. implying that people have been wrong to suggest that deaths have decoupled from cases since long before Omicron.
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Dec 6, 2021 23:19
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Jethro posted:Not to dig up a pages old argument, but this phrase has long driven me up the wall. I don't think it's actually that bad. The problem isn't with impossible standards like absolute proof, it's that presenting an absence of evidence does not directly assess the evidence for absence. That additional assessment is necessary to claim evidence of absence, and the phrase applies when it is not supplied or swept under the rug. Often we simultaneously do not have evidence for or against a claim, simply because we don't have enough evidence to say anything with confidence. Unfortunately, the nature of common statistical approaches like point estimation and null hypothesis testing make it easy to abuse underpowered or poor quality data to pretend to have evidence for a desired outcome (and coincidentally, such datasets are cheaper and easier to obtain!) In this particular case, Gio is absolutely right. We do need actual studies because there is far too much going on in small real-world datasets of emergent outbreaks to make severity assessments from marginal data like Thorn Wishes Talon was trying to do. Such analysis needs to be done extremely carefully to ensure that comparisons are actually comparing like to like. In this case, the younger demographics of the initial outbreak, small size so far, and fact that we are very early into the progression of initial identified cases would all need to be accounted for. Without that, statements like TWT's are pure speculation pretending to be based on evidence. E: "Correlation doesn't imply causation" is much more sketchy for laypeople, because the approach for demonstrating causation implies carefully demonstrating the correct correlations using appropriate theory and study design. freebooter posted:This is being willfully obtuse. Of course there's still going to be some linkage between case waves and death waves; the point is that those deaths are now relatively miniscule compared to when we had waves before vaccines, as anybody can tell by typing in "COVID [COUNTRY NAME]" on Google for any highly vaccinated nation. "Minuscule" is a qualitative term, but I definitely wouldn't use it for places like Canada where the peak-cases-to-peak-death ratio went from ~2% in the winter 2020 wave to ~1% in the Delta wave. It's smaller, but not by enough that I would call it "minuscule". Absolute death counts in the delta wave are on track to be ~1/3rd of the pre-vax death count, which also isn't great. freebooter posted:With specific reference to "every single four week window" i.e. implying that people have been wrong to suggest that deaths have decoupled from cases since long before Omicron. The point is "decoupled" is a stupid term totally decoupled from its colloquial or technical meaning. Average IFR is lower where people are vaxxed, that's it. If infections go up more people die and if fewer people get infected less people die (assuming comparable demographic distributions). Stickman fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Dec 6, 2021 |
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Dec 6, 2021 23:22
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I remember people saying Delta was milder and also going "where are the deaths?" a week after it got here. We'll know more in a few weeks but it seems too early to tell if omicron is milder or not
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Dec 6, 2021 23:31
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PostNouveau posted:I remember people saying Delta was milder and also going "where are the deaths?" a week after it got here. I don’t remember that at all, delta got wide attention as “a thing” by being “the variant that is loving up India”, it didn’t even get the delta name until after people were calling it the modi variant and stuff.
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Dec 6, 2021 23:57
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https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1467948685103230977Owlofcreamcheese posted:I don’t remember that at all, delta got wide attention as “a thing” by being “the variant that is loving up India”, it didn’t even get the delta name until after people were calling it the modi variant and stuff. "You can catch the Delta variant when fully vaccinated, but symptoms will likely be mild or non-existent, data suggests" https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-infection-vaccinated-often-mild-hardly-notice-2021-7 Even the vaccinated got their asses kicked with delta, they just didn't require hospitalization, which is clinically mild, but not really mild.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:12
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Judakel posted:
Seems about right. Vaccine worked quite well against delta.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:19
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Seems about right. Vaccine worked quite well against delta. Did it? Because I remember needing a booster.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:26
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Judakel posted:Did it? Because I remember needing a booster. No, your right, vaccines were fake and didn’t do anything
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Dec 7, 2021 00:28
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:No, your right, vaccines were fake and didn’t do anything There would be more dignity in simply admitting that you were wrong.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:30
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Judakel posted:There would be more dignity in simply admitting that you were wrong. Vaccines were extremely effective against delta.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:32
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Vaccines were extremely effective against delta. All three of them, yes. If not three, it wasn't so "mild" - unclinically speaking.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:34
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Vaccine effectiveness against severe illness waned for immunocompromised and elderly people and against infection for everyone, that's why you got a booster. Not because vaccines are much less effective against Delta, but because two-shot vaccine effectiveness wanes.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:36
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And in all likelihood the same would have been true even if Delta never popped up and we were still dealing with original COVID.
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Dec 7, 2021 00:41
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