COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

Gripweed posted:

It has a good shot at killing more people despite being less deadly. Omicron is bad, it's bad that this new variant exists, it's bad news. I know you guys see yourselves as rivals to the other thread and since they think Omicron is bad you feel the need to find some kind of silver lining to it. But to insist that we should be happy that an individual persons chance of dying of Covid may go down while the overall death rate may significantly go up is a bizarre exercise in pigheaded pollyannaism

It's bizarre to breathlessly jump on top of any bit of good news with a bunch of angry caveats. The equivalent would be someone who angerly posts about how much deadlier Ebola and Smallpox are anytime someone mentions bad news about COVID.

The world isn't black and white and you can be concerned about some aspects of a variant and relieved about other aspects of it.

FistEnergy posted:

Not if the severity reduction is minor and the transmission increase is significant. This is basic math. the overall fatalities will probably be higher. why are so many people still fatally optimistic after we've seen the "doomers" be much closer to the mark for 2 straight years?

Are you either neutral to or in favor of the individual death rate of Omicron being higher?

# ? Dec 24, 2021 20:18

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# ? May 27, 2024 09:25

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Shut the gently caress up about CSPAM as though there's some kind of Jets/Sharks rivalry going on. Don't like this thread? Think it's the "bad" thread? Fine, stay the gently caress out of it and post with the posting pals that you like. This goes both ways and I'm done tolerating this poo poo, either discuss Covid and Covid-related news or GTFO with your dumb forums drama crap.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 20:19

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

smoobles posted:

Our country giving up on controlling a disease as contagious as the measles, which breaks through vaccines and gives up to 20% of survivors long term organ damage is, in fact, really loving bad.

�Up to� working vastly harder than even that -60 on the Y axis was.

Like I know they�re young and world class athletes but at this point like of the pro sports leagues have been in and out of Covid protocols and almost none have had a noticeable decline - and considering the level they play at even a slight decline in physical ability would be very noticeable.

We can�t ignore the long term effects of Covid but that�s not a reason to overstate them by an order of magnitude.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Dec 24, 2021

# ? Dec 24, 2021 20:26

FistEnergy: Nov 3, 2000; DAY CREW: WORKING HARD; Fun Shoe

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Are you either neutral to or in favor of the individual death rate of Omicron being higher?

That's a pointless question

A. because it's way too early to quantify, which means the smart and sane policy for governments and individuals is to treat it as Delta+ until proven otherwise.

B. because the individual death rate will be significantly increased if/when the hospital system is overwhelmed and a lot of saveable people end up dead, which looks like a strong possibility

C. Because the individual death rate is one statistic and some statistics that should have a similar effect on individual choice are Overall Deaths, Hospitalizations, and Long COVID Cases.

In a vacuum, yes Individual Death Rate is better. But the problem is that nothing about the pandemic occurs in a vacuum, and for two years people on both ends of the political spectrum have been latching onto individual data points to give themselves permission to not vaccinate, take their masks off when vaccinated, go back to bars/restaurants, etc.

The far right are open about their bias and their stubbornness. But the liberals have been no better. Turning off the burner to stop a pot's rolling boil doesn't make the pot of water safe for anyone who walks by. Either we do the work and keep up the masks and social distancing until it's Actually Over, or COVID just keeps on doing laps and spitting out variants. And one of them will probably pick up full vaccine immunity. The liberals saying "you're immune so act like you're immune" or the First Lady saying "isn't it GREAT to take your mask off?" isn't much better than the Trump Team caricatures.

That's the real problem with your question - it leads people down the mental pathway to relaxing their individual behaviors, which is both selfish and proven wrong by 2 years of real-world data.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 20:40

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Professor Beetus posted:

Shut the gently caress up about CSPAM as though there's some kind of Jets/Sharks rivalry going on.

When you're LF, you're LF all the way
from your first Maoist post to your last dying day.
When you're LF, let 'em do what they can.
You got comrades around, you're a Naxalite fan!
You're never alone, you're never disconnected!
You're home with your own when a post is expected, you're well protected!
Then you are citing 'Das Kapital', man,
which you'll never stop quotin 'til you get permabanned.
When you're LF you stay LF!

Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Dec 24, 2021

# ? Dec 24, 2021 20:46

Natty Ninefingers: Feb 17, 2011

Rust Martialis posted:

When you're LF, you're LF all the way
from your first Maoist post to your last dying day.
When you're LF, let 'em do what they can.
You got comrades around, you're a Naxalite fan!
You're never alone, you're never disconnected!
You're home with your own when a post is expected, you're well protected!
Then you are citing 'Das Kapital', man,
which you'll never stop quotin 'til you get permabanned.
When you're LF you stay LF!

Definitely a song for a fully nasal style.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 21:31

A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

FistEnergy posted:

That's a pointless question

A. because it's way too early to quantify, which means the smart and sane policy for governments and individuals is to treat it as Delta+ until proven otherwise.

B. because the individual death rate will be significantly increased if/when the hospital system is overwhelmed and a lot of saveable people end up dead, which looks like a strong possibility

C. Because the individual death rate is one statistic and some statistics that should have a similar effect on individual choice are Overall Deaths, Hospitalizations, and Long COVID Cases.

In a vacuum, yes Individual Death Rate is better. But the problem is that nothing about the pandemic occurs in a vacuum, and for two years people on both ends of the political spectrum have been latching onto individual data points to give themselves permission to not vaccinate, take their masks off when vaccinated, go back to bars/restaurants, etc.

The far right are open about their bias and their stubbornness. But the liberals have been no better. Turning off the burner to stop a pot's rolling boil doesn't make the pot of water safe for anyone who walks by. Either we do the work and keep up the masks and social distancing until it's Actually Over, or COVID just keeps on doing laps and spitting out variants. And one of them will probably pick up full vaccine immunity. The liberals saying "you're immune so act like you're immune" or the First Lady saying "isn't it GREAT to take your mask off?" isn't much better than the Trump Team caricatures.

That's the real problem with your question - it leads people down the mental pathway to relaxing their individual behaviors, which is both selfish and proven wrong by 2 years of real-world data.

Why do you feel the need to dance around so much just to say that a lower individual death rate is better? Do you really need to label me a liberal or lump me in with behavior relaxers in order to emotionally handle agreeing that a lower individual death rate is good?

# ? Dec 24, 2021 21:36

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

I guess it depends if you're looking at Omicron as a single virus or the wave of disease created by Omicron.

Yes, it's unquestionably better that Omicron has a low death rate, when considering the virus itself. There's no downside there. But the "Omicron wave" has the potential to be worse than some others simply because cases are increasing so quickly. Arguably, that problem is being ignored at least in part due to the idea that it's a milder virus. Those decisions could still be made independently of perceptions of severity, and they should be, in which case a less severe virus would cause a less severe wave and everyone is happy. That's not the situation we find ourselves in.

The causal factor, more than Omicron's ability to cause severe disease, is public health authorities' lack of desire to do anything about it -- and they are the ones with agency, so they bear full responsibility. But I think it's also a mistake to think that a milder virus will necessarily result in a less consequential/severe wave, because there are other factors involved.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 22:12

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

I don�t think people understand Covid mortality very well at all, and it seems to me like many states and municipalities are taking action because of the skyrocketing case numbers. This is offset in people�s behavior so far by a general refusal to change how they celebrate holidays, which is wasn�t really different in 2020.

I did hear �omicron is probably less lethal� being stated in a fairly irresponsibly speculative way on MSNBC this morning, so it�s important to keep the message circulating that we can�t slack off now.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 22:20

Alctel: Jan 16, 2004; I love snails

FistEnergy posted:

Not if the severity reduction is minor and the transmission increase is significant. This is basic math. the overall fatalities will probably be higher. why are so many people still fatally optimistic after we've seen the "doomers" be much closer to the mark for 2 straight years?

All the stats from Canada, UK and South Africa aren't bearing this out though, hospitalisations are way less than last year still

smoobles posted:

Our country giving up on controlling a disease as contagious as the measles, which breaks through vaccines and gives up to 20% of survivors long term organ damage is, in fact, really loving bad.

The people echoing "it's less deadly!" are taking a dangerously myopic view of the pandemic, I think. Ignoring millions of maimed survivors and focusing on the death count to downplay covid is a 2020 chud move and it's shocking to see it so prevalent here these days.

edit: I might have come off like an rear end in a top hat here, so I'll clarify that I genuinely think the people here who focus on low death counts to inform their behaviors and policy opinions do so because they don't have any loved ones who were permanently hosed up by "mild" covid cases. I don't think y'all are malicious, but I bet seeing someone close to you survive covid but have their life ruined by it MIGHT change your opinion on the ol' Omicron.

Where are you getting the 20% suffering from organ damage from

# ? Dec 24, 2021 22:24

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Well, okay, the most optimistic study so far has shown a reduction of 70% in hospital admissions versus other strains. That's very good, but we've had cases increase a lot more than that. We're far worse off than we were a month ago even if it's a significantly less severe virus and/or mitigated by higher rates of immunity from vaccination and/or prior infection, and if it continues to spread at this rate, even a huge reduction in severity is not going to be enough to deal with the resulting mortality and morbidity and suffering.

We should be taking the absolute boon we've been given -- that, in practice, this appears to be mild(er) -- and use it to buy time while we address the unprecedented levels of transmission instead of pretending that the mildness is going to solve all our problems.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 22:39

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Alctel posted:

All the stats from Canada, UK and South Africa aren't bearing this out though, hospitalisations are way less than last year still

Where are you getting the 20% suffering from organ damage from

To be fair the guy said up to 20%. Could very well be 0.001% and he would still be correct.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 22:45

UCS Hellmaker: Mar 29, 2008; Toilet Rascal

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Antivaxxer bulllshit has been for decades predominatly NOT Alt-Right but deeply homed in the mommy blogger / wellness / hippy alt-left. Alt Right types are basically copying the very well established BS trains and running with it and that is much more recent in prevalence. Your assertions about antivaxxers being a signal of being facists is blatantly not true

Sidenote it's rampant on Facebook in every facet, and there was a period of time that you had new mothers actually being given resources after childbirth that had been subverted by antivaxxers that the hospitals.were sending new mothers to support groups run by them. it still happens at times but it actively made the problem worse as those fuckers were bullying and lying to scared parents that their kid was being poisoned and that vaccines made their kid more sick. As they sold them essential oils of course. Alot of antivax is tied into mlm poo poo to :smith:

# ? Dec 24, 2021 23:02

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

A big flaming stink posted:

Oocc you do get that the problem is that there is an absolute number of cases that healthcare systems can tolerate before widespread disruption and/or collapse right

if omicron's increased transmissibility causes it to breach that number then its base lethality ceases to matter

Its base lethality (and, more importantly, its base severity) absolutely does not cease to matter. This is just nonsensical hyperbole. Yes, the death numbers will go up faster if the hospital system gets overwhelmed, but that does not mean that all numbers cease to matter when hospitals run out of rooms.

enki42 posted:

Yes, if you completely exclude transmissibility, less severe is better than more severe.

The problem is you're using this as an argument against people saying this is OVERALL worse (i.e. when transmissibility is taken into consideration).

All other things being equal, less severe is better than more severe, period. A highly transmissible disease that's less severe is still better than an equally-transmissible disease that's more severe. Yes, that holds up even if hospitals get overwhelmed.

nexous posted:

This is exactly the problem. All the open Biden folks are shouting �it�s mild!� And mouthing �but more transmissible� under their breath. This leads to people think somehow that everything is gonna be okay and they can do anything they want.

Meanwhile cases are exploding, and we�re going to very quickly make a new variant that is even worse.

If you're mad at the "open Biden" folks, then loving go on Twitter to yell at them, instead of shadowboxing here at straw arguments none of us have made. It's really silly that people keep seeing hot takes on Twitter or Facebook or whatever, and then coming here to argue against those hot takes as if they had literally anything at all to do with folks in this thread. I know the environment isn't ideal for holiday enjoyment, but it's still Christmas Eve. Can't you go get drunk and watch holiday specials till you pass out or something instead of howling doomsday prophecies into the internet void all night?

# ? Dec 24, 2021 23:25

droll: Jan 9, 2020; by Azathoth

Alctel posted:

Where are you getting the 20% suffering from organ damage from

�Up to� strikes me as a really weird way to phrase it as well.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 23:27

Illuminti: Dec 3, 2005; Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

smoobles posted:

Our country giving up on controlling a disease as contagious as the measles, which breaks through vaccines and gives up to 20% of survivors long term organ damage is, in fact, really loving bad.

The people echoing "it's less deadly!" are taking a dangerously myopic view of the pandemic, I think. Ignoring millions of maimed survivors and focusing on the death count to downplay covid is a 2020 chud move and it's shocking to see it so prevalent here these days

I'm obviously not the first to point it out but this is one of the most irritating mantras out there. I am sure as we go on and if omicron does appear to be much less severe the attention will change to the 10s of millions suffering from 'near fatal mucus buildup' due to a 'unprecedented inflammation of brain adjacent tissues'

# ? Dec 24, 2021 23:42

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

For example, we are seeing now fully twice as many new daily cases in Canada as at any other point during the COVID pandemic. Even if we take best-case estimates, assuming we maintain this rate of exponential increase for even another five days, a 70% decrease in case severity will still mean we're entering our worst phase of the pandemic.

I'm absolutely thrilled that it's not as severe as Delta was. I don't think that's going to be enough for this wave to not be the worst one yet, at least here where we did reasonably well through the first waves; I'm just happy it won't be worse. I think that's a reasonable way to approach the situation -- neither optimistic nor pessimistic -- but that's just me.

EDIT: This avoids conjecture about long COVID and the relative frequency and severity of conditions, etc. It's just based on published data so far, and published cases. Let's start with that: if we don't control infections better than we're doing right now, this will be as bad or worse than previous waves in terms of acute impacts. That's just math.

# ? Dec 24, 2021 23:47

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Fritz the Horse posted:

Complex Systems Physicist

??

edit:

whoops I'm sorry, they put this in their Twitter profile:

so I'm sure their extensive publication history in epidemiology qualifies them as an expert whose Twitter threads we should pay close attention to

this isn't even hard, here's since 2020:

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=2020&q=%22bar-yam%22&hl=en&as_sdt=0,44

pay close attention to how many publications are by the New England Complex Sciences Institute (a group Bar-Yam is President of) and pre-prints

their COVID articles are mostly self-published, which does not lend well to their credibility

I am sorry, but none of this disqualifies his opinion from having weight. You don't have to like what he has to say, but you don't have to sit there and pretend he doesn't know what he is talking about with regards to some very basic observations about omicron. He's pretty much just contextualizing what we've all observed about omicron given the data available. Not a single claim in that thread is "bold" and out of line.

Judakel fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Dec 25, 2021

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:10

Inferior Third Season: Jan 15, 2005

Rust Martialis posted:

Denmark - 24 December

Cases dropped the second day in a row in Denmark across the board of vaccination status.

pre:

Denmark Covid Cases
------------------------------------
Dec 24 11,229 new cases, 527 reinfections, 134 new hospitalizations (509 total, -32), 74 ICU (+2), 39 vent (+1), 14 dead
Dec 23 12,487 new cases, 613 reinfections, 158 new hospitalizations (541 total, +17), 72 ICU (+6), 38 vent (+1), 15 dead
Dec 22 13,386 new cases, 531 reinfections, 126 new hospitalization (524 total, -1), 66 ICU (-1), 37 vent(+2), 14 dead 
Dec 21 13,558 new cases, 501 reinfections, 121 new hospitalization (526 total, -27), 67 ICU (+1), 35 vent(+2) , 17 dead
Dec 20 10,082 (553 hospitalized)
Dec 19 8,212
Dec 18 8,594
Dec 17 11,194
Dec 16 9,999
Dec 15 8,773

Since yesterday, rates per 100,000 population

pre:

                                  Unvaccinated              Partial           Full                           Unvaccinated    Partial    Full
24 DEC    New cases:                     184.1                173.0          182.1    Hospitalizations:              34.5       14.9    7.1
23 DEC    New cases:                     237.1                202.6          197.9    Hospitalizations:              35.4       16.2    7.5
22 DEC    New cases:                     257.1                198.1          211.7    Hospitalizations:              34.2       15.3    7.3
21 DEC    New cases:                     270.1                226.2          207.8    Hospitalizations:              32.9       14.3    7.5

Omicron percentage of variant tests

LAck of time to update whole table, but Omicron just crept over 60% today.

pre:

20-dec-21	59,04
19-dec-21	54,24
18-dec-21	47,90
17-dec-21	48,63
16-dec-21	45,16
15-dec-21	45,71
14-dec-21	37,97
13-dec-21	28,44
12-dec-21	22,06
11-dec-21	16,51
10-dec-21	12,79
09-dec-21	11,16
08-dec-21	10,17
07-dec-21	7,21
06-dec-21	4,87
05-dec-21	3,27
04-dec-21	2,12
03-dec-21	1,49
02-dec-21	1,40
01-dec-21	1,78

Sources:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26
https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr

I wouldn't trust the numbers between around December 23rd through about January 3rd. Who's getting tested and why and in what numbers is most likely extremely skewed compared to most weeks. It really sucks that omicron seems to be ramping up hard in a lot of western countries at Christmas time, but it is what it is.

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:11

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Or ignore the twitter hot take and just read the stats from the UK for actual evidence.

Both South Africa and the UK are pointing to for some reason a decoupling of severe outcomes with infections.

Hospitalizations in New York are presently on the rise. Hospitalizations in the UK are presently on the rise. Given that hospitalizations lag, we've yet to see whether hospitalizations have risen commensurate with the massive number of cases for a mild strain. Or not.

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:14

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Judakel posted:

Hospitalizations in New York are presently on the rise. Hospitalizations in the UK are presently on the rise. Given that hospitalizations lag, we've yet to see whether hospitalizations have risen commensurate with the massive number of cases for a mild strain. Or not.

And, honest to god, we've been through near enough to two years of this poo poo. I think we can proceed with caution for a few weeks to figure out exactly how to deal with this wave. We will get data, and we will be able to make a good, informed decision. We don't need to commit to a permanent course of action right away.

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:17

speng31b: May 8, 2010

People are sure extrapolating out some interesting stuff from the very start of an upward curve that's barely begun. Seems like omicron may be slightly less intrinsically severe, but it's rampaging through populations with a lot of pre-existing seroprevalence/vaxx, so its absolute severity is looking markedly less, right?

So on one hand, vaccines are working as advertised, but on the other hand, we've got a very infectious variant that can break through running rampant. Hard to really say how it'll play out other than wait, be cautious, and we'll see.

speng31b fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Dec 25, 2021

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:25

cant cook creole bream: Aug 15, 2011; I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

speng31b posted:

People are sure extrapolating out some interesting stuff from the very start of an upward curve that's barely begun. Seems like omicron may be slightly less intrinsically severe, but it's rampaging through populations with a lot of pre-existing seroprevalence/vaxx, so its absolute severity is looking markedly less, right?

Nope, according to the recent data, it is less severe for all ranges of people, whether they were vaccinated or not. There are still plenty of people who had no contact to covid or the vaccine. It's not just comparing numbers of now and 6 no the ago. Delta is still actively going on and it's easy to compare those numbers

Of course, for a given person you can never say if an infection would have been worse if it was Delta rather than Omicron, but that's what statistics are for.

If I do find out I have been infected with covid, I would rather hear that it's Omicron than delta. Of course. Not having an infection in the first place would be best and I wouldn't want to pass it on.

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Dec 25, 2021

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:39

CAT INTERCEPTOR: Nov 9, 2004; Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Judakel posted:

Hospitalizations in New York are presently on the rise. Hospitalizations in the UK are presently on the rise. Given that hospitalizations lag, we've yet to see whether hospitalizations have risen commensurate with the massive number of cases for a mild strain. Or not.

I posted the data for the UK and you quoted it that is showing the rise in hospitalisatiins is not matching the rise in infectiins

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:42

speng31b: May 8, 2010

cant cook creole bream posted:

Nope, according to the recent data, it is less severe for all ranges of people, whether they were vaccinated or not. There are still plenty of people who had no contact to covid or the vaccine. It's not just comparing numbers of now and 6 no the ago. Delta is still actively going on and it's easy to compare those numbers

Of course, for a given person you can never say if an infection would have been worse if it was Delta rather than Omicron, but that's what statistics are for.

If I do find out I have been infected with covid, I would rather hear that it's Omicron than delta. Of course. Not having an infection in the first place would be best and I wouldn't want to pass it on.

Is this interpretation of the imperial study data super wrong?

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1474027198763966515

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:44

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

cant cook creole bream posted:

Nope, according to the recent data, it is less severe for all ranges of people, whether they were vaccinated or not. There are still plenty of people who had no contact to covid or the vaccine. It's not just comparing numbers of now and 6 no the ago. Delta is still actively going on and it's easy to compare those numbers

Agreed. We do have some data, we have no reason to believe it's particularly bad data because a bunch of independent datasets and studies are showing the same thing, more or less. The question is: what do we make of this data? What do we do with it?

Assuming we have the greatest reduction in severity that's yet been shown to be possible, we still need to control infections. I really, really wish we had another option; I don't think we do. I'm not super worried about what will happen to me if I get the virus, being in generally good health and boosted, but I am worried about having to seek medical attention for literally any other reason in a month or so at this rate, even if percentage-wise fewer COVID patients need to go to the hospital. During previous waves, there were cancer patients with operable tumors that had surgeries delayed and are now terminal. There have been people who've died because of the lack of availability of EMS. And, of course, for those who do still suffer severe cases from a less severe virus, that's not good either.

We do not need to be fatalistic about this. We know there are interventions that will prevent or reduce the rates of infection, and many honestly don't suck that much. N95s instead of cloth masks. Mandated CO2 monitors and ventilation requirements for public spaces. We need to move on those. Imagine if we can reduce infection to the point that the reduced severity of omicron results in a much less damaging wave in every sense. Is that not what we should be aiming for?

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:47

cant cook creole bream: Aug 15, 2011; I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

speng31b posted:

Is this interpretation of the imperial study data super wrong?

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1474027198763966515

Yes, we discussed this further up. Don't read Feigl-Ding.

Honestly, I am not that worried about Omicron since my life won't change compared to delta. I am doing barely anything involving people and I can't really isulate more than this, so there's no real need for an adjustment to my strategies. The numbers will rise again, but at this point I don't really care about abstract numbers anymore. And I've certainly given up convincing others to be as reclusive as myself.

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Dec 25, 2021

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:49

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

PT6A posted:

And, honest to god, we've been through near enough to two years of this poo poo. I think we can proceed with caution for a few weeks to figure out exactly how to deal with this wave. We will get data, and we will be able to make a good, informed decision. We don't need to commit to a permanent course of action right away.

Who, in this thread, is saying that we should throw open the doors and end all COVID restrictions immediately because Omicron data so far is showing it to be somewhat less severe? This is a serious question, because as far as I can tell, there's a ton of people saying that we shouldn't end NPIs altogether, and absolutely no one at all saying that we should end NPIs altogether.

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:56

cant cook creole bream: Aug 15, 2011; I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Main Paineframe posted:

Who, in this thread, is saying that we should throw open the doors and end all COVID restrictions immediately because Omicron data so far is showing it to be somewhat less severe? This is a serious question, because as far as I can tell, there's a ton of people saying that we shouldn't end NPIs altogether, and absolutely no one at all saying that we should end NPIs altogether.

Yeah, that is such a ridiculous notion, while Delta is still around! Even if 100% of all Omicron cases where benign that would be a bad idea.

There's no argument for breaking down all NPIs. But us there something different which has to be done in order to stop the spread compared to delta? If not, we have to continue the same exact things.

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Dec 25, 2021

# ? Dec 25, 2021 00:58

speng31b: May 8, 2010

cant cook creole bream posted:

Yes, we discussed this further up. Don't read Feigl-Ding.

I dug through your post history and read upthread a bit but couldn't find specifically why Feigl-Ding is a Feigl-Don't. Is it because they're making a bunch of wrong assumptions to unskew the population data and arrive at closer intrinsic severity? That was the main thing that stood out as fishy. Or maybe that it doesn't really matter why it's lower observed severity as long as there's enough data to say it really is (we have that now?)

# ? Dec 25, 2021 01:00

cant cook creole bream: Aug 15, 2011; I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

speng31b posted:

I dug through your post history and read upthread a bit but couldn't find specifically why Feigl-Ding is a Feigl-Don't. Is it because they're making a bunch of wrong assumptions to unskew the population data and arrive at closer intrinsic severity? That was the main thing that stood out as fishy. Or maybe that it doesn't really matter why it's lower observed severity as long as there's enough data to say it really is (we have that now?)

Sorry, I personally did not try to unskew that guy, but from what it's posted here, he consistently posts the most pessimistic viewpoints just to cause twitter drama.
In this case it's quite significant. As Owl of cream cheese explained, his tweet is cherrypicking that study to exclude the data points which are against his assumptions. He helpfully marked those as purple.
Intuitively, people associate the probability to having to stay in an hospital a lot with the eagerness of the disease. So, unless these evil hospitals arbitrarily kick out people suffering from Omicron, there's no reason to exclude that data point. Except that it does not fit into his story.

The red cases he point as significant are only the probabilities of some forms of symptoms. These look similar, but there's a huge difference between a person who coughs a few times and one who does it for hours at a time. I'd imagine both would end up in the same group, while only one gets put into the ER.

If Omicron/Delta is the difference between those scenarios, it's a bit more significant than 2%-12%.

In face this most recent article claims a reduction. Of hospitalizations by 70 percent. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eu...report-suggests
In other words, according to that, delta is 3 times as likely to put you into a hospital.

And yes the increased transmisibility is relevant. We went through that enough times by now.

cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Dec 25, 2021

# ? Dec 25, 2021 01:08

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

I posted the data for the UK and you quoted it that is showing the rise in hospitalisatiins is not matching the rise in infectiins

I said that it is too early to say whether the rise will be commensurate with a mild strain.

# ? Dec 25, 2021 01:25

speng31b: May 8, 2010

cant cook creole bream posted:

Sorry, I personally did not try to unskew that guy, but from what it's posted here, he consistently posts the most pessimistic viewpoints just to cause twitter drama.
In this case it's quite significant. As Owl of cream cheese explained, his tweet is cherrypicking that study to exclude the data points which are against his assumptions. He helpfully marked those as purple.
Intuitively, people associate the probability to having to stay in an hospital a lot with the eagerness of the disease. So, unless these evil hospitals arbitrarily kick out people suffering from Omicron, there's no reason to exclude that data point. Except that it does not fit into his story.

The red cases he point as significant are only the probabilities of some forms of symptoms. These look similar, but there's a huge difference between a person who coughs a few times and one who does it for hours at a time. I'd imagine both would end up in the same group, while only one gets put into the ER.

If Omicron/Delta is the difference between those scenarios, it's a bit more significant than 2%-12%.

In face this most recent article claims a reduction. Of hospitalizations by 70 percent. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eu...report-suggests
In other words, according to that, delta is 3 times as likely to put you into a hospital.

And yes the increased transmisibility is relevant. We went through that enough times by now.

I can see how that 2-12% number doesn't make sense if it's based on cases that showed up to the hospital but didn't stick around having a smaller corrected severity gap.

70% reduction in case hospitalizations is also promising. I guess what still remains to be seen is absolute hospitalizations and how that does or doesn't continue to scale over the next weeks / months, especially given how rapidly omicron spreads and how protection from vaccines / boosters seems to be tapering off.

I guess the behavior model doesn't really change that much either way unless we have some more data.

Judakel posted:

I said that it is too early to say whether the rise will be commensurate with a mild strain.

Interestingly, the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ data for all of UK doesn't look particularly scary, but filtering for just London is a different story and shows a pretty bad-looking upwards trajectory of total hospitalizations. It probably is too early to really speculate about what happens next.

speng31b fucked around with this message at 02:17 on Dec 25, 2021

# ? Dec 25, 2021 01:54

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

speng31b posted:

Interestingly, the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ data for all of UK doesn't look particularly scary, but filtering for just London is a different story and shows a pretty bad-looking upwards trajectory of total hospitalizations. It probably is too early to really speculate about what happens next.

I wonder what the age distribution in London is and how it compares to the rest of the country. You would think they would be younger, but maybe the numbers are just too great for it to matter?

# ? Dec 25, 2021 02:23

speng31b: May 8, 2010

Judakel posted:

I wonder what the age distribution in London is and how it compares to the rest of the country. You would think they would be younger, but maybe the numbers are just too great for it to matter?

It seems like it's got to be just the population density and omicron's insane transmissibility, so it will be interesting to see how that plays in terms of when it peaks and what happens next

# ? Dec 25, 2021 02:34

Bashez: Jul 19, 2004

I think places like France and Italy are going to be very instructive. It looked like both countries were suffering from delta waves with rising deaths before omicron swooped in.

# ? Dec 25, 2021 02:51

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

Mellow Seas posted:

“Up to” working vastly harder than even that -60 on the Y axis was.

Like I know they’re young and world class athletes but at this point like of the pro sports leagues have been in and out of Covid protocols and almost none have had a noticeable decline - and considering the level they play at even a slight decline in physical ability would be very noticeable.

We can’t ignore the long term effects of Covid but that’s not a reason to overstate them by an order of magnitude.

Um are you familiar at all with what Myles Garrett has spoken about regarding long covid?

# ? Dec 25, 2021 03:27

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

A big flaming stink posted:

Um are you familiar at all with what Myles Garrett has spoken about regarding long covid?

Could you maybe just, like, tell us and link a source?

# ? Dec 25, 2021 03:48

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

How are u posted:

Could you maybe just, like, tell us and link a source?

He got covid and it's dramatically ruined his season. But it's a weird example of "long covid" because he later recovered and it's beating a bunch of records now.

Basically he is the story a lot of people will face: covid symptoms that last more than two weeks that leaves you at professional athlete level of fitness a year later (well maybe not the second part, but long lingering symptoms that clear eventually)

The original point is right, sports would notice 20% of people becoming debilitated

# ? Dec 25, 2021 04:14

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# ? May 27, 2024 09:25

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

The original point is right, sports would notice 20% of people becoming debilitated

Best not to ask questions about the current NFL season

# ? Dec 25, 2021 04:51

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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