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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Zodium posted:zero covid has to work. Zero COVID cannot fail, it can only BE failed? Mother Nature is smarter than you.
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Dec 31, 2021 08:25
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| # ? May 27, 2024 16:51 |
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i think you’ll find “Mother Nature” doesn’t particularly care whether we manage to execute on the only viable strategy or not.
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Dec 31, 2021 08:28
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Suzera posted:Even if Omicron doesn't kill anyone, just the sheer amount of people bedridden seems like it'll cause some amount of logistical issues in the US next month. What foods would you recommend that don't require electricity to prepare? Obviously something that can be stored without refrigeration, but also doesn't require electricity or really any kind of heating. I do have a little camp stove and propane bottles, but let's assume most goons reading this thread don't have an alternative if the power grid goes down.
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Dec 31, 2021 08:31
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maybe a bit tinfoil here, but sometimes I actually get the feeling Mother Nature is actively trying to kill us, and goes to incredible efforts to do so, and I’m just really thankful we invented stuff like society and science and statistics to control and contain those efforts.
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Dec 31, 2021 08:40
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Rust Martialis posted:Zero COVID cannot fail, it can only BE failed? i think the point is that if zero covid does not work, eventually the odds are good it mutates into a spanish flu-strength variant IE it must work because we're hosed if it doesnt
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Dec 31, 2021 08:44
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Fritz the Horse posted:What foods would you recommend that don't require electricity to prepare? Obviously something that can be stored without refrigeration, but also doesn't require electricity or really any kind of heating. I mean if the power grid goes down I do have a little camp stove and propane bottles. Crackers? MREs? MREs seem viable, but I haven't really researched them much and they're more expensive. I'm mostly fine with just cracking open a bottle of sunflower kernels plus some raisins for a meal a while so I didn't look for anything particularly exotic. If I had infinite money I'd also have some meat jerky to help make sure protein and maybe some gaps in micronutrients are covered beyond what's in the soup cans. I am not a nutritionist so this probably isn't very optimized, but at least it's not just a bunch of nutrient empty carbs. E: You probably want to have at least some nuts or olives or else get some other decent source of fats in your supplies. A lot of the rest listed here is mostly carbs. Suzera fucked around with this message at 09:02 on Dec 31, 2021 |
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Dec 31, 2021 08:44
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A big flaming stink posted:i think the point is that if zero covid does not work, eventually the odds are good it mutates into a spanish flu-strength variant The likelihood of that happening is both slim and not really dependent on any one country. Even the people who promote Zero Covid or Else do so because they see the alternative as selling immunocompromised people up the river that they refuse to give up on.
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Dec 31, 2021 08:57
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I forgot about the canned olives. Also not a carb food that's pretty easy to eat.
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Dec 31, 2021 09:01
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Suzera posted:I got a variety of nuts, dried and canned fruits and vegetables, beans, crackers, canned soups (US ones at least can be eaten uncooked if need be as long as the can is intact), as well as some vitamins. I also have some spices, condiments and honey. Breads and tortillas can store for a while if you keep an extra loaf or package around and eat the older one first every time. Thanks that's helpful. I have a lot of that stuff in the cupboard already but I should probably stock up for the coming few weeks/months. Don't forget water, that's even more important! Personally I find soft-sided cubitainers pretty convenient, I have a few like this: https://www.amazon.com/GSI-Outdoors-Collapsible-Water-20-Liter/dp/B01FKJXEQM Just an example I'm not recommending any specific brand. The nice thing about cubitainers like that is they're collapsible and soft-sided but also fairly convenient size to move around. You should consider keeping a few full ones around for storm, earthquake, hurricane etc preparedness. And then since they're collapsible you can keep more empty ones in storage in case you are anticipating a large event like a COVID surge. That way they're not taking up extra space when they're not in use.
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Dec 31, 2021 09:02
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Craptacular! posted:The likelihood of that happening is both slim and not really dependent on any one country. Even the people who promote Zero Covid or Else do so because they see the alternative as selling immunocompromised people up the river that they refuse to give up on. If COVID becomes a recurrent thing like influenza, which seems quite possible, I would think we would need reliable antiviral treatments to support the immunocompromised because obviously vaccinations will be of limited use. Possibly convalescent serum or monoclonal therapy. But for now I would agree stricter lockdowns are about the only thing to help them. I am frankly expecting Denmark to tighten things down more but they are apparently wait-and-see.
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Dec 31, 2021 09:12
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anyone know what to do with 600lbs of rancid olive oil and, uh, a lot of beans??
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Dec 31, 2021 09:13
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Herstory Begins Now posted:anyone know what to do with 600lbs of rancid olive oil and, uh, a lot of beans?? Ask in UKMT re: beans
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Dec 31, 2021 09:14
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got a bad investment tip from the old covid thread and it turns out you can't just flush olive oil
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Dec 31, 2021 09:18
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it doesn’t have to get worse. these waves are very serious recurring public health crises with localized system collapses. here. now. today. we can’t sustain this and we can’t just keep hoping it will get mild enough. there’s plenty of room for it to get worse, like it just did twice, and we’re giving it all the space it needs to get there, but it doesn’t have to. that would just make the bad situation much worse.
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Dec 31, 2021 09:21
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Herstory Begins Now posted:anyone know what to do with 600lbs of rancid olive oil and, uh, a lot of beans??
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Dec 31, 2021 09:23
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How long do you have to have olive oil for for it to go rancid?
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Dec 31, 2021 09:51
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Josef bugman posted:How long do you have to have olive oil for for it to go rancid? Googling days 18-24 months from pressing. Have the Americans all gone to bed now?
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Dec 31, 2021 09:55
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Zodium posted:maybe a bit tinfoil here, but sometimes I actually get the feeling Mother Nature is actively trying to kill us, and goes to incredible efforts to do so, and I’m just really thankful we invented stuff like society and science and statistics to control and contain those efforts. One day, through collaborative effort, we well finally manage to subdue and eventually kill Mother Nature, humanities oldest enemy.
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Dec 31, 2021 10:02
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cant cook creole bream posted:One day, through collaborative effort, we well finally manage to subdue and eventually kill Mother Nature, humanities oldest enemy. Actually I misquoted Orgel: "Evolution is cleverer than you are."
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Dec 31, 2021 10:09
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Herstory Begins Now posted:anyone know what to do with 600lbs of rancid olive oil and, uh, a lot of beans?? It might be a funny joke to you but I think we should all be well-prepared for the next few weeks or months. Omicron hit South Africa hard and fast and it's doing the same to the UK. It's entirely reasonable to stockpile food and water for the Omicron wave or literally... any natural disaster: If you're on the East or Gulf Coast of the US you should have food and water ready for a hurricane or severe storms. If you're on the West Coast you should also consider prepardeness for earthquakes or, in the PNW, volcanoes.
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Dec 31, 2021 10:15
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cant cook creole bream posted:One day, through collaborative effort, we well finally manage to subdue and eventually kill Mother Nature, humanities oldest enemy. we have toiled through the ages, ten thousand generations of humans standing on the shoulders of one another, our labors transcending time and space itself in a behavioral system of such perfect and infinite complexity that it pains my inner eye to behold its complete majesty, a system which works in teleological fashion for one singular purpose, towards one singular goal, and at last, we stand on the cusp of ultimate victory over our ancient enemy. the hour is nigh for Mother Nature. 
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Dec 31, 2021 10:18
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speng31b posted:All of UK isn't looking so bad yet but hospitalizations in London aren't looking great by the numbers. The hospitalizations in NY/NJ are a bit steeper but I don't think I'd look at what's happening in London and see it as great news quite yet. There are two arguments you can make about this, or have been in the news. Firstly, the rate of discharge is effected by Christmas, so the numbers might be distorted, but that does mean we don't really know what the actual situation is, bad or good. Secondly, while Hospitilisations have started to move around the 3rd December where the curve starts, both mechanical ventilation beds and deaths are so much flatter comparatively. I know people will make an argument about delays, but we talking about a month now since the hospital figures started to curve. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion%26areaName=London#card-patients_in_mechanical_ventilation_beds
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Dec 31, 2021 10:27
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Rust Martialis posted:If COVID becomes a recurrent thing like influenza, which seems quite possible, I would think we would need reliable antiviral treatments to support the immunocompromised because obviously vaccinations will be of limited use. Possibly convalescent serum or monoclonal therapy. But for now I would agree stricter lockdowns are about the only thing to help them. I am frankly expecting Denmark to tighten things down more but they are apparently wait-and-see. Oh, I think everyone is forgetting about immunocompromised people. Everyone's willing to write off the elderly (they would have died any day now anyways!), and a lot of comorbidities (should have been more healthy!) but there's no easy answer for most immunocompromised people. I can't even get a test with symptoms in Ontario, despite tests supposedly being available to "high risk" groups (which I'm not a member of anymore I guess).
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Dec 31, 2021 14:23
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MikeC posted:Assume a Tau variant arises, infects 100% of the population but causes 0 symptoms in every person. Each and every single hospitalization will now be a COVID case. Do we have a COVID crisis in this hypothetical world? This is why it is critical to start teasing apart the data. South Africa is reporting 60% of their COVID numbers are incidental, possibly higher in the UK. See my previous posts for the sources. Given the Ontario numbers, while I think it's fine to try and make an attempt to categorize incidental COVID infections from admitted to hospital due to COVID, I can't see any way that that doesn't become irrelevant pretty quickly unless the categorization is bullshit. We're seeing clear exponential growth in hospitalizations now, so the incidental rate should be a fairly small and shrinking proportion. If it's strictly incidental, you wouldn't expect to see exponential growth in total hospitalizations. So if there is exponential growth in hospitalizations, cases due to COVID are going to quickly overwhelm the cases with COVID, or you're incorrectly categorizing some people as with COVID instead of due to COVID (or at the very least, COVID is a factor in their hospitalization).
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Dec 31, 2021 14:28
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/31/south-africa-omicron-coronavirus-peak/quote:Omicron has passed peak in South Africa, causing relatively few deaths and hospitalizations, authorities say It's flatly not too early anymore. There will be death and stress on many healthcare systems, but it's not the end of the world, and the Omicron wave is likely to peak and recede in the U.S. by mid-January. Also seeing a lot more press about how hospitalization counts are getting muddy because of those hospitalized with COVID vs. those hospitalized because of COVID, especially amongst children.
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Dec 31, 2021 14:59
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It's going to peak quickly, so instead of worrying about long-term restrictions, why not just do a short, sharp lockdown to hopefully reduce the risk associated with peak hospitalizations, since people getting sick is going to gently caress a lot of things up anyway? The fact that it's already going down in South Africa seems to recommend the introduction of restrictions, precisely because it's something we won't have to live with long-term.
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Dec 31, 2021 15:01
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PT6A posted:It's going to peak quickly, so instead of worrying about long-term restrictions, why not just do a short, sharp lockdown to hopefully reduce the risk associated with peak hospitalizations, since people getting sick is going to gently caress a lot of things up anyway? Because the population would respond terribly, at least in the United States. The speakers with bullhorns at the protests would be pointing to the South Africa data as they railed against the lockdown and restriction.
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Dec 31, 2021 15:04
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A big flaming stink posted:
Except thats not necessarily true at all?
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Dec 31, 2021 15:11
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it’s not true as long as there won’t be new variants or deadly airborne pathogens. otherwise, it’s just a question of how long it takes us to lose the game. this is the second deadly airborne pathogens to hit a home run on us in a century, with multiple close calls in the last 20 years alone. zero covid is zero future airborne pathogens. evolution is not magic, but if we keep playing stupid games, we will keep winning stupid prizes. it’s just a hard evolutionary fact that the laws of probability bend for nothing and no one.
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Dec 31, 2021 15:37
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If that were true then I would wonder how we've gotten so lucky that the common cold hadn't evolved into super-AIDS and killed us all centuries ago. Scary times.
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Dec 31, 2021 15:46
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because it doesn’t have to. it doesn’t care about anything except not killing us before it reproduces in a new host. do you think there’s a limit to how many of these we can generate? that there is a hidden reservoir from which we can draw resources and workers to absorb even an extra flu, long term? we literally can’t “accept” this except in some incredibly facile sense of the word. we can only fail to contain it.
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Dec 31, 2021 16:00
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Sadly it’s all for not because the US frankly does not care. Biden has shown he is just as evil and warped as Trump when it comes to dealing with covid. Example: https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1476588594127122439?s=20 Just absolutely sickening when, according to the studies coming out of SA, Omicron impacts the young just as bad as Delta. All the while this is happening: https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1476754432348016643?s=20
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Dec 31, 2021 16:04
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Zodium posted:because it doesn’t have to. it doesn’t care about anything except not killing us before it reproduces in a new host. do you think there’s a limit to how many of these we can generate? that there is a hidden reservoir from which we can draw resources and workers to absorb even an extra flu, long term? we literally can’t “accept” this except in some incredibly facile sense of the word. we can only fail to contain it. If "there's a chance that there will be a super-AIDS variant that will kill us all" means that it's inevitable and we should act like every virus is super AIDS, why doesn't "there's a chance that there will be a variant with an R0 of over 9000 that will infect everyone on earth in 15 minutes" mean the same and so zero-whatever is hopeless? I'm not saying that we shouldn't have mitigations, but they should match the virus / variant we're actually dealing with, not some theoretical variant. enki42 fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Dec 31, 2021 |
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Dec 31, 2021 16:05
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enki42 posted:If "there's a chance that there will be a super-AIDS variant that will kill us all" means that it's inevitable and we should act like every virus is super AIDS, why doesn't "there's a chance that there will be a variant with an R0 of over 9000 that will infect everyone on earth in 15 minutes" and so zero-whatever is hopeless? We know that is impossible, but lab work suggests there are versions of the corona spike that stick like nothing's biz to ACE2. Some really nasty variants are possible in evolutionary space.
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Dec 31, 2021 16:06
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enki42 posted:If "there's a chance that there will be a super-AIDS variant that will kill us all" means that it's inevitable and we should act like every virus is super AIDS, why doesn't "there's a chance that there will be a variant with an R0 of over 9000 that will infect everyone on earth in 15 minutes" and so zero-whatever is hopeless? I mean, there could be a meteor hurtling towards Earth that nobody noticed and that will kill us all. It's possible, man! As usual, the best thing to do is get vaccinated, wear your mask, limit your exposure risk to what you're comfortable with. Plenty of goons are popping positive with Omi now, so far they've been OK. Let go of things you can't control and focus on making it through each day. We're going to make it.
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Dec 31, 2021 16:09
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enki42 posted:I'm not saying that we shouldn't have mitigations, but they should match the virus / variant we're actually dealing with, not some theoretical variant. Speaking of mitigations, what are the mitigation efforts for the huge super spreader event known as New Years. Has Biden stated anything? Has the Dem leaders of New York City canceled the festivities like last year to flatten the curve?
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Dec 31, 2021 16:10
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enki42 posted:with COVID instead of due to COVID I remember when this was a right wing talking point to try to downplay the danger of Covid. If it's making it's way across the political divide, that's not great.
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Dec 31, 2021 16:14
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enki42 posted:If "there's a chance that there will be a super-AIDS variant that will kill us all" means that it's inevitable and we should act like every virus is super AIDS, why doesn't "there's a chance that there will be a variant with an R0 of over 9000 that will infect everyone on earth in 15 minutes" mean the same and so zero-whatever is hopeless? this is a recipe for failure because, like Rust said, evolution is smarter than us. this hubris that is driving our failure here. if we give it the space, evolution is simply faster than we can do science and determine a proportionate response—hence the precautionary principle. case in point: we are two years into this and are still failing to know much of anything for more than a few months, and usually a few months too late, at that. whether a single airborne super aids occurs or we just keep adding another flu every so many years makes no real difference. and we still don’t know if this is a new flu or new polio, for that matter. new flu is the best case here! the desirable outcome! play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
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Dec 31, 2021 16:21
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Speaking of mitigations, what are the mitigation efforts for the huge super spreader event known as New Years. That would bankrupt bars, so in a compromise everyone has agreed to close the bars new years morning until football games start
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Dec 31, 2021 16:24
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Weasling Weasel posted:There are two arguments you can make about this, or have been in the news. Firstly, the rate of discharge is effected by Christmas, so the numbers might be distorted, but that does mean we don't really know what the actual situation is, bad or good. Secondly, while Hospitilisations have started to move around the 3rd December where the curve starts, both mechanical ventilation beds and deaths are so much flatter comparatively. I know people will make an argument about delays, but we talking about a month now since the hospital figures started to curve. Yeah, I get that. I'm cautioning against using London's numbers as evidence of "good news" in the sense of "SA and London are looking good." We don't really know. We know that by the numbers London's hospitalizations look like they're going up somewhat steeply.
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Dec 31, 2021 16:24
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