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Professional paper Magic is like if the NFL had the offensive team be in charge of their own 1st down markers. The idea that people play for any significant stakes in large tournaments and get to shuffle and deal their own deck is nuts.
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Jan 11, 2022 01:57
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whydirt posted:Professional paper Magic is like if the NFL had the offensive team be in charge of their own 1st down markers. The opponent is always the last one to shuffle.
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Jan 11, 2022 02:01
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whydirt posted:Professional paper Magic is like if the NFL had the offensive team be in charge of their own 1st down markers. Almost exactly as nuts as them getting to shuffle their opponent's deck! And yet every time a shuffle cheater was exposed, people were somehow in denial and then shocked. I think there was a week when two high-profile players got busted (Jared Boettcher and someone else?) and Kibler was just like, "call them 'witch hunts' all you want, but they have a tendency to turn up actual witches."
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Jan 11, 2022 02:02
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Paul Zuvella posted:The opponent is always the last one to shuffle. It's Tom Brady! Everyone just taps the deck when he presents. I don't want to get dragged on Twitter for not trusting him. Or worse: bending his cards!
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Jan 11, 2022 02:05
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I am sure if someone looked at the online only tournament data vs the paper data for certain players, it would be incredibly different win rates. Even for things like the pro tour. You get deniability as decks/formats/pairings/general variance will , but I am sure the data would show a few obvious blips. Yuuya Watanabe kind of took all the good faith I had.
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Jan 11, 2022 02:07
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It would be hard to show with statistical certainty that a better winrate in paper is due to cheating, vs. facing weaker opponents or decks or both, or even just players focusing harder/trying to win more. You'd have to show that the population of opponents, and how they play, and what they play, is statistically comparable in the different formats. Also I don't think anyone actually shuffles 60-card decks to true randomness in paper, because it takes too long, whereas in electronic formats, we can reasonably treat every shuffle as truly random. That said, there probably are ways to raise some suspicions via data mining in paper formats that you could then confirm by watching camera footage or something.
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Jan 11, 2022 02:12
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I'm sure there are people with worse winrates online just due to things like getting a lot of equity in paper from reading their opponent's body language. So that muddles the question a fair bit. There are also people who have worse winrates online because they're cheating in paper.
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Jan 11, 2022 02:18
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Paul Zuvella posted:why the hell are so many people, including a mod, talking about football in the magic thread lmao Previews showed a card named Superb Owl Netsuke
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Jan 11, 2022 02:21
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I don't play paper but if I did, I might have a better winrate because I'm paying more attention; or a worse winrate because I'm less likely to keep playing an opponent who is physically repellant. Or I might have a better winrate because I take the in-person play more seriously and bring a better deck; or it might be a worse winrate because I'm less likely to spend real money constructing a good deck, than spend the free tokens I accumulated on Arena to build a good virtual deck.
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Jan 11, 2022 02:22
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Sickening posted:I am sure if someone looked at the online only tournament data vs the paper data for certain players, it would be incredibly different win rates. Even for things like the pro tour. You get deniability as decks/formats/pairings/general variance will , but I am sure the data would show a few obvious blips. Yuuya Watanabe kind of took all the good faith I had. One of the top players in our scene definitely was hoping I would put my Urza Saga constructs in the bin when he blocked with his. We sat there for about 30 seconds after he said no affects, and I said same. I then had to count to him all my artifacts; I had 7 and he had 3.
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Jan 11, 2022 02:25
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You'd want to look at land ratio consistency, so you capture the games where both players were cheating.
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Jan 11, 2022 02:26
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The Shortest Path posted:Get in the Eva, Shinji Thassa is in the exile zone and all is right in the world.
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Jan 11, 2022 03:42
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We should have more football posts in the this thread but for each one you have to provide a magic simile.
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Jan 11, 2022 03:48
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Leperflesh posted:It would be hard to show with statistical certainty that a better winrate in paper is due to cheating, vs. facing weaker opponents or decks or both, or even just players focusing harder/trying to win more. You'd have to show that the population of opponents, and how they play, and what they play, is statistically comparable in the different formats. Even something as simple as match data that wizards already has been keeping for decades is probably enough to find interesting outliers. Like if you took someone like Reid Duke (who I hope is clean) and compared his first 5 rounds of grand prixs win % and compared it to his peers, is anyone going to stand out with insanely odd winrates? I suspect a careful cheater is probably going to do it less as he goes against stronger opponents, so most obvious data is going to come from early matches. I would pay good money to have access to that data. Jared B (one of the shuffles cheaters) had an abysmal winrate on camera vs off camera. So much so that people found his rise super odd during the scg tour. Turns out if your opponent draws nothing but lands you can do very well. 
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Jan 11, 2022 03:53
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Sickening posted:Jared B (one of the shuffles cheaters) had an abysmal winrate on camera vs off camera. So much so that people found his rise super odd during the scg tour. Turns out if your opponent draws nothing but lands you can do very well. Boettcher was extra conspicuous because that was around the time MODO had gotten tweaked juuuuust enough to be tolerable for most Magic pros to play, so "new faces" were generally people who'd been having MODO success and had that motivate them to do more big paper tournaments. Boettcher, of course, had no MODO success. He just went from "averaging third or fourth place at the LGS" to "Rookie of the Year!" And, yeah, even before he was busted cheating on camera, a lot of pros had their suspicions roused by his feature matches, since his poor play would stand out in comparison to his opponents. And there were still people saying, "see, this is why this game is so great! One day it can just click for you and you're playing at the highest levels!"
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Jan 11, 2022 04:15
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i didn't see it in amidst all the football chat but they're making a pauper panel so that bans don't take loving forever anymore https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/announcing-pauper-format-panel-2022-01-10
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Jan 11, 2022 11:16
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Idk anything about jared b beyond the general stuff, but i watched a video about a game he had against tom ross and its incredible the mind that goes to the table with daze in his deck and still does a shuffle cheat to give his opponents lands
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Jan 11, 2022 11:45
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mono white beatdown in cube is soo good. Went 2-0 with it yesterday with my last matching going 1-2 cause of some unlucky draws. Its absolutely bonkers that the design team thought it was perfectly acceptable to have stone forge mystic and batterskull in standard together for a period of time.
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Jan 11, 2022 14:37
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flatluigi posted:i didn't see it in amidst all the football chat but they're making a pauper panel so that bans don't take loving forever anymore Just a precursor to Pauper Horizons next fall.
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Jan 11, 2022 15:02
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HootTheOwl posted:Just a precursor to Pauper Horizons next fall. And the introduction of the new "Mythic Common" rarity! So we can print powerful effects without skewing the limited environment, of course!
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Jan 11, 2022 15:08
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Good to see that despite putting together a dedicated group for looking at the pauper format, Play Design is still going to get the final say even though they supposedly don't have time to look at the format themselves. I'm sure this won't lead to anyone on Play Design being pissy about their pet card turning out way overpowered and insisting it remain unbanned.
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Jan 11, 2022 15:15
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Grifter posted:We should have more football posts in the this thread but for each one you have to provide a magic simile. No the gently caress we shouldn't. Personally I would rather hear Buzkashi scores/highlights because at least that could be interesting on some level I have a hard enough time pretending to care at family gatherings I'm def not doing it here
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Jan 11, 2022 15:17
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also not everyone is american here
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Jan 11, 2022 15:20
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Goa Tse-tung posted:also not everyone is american here then instead of talking about football (handegg), they can talk about football (football). everybody wins!
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Jan 11, 2022 15:31
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Sickening posted:I am sure if someone looked at the online only tournament data vs the paper data for certain players, it would be incredibly different win rates. Even for things like the pro tour. You get deniability as decks/formats/pairings/general variance will , but I am sure the data would show a few obvious blips. Yuuya Watanabe kind of took all the good faith I had. i believe someone did this for saito when he was up for the hof and saw how he very rarely timed out on modo compared to all of the unintentional draws he was getting in paper play. (then for a control they compared him to nassif to show someone who was notorious for slow play, but that clearly wasn't doing it to cheat since he gets tons of timeout losses on modo) then you've got someone like marcio carvalho who is both a notorious cheater but also dominated in the arena pts jpmeyer fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Jan 11, 2022 |
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Jan 11, 2022 15:41
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Color Identities of teams in the NFC North: Bears: Mardu Lions: Esper Packers: Jund Vikings: Naya
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Jan 11, 2022 15:48
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wrong thread
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Jan 11, 2022 15:51
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flatluigi posted:i didn't see it in amidst all the football chat but they're making a pauper panel so that bans don't take loving forever anymore I always assumed that part of the point of pauper was that it was a format WOTC was forced to ignore. Then the video starts out with Gavin describing two cards the intentionally injected into the format that had to be banned. The obvious solution was stop injecting cards into the format, but I guess that doesn’t make WOTC money.
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Jan 11, 2022 15:59
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I dont think there is a single thing about pauper that makes wotc any amount of money they really care about.
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Jan 11, 2022 16:05
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HootTheOwl posted:Just a precursor to Pauper Horizons next fall. I'd buy it if they reprint loving Lotus Petal and any other common that costs more than $5 in the set. Put Petal, Preordain, Priest of Titania, Ash Barrens and the Urza lands in the rare slot for all I care, just give us a mass market meaningful reprint of the drat things. Downshift a few cards too, like the Mirage fetches and also complete that cycle while they're at it Edit: Oubliette, Coumbajj Witches, Chittering Rats, Gray Merchant, Exhume, Ulamogs Crusher, Nihht's Whisper and the one mana cycling lands would be nice reprints too Silhouette fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Jan 11, 2022 |
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Jan 11, 2022 16:06
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Goa Tse-tung posted:also not everyone is american here Well I am and that means I get every crazy whim catered to immediately! Seriously though, this is my happy place with a minimum of sportsball chat. I get that sports are a thing and my dream is impossible but after a page or two I'm going to get cranky about it because unlike the rest of sports balls fandom I can't bore you or make you all uncomfortable with MTG chat Silhouette posted:Put Petal, Preordain, Priest of Titania, Ash Barrens and the Urza lands in the rare slot for all I care, just give us a mass market meaningful reprint of the drat things. Is ash barrens expensive again already? I second this but please add ashes to ashes and more REB/BEB type cards as well. PleasantDirge fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Jan 11, 2022 |
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Jan 11, 2022 16:06
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PleasantDirge posted:Well I am and that means I get every crazy whim catered to immediately! I dont think its a lot to ask for to not have mod participated, multi page sportsball derails in a magic the gathering thread on a forum that has a full on forum dedicated to hand egg discussions.
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Jan 11, 2022 16:09
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Owlbear Camus posted:Color Identities of teams in the NFC North: The Packers are GW, Team colors are green and gold, and Green Bay is 75% white. Combined that makes them Gold. Lions are Blue with an Artifact (modern silver artifacts) theme. Vikings are Colorless as some weird refrence to purple being the alleged sixth color of magic which became eldrazi {C}. Bears Have to be U+{RY} But yellow isn't a color, so making them just Izzet is very Bearsy in that of course they hosed it up.
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Jan 11, 2022 16:10
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I'm not american and don't follow any of their silly american sports but I still found the discussion interesting, and I don't think it outstayed its welcome. Except the bit where a couple of posters were just talking about it without actually saying what happened, as though they assumed everyone else in the thread had also been watching it live and already knew exactly what went down. That felt pretty americentric and needlessly exclusive on their part.
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Jan 11, 2022 16:10
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Huxley posted:And the introduction of the new "Mythic Common" rarity! So we can print powerful effects without skewing the limited environment, of course! It's going to be like in early magic where rarety is determined by appearences on the print sheet. So everything will be common with a nudge nudge wink wink ultra rare mythic uncommon.
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Jan 11, 2022 16:12
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The set would have to have U R and M cards colllated for limited purposes anyway. Lightning Bolt would probably be a rare in the set
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Jan 11, 2022 16:17
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the entire afc north is rakdos don't at me
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Jan 11, 2022 16:20
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Crimson Vow has clearly been out too long this thread needs new spoilers to get it back on track
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Jan 11, 2022 16:34
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Big Ol Marsh Pussy posted:the entire afc north is rakdos don't at me Sorry, the nfc east owns the mantle of chaos. You are boros at best.
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Jan 11, 2022 16:34
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Paul Zuvella posted:I dont think its a lot to ask for to not have mod participated, multi page sportsball derails in a magic the gathering thread on a forum that has a full on forum dedicated to hand egg discussions. I don't think it's a lot to ask to scroll by some posts you don't like
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