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Actually, from a neorealist perspective Russia needs to give up its world power pretensions and join the US fold in the stand-off against China - the two actual superpowers with agency and interests worth considering Treating politics as a paradox map game is relatable but not particularly close to modelling material reality or insightful as you purposefully miss many actors and their interests involved to abstracting states to anthromorphized characters
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 08:40 |
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# ? May 14, 2024 03:46 |
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FishBulbia posted:From a realist perspective, Ukraine is also rationally motivated. The issue is its goals are insignificant compared to powers which can delete life on earth in under an hour. Neorealists mostly claim that the US has surrendered its interests in exchange for vague notions of principals, and is therefore harming its geopolitical goals by being lost in rhetoric. Here's the deal, the people fawning over daddy Putin while faking outrage over everything AmeriKKKa does aren't principled realists and scholars of IR, they are loving spineless morons
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 08:43 |
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Somaen posted:Actually, from a neorealist perspective Russia needs to give up its world power pretensions and join the US fold in the stand-off against China - the two actual superpowers with agency and interests worth considering Russia is doing triangulation between China and the US. Russia has significant agency because of its military strength, something that can be separated from economic especially for shorter conflicts
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 08:55 |
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The thread is tired of NATO posting troops stomping on our clay. Its security demands are such: - Vasukhani gets taken back by the covid thread - Can't station bad posters here - COVID thread gets nothing in return If our demands are not met we start forum wars with nuclear owns. 72 hours to comply Kidding aside, that's a reasonable position to exist in principle but always leads to atrocity apologia. Moral values are good and lead to more stability and prosperity in the long run Somaen fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Jan 18, 2022 |
# ? Jan 18, 2022 09:02 |
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khwarezm posted:Where else could Russia even demand aren't allowed allowed to join NATO if Ukraine is disregarded? Turkey and the Baltic states have already been lost to NATO from their POV, which is a major strategic handicap to Russia and probably their next biggest issue after Ukraine when we are talking about their Western foreign policy, and I doubt they would ask for something as nuts as expelling currently existing members. Actually Russia is demanding that. In the talks they have been having with the US they want NATO to go back to the way it was in 97 so that would mean expelling a whole crapload of countries including the Baltic countries, Hungary, Romania, Poland and others. It's a total non starter for NATO and one of the reasons why no one believes Russia was negotiating in good faith.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 09:18 |
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Are they willing to roll back their situation to pre 1997 levels? Stuff like military hardware in Kaliningrad, bases in Belarus. Comedy option: ask them if they free Chechnya if we're rolling back the situation..
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 10:50 |
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One of the things that perplexes me about those arguing for Moscow's position while bandying about terms like realism, spheres of interest, and zero sum is the complete lack of recognition that, regardless of whether Ukraine can successfully resist renewed Russian aggression, it is infinitely less costly for others to hold the line as close to Russia's borders as possible than to allow it to just waltz all over its neighbors, consolidate its gains, and advance itself towards the defensive alliance. Even if Russia has escalation dominance, helping Ukraine to deter aggression keeps the crosshairs off everyone else and is just as justified and sensible from that perspective as Russia's aims. Of course, when that gets pointed out, the crocodile tears start to flow and, moments after straight up quoting the Melian dialogue to justify Russia's actions, accusations are flung about how heinous it is that the West would sacrifice Ukrainian lives to thwart Moscow's ambitions, as if the West were sending Ukrainians on a suicide invasion into Russian territory instead of simply assisting the self defense of a country willing and resigned to defending itself. At that point, just about the only recourse is to either go silent, fall back to screaming that Ukraine is full of neo-Nazis and how, really, Russia would be doing everyone a favor, or to sling similar accusations against NATO member states as if that somehow excuses invasion. Don't get me wrong the NATO and the EU absolutely are suffering from authoritarian rot in a troubling number of their constituents and should be more proactive in rooting it out, but this obviously isn't an excuse for authoritarian Russia to have a say over its significantly less authoritarian neighbor.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 13:38 |
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Everyone would prefer not to see Russia invade Ukraine, so NATO should stop pretending it's going to invite Ukraine and continue its advance to encircle Russia.khwarezm posted:Where else could Russia even demand aren't allowed allowed to join NATO if Ukraine is disregarded? Finland and Sweden Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Jan 18, 2022 |
# ? Jan 18, 2022 13:55 |
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Sinteres posted:Everyone would prefer not to see Russia invade Ukraine, so NATO should stop pretending it's going to invite Ukraine and continue its advance to encircle Russia.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 14:26 |
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khwarezm posted:Where else could Russia even demand aren't allowed allowed to join NATO if Ukraine is disregarded? Turkey and the Baltic states have already been lost to NATO from their POV, which is a major strategic handicap to Russia and probably their next biggest issue after Ukraine when we are talking about their Western foreign policy, and I doubt they would ask for something as nuts as expelling currently existing members. Finland seems like the only realistic candidate next but if that's the case then the Russians are playing a dangerous game since its typically been best for everybody to just let Finland perform its tightrope balancing act like its done since the 1940s, acting aggressively towards the countries that border Russia only makes NATO seem much more useful to said countries, and I can't imagine that Finns are terrifically fond of what they are seeing in Ukraine. I'm curious about this; I guess I had always thought of Finland as having no love lost for Russia and a pseudo member of NATO.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 14:44 |
Sinteres posted:Everyone would prefer not to see Russia invade Ukraine, so NATO should stop pretending it's going to invite Ukraine and continue its advance to encircle Russia. I’m looking forward to Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan joining NATO.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:11 |
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:17 |
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I'm not saying what they're doing is okay but Russia already is encircled, it's just that Ukraine is part of Russia's buffer-zone.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:27 |
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Just like Imperial Germany, there's a few things about cause and effect that Russia should try to understand when it comes to the whole panic about "being encircled".
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:29 |
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They're only "encircled" because they're racist jerks that don't consider non-European borders important.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:29 |
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Sinteres posted:Everyone would prefer not to see Russia invade Ukraine, so NATO should stop pretending it's going to invite Ukraine and continue its advance to encircle Russia. Russia has done a great job encircling herself by forcing anybody who has to deal with her to be either antagonistic as a matter of survival, or to be ruled by kowtowing oligarchical lackeys who care nothing about the welfare of their countries. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Jan 18, 2022 |
# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:30 |
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https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ru675#2a81cd2a For some reason a Russian cargo airplane flew yesterday from Moscow to Leipzig via this route, which has caught a lot of media attention in Finland. Finnish Air Force says the plane was following flight plan, which isn't much of an explanation. This route took the plane suspiciously close to Finnish Air Force HQ in central Finland, so dunno, signal intelligence or just a random nothingburger?
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:30 |
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Kamrat posted:I'm not saying what they're doing is okay but Russia already is encircled, it's just that Ukraine is part of Russia's buffer-zone. "Buffer zone" is just a term for "imperialism I like", hth.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:32 |
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Now point out on the map where Russia's two biggest cities are. steinrokkan posted:"Buffer zone" is just a term for "imperialism I like", hth. So is defensive alliance. Remember when the defensive alliance attacked Russian allies in Serbia and Libya?
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:32 |
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Sinteres posted:Now point out on the map where Russia's two biggest cities are. Considering that Warsaw is closer to (Bela)Russian borders than Moscow, we should immediately launch a first strike nuclear attack against Russia, it's the only way to survive against this encroachment of Russia into our natural territory.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:34 |
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Sinteres posted:So is defensive alliance. Remember when the defensive alliance attacked Russian allies in Serbia and Libya? Ah yes, the old "who can say who is worse, the murderer, or the murdered" conundrum gently caress off, especially with the Serbia did nothing wrong truther bullshit
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:36 |
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You seem upset, maybe take a breather. Whether Serbia was in the wrong or not though, it obviously wasn't a defensive action by NATO, and as I pointed out in a previous post, it's interesting how the US and its allies only operate based on their high minded principles in defense of life and liberty when it coincides with cynical geopolitical goals. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:38 |
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Nenonen posted:For some reason a Russian cargo airplane flew yesterday from Moscow to Leipzig via this route, which has caught a lot of media attention in Finland. Finnish Air Force says the plane was following flight plan, which isn't much of an explanation.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:41 |
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Grouchio posted:You should know how this works: Russia wanted to see if Finland was stupid enough to shoot down a cargo plane as a casus belli. Nothing happened, obviously. I'm not sure if you're joking. No one shoots down airplanes following flight plans. Well, apart from Russians I guess. Sinteres posted:You seem upset, maybe take a breather. Whether Serbia was in the wrong or not though, it obviously wasn't a defensive action by NATO, and as I pointed out in a previous post, it's interesting how the US and its allies only operate based on their high minded principles in defense of life and liberty when it coincides with cynical geopolitical goals. Great, the thread just had a holodomor chat and now a genocide apologist barges in...
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:46 |
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Again, I never said anything about Serbia being in the right. I was just noting that the US sees some instances of human rights violations and goes wow we must absolutely stamp this out and tear apart the inviolability of international borders (while disallowing Serbian communities in Kosovo to similarly secede back to Serbia despite also being victims of ethnic cleansing), while ignoring or even assisting crimes against humanity in other places like Turkey and Yemen.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Jan 18, 2022 |
# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:49 |
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Sinteres posted:You seem upset, maybe take a breather. Whether Serbia was in the wrong or not though, it obviously wasn't a defensive action by NATO, and as I pointed out in a previous post, it's interesting how the US and its allies only operate based on their high minded principles in defense of life and liberty when it coincides with cynical geopolitical goals. There are no high minded principles (which is a funny charge coming from somebody who's just admitted to thinking that stopping a genocide is worse than genocide itself if it inconveniences mommy Russia), just a desire to stop the Russian tyrant looming over the region from gaining further hold since it brings nothing but poverty, violence and oppression. Selfish and self-evidently so for everybody affected, really. And as we've learned itt, selfish means good and justified. And in this case it just happens to also coincide with the morally superior choice. Sinteres posted:Again, I never said anything about Serbia being in the right. You said that stopping Serbia was imperialism, bud.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:51 |
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Sinteres posted:Again, I never said anything about Serbia being in the right. You aren't saying they were in the wrong, either, just that Nato countries were in the wrong in intervening.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:52 |
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steinrokkan posted:somebody who's just admitted to thinking that stopping a genocide is worse than genocide itself if it inconveniences mommy Russia I didn't say that, and I think you should try reading the posts you're responding to rather than simply responding emotionally when you see the name of a bad country typed out. Nenonen posted:You aren't saying they were in the wrong, either, just that Nato countries were in the wrong in intervening. I didn't even say they were wrong to intervene, just that it clearly wasn't a defensive action.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:52 |
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Sinteres posted:I didn't say that, and I think you should try reading the posts you're responding to rather than simply responding emotionally when you see the name of a bad country typed out. Again, you called it, explicitly, imperialism
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:54 |
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steinrokkan posted:Again, you called it, explicitly, imperialism It was. Like I said, I think these humanitarian interventions always conveniently serve cynical geopolitical interests, which makes them imperialist even if they incidentally do some good along the way. Punishing only your enemies while ignoring or even helping your friends commit similar crimes is obviously imperialist even if intervening isn't inherently wrong. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Jan 18, 2022 |
# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:54 |
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Nenonen posted:https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ru675#2a81cd2a It's certainly unusual, considering the standard route this flight number takes and the fact they did end up close to some off-limits areas in Finland. There'a a theory floating around that they were flying to Murmansk, couldn't land due to weather or some technical issues and opted to fly back to Leipzig, where Air Bridge Cargo has a base and where this flight normally terminates at, but the flight parameters and other patterns don't seem to agree. What I'm saying is: if this was a coincidence, then it was a hell of one. Mokotow fucked around with this message at 16:09 on Jan 18, 2022 |
# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:55 |
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steinrokkan posted:gently caress off, especially with the Serbia did nothing wrong truther bullshit Milosovic did something wrong. Serbian civilians who committed the crime of taking a train or buying food and received a death sentence, not so much!
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 15:59 |
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022...comments-a76073quote:ALMATY – Former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said Tuesday that there was “no conflict or confrontation” among Kazakhstan's elite in his first appearance since deadly protests rocked the former Soviet country earlier this month.
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# ? Jan 18, 2022 19:39 |
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This reads like Sukarno reading a script declaring "Suharto is totally my successor. He totally didn't strip me of powers then replace me after an abortive coup. That totally didn't lead to the eradication of my voter base in retaliation. Yep."
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# ? Jan 19, 2022 00:17 |
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Grouchio posted:This reads like Sukarno reading a script declaring "Suharto is totally my successor. He totally didn't strip me of powers then replace me after an abortive coup. That totally didn't lead to the eradication of my voter base in retaliation. Yep." Also, this non-descript room has a dozen of state flags, which indicates I [smash cut] definitely haven't [smash cut] fled the country.
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# ? Jan 19, 2022 00:27 |
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Somaen posted:This wouldn't achieve any strategic objectives that Russia has for Ukraine I was under the impression that Russian would only take Eastern Ukraine because from what I've skimmed across on twitter along with other articles is that their current troops aren't sufficient enough for a full scaled occupation. There's a real risk that it'd turn into another Afghanistan and slowly bleed Russian lives. They win in the short term but long term they'd just bleed out. All of this really sounds lovely too and there isn't much we are able to do. Wars are so goddamn dumb.
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# ? Jan 19, 2022 00:33 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I was under the impression that Russian would only take Eastern Ukraine because from what I've skimmed across on twitter along with other articles is that their current troops aren't sufficient enough for a full scaled occupation. There's a real risk that it'd turn into another Afghanistan and slowly bleed Russian lives. They win in the short term but long term they'd just bleed out. It’s going to turn into that no matter what if Russia invades imo. Conventional war won extremely quickly, guerillas and insurgents take their price later. Except worse politically the aghanistan because Russia still has conscription so there’s a bunch of people and peoples sons who did not volunteer for this getting sent into danger.
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# ? Jan 19, 2022 00:42 |
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Welp. War is so dumb meat grinder. It's awful how a bunch of young men are going to simply be sent to their deaths for no good reason and whom honestly probably would have gotten along just fine if it wasn't their lovely leaders.
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# ? Jan 19, 2022 00:48 |
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:It’s going to turn into that no matter what if Russia invades imo. Conventional war won extremely quickly, guerillas and insurgents take their price later. Except worse politically the aghanistan because Russia still has conscription so there’s a bunch of people and peoples sons who did not volunteer for this getting sent into danger. With the really weird aspect of fighting what are basically ethnic cousins.
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# ? Jan 19, 2022 01:26 |
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# ? May 14, 2024 03:46 |
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Anti tank weapons being sent to Ukraine because Britain wants to refinance Russian industrial loans
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# ? Jan 19, 2022 03:42 |