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Braksgirl posted:Someone I know was asking for name suggestions for a dog with a white-tipped tail and I suggested Eevee like the pokemon nerd I am. She then asked me if the pokemon was male, female, or non-binary and y'all, I was not prepared to think about the sexual identity of pokemon today. Non binary pokemon. 7/8 of all Eevees are male 
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Jan 25, 2022 19:52
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Skwirl posted:I'm willing to bet that roughly the same number of people will die from in 2022 as in 2021, and depending on what new mutations we get, roughly the same number will continue to die every year. Also we will never have another lock down like we did in 2020. Illness and hospitalizations are high because we've got far more people infected at once right now than ever before in the US: but on a per-infection basis, deaths are way way down, because vaccine worked and vaccinated people mostly don't die. We'll get new variants for sure; and they'll continue to be fatal, although probably decreasingly so (over many variants, the tendency of viruses is to mutate toward non-fatality because mild symptoms correlate strongly to more opportunities to spread); and they'll continue to mostly kill the unvaccinated. I agree that there likely haven't been and won't be enough fatalaties skewed towards republican voters to significantly skew most state elections. The exceptions are places like Wisconsin, that are very very tight swing states. Trump barely won Wisconsin in 2016 (by 0.77%), Biden barely won it in 2020 (by 0.63%), and so it's concievable that a strongly-republican-skewing death rate could swing that state if the candidates would otherwise have very closely split it again (which is not a given). Florida hasn't been a swing state since 2000 and probably won't be any time soon. Part of the reason it swung in 2000 was because independent pat buchanan picked up some republican votes (infamously, the butterfly ballot lol). e. I should note that Biden won 306-232 and Wisconsin only has 10 EVs, so he could have lost Wisconsin and he'd still have won the election. 2016 was special in how incredibly close it was, that's very rare. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 19:52
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Florida won't be a swing state barring major demographic change. One demographic categorically refuses to vaccinate against a disease that's killing hundreds of floridians daily. Not only that, they are so staunchly anti-doing anything, they don't even test in most of the rural counties which has caused FL's covid death numbers to be underreported by at least 1/3rd. The majority of people dying from covid every day are republican voters. Whether this demographic decimation has an actual impact at the polling booth is yet to be seen, but we are still stacking bodies like there's no tomorrow because 30% of people refuse to believe that this is real.
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Jan 25, 2022 19:56
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Leperflesh posted:We'll get new variants for sure; and they'll continue to be fatal, although probably decreasingly so (over many variants, the tendency of viruses is to mutate toward non-fatality because mild symptoms correlate strongly to more opportunities to spread); and they'll continue to mostly kill the unvaccinated. The bolded I think is untrue for Covid. It is true that for some viruses there is a tendency for less fatality. I can’t remember the specific reason why and I have a headache so who gives a poo poo but there was some reason why that trend isn’t necessarily true for Covid. I think it has something to do with the timing of max infectiousness vs tangible symptoms.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:01
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Yeah I think if we assume a fairly similar electoral map in 2024 to 2020, we'd have to have the republican death rate swing about five states, and that seems vanishingly unlikely.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:01
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Ornery and Hornery posted:The bolded I think is untrue for Covid. It is true that for some viruses there is a tendency for less fatality. I can’t remember the specific reason why and I have a headache so who gives a poo poo but there was some reason why that trend isn’t necessarily true for Covid. I'll look into it. I think it's probably true over the course of decades (per Influenza) but I may not know something important about Covid.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:02
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The real swing in the election will not come from physical deaths due to Covid, but the death of hope (and thus voter turnout) from four years of do-nothing Joe.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:02
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I finally got around to watching Yashahime and so far, 18 episodes in, I am not sure why Moroha is in this story at all. She's the best character and has all of Inuyasha's good qualities without all the angst and brooding, but the plot revolves solidly around Towa, Setsuna, and Sesshoumary. Who is a jerk.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:09
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Leperflesh posted:Yeah I think if we assume a fairly similar electoral map in 2024 to 2020, we'd have to have the republican death rate swing about five states, and that seems vanishingly unlikely. Florida's official covid death toll is 64k people. Since that's about 1/3rd underreported, something like 96k people have actually died from covid. 23k of those were from 2020 so we can assume a pretty even ideological split. That leaves around 73k people dead in Florida from covid since January 2021. That electoral split of that group skews massively toward republican. By election time this year, Florida may have lost more than 50k republican voters. While that would not have swung the state for Biden, it would have changed the 2018 midterm results significantly. Florida will elect more than one statewide dem in 2022 in large part because of the fact that tens of thousands of republican voters died in a completely preventable way.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:10
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It's hard to assume that the majority of deaths from COVID are Republicans. I'd probably counter that most people dying from it are non-voters.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:34
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seiferguy posted:It's hard to assume that the majority of deaths from COVID are Republicans. I'd probably counter that most people dying from it are non-voters. Bingo. Also if 2022 goes the way it looks like it’s going to, the turnout gap is going to overwhelm whatever small demographic shift has occurred.
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Jan 25, 2022 20:36
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There's a lot of elderly, and they tend to vote at a high rate. Despite that: 1. Of eligible voters, a record-high 70% were registered to vote in 2016; 2. Of eligible voters, a record-high 61.4% actually voted in 2016. The numbers are much lower in mid-terms and generally lower even in general elections when the electorate isn't as motivated (e.g., angry). So OK, you can presume that the anti-vaxxers skew to the right, and you can presume that deaths skew to the elderly, and elderly vote more while more right than left die; you still have to lower your envelope numbers by probably 40-50%. E.g., instead of 50k republican actual-voters in 2022, probably more like 30k, distributed unevenly across the state. I suppose it could still swing a handful of very tight state-level elections. At a national or presidential level, I don't believe it's going to be a deciding factor in 2022 or probably 2024 either. Everyone expects the republicans to re-take the house by a bunch of seats in 2022. If it winds up actually being very close, there might be a few swing districts across the country where a half percent push to the left due to covid deaths mattered? Maybe?
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Jan 25, 2022 21:09
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if the time I've spent playing plague inc is any guide first you spread everywhere then you mutate the super deadly symptoms
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Jan 25, 2022 21:19
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Someone in the lovely tattoo thread just hooked me up with a new AV haha
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Jan 25, 2022 22:07
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there's too many shifts in FL happening right now to do some wishcasting about the state. there was just a massive influx of people who've moved down since the shift to remote work. a ton of people died. the state dems are still somehow more incompetent than the national dems. the radicalization trends in the state aren't decreasing in the slightest. a ton of people all over the country are giving up bc politics clearly isn't going to help any of us. biden's been garbage and there will be zero enthusiasm for the dems in the next two cycles. pick whichever trend you want but things are a shitshow and im gonna stick with the safe bet that FL doesn't swing blue Ornery and Hornery posted:The bolded I think is untrue for Covid. It is true that for some viruses there is a tendency for less fatality. I can’t remember the specific reason why and I have a headache so who gives a poo poo but there was some reason why that trend isn’t necessarily true for Covid. the lower fatality thing requires a bunch of stuff to be true like max infectiousness and symptoms to align, as you mentioned. it also requires a consistent response from us to blunt it whether that's vaccines that remain effective for more than 6mos and for more than 1-2 variants or actual NPIs. the lower fatality/endemic thing is mostly bullshit our aggressively optimistic overlords keep pushing to keep everyone from panicking Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Jan 25, 2022 |
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Jan 25, 2022 22:17
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Gillum was an atrocious candidate. Atrocious. Maybe start there!
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Jan 25, 2022 22:24
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Amy Pole Her posted:Gillum was an atrocious candidate. Atrocious. Maybe start there! point me to the last good FL Dem candidate for governor (who won the primary)
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Jan 25, 2022 22:25
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Relentlessboredomm posted:point me to the last good FL Dem candidate for governor (who won the primary) Thank you for affirming my point
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Jan 25, 2022 22:49
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Wonder if Pitbull would be interested
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Jan 25, 2022 23:03
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a sexual elk posted:Someone in the lovely tattoo thread just hooked me up with a new AV haha Vinegar strokes elk
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Jan 25, 2022 23:03
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Amy Pole Her posted:Thank you for affirming my point We’re on the same page here, it’s just astonishing how bad the state party has been.
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Jan 25, 2022 23:06
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Braksgirl posted:Someone I know was asking for name suggestions for a dog with a white-tipped tail and I suggested Eevee like the pokemon nerd I am. She then asked me if the pokemon was male, female, or non-binary and y'all, I was not prepared to think about the sexual identity of pokemon today. Non binary pokemon. I still want to know why a Venusaur and a Bulbasaur can’t mate, according to you.
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Jan 25, 2022 23:11
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Florida will never go blue again because it’s spent a half century or more concentrating the worst people in the country into a meth and cocaine infused hot box. Also the midterms are going to be an unconscionable bloodbath. I am morbidly curious how bad it will be.
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Jan 25, 2022 23:14
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Silly Burrito posted:I still want to know why a Venusaur and a Bulbasaur can’t mate, according to you. Bulbasaur is just a kid you sick bastard.
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Jan 25, 2022 23:24
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Quiet Feet posted:Bulbasaur is just a kid you sick bastard. I have been told that Pokémon don’t mate but there’s too many of them in that tall grass for nothing to go on. And no I’m not searching Google for that one.
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Jan 25, 2022 23:27
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Relentless boredom :clap: Run for :clap: Office :clap: Florida needs u
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Jan 25, 2022 23:29
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Relentlessboredomm posted:We’re on the same page here, it’s just astonishing how bad the state party has been. We’re hosed
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Jan 25, 2022 23:31
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Happy Australia Day
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Jan 25, 2022 23:38
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BlindSite posted:Happy Australia Day
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Jan 25, 2022 23:44
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Silly Burrito posted:I have been told that Pokémon don’t mate but there’s too many of them in that tall grass for nothing to go on. perhaps they reproduce asexually, by budding or with spores or something
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Jan 25, 2022 23:46
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the way you breed pokemon in the games is you put two of opposite gender in the same egg group in daycare together and then a few in game days later the daycare couple find an egg that seemed to magically have appeared and give it to you.
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Jan 25, 2022 23:52
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a sexual elk posted:Someone in the lovely tattoo thread just hooked me up with a new AV haha That *is* a very sexual elk
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Jan 26, 2022 00:01
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I am popping up tomorrow to see the woman I met over the holidays for a few days. I also don't have my winter coat and the high is like 11 lol.
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Jan 26, 2022 00:13
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Silly Burrito posted:I have been told that Pokémon don’t mate but there’s too many of them in that tall grass for nothing to go on. Something has to be going on in those pokeballs.
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Jan 26, 2022 00:13
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swickles posted:I am popping up tomorrow to see the woman I met over the holidays for a few days. I also don't have my winter coat and the high is like 11 lol. Please make sure she understands you are knowingly underprepared for the cold and not trying to look tough.
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Jan 26, 2022 00:27
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Got my 2021 upward feedback from my direct reports and it was all just like glowing reviews on what a great leader i've been, how I've helped with their confidence and how they like that I always have their back and stuff like that. I try so hard not to be the absolute garbage bosses i've had in the past it was awesome to read that I'm actually doing something worthwhile. I actually got a little choked up. e: before anyone asks it was anonymous and there was an area to provide development areas, which they did, and all made good points which I'll work on but it was all very positive and made me happy
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Jan 26, 2022 00:27
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Samadhi posted:what the gently caress Pennsylvania was this posted in the bad pizza gbs thread because if not it needs to be in the trump thread someone was posting terrible pennsylvania thick-sliced bread sandwiches with fries in them as well. something's going on there, something bad dirty shrimp money posted:Can't decide if DeSantis is just a regular political fuckstick using popular sentiment to get himself elected or if he's actually the competent fascist that will really ruin the back half of the 20s. Except Trump is starting to pick up on that and is not happy at all. Should be fun Android Apocalypse posted:I don't know how eyeglass prescription translates to 20/x vision but before LASIK my left eye was -10.75 & my right was -10.50. Sucked too as my left eye is my dominant eye. I did not know you could have a dominant eye. or a submissive eye, for that matter seiferguy posted:My credit score is really good but because I don't have any non-mortage loans, it's taken a minor hit from perfection. Weird that paying off my car and my student loans would work against me! put yourself back into debt, slave. that's where we want you. deeply in debt but still making payments. preferably those payments only cover interest if that I'm a manchild so I've emancipated myself from the credit system. gently caress credit. I don't need it, I have money for everything I need and I will never have enough money to buy a house anyways so why should I be overly concerned with my score.
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Jan 26, 2022 00:37
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Joey Freshwater posted:Got my 2021 upward feedback from my direct reports and it was all just like glowing reviews on what a great leader i've been, how I've helped with their confidence and how they like that I always have their back and stuff like that. I try so hard not to be the absolute garbage bosses i've had in the past it was awesome to read that I'm actually doing something worthwhile. I actually got a little choked up. "Also he takes a great picture of a fish"
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Jan 26, 2022 00:37
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WITH a fish
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Jan 26, 2022 00:45
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Joey does take great fish pics (e: with fishies), I aspire to be like him and it motivates me every fishing trip
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