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The funny thing about targeted sanctions is that since they signal to the international community that the US is displeased at the leadership of a nation, they're reluctant to do business with said nation since who knows when more sanctions will be forthcoming. So they effectively turn into broad spectrum sanctions, while the targeted individuals in question are wealthy and find ways to evade them.
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Jan 30, 2022 00:40
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Alchenar posted:3) This is the one that everyone above forgot to mention but it's the biggie - sanctions on military and dual-use equipment.
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Jan 30, 2022 00:57
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Budzilla posted:"Dual-use" was a term thrown around a lot in the 90s at Iraq sanctions and look how that turned out. I personally think targeted sanctions is the best solution out of a range of imperfect ones. Unlike countries that have a high turnover of leadership due to elections, Russia has a leadership that changes slowly over time and as Cinci said, Putin will probably make exceptions for oligarchs if they see their wealth become meaningless outside Russia. I mean, sanctions on Iraq did make it impossible to rebuilt the Iraqi army from the catastrophic material losses of the first war, which made the 2003 invasion much much easier than it might have been and also kept a lid on Saddam's ambitions to attack the Kurds or have another go at Kuwait. If you measure sanctions against objectives they aren't intended to achieve then obviously they do not come out looking good. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 01:02
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Alchenar posted:I mean, sanctions on Iraq did make it impossible to rebuilt the Iraqi army from the catastrophic material losses of the first war, which made the 2003 invasion much much easier than it might have been and also kept a lid of Saddam's ambitions to attack the Kurds or have another go at Kuwait. Also, if sanctions supposedly do nothing or only succeed in uniting the population in supporting their regimes more, then why do these countries keep asking for them to be removed? They should embrace them.
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Jan 30, 2022 01:41
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Also, if sanctions supposedly do nothing or only succeed in uniting the population in supporting their regimes more, then why do these countries keep asking for them to be removed? They should embrace them. Because most leaders, even the worst, generally are not Cobra Commander, and do not want to preside over a starving nation. Conspiratiorist posted:The funny thing about targeted sanctions is that since they signal to the international community that the US is displeased at the leadership of a nation, they're reluctant to do business with said nation since who knows when more sanctions will be forthcoming. It's also my understanding that a lot of exporters don't want to go through the trouble of checking goods on their own dime, so "We're sanctioning everything but food and medicine" in practice becomes "we're sanctioning everything". Sanctions are also going to become less and less effective over time as China's trade sphere grows bigger, and the US's comically large sanction list starts to mean less and less. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 01:58
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Alchenar posted:I mean, sanctions on Iraq did make it impossible to rebuilt the Iraqi army from the catastrophic material losses of the first war, which made the 2003 invasion much much easier than it might have been and also kept a lid on Saddam's ambitions to attack the Kurds or have another go at Kuwait. You're not wrong, but I don't think there's much appetite or interest in repeating the humanitarian clusterfuck that was the Iraq sanctions
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Jan 30, 2022 03:08
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Herstory Begins Now posted:You're not wrong, but I don't think there's much appetite or interest in repeating the humanitarian clusterfuck that was the Iraq sanctions FWIW while I think sanctions are overused and do immiserate people (see for example sanctions against companies doing business in Crimea, which obviously makes the lives of people in Crimea worse, when they're the ostensible victims of occupation), the death statistics about the harm done by US sanctions in Iraq before the war were a massively successful propaganda campaign by Saddam that wasn't remotely close to the truth. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 04:00 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 03:58
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Sinteres posted:FWIW while I think sanctions are overused and do immiserate people, the death statistics about the harm done by US sanctions in Iraq before the war were a massively successful propaganda campaign by Saddam that wasn't remotely close to the truth. That's the point I think. Putin knows his worst outcome is sanctions. With a portion or all of Ukraines GDP of 155 B USD in hand Putin can mitigate most of the effects of these sanctions. The workers will continue to work and be fattened up by Putin to gurantee loyalty and productivity. The sanctions will be felt by citizens the most and United Russia can just spit out that the devil US did this to us and keep a massive polling lead also election theft is loving rampant lol WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 04:07 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 04:05
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Neurolimal posted:
Relatedly, "these targeted sanctions against x y and z require you to do due diligence to ensure your sales to this country are not going to x y and z" will often lead to a discussion internally of "should we take the time to ensure we comply with this rule or just stop selling to the entire country which is only .1% of our volume anyway" I used to do compliance for targeted individual sanctions at a major American company and my work day was going through customers who had the same name as the state department decreed bad guy, and either verifying that was not the same person, or reaching out to the customer and asking they send in ID and delaying their order until they did. It takes a whole department to do that if you sell internationally. It's a pain. And also a whole lot of random people with the same name (or name matching an alias) just always get their orders sightly delayed for a probably mysterious to them reason. Maybe it's different now but at the time the rule was partial name match = investigation. Doesn't matter if you placed the order from California and that name is shared by tens of thousands of people, full investigation to prove it's not the bad guy so that you are documenting your compliance. That's going to incentize a lot of small consumer level companies that sell internationally to just remove the option to sell to the country in question overall.
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Jan 30, 2022 04:28
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Best Friends posted:Relatedly, "these targeted sanctions against x y and z require you to do due diligence to ensure your sales to this country are not going to x y and z" will often lead to a discussion internally of "should we take the time to ensure we comply with this rule or just stop selling to the entire country which is only .1% of our volume anyway" though unrelated to this thread, this brought up two lol memories of my time at a major US network services provider: - *walk over to the general counsel's desk* "hi, we've received a support ticket from someone who signed up using our self-service free tier. it's the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. what do we do with this, exactly?" "uh... we'll get back to you" - on the opposite side of things: a customer being very annoyed at our certificate authority partners' compliance systems auto-rejecting a domain because it had "Iran" in the name. said customer was a US-based probably CIA-affiliated pro-Iranian democracy thing
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Jan 30, 2022 04:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.ft.com/content/0cbbd590-8e48-4687-a302-e74b6f0c905d "The only thing I am sure about is that every bit of moral, political and military support that Ukraine gets from its friends and allies makes an invasion less likely." That made me curious: does Ukraine have any actual allies? Obviously NATO is pushing back against Russia so they might count as the "friends" in that sentence, but are there direct allies; are there countries in central/eastern Europe sending troops to Ukraine itself? I'm guessing the writer meant "allies" in a generic sense but it just caught my eye.
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Jan 30, 2022 05:21
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Maybe they shouldn't use a font named after a siege weapon.
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Jan 30, 2022 05:52
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So Russia doesn't have enough influence over its sphere of influence to prevent defections and is now threatening to bomb defectors if the US doesn't promise to maintain Russia's sphere of influence by preventing defectors from joining US alliances. Amusingly Putins position that Ukraininans and Russians are essentially one people means that he's really threatening to bomb his own people while the US is negotiating with him to please not do that.
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Jan 30, 2022 06:05
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I think it was mentioned earlier this is essentially a war of cousins as odd as that sounds.
Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 06:17 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 06:08
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Owling Howl posted:So Russia doesn't have enough influence over its sphere of influence to prevent defections and is now threatening to bomb defectors if the US doesn't promise to maintain Russia's sphere of influence by preventing defectors from joining US alliances. From the Russian perspective Ukraine is a confederation of rebel oblasts that finally need to be reigned in
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Jan 30, 2022 06:13
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The actual, blunt reason that Russia might invade Ukraine is simply that they've failed to stop Russia from claiming two valuable chunks of land, they've been jerked around by NATO long enough that its clear nobody wants to actually defend them, and there's enough Russia-sympathetic Ukrainians that they dont need to worry about unrest & insurgency if they're strategic with their land seizures (IE they're not going to conquer Kyiv). Anything else is just rhetoric to obfuscate the realpolitik.
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Jan 30, 2022 06:20
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There is no city of any significance in Ukraine they can take without worrying about insurgencies. As for everything else, Ukraine doesnt really need much external protection to fight back Russia in a defensive war.
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Jan 30, 2022 06:28
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Sekenr posted:There is no city of any significance in Ukraine they can take without worrying about insurgencies. As for everything else, Ukraine doesnt really need much external protection to fight back Russia in a defensive war. But would they ruin their own country to fight against Russia's inevitable passification or would they shake their heads and take a potentially higher pension and wage (bribing them) as fascists usually do. Eg Czechoslovakia due to their industrial output was bribed with money and kept the insurgency down until the anthropoid was killed.
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Jan 30, 2022 06:37
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:But would they ruin their own country to fight against Russia's inevitable passification or would they shake their heads and take a potentially higher pension and wage (bribing them) as fascists usually do. Eg Czechoslovakia due to their industrial output was bribed with money and kept the insurgency down until the anthropoid was killed. There are those who have made their mind about this (proverbial restoration of USSR), and you’ll need not much to get them to roll over - basically just don’t be an utter monster in public. Everyone else knows what’s life like in Crimea and Donbas well enough to approach any Russian offers with “some” scepticism. For example, a friend of mine served in Ukrainian Navy during Crimea annexation - he was stationed in Crimea, a senior officer at a coastal rocket artillery base. If anyone remembers my posts from that time, that’s where I had information from about Russian soldiers trying to storm bases unarmed and fist-fighting the occupants into submission. As things began to look final in Crimea, his base reached settlement with the Russian siege crew, and they were able to return home finally, after 2-3 weeks under siege. Shortly afterwards, he was offered a Russian citizenship, and to join Russian army with the same rank. With no ways out, a mortgage on his neck, and a wife and an infant to provide for, he ended up accepting - disappointed with basically everything, but at least with measure of grim satisfaction that he gets to keep his life together, and that he’s getting a sizeable salary bump. Then two weeks later he told me that he has been commandeered to some isolated military base in northern Russia, beyond Ural Mountains. That was the last time I’ve heard from him. surf rock posted:"The only thing I am sure about is that every bit of moral, political and military support that Ukraine gets from its friends and allies makes an invasion less likely." They don’t have any military allies in strict sense.
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Jan 30, 2022 09:44
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Budzilla posted:Can you at least post some context for us mono-lingual morons on an English speaking forum? I mean, I get the gist of it but the twitter comments aren't too helpful. Apologies, I should have posted at least a summary. Please don't take my aggressively anti-american posting persona seriously, your contributions to the thread are appreciated Budzilla. It was originally a tool to run out idiot tankies, but clearly it's now pushing away normal people who are not obsessed with genocide denial. ================== Maxim Mironov, a Russian professor in Argentina/Spain and a Navalny ally wrote a piece articulating the frustration I feel with the informational field regarding Russia. Here he is talking about two particular cases of the nominally liberal Echo Moskvy acting as controlled opposition (it's funded by Gazprom). The editor-in-chief Venediktov is promoting Kremlin viewpoints to create informational noise and visibility of a two sided debate to cover for the electronic voting being used to fake the results of voting and the government covering up the investigation into its own murder attempt. This is very transposable to the english-speaking sphere where a significant amount of information is retranslated from Kremlin controlled sources to create the illusion of there being two equivalent sides to any conflicting situation and drown out the substance of the reality with irrelevant lies or Kremlin's grievances. I ran this through google translate and made some minor edits to make it readable: quote:How does propaganda work for the smart? We are all used to the fact that there are federal channels on which Solovyov, Kiselev, Skabeeva, Simonyan and others directly pour into people's ears an agenda that corresponds to the general line of the party. This strategy works for an audience that, for various reasons, does not use alternative sources of information. Original: https://www.facebook.com/mironov.xyz/posts/137673762050262 Somaen fucked around with this message at 10:45 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 10:06
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Neurolimal posted:The actual, blunt reason that Russia might invade Ukraine is simply that they've failed to stop Russia from claiming two valuable chunks of land, they've been jerked around by NATO long enough that its clear nobody wants to actually defend them, and there's enough Russia-sympathetic Ukrainians that they dont need to worry about unrest & insurgency if they're strategic with their land seizures (IE they're not going to conquer Kyiv). It's not a matter of Kiev so much as it's a matter of Kiev and most of the country west of that once you're between Moldova and Belarus. And even other stuff before that is iffier and mixed rather than brazenly Russophile.
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Jan 30, 2022 15:45
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Somaen posted:Apologies, I should have posted at least a summary. Please don't take my aggressively anti-american posting persona seriously, your contributions to the thread are appreciated Budzilla. It was originally a tool to run out idiot tankies, but clearly it's now pushing away normal people who are not obsessed with genocide denial. cinci zoo sniper posted:Then two weeks later he told me that he has been commandeered to some isolated military base in northern Russia, beyond Ural Mountains. That was the last time I’ve heard from him. 
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Jan 30, 2022 17:54
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There are those who have made their mind about this (proverbial restoration of USSR), and you’ll need not much to get them to roll over - basically just don’t be an utter monster in public. Everyone else knows what’s life like in Crimea and Donbas well enough to approach any Russian offers with “some” scepticism. I read the same about Ukraine military who switched sides in Crimea. They get the "demonstrated unreliable loyalties" remark in their file ending any chance of advancement and get shipped off into the middle of nowhere.
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Jan 30, 2022 19:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Wow. That's nuts, I wonder what happened to all of the guys in Crimea that would turn coat by throwing on a black balaclava? Same fate due to possibly mixed allegiances? I would theorize that he may magically return post occupation to do the same exact job he was doing in the same base just with a different set of chevrons and a shiny new flag.
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Jan 30, 2022 19:47
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Wow. That's nuts, I wonder what happened to all of the guys in Crimea that would turn coat by throwing on a black balaclava? Same fate due to possibly mixed allegiances? I’d speculate what Sekenr says, that they’ve all been scattered evenly over Russian bases, and will remain there on backbench, doing poo poo like running fire drills for cadets and whatnot. Never anything where they could inflict serious damage upon Russia, or defect back home. Wouldn’t be surprised if all their movements are under surveillance. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Jan 30, 2022 |
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Jan 30, 2022 19:50
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’d speculate what Sekenr says, that they’ve all been scattered evenly over Russian bases, and will remain there on backbench, doing poo poo like running fire drills for cadets and whatnot. Never anything where they could inflict serious damage upon Russia, or defect back home. Wouldn’t be surprised if all their movements are under surveillance. Love the treason, hate the traitor.
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Jan 30, 2022 21:29
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The Russians can laud their own aggression all they want, but they shall never tussle with the Irish 
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Jan 30, 2022 22:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’d speculate what Sekenr says, that they’ve all been scattered evenly over Russian bases, and will remain there on backbench, doing poo poo like running fire drills for cadets and whatnot. Never anything where they could inflict serious damage upon Russia, or defect back home. Wouldn’t be surprised if all their movements are under surveillance. Yeah that's dark poo poo. Like poster above love the treason hate the traitor.
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Jan 30, 2022 22:21
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https://mobile.twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1487806792474181636 Western SOF/trainers starting to pull out.
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Jan 30, 2022 22:22
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After unironic 20 years of debates, Latvia is finally launching a national bottle recycling system next week.
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Jan 30, 2022 22:34
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US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs @UnderSecStateP tells @margbrennan that Russia "is moving up to 30,000" troops to Belarus- via @nickschifrincinci zoo sniper posted:After unironic 20 years of debates, Latvia is finally launching a national bottle recycling system next week. "" UK says it will offer large new military deployment to Europe this week, PM Boris Johnson to speak with Putin this week as well "" WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Jan 31, 2022 |
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Jan 31, 2022 00:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:After unironic 20 years of debates, Latvia is finally launching a national bottle recycling system next week. Only like 17 years after Estonia. Congrats regardless!!
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Jan 31, 2022 00:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:After unironic 20 years of debates, Latvia is finally launching a national bottle recycling system next week. Plastic or glass?
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Jan 31, 2022 00:49
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mobby_6kl posted:Plastic or glass? Reported for asking an extremely controversial question
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Jan 31, 2022 00:50
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Is there a good primer for someone who is completely ignorant of EE and just wants to understand what is happening? All I've seen lately is headlines but I'm woefully underinformed and I probably shouldn't be.
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Jan 31, 2022 02:03
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Captain Melo posted:Is there a good primer for someone who is completely ignorant of EE and just wants to understand what is happening? All I've seen lately is headlines but I'm woefully underinformed and I probably shouldn't be. Thankfully there's a fairly comprehensive and unbiased source on the subject: here you go. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 02:12 on Jan 31, 2022 |
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Jan 31, 2022 02:08
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Captain Melo posted:Is there a good primer for someone who is completely ignorant of EE and just wants to understand what is happening? All I've seen lately is headlines but I'm woefully underinformed and I probably shouldn't be. EE is a big place, what do you want any to know about?
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Jan 31, 2022 02:12
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Is there a point at which we should spin off the current UA-RU events into its own thread?
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Jan 31, 2022 02:18
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Captain Melo posted:Is there a good primer for someone who is completely ignorant of EE and just wants to understand what is happening? All I've seen lately is headlines but I'm woefully underinformed and I probably shouldn't be. There's a castles and princesses and cheese europe that has things like the beatles and mimes. East of that is another one. It has some of those things but also a lot more of the color gray and a lot less vowels.
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Jan 31, 2022 02:18
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:Is there a point at which we should spin off the current UA-RU events into its own thread?
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Jan 31, 2022 02:26
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