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quarantinethepast posted:I imagine that if said invasion comes to pass, we may see a fracturing of NATO as Eastern European countries realize they're on their own, and subsequently an increase in nationalism and military spending. Imagine the hard right turn in Poland but everywhere in Eastern Europe. i'm not sure i understand this point. why would eastern europe "realize they're on their own"? if nothing else, the us (and, to varying extents, canada, the uk, and france) have been united in shoring up the capacities of the NATO members on its eastern flank
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Feb 6, 2022 03:24
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Ukraine is not a NATO member and so the US has no treaty obligation to protect them. I’m not sure how the second strongest country in Easter Europe quickly falling to Russia would make the idea of an anti-Russian alliance less attractive. You can’t really be on your own in the successful invasion scenario. Either you’re with Russia or the West. No in between.
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Feb 6, 2022 03:42
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QuoProQuid posted:i'm not sure i understand this point. why would eastern europe "realize they're on their own"? Maybe I'm being alarmist or what I'm arguing lacks foundation. E: You know what, given that Ukraine is not a NATO member I revise my argument. Short term it means that the NATO alliance will be even more important because it's the main defense against Russian influence. The moment where it would all fall apart is if Russia gets to bully NATO allies and the US does nothing, which Russia will definitely try to make happen. America Inc. fucked around with this message at 03:51 on Feb 6, 2022 |
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Feb 6, 2022 03:44
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quarantinethepast posted:Tbf Ukraine is not part of NATO, but they've been attempting to get in. I guess I'm thinking about it like a domino. If Ukraine is invaded and Russia gets to flex its military power, who's to say Poland or the Baltic states aren't next? It would be in Russia's interest to test the waters and rattle nerves so the alliance falls apart, and who's to say if Russia puts a military front on a NATO ally that the US won't bow out again? i think, as BIG FLUFFY DOG, has said, the last few weeks have reinforced the importance of NATO for those within the alliance. like, there's a reason that Estonia (a NATO member) has not dealt with anything more than idle threats while Ukraine (not a NATO member) has been fighting an insurgency for almost eight years now and seems likely to be invaded. you can see this in the way that the crisis has been framed by different countries or how the debate around NATO in places like Finland and Sweden have suddenly and abruptly shifted. E: just saw your edit, friend. no worries.
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Feb 6, 2022 03:52
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edit: nvm
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Feb 6, 2022 04:20
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I mean, this is one of those “the US has plans on invading Canada” type things right? ie: not going to happen but there are actual plans “just in case”
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Feb 6, 2022 04:23
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Boris Galerkin posted:I mean, this is one of those “the US has plans on invading Canada” type things right? I would read it as within 72 hours of invasion, not within 72 hours from now.
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Feb 6, 2022 04:35
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Boris Galerkin posted:I mean, this is one of those “the US has plans on invading Canada” type things right? This is a "this is what could happen if Russian launched a full-scale invasion". Russia is very unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion. However, they can have a minor invasion, as a treat.
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Feb 6, 2022 05:55
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Conspiratiorist posted:Here's an acquaintance's self-made force concentration map: > Gomel > Homyel 🤔
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Feb 6, 2022 07:34
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:For those of us that aren't well versed in recent Polish politics, what's a quick summary of that? I'm assuming by recent you mean in the last x years. The short version is that in 2015 PiS won the trifecta of presidency/senate/sejm (lower house) and steadily began dismantling democratic institutions, which began by ignoring the constitutional court rulings until the majority of judges were switched to PiS aligned ones. The public television steadily increased the propaganda until it reached absolutely ridiculous levels (blaming absolutely everything bad on either the EU or Tusk), culminating in stupidity like increasing the red and positioning the main opposition party logo to give Tusk horns:  The senate was lost to the collective opposition in the last elections, but it's a relatively toothless branch of the government - the main difference is that instead of rubberstamping acts, it can delay them by a month and the sejm can then overturn the veto anyway. Lately the main topic was the wiretapping of opposition party during the last elections, prosecutors which are still anti-PiS and members of the agency that check for government overreach. There's also stuff like general corruption, but the target voters don't care, because PiS gave them lowered retirement age and 500 PLN/child/month ($125 roughly, 1/6 of current minimum wage).
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Feb 6, 2022 08:59
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quarantinethepast posted:I imagine that if said invasion comes to pass, we may see a fracturing of NATO as Eastern European countries realize they're on their own, and subsequently an increase in nationalism and military spending. Imagine the hard right turn in Poland but everywhere in Eastern Europe. What the hell are you going on about? Ukraine is not a NATO member state. Also, Poland has had a hard right government for years now, there’s literally nowhere for them to double down even. Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:I would read it as within 72 hours of invasion, not within 72 hours from now. You could also read that explicitly, if you’d follow to the end of the thread. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 09:12 on Feb 6, 2022 |
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Feb 6, 2022 09:08
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People describe NATO as an 'anti Russia alliance' but the truth is that throughout the 90's and most of the 00's NATO has had a real crisis of identity. Everyone in Europe drew down their conventional forces significantly, and even as NATO expanded eastwards the amount of forces deployed by Allies in Germany got reduced by more and more. There's been a long running argument between 'NATO is about Russia', 'NATO is an obsolete relic we keep around for form's sake', 'NATO can protect southern Europe from instability in Africa/the Middle East', and 'NATO can be the expeditionary wing of the EU projecting stability in it's neighbourhood'. Far from fracturing NATO, it's looking pretty clear that this crisis has resolved the argument pretty strongly in favour of the the 'Russia is the main challenge' camp (at least for the time being).
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Feb 6, 2022 11:23
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https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1490303211193913346 Thanks for the clarification, Alexander G.
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Feb 6, 2022 14:00
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1490303211193913346 lol he got scared by Lithuania.
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Feb 6, 2022 14:01
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If it's in reference to his interview to Soloviev, he was talking about cutting off gas and electricity supply to Ukraine, not military involvement. At least that's what is in the clip everyone's posting, I'm not watching the entire thing, sorry.
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Feb 6, 2022 14:16
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Paladinus posted:If it's in reference to his interview to Soloviev, he was talking about cutting off gas and electricity supply to Ukraine, not military involvement. At least that's what is in the clip everyone's posting, I'm not watching the entire thing, sorry. True, but now he's saying he will launch missiles on Ukraine if the US pushes Ukraine into war. https://t.me/bbbreaking/113260 quote:Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that Moscow and Minsk drew "red lines" for Kiev, crossing which he would receive an answer, but at the same time expressed the opinion that the United States was pushing Ukraine to war. “This is just the essence of the war, about which you are now debating, and we have:“ Oh, Ukraine will fight. Yes, not Ukraine, the Americans are pushing them to war, ”Lukashenko said. Answering the question of how to properly behave with Kiev in such a situation, Lukashenka said that "everything was done very correctly by the president of Russia." "I support it. We drew" red lines ". Stepped on the" red line "- get it!" - continued the Belarusian president. In response to a clarifying question whether a missile attack on the territory of Ukraine could be the answer, Lukashenka said that "not only." "Everything there is. If you drew a" red line ", then you drew it for what? So that no one crosses it," he stressed. Apologies for Google translation.
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Feb 6, 2022 14:30
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Ah, okay. It's a different clip.
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Feb 6, 2022 14:42
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https://twitter.com/SprottenMarty/status/1489992408519610372 Lets talk more about who's media is escalating the situation with inflammatory rhetoric
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Feb 6, 2022 15:49
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Conspiratiorist posted:Sorry, I'm drinking straight from the tap so I don't have much in the way of comprehensive analyses. what do the symbols mean this is literally illegible to me
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Feb 6, 2022 16:08
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Whoever this guy is, pretty mean to draw devil horns on him.
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Feb 6, 2022 16:20
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THE BAR posted:Whoever this guy is, pretty mean to draw devil horns on him. This is Polish Bernie Sanders, if we omit a few details.
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Feb 6, 2022 16:28
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FishBulbia posted:what do the symbols mean Red icons are peacekeeping forces. Areas without red icons are currently terrorised by western homofascist mobs. HTH
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Feb 6, 2022 16:32
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is Polish Bernie Sanders, if we omit a few details. Nah, I wish he was like Sanders. Tusk is very centre-left.
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Feb 6, 2022 16:33
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Terminally Bored posted:Nah, I wish he was like Sanders. Tusk is very centre-left. So is Sanders, among the Deep Thinkers Online  https://politicalcompass.org/uselection2020 Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Feb 6, 2022 |
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Feb 6, 2022 16:51
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What are the thread recommendations for accessible and not too dated documentaries about the collapse of the USSR or the aftermath of that? I'd like to throw a couple of links at someone, but realised that I don't actually know of any.
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Feb 6, 2022 17:19
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Rust Martialis posted:So is Sanders, among the Deep Thinkers Online
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Feb 6, 2022 17:47
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a podcast for cats posted:What are the thread recommendations for accessible and not too dated documentaries about the collapse of the USSR or the aftermath of that? I know Stephen Kotkin wrote a book on the subject, and this panel discussion came up on a search. It's not quite what you asked for, and I haven't watched it myself yet, but it's probably a decent starting point. https://www.c-span.org/video/?169713-1/armageddon-averted
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Feb 6, 2022 17:56
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Terminally Bored posted:Nah, I wish he was like Sanders. Tusk is very centre-left. I was not characterising Tusk’s politics there, only the extent of hatred and the kind of accusations he earns from domestic right-wingers.
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Feb 6, 2022 18:00
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a podcast for cats posted:What are the thread recommendations for accessible and not too dated documentaries about the collapse of the USSR or the aftermath of that? Serhii Plokhyy's The Last Empire: The Final Days of the Soviet Union is good, though it's been a while since I read it.
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Feb 6, 2022 18:03
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Alchenar posted:People describe NATO as an 'anti Russia alliance' but the truth is that throughout the 90's and most of the 00's NATO has had a real crisis of identity. Everyone in Europe drew down their conventional forces significantly, and even as NATO expanded eastwards the amount of forces deployed by Allies in Germany got reduced by more and more. There's been a long running argument between 'NATO is about Russia', 'NATO is an obsolete relic we keep around for form's sake', 'NATO can protect southern Europe from instability in Africa/the Middle East', and 'NATO can be the expeditionary wing of the EU projecting stability in it's neighbourhood'. If there was such an identity crisis for NATO in then '90s, what was the motivation for the Baltics joining the alliance? Because I only see Russia as their sole security concern. Likewise, what did the other NATO members gain from them joining? It sure seems like NATO never dropped it's anti-Russia position even after the collapse of the USSR. Of course NATO can walk and chew bubblegum at the same time, so the other raisons d'etre you list could also be valid simultaneously. But it always was and always has had an anti-Russia dimension to it.
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Feb 6, 2022 18:20
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TipTow posted:If there was such an identity crisis for NATO in then '90s, what was the motivation for the Baltics joining the alliance? Because I only see Russia as their sole security concern. Likewise, what did the other NATO members gain from them joining? It sure seems like NATO never dropped it's anti-Russia position even after the collapse of the USSR. It's a military alliance and Russia is the biggest military nearby that's not invited to the party, so it'll always be about Russia until Russia joins or NATO dissolves.
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Feb 6, 2022 18:28
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TipTow posted:If there was such an identity crisis for NATO in then '90s, what was the motivation for the Baltics joining the alliance? Because I only see Russia as their sole security concern. Likewise, what did the other NATO members gain from them joining? It sure seems like NATO never dropped it's anti-Russia position even after the collapse of the USSR. Well, obviously there's only one country that poses a serious Article 5 risk in Europe and that's a large part of why the Baltics wanted in. But NATO is also a significant part of the Western international system and most ex-Warsaw Pact countries saw accession as being hand in hand with EU membership as being a natural part of reintegration of the European order they had been shut out. If you look at the language of the texts and press releases around each phase of expansion there's basically no mention oblique or otherwise of Russia or the risk of state-on-state warfare, the reason it was so easy and uncontroversial in NATO was because most member states took the position that we were past Russia as an issue. e: note that the EU also has a mutual defence clause as per the Treaty of Lisbon. There aren't really any organisational structures behind that though because the unspoken assumption is that NATO is the vehicle that does serious collective defence coordination for member states. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Feb 6, 2022 |
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Feb 6, 2022 18:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I was not characterising Tusk’s politics there, only the extent of hatred and the kind of accusations he earns from domestic right-wingers. Oh, ok. In that case Tusk is the boogeyman for the Polish right, pretty much the only person who Kaczynski fears just because he was so successful before coming back to Poland. Tusk left his position as PM in 2014 to become the president of the European Council which was a pretty big deal at the time. PO is still laughably incompetent policy-wise (think modern Labour post Corbyn, just empty performative poo poo) and their only redeeming quality is that they weren't actively dismantling the democratic system from inside out. Not that it worked that well or fair to begin with.
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Feb 6, 2022 20:03
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As an EU politician, I really enjoyed Tusk. But then again, I’m a Verhofstadt enjoyer, and my preferences for EU would definitely make a fair number of people uneasy.
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Feb 6, 2022 20:18
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Alchenar posted:Well, obviously there's only one country that poses a serious Article 5 risk in Europe and that's a large part of why the Baltics wanted in. But NATO is also a significant part of the Western international system and most ex-Warsaw Pact countries saw accession as being hand in hand with EU membership as being a natural part of reintegration of the European order they had been shut out. But yeah, NATO being part of the package of being a "modern Western nation" would be an obvious reason to join, even with no fear of Russia. Arguably that same idea would also be a reason for NATO members to accept these eastern applicants, either from an idealistic position or to solidify a pro-Western position that would ensure continuous market access. NATO didn't need to be anything but a cool kids club.
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Feb 6, 2022 20:34
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TipTow posted:If there was such an identity crisis for NATO in then '90s, what was the motivation for the Baltics joining the alliance? Because I only see Russia as their sole security concern. Likewise, what did the other NATO members gain from them joining? It sure seems like NATO never dropped it's anti-Russia position even after the collapse of the USSR. The baltic members got in more because of their own efforts than because of (and if anything probably in spite of) pushes from major nato members. And it was still ~a decade from seeking membership to actually getting in. They appear to have seen their situation as much more precarious long-term and wanted insurance against Russian interference or expansion. If anything they seem to have been thinking farther ahead than mid-90s NATO
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Feb 6, 2022 21:28
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The main opposition to Yeltsin were various flavors of red-brown revanschists that were aggressively militaristic and the baltics saw a significant risk of them gaining power
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Feb 6, 2022 21:46
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:It's a military alliance and Russia is the biggest military nearby that's not invited to the party, so it'll always be about Russia until Russia joins or NATO dissolves. That's such awful nonsense... imagine if anybody said that about the US. Venezuela's politics is all about the US until Venezuela has an American puppet installed.
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Feb 6, 2022 22:15
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Ugh can we stop the Russian invasion solely to prevent an uptick in full gopnikism
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Feb 7, 2022 04:05
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Ugh can we stop the Russian invasion solely to prevent an uptick in full gopnikism Gopniks were a thing everywhere in ex-USSR. Edit: https://rebaltica.lv/2022/02/asv-sankcijam-aizverot-tranzita-celus-belaruskalij-meklejis-iespejas-ventspili/ Some local weasels are trying to figure out if they can profiteer on Lithuania shutting Belaruskaliy transit down. If I had to guess, it won't quite work out. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 09:01 on Feb 7, 2022 |
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Feb 7, 2022 07:49
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