|
Yeah but if you read the Iraqi Perspectives Project this is literally the same reasoning Saddam's leadership were using for why the US threat to invade was definitely a bluff: 'They don't have the hundreds of thousands of troops needed to besiege and invest the major urban areas of the country, there's no way they will do a cross-country drive with two divisons supported by massive air and fires superiority!' If it's still all a bluff, what's the suddent capitulation that Putin is looking to see happen in the next week or two? Ukraine is definitely feeling the pressure, but it doesn't seem like there's any risk of government collapse or popular pressure to make concessions. (Putin can of course choose to back down, which from our perspective is going to be impossible to distinguish from this all always having been a bluff)
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 10:23
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 16, 2024 09:35 |
|
|
Libluini posted:Probably yes to the first, but what the gently caress are you smoking to the latter. War isn't a binary between ALL CAPS FULL INVASION and a bluff, there are more options you can do, like e.g. just grabbing more bits of Ukraine but stopping at Kyiv instead of full occupation.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 10:25
|
|
|
Edit: Never mind, should’ve finished unread posts first.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 10:25
|
|
|
Libluini posted:In other news, Ukrainian ambassadors asks for 12000 anti-tank missiles from Germany, receives awkward silence The amount may indicate that it's about Panzerfaust 3's which is an RPG rather than a guided missile, those are more affordable. The phrase Panzerabwehrraketten could mean either.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 10:32
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Yeah but if you read the Iraqi Perspectives Project this is literally the same reasoning Saddam's leadership were using for why the US threat to invade was definitely a bluff: 'They don't have the hundreds of thousands of troops needed to besiege and invest the major urban areas of the country, there's no way they will do a cross-country drive with two divisons supported by massive air and fires superiority!' Iraqis had no personal stake in Saddam's power whil Ukrainians see this as an attack on their homeland... And iirc the population and power difference was 300M/25M while here it is 144M/40M. Any army on army conflict would be bloody beyond belief and the public wouldn't take it for long unless it's done in a month The state Duma will look into recognizing the DNR/LNR today or tomorrow which can be the win Putin tries to take home and a strategic total loss of Ukraine in the "minor aggression" scenario. I don't see a good exit for Putin here, play stupid games win stupid prizes
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 10:45
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:The amount may indicate that it's about Panzerfaust 3's which is an RPG rather than a guided missile, those are more affordable. The phrase Panzerabwehrraketten could mean either. The article slapped a picture of guided US anti-tank missiles getting loaded on top, so it's not very clear. Normally, a Panzerfaust would count as a Panzerabwehrhandwaffe though (infantry anti-tank equipment). Panzerabwehrraketen are guided and unguided missile systems. A MILAN is a Panzerabwehrrakete, a Panzerfaust 3 is not. Edit: If you want to specify a guided missile system only, you call it "Panzerabwehrlenkrakete", but that's about it. As long as it's not a case of journalists understanding jack poo poo about what they're writing, the article is probably talking about our HOT or MILAN-systems.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 10:48
|
|
|
Somaen posted:Iraqis had no personal stake in Saddam's power whil Ukrainians see this as an attack on their homeland... And iirc the population and power difference was 300M/25M while here it is 144M/40M. Any army on army conflict would be bloody beyond belief and the public wouldn't take it for long unless it's done in a month But Russia has a good long-term exit: Invade to Dniepr, cut off Kyiv, install a friendly regime (or even outright annexation), and then simply turtle up and wait for West to give up sanctions in 5-10 years. In 30 years' time, it's still a win for Russia if they have Ukraine as their southwestern buffer. It's likely Russia reads West as ultimately unwilling to engage in protracted hostile sanctions rounds against Russia over Ukraine. And what else would there be? World War 3 over Ukrainian steppes?
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 10:57
|
|
|
El Perkele posted:World War 3 over Ukrainian steppes? Let's not be overly dramatic, there will be no World War 3. For one, China doesn't really care, and a lot of other Non-European countries won't, either. So at best it's just another European war. We had lots of those in the past, sadly. We can deal with that.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:08
|
|
|
I agree that I don't think there are any good outcomes for Russia, I'm unconvinced that Putin's personal calculus over what he cares about and what he is willing to sacrifice to get it is aligned with what we think is obviously sensible (I'm not saying he's Hitler, I'm saying that his cost/benefit analysis is clearly different to that of the casual western observer and it would be dangerous to make assumptions as to what he will do on the basis of what we think we would do).
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:12
|
|
|
Libluini posted:... At the very least they could send some broomsticks, I think.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:13
|
|
|
El Perkele posted:But Russia has a good long-term exit: Invade to Dniepr, cut off Kyiv, install a friendly regime (or even outright annexation), and then simply turtle up and wait for West to give up sanctions in 5-10 years. In 30 years' time, it's still a win for Russia if they have Ukraine as their southwestern buffer. It's likely Russia reads West as ultimately unwilling to engage in protracted hostile sanctions rounds against Russia over Ukraine. And what else would there be? World War 3 over Ukrainian steppes? I don't see it. Even putting aside the military angle, they can't change people's attitudes by force and that would be a massive tract of land to assume responsibility for. Paying to occupy and integrate even half of a country of 44 million while at the same time having destroyed their trade relationships with the rest of Europe would be dire
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:24
|
|
|
El Perkele posted:But Russia has a good long-term exit: Invade to Dniepr, cut off Kyiv, install a friendly regime (or even outright annexation), and then simply turtle up and wait for West to give up sanctions in 5-10 years. In 30 years' time, it's still a win for Russia if they have Ukraine as their southwestern buffer. It's likely Russia reads West as ultimately unwilling to engage in protracted hostile sanctions rounds against Russia over Ukraine. And what else would there be? World War 3 over Ukrainian steppes? The question is if Russia has 5-10 years. I'd argue that Putin is going all in due to knowing that it's all down hill from here and was trying to lock in a status quo with NATO/EU, because in the coming years Russia's energy leverage will decrease. Reminder that this started with Russia not selling gas on the spot market and trying to lock in countries into long term gas contracts Just this year these infrastructure events will finish that will remove the "Europeans will freeze" weapon on countries that are significantly dependant on Russia's electricity/gas imports: 1) Finnish nuclear plant 2) Polish-Lithuanian gas interconnector 3) Baltics joining the European power grid -- oops this isn't for this year 4) Norway-Poland pipeline 5) Greek LNG terminal 6) Bulgarian-Greek gas interconnector Germany, Hungary and Austria are a different story but they are also a part of the green transformation and the current events will accelerate that. Long term Putin is hosed and it's largely because he built a rent seeking petrostate instead of a normal country Somaen fucked around with this message at 12:00 on Feb 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:30
|
|
|
Somaen posted:Long term Putin is hosed and it's largely because he built a rent seeking petrostate instead of a normal country hey now, plenty of other people were involved in building that petrostate. putin simply appropriated its assets for
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:39
|
|
|
Flavahbeast posted:I don't see it. Even putting aside the military angle, they can't change people's attitudes by force and that would be a massive tract of land to assume responsibility for. Paying to occupy and integrate even half of a country of 44 million while at the same time having destroyed their trade relationships with the rest of Europe would be dire How much are they paying to the Donbas warlord states? Is it really that expensive? Seems like Russia is fine with just letting local warlords run poo poo on the ground and stay inside military bases. (Of course this only works in eastern Ukraine)
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:46
|
|
|
Gee I wonder which country’s financial advisors and consultants used Russias weakest moment to completely sell off and dismantle their industrial and economic base and fire sell it for cheap for the entire Yelstin administration which ended up turning Russia into a rent seeking Petroleum state
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:47
|
|
|
Flavahbeast posted:I don't see it. Even putting aside the military angle, they can't change people's attitudes by force and that would be a massive tract of land to assume responsibility for. Paying to occupy and integrate even half of a country of 44 million while at the same time having destroyed their trade relationships with the rest of Europe would be dire Which is assuming Russia can even take Ukrainian urban centers with relative ease. It is certainly possible but if army units or militias dig in and refuse to give up there really is no easy or fast way to take a city. It seems like a significant risk factor.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:52
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:Gee I wonder which country’s financial advisors and consultants used Russias weakest moment to completely sell off and dismantle their industrial and economic base and fire sell it for cheap for the entire Yelstin administration which ended up turning Russia into a rent seeking Petroleum state I'm guessing it wasn't Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 11:55
|
|
|
Flavahbeast posted:I don't see it. Even putting aside the military angle, they can't change people's attitudes by force and that would be a massive tract of land to assume responsibility for. Paying to occupy and integrate even half of a country of 44 million while at the same time having destroyed their trade relationships with the rest of Europe would be dire They don't need to capture half the country, just overrun enough to make the government fold and if the government does not fold then capture the Crimean canal and maybe formally annex Donetsk and Luhansk if they really want to take that thorn out of Ukraines side.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:00
|
|
|
Somaen posted:Germany, Hungary and Austria are a different story but they are also a part of the green transformation and the current events will accelerate that. Point of order, the green transformation makes central europe more dependent on Russian gas, not less. We are still very far (multiple decades) away from when there is sufficient renewable+storage capacity to handle the times when it's both dark and not windy. This means that Germany must have substantial dispatchable capacity to back up their intermittent power, and they are continuing to run down their baseload production. Given the massive methane leaks from Russian gas production, the most environmentally friendly way for Germany to supply their domestic power for the next few decades would be to start fracking their shale deposits. But that can't be done because someone made a documentary full of lies about it or something.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:05
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:Gee I wonder which country’s financial advisors and consultants used Russias weakest moment to completely sell off and dismantle their industrial and economic base and fire sell it for cheap for the entire Yelstin administration which ended up turning Russia into a rent seeking Petroleum state i again check the nationality and history of messrs Chernomyrdin, Yeltsin, Khodorkovsky, Berezovsky, Chubais, et. al. and conclude that yes, without those pesky nefarious meddling american advisors, the post-Soviet russian economy would have smoothly transitioned to an efficient, competitive economy that would have magicked away all the problems that led to it collapsing in the first place Putin is, of course, as we all know, VERY dissatisfied with the course of privatization and has worked tirelessly to ensure that national wealth is returned to the people, and himself lives an austere pauper's life
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:20
|
|
|
Virtually every Russia watcher I know would agree that the West's handling of Russia's economic liberalisation was pretty disastrous (particually in comparison to the success stories of how the rest of Eastern Europe has been integrated into the European order), but the rough balance of opinion is that Yeltsin took the advice that he wanted, did what he wanted, and that a Russia that was already smarting from the humiliation of 'losing' the cold war and no longer being a superpower would probably have violently rejected a more assertive group of Westerners telling them how to run their own country.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:26
|
|
|
Russia should have followed Belarus's example and they would be an industrial powerhouse right now 
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:31
|
|
|
Seeing as these stories were heavily reported in the UK media, I guess these tweets deserve to be posted here: https://twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/status/1491860343160721408 https://twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/1493016664354533376
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:34
|
|
|
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-reaffirms-desire-to-join-nato-after-envoy-comments/a-60768298
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:53
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Virtually every Russia watcher I know would agree that the West's handling of Russia's economic liberalisation was pretty disastrous (particually in comparison to the success stories of how the rest of Eastern Europe has been integrated into the European order), but the rough balance of opinion is that Yeltsin took the advice that he wanted, did what he wanted, and that a Russia that was already smarting from the humiliation of 'losing' the cold war and no longer being a superpower would probably have violently rejected a more assertive group of Westerners telling them how to run their own country. Sounds like we (US) probably shouldn't have invested so heavily in his victory. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Feb 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:54
|
|
|
fuctifino posted:Seeing as these stories were heavily reported in the UK media, I guess these tweets deserve to be posted here: In a twitter battle between RT employees and Mark Ames on one side and The Sun on the other I cheer for swift embrace of death
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 12:57
|
|
|
whomst is making me read an ames take using the word "angloid" in tyool 2022 i consider this a violence and will make you read 10 molly mckew takes as penance not posting them here tho you're obligated to go read them on your own.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 13:10
|
|
|
fuctifino posted:Seeing as these stories were heavily reported in the UK media, I guess these tweets deserve to be posted here: I think i'd take this stuff more seriously if Ames and his ilk ever said anything about the DNR/LNR nazis or the Russian 'Wagner' group.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 13:30
|
|
|
fuctifino posted:Seeing as these stories were heavily reported in the UK media, I guess these tweets deserve to be posted here: Is the case being sold here that these nazis represent the entirety of people of Ukraine and thus Putin must invade to rescue them from themselves? Suppose it is not, then what does the discourse of "there are bad apples on both sides" serve?
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 13:31
|
|
|
^^^^ The former, of course. Libluini posted:
Probably should just ask them for covid vaccine instead. Ukraine is horribly behind on those, though various sources of anti-vaxing like... the Russian Orthodox Church I think I've heard might be a bigger problem than supply, not sure. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 13:40 on Feb 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 13:35
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/mattb0401/status/1493201469075595264?t=I2kx4AERlKl0FlSEfSUqfQ&s=19 Still the only person in Russia taking Covid seriously, shame that only for his personal well-being
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 13:41
|
|
|
Goatson posted:Is the case being sold here that these nazis represent the entirety of people of Ukraine and thus Putin must invade to rescue them from themselves? The issue is that the bad apples keep getting pushed as legitimate in the media?
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 13:48
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:Gee I wonder which country’s financial advisors and consultants used Russias weakest moment to completely sell off and dismantle their industrial and economic base and fire sell it for cheap for the entire Yelstin administration which ended up turning Russia into a rent seeking Petroleum state West hosed Russia over in the 90s, but that was 30 years ago. Russia has stood on its own legs more than long enough to have built something other than a patronage-based oligarchy. fuctifino posted:Seeing as these stories were heavily reported in the UK media, I guess these tweets deserve to be posted here: I don’t think we have done anything to deserve these tweets here, thanks. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 13:58 on Feb 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 13:52
|
|
|
I don't believe every Ukrainian militia is a neo-nazi front, but it is concerning that neo-nazi Ukrainian militias seem to show up in every puff piece. Not necessarily an indictment of Ukraine, but certainly of the western journalists who seem to only have contacts w/ nazis, and are either too stupid to recognize their patches, or willingly obfuscating their relation.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 14:04
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:I don't believe every Ukrainian militia is a neo-nazi front, but it is concerning that neo-nazi Ukrainian militias seem to show up in every puff piece. I fail to see how this matters in any way outside of such publications being low quality.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 14:10
|
|
|
It might just be journalistic bias. Controversy generates more clicks than ordinary soldiers. The omission of the neo-Nazis on the Russian side is kinda glaring when viewed from this point.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 14:11
|
|
|
It's also that there are only like 5 journalists that normally cover Ukraine, so when the topic is hot they go to someone without a clue, so you end up with stuff like this: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1492121091518738435
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 14:17
|
|
|
anilEhilated posted:It might just be journalistic bias. Controversy generates more clicks than ordinary soldiers. Oh no this is a really consistent thing all over where journalists/producers are underresourced and under time pressure and are like 'we need a person to talk to camera for this thing' and the fact is that fringe groups are desperate for visibility and often extremely willing to drop what they are doing to show up at a time and place to talk to a camera, whereas more mainstream groups who are happy with their profile won't. And then when you know that someone will show up and talk to a camera and not completely fall apart that person becomes a 'contact' and they're often tapped up again the next time you need to talk to someone. There's an awful lot of self-selection bias going on.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 14:25
|
|
|
Libluini posted:Let's not be overly dramatic, there will be no World War 3. For one, China doesn't really care, and a lot of other Non-European countries won't, either. So at best it's just another European war. We had lots of those in the past, sadly. We can deal with that. Apologies if it was unclear. I tried to say that any scenario where EU or NATO as whole will seriously consider actual military response against Russia over Ukraine is implausible.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 14:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 16, 2024 09:35 |
|
|
OddObserver posted:It's also that there are only like 5 journalists that normally cover Ukraine, so when the topic is hot they go to someone without a clue, so you end up with stuff like this: Jesus loving Christ. Not even an opinion column, either.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2022 14:35
|
|