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TheGreyGhost posted:I hated him and thought there was no way he and Allen could live up to their raw arm talent with the mechanics and decision making they had, much less the lack of touch. sounds to me like the moral of the story is that the coaches and work environment are hugely influential which makes evaluating prospects even more difficult because backwards looking comparative studies are muddled by discrepancies in coaching staff!
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Feb 19, 2022 04:22
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Ornery and Hornery posted:sounds to me like the moral of the story is that the coaches and work environment are hugely influential which makes evaluating prospects even more difficult because backwards looking comparative studies are muddled by discrepancies in coaching staff! Well, there’s that and there’s the inherent limitations of everything. Football scouting is just essentially “social science research fallacies” in service of a market inefficiency. Tape grinding tells you what guys did, but can you control for the college coach being a scheme wizard or moron? Can you project what a dude will do going from a Mickey Mouse offense to the Gruden tree? How are you thinking about the competition? How are you examining whether a team was actually doing what they’re supposed to on a play or freelancing? All of these things are essentially fundamental constraints of what’s ostensibly the most direct comparison/projection source for it, and it’s part of why the industry has so many charlatans with hot takes. You can get a great feel for what type of player a guy is, what they tend to do well, and what they probably should work on. All those things need to be understood as contextual and malleable. The combine tells you what a player’s athletic profile is. It can illuminate guys who were misused or underdeveloped as players but have high potential. It can confirm terrible biases by making you believe a player isn’t fast enough to play even when you’re comparing an ideal condition sprint to game speed. It can show you whether guys care enough to try to improve on expected performances. The interviews can tell you what type of personality you’re dealing with, but it’s also capable of being gamed by both sides. Does the player have an incentive to be candid with you? Are they projecting an image to you? What types of personality traits can your team work with and develop? What things will make a guy fit into a room? Does a guy show the processing power in understanding tape or the board to show he’s going to immediately handle the capacity, or are your assistants going to be working on that processing with him? What things about his prior situation can you learn that change how you may view some tape or measurable a? We all have some incredible biases in how we evaluate things. Some people love the quantitative data of the combine and focus on it because you can stack rank dudes like a GE sales chart. Some people lean on tape because it’s the most translatable data, even if it requires a lot of investment by the scout to learn what they’re looking at and evaluating and all the caveats we need. Some people believe interviews are important because hey what if he’s Jamarcus and doesn’t give a gently caress. The charlatans in this industry like to pretend they have some infallible genius rooted largely in the first two, but the truth is that this is an insanely flawed process that’s so inefficient you can miss on a guy 200 times still despite having more data than ever. The worst thing any draftnik can do is pretend that they were never wrong about an evaluation because it just shows they lack an ability to adapt or change any viewpoints or accept the inherent uncertainty of the profession.
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Feb 19, 2022 07:19
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I never doubted Justin Herbert
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Feb 19, 2022 08:26
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Herbert's Oregon tape and Chargers tape might as well be two different people The gently caress was Christobal doing up there
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Feb 19, 2022 09:24
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Herbert's Oregon tape and Chargers tape might as well be two different people switching out herbie's gatorade for bone hurting juice or something
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Feb 19, 2022 09:41
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a neat cape posted:I never doubted Justin Herbert You really didn't. It's a well earned victory lap since me, and a bunch of others, were ready to bury you in laughter for believing in a tall, dumb, toolsy QB. When Herbert was drafted strong consensus said he was the next Josh Allen. At the time that was a bad thing!
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Feb 19, 2022 10:33
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Josh Allen going from one of the worst QBs in the league his first two years to having a statistically average Derek Carr season, but with rushing isn't something you can predict. It's like how Cousins was bad for his first 5 years, but then became a perfectly acceptable QB. It always makes me wonder if someone like Haskins could be good in the right environment. Instead of being cut after 14 starts under three HCs.
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Feb 19, 2022 14:13
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It's hard to even call Herbert a project because he didn't even sit on the bench and learn/be mentored etc., he almost immediately stepped in and started producing thanks to Chargers Doctors Things. Mostly makes you look at Oregon and go lol you guys are dumb
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Feb 19, 2022 15:30
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Nodoze posted:Mostly makes you look at Oregon and go lol you guys are dumb This was deffo my take away.
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Feb 19, 2022 15:51
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Nodoze posted:It's hard to even call Herbert a project because he didn't even sit on the bench and learn/be mentored etc., he almost immediately stepped in and started producing thanks to Chargers Doctors Things. Mostly makes you look at Oregon and go lol you guys are dumb The articles I've read about Herbert's pre draft training makes it seem like Oregon didn't really emphasize footwork for their quarterbacks; they just let them throw from a platform they were comfortable with which if I had to guess works when a warm body like Tyler Shough is the quarterback but not when a guy with real talent is playing. This likely explained the inexplicable missed passes in college and was pretty easily fixed by QB coach John Beck before the draft even happened. He's a unicorn in that all the issues he had attached to him before entering the league were either way overstated, didn't actually exist or were fixed by the time he played a game. Except arguably throwing with touch. Maybe don't throw a fast ball to the shallow cross or the checkdown every time, Justin.
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Feb 19, 2022 16:05
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Chucktesla posted:The articles I've read about Herbert's pre draft training makes it seem like Oregon didn't really emphasize footwork for their quarterbacks; they just let them throw from a platform they were comfortable with which if I had to guess works when a warm body like Tyler Shough is the quarterback but not when a guy with real talent is playing. This likely explained the inexplicable missed passes in college and was pretty easily fixed by QB coach John Beck before the draft even happened. He's a unicorn in that all the issues he had attached to him before entering the league were either way overstated, didn't actually exist or were fixed by the time he played a game. Reminder that he had 3 different head coaches, OCs and QB coaches while at Oregon, and his best WR got a cup of coffee in the league.
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Feb 19, 2022 16:30
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dphi posted:Reminder that he had 3 different head coaches, OCs and QB coaches while at Oregon, and his best WR got a cup of coffee in the league. This is the first time since he was a freshman in college that he'll have the same OC and QB coach for two straight years
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Feb 19, 2022 17:19
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dphi posted:Reminder that he had 3 different head coaches, OCs and QB coaches while at Oregon, and his best WR got a cup of coffee in the league. And they still beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl 
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Feb 19, 2022 17:36
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Apparently Daniel Jeremiah said that Travon Walker might go higher than Kayvon Thibodeaux? I don’t think I’ve seen a prospect that people are more all over the map on than Walker. Between Brugler loving him and now Jeremiah maybe it’s possible he goes way higher than anyone thought. Professor Funk fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 21:28
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Chucktesla posted:Except arguably throwing with touch. Maybe don't throw a fast ball to the shallow cross or the checkdown every time, Justin. Alternatively, he should keep doing it because it's never not hilarious.
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Feb 19, 2022 23:48
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Herbert's Oregon tape and Chargers tape might as well be two different people It's the same tape. Obviously with hindsight I'm acting like I knew Herbert was good all along but he was big gunslinging his entire time in college. His main knocks were abandoning first reads, iffy deep ball accuracy, and terrible footwork. He still had a massive arm, did all the roll outs, all the designed runs, all the tight window throws. Literally almost the same offense he ran in college just with less moving pockets. Staley really fixed his footwork which led to his much better deep ball but I dunno it's not much different. Josh Allen was the complete what the gently caress. I don't know how that happened. He straight up sucked in Wyoming, even with the lack of talent. Constant sailed balls, terrible decision making, awful form. That's got to be the biggest turn around in NFL history. Maybe even more so than Kyler learning to go through reads. Edit: I'm also not sure if everyone gets the same funny post as the first result when they google 2020 nfl draft thread somethingawful Doltos fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 23:52
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Not since Ryan Mallet have I been so snakebitten
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Feb 20, 2022 00:21
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At some point in the 2020 draft the thread convinces themselves that burrow is bad but the craziest post is on page one when someone said tua was throwing rockets in college which lol
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Feb 20, 2022 03:53
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Chucktesla posted:At some point in the 2020 draft the thread convinces themselves that burrow is bad but the craziest post is on page one when someone said tua was throwing rockets in college which lol Tua literally did have better velocity pre hip injury but rockets is uh…bad verbiage. 2020 thread is wild for me to revisit because I think I was at one point the only person defending burrow as showing better tape than Tua with throws that would translate better since they didn’t necessitate freak receivers (though they help). I think I nailed Tua and burrow but holy poo poo did I not like Herbert’s tape. The system changes and footwork should’ve been tells that the ceiling could be reached but what a weird year.
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Feb 20, 2022 05:50
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I defended Burrow because he obviously owned and you’d have to be dumb to think otherwise.
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Feb 20, 2022 06:07
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a neat cape posted:I never doubted Justin Herbert
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Feb 20, 2022 06:15
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YOLOsubmarine posted:I defended Burrow because he obviously owned and you’d have to be dumb to think otherwise. I think most people were downplaying Burrow because he basically played on a college football super offense with CEH and Chase and Jefferson
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Feb 20, 2022 06:19
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LiquidFriend posted:It was a good call. Looking at his final year at Oregon, just didn't really see it. Guess I really undersold how many things were really just correctable issues. I watch a lot of MWC and Pac 12 football because of where I live, and I knew that that Oregon team had NOTHING around Herbert. And that that offense was extremely conservative. They finally let him improvise in the Rose Bowl and it was probably the best he looked all year. Josh Allen I have no loving idea how that dude turned into anything good. He was BAD at Wyoming
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Feb 20, 2022 06:21
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Burrow went from mediocre college QB to the best season of all time and dropping Rodgers level dimes in one year so it's understandable that people expected some serious regression.
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Feb 20, 2022 06:21
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a neat cape posted:I think most people were downplaying Burrow because he basically played on a college football super offense with CEH and Chase and Jefferson Yea, but he wasn’t just dumping it off to open guys and letting them make things happen, he was throwing accurately all over the field and into tight windows. It was obvious he could play once he wasn’t running a 1960s offense.
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Feb 20, 2022 06:30
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Doltos posted:It's the same tape. Obviously with hindsight I'm acting like I knew Herbert was good all along but he was big gunslinging his entire time in college. His main knocks were abandoning first reads, iffy deep ball accuracy, and terrible footwork. He still had a massive arm, did all the roll outs, all the designed runs, all the tight window throws. Literally almost the same offense he ran in college just with less moving pockets. Staley really fixed his footwork which led to his much better deep ball but I dunno it's not much different. Kyler stopped making reads after the injury.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:58
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How dare they attack such a sacred event https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1495512685303189506
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Feb 20, 2022 22:52
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The Athletic put out their pre-combine mock draft, I can pull snippets if y'all would like. Giants got mocked Neal and Ojabo at 5 and 7, respectively
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Feb 23, 2022 00:45
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They probably mocked a corner to the Chiefs for the tenth year in a row
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Feb 23, 2022 00:50
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kiimo posted:They probably mocked a corner to the Chiefs for the tenth year in a row Corner? Chiefs need weapons for Mahomes. OLine? Maybe?
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Feb 23, 2022 01:01
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You are confused my point is that there is a running joke that every big service seems to mock corners to the Chiefs every year whether they need them or not its kind of eerie. Chiefs need WR or DE in the first. I will settle for nothing else.
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Feb 23, 2022 01:04
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Carlosologist posted:The Athletic put out their pre-combine mock draft, I can pull snippets if y'all would like. Giants got mocked Neal and Ojabo at 5 and 7, respectively Ojabo rising hard is weird to me. I guess someone thinks they can teach him to put power into his game. He's super tentative when he has to go inside or gets crack blocked. Still though his edge rush and speed is supreme with the leverage he gets going wide and if he's actually going top 10 now then I think that's got to be the reason. I just don't know how you look at his hand fighting or how easily he's moved and want that over all the other options at edge in this draft.
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Feb 23, 2022 01:11
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kiimo posted:They probably mocked a corner to the Chiefs for the tenth year in a row 30. Kansas City Chiefs Prospect to watch: Defense — Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan Positional versatility is the name of the game here. Hill has the speed required to be a long-term corner in the NFL, though he wore a few hats as a safety/nickel inside two very different defenses in three years at Michigan. He wasn’t always perfect, but Hill’s natural ability usually found a way. Where is his home on the field, and how ready is he to contribute at one spot?
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Feb 23, 2022 01:13
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I KNEW IT
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Feb 23, 2022 01:19
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KC doesn't even look at first round corners until they've been run off by their original team anyways, but also they should maybe think about their Mathieu replacement
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Feb 23, 2022 01:40
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This is the first I've heard from anyone saying Hill wouldn't play most of his snaps at safety in the NFL. Dude also has the Ravens drafting an ILB at 14, which would make me so sad you guys. Two first round picks in 3 years at linebacker when we've got great dime safeties on the roster.
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Feb 23, 2022 01:54
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Doltos posted:Ojabo rising hard is weird to me. I guess someone thinks they can teach him to put power into his game. He's super tentative when he has to go inside or gets crack blocked. Still though his edge rush and speed is supreme with the leverage he gets going wide and if he's actually going top 10 now then I think that's got to be the reason. I just don't know how you look at his hand fighting or how easily he's moved and want that over all the other options at edge in this draft. He keeps reminding me of Vic Beasley where he's essentially just a gambler. When he can run wide, it's a sack, otherwise he's going to miss a run fit by 5 yards or get stoned if he guesses wrong. Folks, let's talk about some offensive tackles! This is likely a 2 parter because of how long some of the late round guys have been Evan Neal - Alabama Folks, we have an absolutely massive T on our hands. You're going to see him compared to Orlando Brown from a size standpoint, but I think it's fairly important to dissuade people from thinking in those terms beyond the raw size and ability to get downhill. He's an overwhelmingly powerful set and push, where you could very easily see him as almost an overgrown FB on the line. As such, it's essentially like watching defender go at a road buoy. If he sees you or you try to bull him/hit a near lane quickly, you die when he gets a hand on you. He's one of the few Ts you see who can consistently defuse a long-arm or bull rush without really thinking about it. Similarly, if you want a guy to run ISO or be a playside T for Power/Counter, he's a literal genius who will essentially guarantee an edge doesn't cause the run fit to get blown. I'm expecting him to run 5.0 or less and bench well based on the power development and ability to counter. So what do I hate? He's really really raw in handling second order moves. When you watch someone bring a stunt, twist, or delayed blitz, he doesn't always recognize it in enough time to keep things perfectly clean. He'll lose his pad level if he doesn't use it quickly. UGA figured this out after the first game and created some really messy situations for him. If you want to really make him sweat, bring a stunt where the closest man to him is running at his inside shoulder--dude can be put on skates laterally because he overdoes his pass set or tries to just destroy one dude on every play. Additionally, I just don't know if that's going to translate to pass protection in the NFL. If I can get him by just being faster to inside gaps, an NFL DE is going to be able to counter that back outside with speed and some additional spice that he's not ready for. He legitimately might be a better high-end RT prospect than anything else. Someone's going to say you could make him a G like he was in college, but I just don't see it--he's not laterally quick enough to consistently run counter as a backside guy so you're stuck forcing him to either play inside zone and power as your only plays or come up with creative ways to give him a head start. I think the best comparison for him is Ryan Ramczyk in Orlando Brown's body. Charles Cross - Mississippi State Man, I want to believe but Leach's linemen are so weird. Let's start with this--Cross is one of the best pass protecting prospects you will ever get. Full stop, he has more finesse, punch, and mirror ability to his game than almost any pass protector you'll find, because he has more reps, steps, and sets at his disposal than most guys get during their careers in college. His feet are fantastic, especially for Leach guys where they play wide splits and get forced to move around laterally to follow their matchups all the goddamn time. He's also not soft. Usually air raid linemen get a rep for hanging with guys and not finishing blocks, but that's really not the case with Cross--he uses his power once he has a change to finish a play but never to the detriment of blowing his offense with too much aggression. Unfortunately, that athleticism doesn't translate into running reps. They run ISO when they get favorable box counts, but Leach isn't known for doing things like complex runs or really anything that doesn't involve ball in air. Everyone saying they think he's going to be great for zone/power/counter is to a large extent projecting off of what is essentially just him blocking down whenever they check to a run. With that caveat, he's athletic enough to theoretically learn any of those--if you watch him move laterally or linearly, he's fast and capable of running to a spot, pulling, mirroring, or getting into a defender's grill. Theoretically, teaching zone might be the easiest since you can essentially cheat with an experienced G next to him to essentially point out the spots he needs to get to, but it's really on having a good OL coach. Send him to the Browns, and I bet Bill Callahan would make him a pro bowler. I also don't love his bend at times. Since he's in a wide split, he can get away with standing up too much off of the additional space and time away from the QB it affords him. He'll shoot up and lock in, but that's akin to his version of taking plays off. Since he'll have fewer pass sets to do in a game in the NFL, maybe you can improve his focus over time. I like him as a more raw version of Sewell from last year where we just don't know what he can do in the run game but can be a blindside T on passing downs fairly quickly. I would compare him to Laremy Tunsil right now, just more raw. Ikem Okonwu - NC State Probably the most "balanced" of the elite prospects. He's not the mauler that Neal is or the pure technician that Cross is--doesn't have the frame for either if we're being honest. He's fairly short and doesn't have the long arms or weight that would make him an utterly ginormous hype machine prospect, but holy poo poo is he clean. When you watch him get his hands on someone, he gets the same effect out of his hands that Neal gets out of his entire weight--which would indicate that he's got some slightly better technique for transferring power to his hands into the defender. As such, even though he's short and not as long, it's very hard to guys to get around him, largely because he can redirect them with that power generation and make a gap-shooter wrong. I do think he can be bullrushed at times--watch the Clemson tape and you'll see that he can be long-armed, even if he does have some reasonable counters. I also think he's incredibly clean in zone blocking instances, with some of the best wide/outside zone stretch moves you'll see in the class. So what's my concern? Can he handle consistent power rushers and stunts? He's fast enough, but he doesn't have the length to afford to be wrong too often, meaning he has to be rock solid in understanding his assignments and recognizing where he has to be. That said, if it turns out that he's not long enough to consistently win long-arm or big pass set reps in the NFL, you have a better stop loss option with him than anyone else--he actually could be an elite guard and has already been one in college. People are going to compare him to Rashawn Slater, which I don't think is totally unfair as undersized elite LT prospects, but I do think there are more legitimate concerns given that there is footage of him being bulled in college by elite talent in a way that Slater wasn't. Nick Petit-Frere - Ohio State Another dude who has moved around the line a bunch but is clearly at his best on the left side--he's what you call an ideal state player. When you see him set his feet properly, read properly, and react, he's a top-15 caliber pick, the problem is that he clearly hasn't had enough reps or instruction at LT proper to consistently be where he needs to be--even if that's not an indictment of his actual talent. I love his ability to mirror and move laterally--he's one of the 2-3 best athletes at the position. He's not really a hand power guy so much as a redirecting force that keeps things clean by channeling both sides of a block and attack. He can block downhill, but it's not his inclination on pass sets. What's most bizarre about him is that he doesn't always disconnect his feet from his hands. If he remembers to set his feet and focus on his hands then move, he can keep up with anyone--it just reads like a guy trying to remember coaching cues that he hasn't fully internalized yet. He's got an ideal LT frame though, probably the most pure pass protector frame in the class So, what do I really not like? Again, his feet are weird. He's clearly fast enough but overthinks his steps. He's not a guy who wins with raw power or force, so he can't afford to miss with his feet because there isn't a reserve of power or force behind it. Get him a ladder, and get him thinking in terms of trading focus between his hands and feet, and he might actually be straight up nasty and a Ronnie Stanley type at the next level if he cleans things up. Trevor Penning - Northern Iowa Murderous bastard at LT who sort of stiffs his way through everything by being a raw power monster. As a mauling T, he essentially goes through his blocks, every time. Power? Run a dude through. Counter? Run a dude through. Pass set? Run through a guy's chest, drat the consequences. That all works until you get a guy who can punish you with counters inside or get under your long arm moves--both things he encountered rarely in FCS but still dealt with at times. It's odd because it's the same thing you see with Neal--guys who don't really know how to handle when a defender goes at their inside shoulder which scares you a bit at LT. I think he could be an elite RT right now off of his run blocking ability and tendency to pass set with solid quickness, but he's going to need some tempering as a LT. I covered his biggest weakness with his inside shoulder, but the other thing I would note is that he's another guy who pops out of his stance and doesn't always stay low. In his case, that could be a mixture of coaching weaknesses and ability to get away with things in FCS. If he learned to sit back on pass sets a bit, it would probably fix his over-aggression on passing downs just by virtue of making him balance. Just force him into two-point until the message gets through. Additionally, I see a guy who is more of a grabber than pusher when guys go at him. He can beat a bull rush in college, but I really really worry about that turning into holding calls if he doesn't fix that reflex. I would compare him to Jack Conklin right now in terms of profile and skillset. To come: Day 2-3 guys
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Feb 23, 2022 02:53
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I watched a clip of penning since someone mocked him to the panthers and does he just throw every defender to the ground if he can
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Feb 23, 2022 04:10
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FizFashizzle posted:I watched a clip of penning since someone mocked him to the panthers and does he just throw every defender to the ground if he can Yes. The only thing preventing him from doing that is his pad level and occasional tendency to outstep his own power trying to do it. It’s like Lewan/Nelson levels of desire to murder. As a general note, any of those 5 guys could develop into a pro bowler. It’s a deep draft in terms of frames and physical abilities, just a lot of technical quirks and tendencies that obscure those projections this year.
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Feb 23, 2022 04:42
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Doltos posted:Ojabo rising hard is weird to me. I guess someone thinks they can teach him to put power into his game. He's super tentative when he has to go inside or gets crack blocked. Still though his edge rush and speed is supreme with the leverage he gets going wide and if he's actually going top 10 now then I think that's got to be the reason. I just don't know how you look at his hand fighting or how easily he's moved and want that over all the other options at edge in this draft. People probably think hes this year Jayson/Odafe Oweh, but with actual college production
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Feb 23, 2022 09:36
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