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seems bad
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Feb 23, 2022 16:22
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Somaen posted:Well gently caress, I really wanted to believe that they're not so unhinged. Below is a description of fighting that took place in Mariupol and what is going to happen everywhere Always worth remembering that Russia has a 'habit' of doing ethnic cleansing in nearly every Eastern European invasion they've done.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:22
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GABA ghoul posted:Considering the uprising in Kazakhstan, how likely is it that Putin gets ousted if this personally motivated military adventure turns into a disaster for the Russian army and economy? Currently I don’t see any whatsoever chance of him being ousted.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:23
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GABA ghoul posted:Considering the uprising in Kazakhstan, how likely is it that Putin gets ousted if this personally motivated military adventure turns into a disaster for the Russian army and economy? every single powerbroker in russia is scared shitless of him and there's no way any of them would feel comfortable trying to conspire in secret what with all the spies and assassinations. if there's a mass uprising which there would have to be putin has shown no qualms about being brutal in putting down such threats
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Feb 23, 2022 16:23
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GABA ghoul posted:Considering the uprising in Kazakhstan, how likely is it that Putin gets ousted if this personally motivated military adventure turns into a disaster for the Russian army and economy? Zero. Not even worth discussing in hypotheticals unless Ukraine pulls off some kind of Miracle on the Dnieper and starts marching on Moscow.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:24
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Even before the ethnic cleansing stage an honest to god army on army fighting will be a catastrophic meat grinder. Brotherly nations my rear end
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Feb 23, 2022 16:24
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https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1496498930925940738
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Feb 23, 2022 16:25
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Oh.  Going for Kyiv was pretty much the worst case scenario. Does Russia even have remotely enough troops to take and hold any of big cities in western Ukraine? I really hope that his is Russia leaking mis-information to the US or something, as there's no way something like that won't be long and bloody.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:26
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GABA ghoul posted:Considering the uprising in Kazakhstan, how likely is it that Putin gets ousted if this personally motivated military adventure turns into a disaster for the Russian army and economy? Russians rising up to get the gnome out of the bunker to give him the Gaddafi treatment might be the only good outcome at this point
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Feb 23, 2022 16:26
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dr_rat posted:Oh. Russia definitely has troops to take and hold at least a few major cities. That said, they’ve literally never show themselves to be decent at urban warfare.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:31
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Somaen posted:Russians rising up to get the gnome out of the bunker to give him the Gaddafi treatment might be the only good outcome at this point Like It seems like it require things much more than just things going very wrong for Russia in Ukraine for that to happen. Honestly something like a heart attack seems the most realistic way of him power at the moment.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:33
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GABA ghoul posted:Considering the uprising in Kazakhstan, how likely is it that Putin gets ousted if this personally motivated military adventure turns into a disaster for the Russian army and economy? Unlikely regardless. As for the "if", there's very little chance it becomes a disaster for their army, so it depends on how other countries respond economically.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Russia definitely has troops to take and hold at least a few major cities. That said, they’ve literally never show themselves to be decent at urban warfare. The Russian strategy for urban warfare has been showcased in Syria: no city, no urban warfare.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:33
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the early 1990s featured a great deal of prevarication on both the US and Soviet/Russian sides on how much breakaway nationalism they would really endorse (recall George HW Bush admonishing the Ukrainians not to give in to 'suicidal nationalism' and secede?) I've read analyses before arguing that the first Chechen war in Dec 1994 onwards - the first anti-secession action that Russia undertook as Russia rather than as the Soviets, less than a year after the NATO Partnership for Peace had been launched - which 1) seemingly confirmed every Western observer who had argued that Russian imperialism had not really changed 2) at the same time, convinced Russian observers that they had to improve Russian competence and strength if it wanted to be taken seriously. Chechnya had been expected to be a cakewalk. As the new quagmire wore on, Russia in 1995 and 1996 reached out to other countries on its immediate periphery - post-Gulf-War Iraq on the sanctions regime, the Iran nuclear plant in Bushehr, North Korea nuclear talks, and China (freshly embroiled in the 1995 Taiwan missile crisis). All of these countries are, indeed, on Russia's immediate periphery; no one can argue with that. Still, a tricky choice in friends. A domestic/economic argument is that post-1990s Russia inherited the Soviet overemphasis on military employment, in particular arms exports. Military industries still employed a fifth of the entire workforce and provided a third of GNP. Russian cooperation in sanctions on Libya and Iraq had been extremely costly at home in terms of lost sales and employment, not merely as a far-away foreign policy gesture. Still, if Yeltsin had a Chechen outing as easy as the Americans had found the first Gulf War, perhaps he would not have felt pressured to come up with something.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:33
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That loving dusional gnome is really going to try to take and hold Kyiv? He's going to have an insurgency for the next 5-10 years He's got to be close to death. This is the last gasp of a fragile ego and a shattered mind.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:35
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Boris, hey boris if you nationalize all the oligarch-owned football clubs you could make your covid party problems all go away
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Feb 23, 2022 16:37
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Boris, hey boris LIQUIDATE CHELSEA. MELT DOWN ALL THEIR TROPHIES.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:38
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As to the first tweet: lol. Russia has nothing to threaten American diplomats or the political establishment with that will matter in the slightest. Oh no, a few lobbyists and corrupt legislators won't get to invest in Gazprom anymore. Whatever will they do? Russia seems to think that just because their oligarchs run and stash their money in the west that it's bilateral and Americans will be super bummed to not be able to park their yacht in Sochi.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:38
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ronya posted:A domestic/economic argument is that post-1990s Russia inherited the Soviet overemphasis on military employment, in particular arms exports. Military industries still employed a fifth of the entire workforce and provided a third of GNP. Russian cooperation in sanctions on Libya and Iraq had been extremely costly at home in terms of lost sales and employment, not merely as a far-away foreign policy gesture. Still, if Yeltsin had a Chechen outing as easy as the Americans had found the first Gulf War, perhaps he would not have felt pressured to come up with something. Was it still that high in the 90s? I thought that was more of a 70s Soviet thing when it was something ludicrous like standing army of 5 million, between 20 and 25% employed by the military or in military-adjacent or controlled industries, and the military portion of the budget being astronomical.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:40
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https://twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/1496510020418162688
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Feb 23, 2022 16:40
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Pook Good Mook posted:As to the first tweet: lol. Russia has nothing to threaten American diplomats or the political establishment with that will matter in the slightest. Hey man, that's a huge donor to the GOP and the Trump Organization you are talking about! Going to laugh if sanctions/ economic embargo on Russia lead to the GOP drying up like a salted snail for unknown reasons. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 16:41
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The US live-tweeting its intelligence reports for the past few weeks has been weirdly hilarious.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:41
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I don't think its a given that Ukraine ends up being a big Iraq-style insurgency. If Russian security services do have the purported list and can quickly round up any potential resistors then they can mostly crush an insurgency before it begins.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:41
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Britain is basically the only nation that can actually pass the mythical “sanctions that only put pressure on the ruling class” and we can only get them to do this by taking advantage of Boris’ cowardice and opportunism
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Feb 23, 2022 16:42
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Britain is basically the only nation that can actually pass the mythical “sanctions that only put pressure on the ruling class” and we can only get them to do this by taking advantage of Boris’ cowardice and opportunism Also Cyprus.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:43
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OctaMurk posted:I don't think its a given that Ukraine ends up being a big Iraq-style insurgency. If Russian security services do have the purported list and can quickly round up any potential resistors then they can mostly crush an insurgency before it begins. The Russian military is hilariously inept at dealing with disproportionate warfare or engagements where its anything but a head-on fight. They've struggled in Chechnya, Armenia, and Syria and repeatedly struggle handling mass protests. Also, if they go all-in on a full invasion, bets are off when it comes to sanctions. The longer things go on, the worse it's going to get for the Russian ruling classes.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:45
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Morrow posted:The Russian strategy for urban warfare has been showcased in Syria: no city, no urban warfare. And Grozny. Twice. Russian artillery is maybe the most fearsome in the world, and liberal use of indirect fires is core to their doctrine in every war they've fought.
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Feb 23, 2022 16:45
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Impeccable timing lmao https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/status/1496485004851007500
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Feb 23, 2022 16:47
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What's this a sign of, Ukraine is expecting the Russian military to roll through shortly and is retreating to more defensible lines?
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Feb 23, 2022 16:48
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BoldFace posted:Impeccable timing lmao Yeah my uncle works at Nintendo and says Russia will invade within 48 hours
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Feb 23, 2022 16:48
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Flayer posted:What's this a sign of, Ukraine is expecting the Russian military to roll through shortly and is retreating to more defensible lines? yes, checkpoints are visible installations for civilians to pass through. they are not fortifications, the troops manning these border crossing points are withdrawing to more fortified locations in expectation of an attack
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Feb 23, 2022 16:54
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Randarkman posted:Was it still that high in the 90s? I thought that was more of a 70s Soviet thing when it was something ludicrous like standing army of 5 million, between 20 and 25% employed by the military or in military-adjacent or controlled industries, and the military portion of the budget being astronomical. A statistic I picked up from: https://books.google.com/books?id=g5CATmJzU0wC&pg=PT198#v=onepage&q&f=false. No citation, but plausible; Russia inherited a disproportionate share of the military industries of the former USSR so the problem initially actually became worse as a share of national production Interestingly, so did Ukraine, but of course Ukraine was not in a position to even have the option of sustaining those industries via renewing the empire. ronya fucked around with this message at 17:04 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 16:54
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Pook Good Mook posted:
I mean, stuff like this is often said, but never seems to interrupt the lavishness of most of their lives or the degrees of freedom they have as oligarchs to plunder their own country. As usual I think the already-not-doing-great population will have it the worst.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:00
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https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1496517342918029312
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Feb 23, 2022 17:12
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I very much doubt that Putin would try to capture all of Kyiv, it's a big village to cover and unless Ukrainians just threw their hands in the air it would take a lot of time and effort to bring under control. Going full hog into Kyiv and probably killing tens of thousands of civilians in the process (in addition to hundreds of Russian soldiers) would also be difficult to sell to domestic audiences right after explaining that Ukrainians are just Russians with a funny accent. At this point he doesn't seem to care about foreign response to his actions, though. That's not to deny that Russian army might launch an offensive from Belarus to destroy the Ukrainian formations defending the capital and then proceed to surround Kyiv from all directions. At that point Russia would have access to highways in all main directions - including M05 that goes directly to Odessa. Ukrainian army formations in the eastern parts of country would then be in risk of being cut off and surrounded, while their capital is completely cut off. It'd be one sort of gambit, but whether it could be pulled off is anyone's guess.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:15
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Dwesa posted:I counted 6 NATO/ex-WP states (Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria) and half of Germany Albania left the Warsaw Pact
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Feb 23, 2022 17:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That means I’m not particularly good at posting. The tweet is joint Polish-Lithuanian declaration in support of granting Ukraine the status of an EU Candidate State. Turkey is an EU candidate state too since forever, but it has probably about as much chance of becoming an EU state as Ukraine, even if Russia rolled over and decided to leave Crimea and Donbas and stop interfering effective immediately. Ukraine would likely still be a pretty corrupt and undeveloped mess even without Russian meddling. I mean, Romania and Bulgaria aren't even really fully in the EU yet (they are neither part of Schengen, nor Eurozone), and god knows when that will happen, but it's taken them way longer than Croatia, which officially joined way later. And yeah, I know those things are separate, but they're not supposed to be in the long run. I don't think territorial disputes with Crimea or Donbas existentially prevent Ukraine from joining NATO or the EU though - you just can't have a territorial dispute with an existing member of NATO or the EU.
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Feb 23, 2022 17:28
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This is a pretty good example of why it's important to provide context for tweets. a) it's Newsweek, an outlet whose rep is in the toilet. b) it's unnamed "US officials", and it's "highly likely". c) being mediated through the feed of an editor for Walla News, which I know nothing about other than that it's Israeli
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Feb 23, 2022 17:30
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Discendo Vox posted:This is a pretty good example of why it's important to provide context for tweets. Oh good. I guess there aren't any troops and no one's bombing my hometown. Must have imagined it!
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Feb 23, 2022 17:33
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Walla is Israel's main online news outlet, its rep is far better than Newsweek's - it's pro-Netanyahu, but almost every Israeli news outlet has some bias regarding internal politics. (Note that Israel's official stance re: the crisis is "please don't involve us")
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Feb 23, 2022 17:35
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