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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

This would be Minsk 3 anyway.

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Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3
Nov 15, 2003

Wesley Snipes

really queer Christmas
Apr 22, 2014


Me smiling serenely as my casket is lowered into the ground while this post is read aloud to the crying audience.

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

ScootsMcSkirt posted:

worked for your mom :shrug:

My mom died last summer, you heartless monster.

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

really queer Christmas posted:

Me smiling serenely as my casket is lowered into the ground while this post is read aloud to the crying audience.

I think you'll like this one too.

https://twitter.com/witchybitchych1/status/1496378081484935170

thatfatkid
Feb 20, 2011

by Azathoth

lol wew

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin

SchrodingersCat posted:

My mom died last summer, you heartless monster.

Died from delight at seeing a bunch of massive hogs

thatfatkid
Feb 20, 2011

by Azathoth
lolling at the news here in australia just breathlessly repeating """US intelligence""" that there COULD be an IMMINENT invasion SOON. like fmd

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

PawParole posted:

theres no reason why Ukraine can't sign Minsk Two, build up its army, and break the treaty anyway

I guess something that could have helped was France and Germany publicly declaring that they'd veto Ukraine's NATO bid. It's not like we're even pretending that we'd start a shooting war over Ukraine's borders.

Morbus
May 18, 2004

Frosted Flake posted:

I know I just posted this the other day, but they had 30 years!. They got to enjoy that to their hearts’ content! Any failure to make good on that is their own.

I wish there was an End of History thread to explore this in, because it overlaps with the succ, Doomsday Econ, Capitalism, US Would Lose WW3 and Dems are Doomed threads, but I can’t get over this feeing of there being a pervasive sentiment of Sore Winners in the West.

Not just in international diplomacy, but domestic politics too, even in the capitalist class broadly, they had a 30 year run of winning over the Left, workers, the working class, any foreign states, any opposing ideology, any culture or media that wasn’t hegemonic. They won non-stop. 9/11, The Great Recession, Brexit, southern Europe resenting the EU and Trump were own-goals, and rather than idk reflect, they kept at it. Now that it’s crumbling they aren’t reminiscing their time in the sun one bit.

I can’t actually put my finger on what it is they’re doing. Some are in denial, some are pissed, but they can’t seem to see that they had 30 uninterrupted years of the world they wanted and their actions during that time have directly led to where we are now. They ended it, no one else.

If they hadn’t humiliated and looted Russia and Eastern Europe, propped up Yeltsin, rejected Russia joining NATO, bombed Serbia, and expanded NATO we would not be here. For fucks sake the reason there isn’t a BAOR standing proud with colours flying to stop the Russians is that the Brits destroyed their own society, and their own economy in those 30 years and then destroyed their Army in Iraq and Afghanistan. What did they think would happen 40 years on from “There’s no such thing as society”? That the Household Cavalry would be exempt? Britain’s not even in the loving EU anymore, the world order they are frustrated they can’t uphold is already gone.

I realize they probably thought they could stand over a prostrate Russia, presumably forever, but as much as Russia getting comparatively stronger than 1991 was outside their control, Russia’s attitude towards them, and their own weakness is entirely their fault for what they did in those 30 years.

I mean, they spent most of that 30 years gradually absorbing eastern Europe into the American sphere of influence, expanding NATO, slowly dismantling/ignoring strategic arms treaties, etc. And they will continue along that path. You say if they hadn't done XYZ we wouldn't be here, but "here" is where they wanted to be. There is really no outcome here that doesn't further long term western objectives regarding Russia.

As long as Russia is treated like an economic outsider to the rest of Europe, it will have a very hard time arresting its industrial and demographic decline (as would any western country without a good market for manufactured goods or meaningful immigration). That, and the continued encirclement of Russia by a hostile military alliance, is the whole point. Ukraine getting steamrolled, or not getting steamrolled, or whatever, doesn't really matter.

Morbus has issued a correction as of 00:16 on Feb 24, 2022

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011

A Bakers Cousin posted:

Died from delight at seeing a bunch of massive hogs

Ok, I was pulling a bit but there's no way I can top that.

thatfatkid posted:

"""US intelligence"""

This is an oxymoron.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496620932672147466?s=20&t=4yWOXI8z5w0JbaBaMUApEw
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496622105483517952?s=20&t=4yWOXI8z5w0JbaBaMUApEw

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Russia doesn’t need to call up Reserves for units with the BTG organization. That was the point of those army reforms. A hard core of professional all-year fighting power with no reservists or conscripts.

Additionally, unless the Reservists were just on those wargames, they would need time to assemble and work up. Even what the soviets used to call iirc Class A Reserves*, that just draw vehicles from units and not mobilization centres, have been in the field somewhat recently etc , it would take at least a while for them to get up to speed - during general mobilization for WW3 or wargames for a limited conflict. B and C echelons have a lower peacetime readiness and need to draw equipment and assemble, they only have small peacetime cadres. *

If Divisional size units start getting up to establishment strength and tank and motor rifle units start drawing vehicles from war storage, it should only be another reason for Zelensky to sign Minsk II or surrender.

iirc Russia has ~600 T-80’s active and 3000 in storage*. I realize there are different readiness categories there, a large portion of them have not been fully modernized, some are stored for parts or export etc etc, but the point is that calling on the Reserves to fill units to full strength, that’s the end of Ukraine if they want it to be. Any war so intense that Russia is concerned their regulars will be fought out would destroy the Ukrainian state. So why not avoid that entirely?

What about not signing Minsk II is worth that kind of confrontation? Do you know what I mean? If that force is getting ready to come to grips with you, there’s nothing you can do.

Suppose Russia does call up Reservists - that still gives a few days, 1-3, maybe more these days, where they are getting notices, assembling, getting cosmolene off their equipment, doing refamiliarization, getting formed into units - that’s all time to work out a diplomatic solution.

I realize that’s why it works as a bluff, but it’s also a very compelling reason to sign loving Minsk II, goddamn.

*May not be current to 2021

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Frosted Flake posted:

Russia doesn’t need to call up Reserves for units with the BTG organization. That was the point of those army reforms. A hard core of professional all-year fighting power with no reservists or conscripts.

Additionally, unless the Reservists were just on those wargames, they would need time to assemble and work up. Even what the soviets used to call iirc Class A Reserves*, that just draw vehicles from units and not mobilization centres, have been in the field somewhat recently etc , it would take at least a while for them to get up to speed - during general mobilization for WW3 or wargames for a limited conflict. B and C echelons have a lower peacetime readiness and need to draw equipment and assemble, they only have small peacetime cadres. *

If Divisional size units start getting up to establishment strength and tank and motor rifle units start drawing vehicles from war storage, it should only be another reason for Zelensky to sign Minsk II or surrender.

iirc Russia has ~600 T-80’s active and 3000 in storage*. I realize there are different readiness categories there, a large portion of them have not been fully modernized, some are stored for parts or export etc etc, but the point is that calling on the Reserves to fill units to full strength, that’s the end of Ukraine if they want it to be. Any war so intense that Russia is concerned their regulars will be fought out would destroy the Ukrainian state. So why not avoid that entirely?

What about not signing Minsk II is worth that kind of confrontation? Do you know what I mean? If that force is getting ready to come to grips with you, there’s nothing you can do.

Suppose Russia does call up Reservists - that still gives a few days, 1-3, maybe more these days, where they are getting notices, assembling, getting cosmolene off their equipment, doing refamiliarization, getting formed into units - that’s all time to work out a diplomatic solution.

I realize that’s why it works as a bluff, but it’s also a very compelling reason to sign loving Minsk II, goddamn.

*May not be current to 2021

Is this post from December because lmao

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496622094066634754

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1496618852687482883

https://twitter.com/WarsontheBrink/status/1496620417037086724?s=20&t=IxZg9Plg0GRTAkRlQkt1DQ

https://twitter.com/conflicts/status/1496623636576456710?s=21

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/s_udaltsov/status/1496462103875567616?s=20&t=xokEQPeqQuI89_Ao3gMhsg

quote:

Calls are heard among those gathered: “Russia without Putin and the oligarchs!”, “After the recognition of Donbass, a turn to socialism is needed!”, “Cancel the pension reform!”, “Enough repression!”, “Money to the people, not the oligarchs!”, “Nationalization raw materials industry!”, “Against DEG and QR codes!”

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021


finally this thread gets behind the right candidate

why stop at Ukraine when you can support the KPRF, with the official policy of immediately restoring Soviet borders with nuclear weapons if necessary

pissinthewind
Nov 11, 2021

still saying russia is going to invade today or tomorrow, but also they invaded yesterday and every day since 2014 and yet

F Stop Fitzgerald
Dec 12, 2010

USSR 2.0 ahead of schedule

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

lol holy gently caress dude, sign the drat treaty.

Unless he thinks he can win a war that starts at 4am local time, and all evidence points to “no”, I’m a loss here.

Snake Dance
Jan 5, 2020

by Azathoth

Doing Black Putin as a Cum Town bit

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Frosted Flake posted:

lol holy gently caress dude, sign the drat treaty.

Unless he thinks he can win a war that starts at 4am local time, and all evidence points to “no”, I’m a loss here.

He can't. Putin is not answering the phone.

Morbus
May 18, 2004

Frosted Flake posted:

lol holy gently caress dude, sign the drat treaty.

Unless he thinks he can win a war that starts at 4am local time, and all evidence points to “no”, I’m a loss here.

The govt are all, 100%, absolute dupes who have just been goaded into calling putin's bluff by their western partners* (who, again, get what they want out of this regardless of the outcome to Ukraine). They have no idea what they are doing and are just, like, going with the flow, man.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

also if he capitulated now one imagines that he'd wake up with a bullet in the back of the head next morning

SchrodingersCat
Aug 23, 2011
So the question becomes, is it an offensive to clear Ukraine from DNR/LNR, an offensive against Ukraine beyond those borders, and are those two things going to be considered one and the same by outside powers.

An "offensive" could just mean pushing Ukrainian forces out of the contested region, and if Ukraine was smart they would start backing up now. They can't win and sacrificing lives isn't going to make NATO explode this from a regional war to a continental war.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

SchrodingersCat posted:

So the question becomes, is it an offensive to clear Ukraine from DNR/LNR, an offensive against Ukraine beyond those borders, and are those two things going to be considered one and the same by outside powers.

An "offensive" could just mean pushing Ukrainian forces out of the contested region, and if Ukraine was smart they would start backing up now. They can't win and sacrificing lives isn't going to make NATO explode this from a regional war to a continental war.

Yeah, best-case scenario is a repeat of Georgia '08.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

SchrodingersCat posted:

So the question becomes, is it an offensive to clear Ukraine from DNR/LNR, an offensive against Ukraine beyond those borders, and are those two things going to be considered one and the same by outside powers.

An "offensive" could just mean pushing Ukrainian forces out of the contested region, and if Ukraine was smart they would start backing up now. They can't win and sacrificing lives isn't going to make NATO explode this from a regional war to a continental war.

Either way, he can withdraw his troops beyond there while insisting it was to prevent bloodshed and does not signal de jure recognition, he could sign Minsk III or IV, whichever we’re on now.

Sitting there to take it on the chin for no real reason.. other than to be a proxy for the West, it’s not great.

F Stop Fitzgerald
Dec 12, 2010

ukraine go home

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
It's too late to pull back.

poo poo, they never mobilized.

Russia is going to loving take Kharkiv and it'll all be because they Zelensky ordered his troops to keep their pants down.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

i think there's a real chance that some elements of the ukrainian military would outright mutiny if instructed to withdraw without a fight

lumpentroll
Mar 4, 2020

Dolphin posted:

Post a good post.

(USER WAS PERMABANNED FOR THIS POST)

LMAO

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Morbus posted:

The govt are all, 100%, absolute dupes who have just been goaded into calling putin's bluff by their western partners* (who, again, get what they want out of this regardless of the outcome to Ukraine). They have no idea what they are doing and are just, like, going with the flow, man.

It’s driving me crazy. The West already showed that they are not in this to win it. There’s no help forthcoming.

It’s unfair that Zelensky got cornered like this, absolutely. It’s also up to him to get out.

F Stop Fitzgerald
Dec 12, 2010


lmao

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

I can’t be attacking Donbas, some of my best friends are from Donbas

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



Putin - "We really want everyone to abide by Minsk, we wont recognize the regions if you just stick to Minsk"

Zelensky - "You dont know about the political situation inside the country, Minsk is dead and maybe we should get nuclear weapons"

Putin - "You've done hosed up, you loving idiot, we give you an out and you gently caress up"

Zelensky - *in russian* "I beg you please dont gently caress us up"

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

V. Illych L. posted:

i think there's a real chance that some elements of the ukrainian military would outright mutiny if instructed to withdraw without a fight

Well then it’s their prerogative to get overrun I guess.

Unlike Brave Little Belgium, the BEF and French are not coming to help them, and even then Belgium was not in an enviable position from 1914-18 even though it maintained control over a sliver of territory.

The west was willing to push this to the brink to kill the pipeline and Minsk II, but at the brink, he made his point, got a few Javelins, and is a cause celebre in the West. Time to save your nation dude.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 00:39 on Feb 24, 2022

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

lol

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

lol i never get the good PMs

empty whippet box
Jun 9, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

i wanna see the death threats lol

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Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010




lol

Tried to be a main character and instead sent to oblivion

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