Herstory Begins Now posted:

Wasn't the closest thing to a promise they got was just a verbal statement that some day they could become nato members? No timeline, no membership action plan or whatever they're called, just a 'yeah someday'

iirc macedonia was the one who got led on and baited.

Majorian posted:

I don't know how I can possibly be more clear - Ukraine wanting to join NATO in no way justifies Russia's aggression.

Wafflepoet posted:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm

That’s from a 2021 NATO summit. Check out article (whatever) 69. My point in general here is no, NATO wasn’t making vague gestures toward Ukrainian accession. A lot of us here are frustrated by NATO actions like these - separate from Putin’s loving invasion - when we know certain NATO members were never, under any circumstances, going to let Ukraine join.

Saladman posted:

North Macedonia is a NATO country now. They didn't really get led on and baited, they were repeatedly told they have to rename their country and stop irredentist claims to parts of Greece. Which they did, and then they got into NATO like super fast after renaming themselves to N Macedonia.

Fritz the Horse posted:

Hey all, this is a gentle reminder to try to keep your posts substantive and on-topic. The invasion of Ukraine is obviously a tense issue, especially considering the good number of Eastern European goons itt. This thread is gonna get a ton of traffic.

Specifically, the mod team would like to discourage:

• Clancychat. Wild speculation about catastrophic but extremely unlikely possibilities. There's plenty to talk about that exists within the realm of "reasonably possible," let's try and stick to that please.
  
  
• Shitposting and whataboutism. Please keep posts on-topic and substantive. Jokes are always allowed, of course, but this is a (literally) deadly-serious topic. If you're gonna make a dumb joke, better hope that it lands.
  
  
• Attacking other posters or complaining about CSPAM. I regret to inform you that this is the forum and being an rear end in a top hat to other users is not allowed. If someone makes a dumbass post or has a lovely opinion, by all means roast their terrible take. Please refrain from going after posting personalities. Also, CSPAM has its own rules, if you don't like something there then PM the CSPAM mods or you could even post in a CSPAM thread and argue against whatever take you don't like!

FishBulbia posted:

fighting on the highway that surrounds the metro area of Kharkiv confirmed, looks heavy.

Dwesa posted:

Moscow stock exchange already suspended trading

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ng-kyiv-kharkiv posted:

The rouble skidded to an all-time low of 89.60 against the dollar and neared a crucial threshold of 100 versus the euro. It was around 70 to the dollar and 81 to the euro before the recent round of geopolitical tensions between Moscow and the West started escalating in October.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I still maintain that attempting to occupy Ukraine would be incredibly stupid, but 1) major powers have made stupid decisions before, 2) the Putin Rant Speeches, and 3) pulverizing the cities of 5+ million people and then leaving would achieve pretty much all of Russia's objectives if they were willing to risk even more international outrage

so who the gently caress knows, this all sucks and i'm currently sad

FishBulbia posted:

fighting on the highway that surrounds the metro area of Kharkiv confirmed, looks heavy.

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496774331795394561

She says this is happening on the circle road, basically confirming that Russia is trying to besiege or bypass Kharkiv at the moment

Knightsoul posted:

Even in the last few days, Putin said that if Ukraine would abandon their will to join NATO or the European Union ( which is just a masked organization for the U.S. international power), the whole crisis would end.

Cirvot posted:

It's not hard to find reactions from European leftists have looked over appalled at the how naive the American lefts reaction to this conflict has been. Where the far rights allegiances lie is the same across the two continents in question, but I guess we didn't expect the American left to be this naive.

Swedish here and I fully agree with the sentiment of the last sentence of the quote.

FishBulbia posted:

She says this is happening on the circle road, basically confirming that Russia is trying to besiege or bypass Kharkiv at the moment

dr_rat posted:

In the replies to the tweet some also says the lady speaking says they are Russian tanks, but I don't speak the language so

Ok Comboomer posted:

American leftists are exactly like the American liberals that they love to hate, incapable of seeing the world in any manner that isn't through an America-centric lens where everything that you do and do not see is secretly America.

Alchenar posted:

The core issue has never been, and still isn't NATO membership. Putin's grievance is that former Russian imperial subjects have chosen to break with Moscow and align West. Those former subjects applying in due course for NATO membership is a symptom of that process, but it isn't the process itself.

There was no real chance of Ukraine actually applying for NATO membership in 2014, there was no realistic prospect of Ukraine joining anytime soon in 2021. NATO enlargement is a real and honest grievance in the Kremlin, but nothing NATO has or hasn't done has been the proximate cause for anything Putin has done in Ukraine in the last 8 years.



e: If anything, I suspect the consensus outlook will not be that Russia was not given enough respect and concessions by the West, it will be that Russian aggression has been repeatedly ignored or rewarded and that this has emboldened Putin each time. A sharp relearning of the lessons of the 30's, this is what happens if you let a militaristic revanchist ethnostate have a few little invasions with no consequences.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Also I think you are specifically wrong about the 'never, under any circumstances, going to let Ukraine join.' which it is clear that no one from Ukraine to Russia apparently believed to be the case. The bigger issue was the timeline of joining wasn't quick enough than that it was totally impossible. I'm not sold that there is something about Ukraine that makes Germany or France unwilling to go to war over yet they would do so for noted, valued NATO member, Albania.

Ok Comboomer posted:

American leftists are exactly like the American liberals that they love to hate, incapable of seeing the world in any manner that isn't through an America-centric lens where everything that you do and do not see is secretly America.

Knightsoul posted:

Even in the last few days, Putin said that if Ukraine would abandon their will to join NATO or the European Union ( which is just a masked organization for the U.S. international power), the whole crisis would end.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Also I think you are specifically wrong about the 'never, under any circumstances, going to let Ukraine join.' which it is clear that no one from Ukraine to Russia apparently believed to be the case. The bigger issue was the timeline of joining wasn't quick enough than that it was totally impossible. I'm not sold that there is something about Ukraine that makes Germany or France unwilling to go to war over yet they would do so for noted, valued NATO member, Albania.

GABA ghoul posted:

He had the chance to go down as a competent statesman and rebuilder in history books, ut now he's gonna be a war criminal, butcher and the man who plunged Russians into poverty again.

Wafflepoet posted:

Majorian posted:

Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at. I'm hoping that the objective here is to force Ukraine to accept the independence of the breakaway regions and permanently dissuade any further attempts to drift into the Western orbit - that would be the sanest goal. But that second point in particular concerns me, too.

Sally Sprodgkin posted:

Please source this.

Charlz Guybon posted:

I think he's going to try and take all the south and east. Basically everything that he called "Lenin's gift"

Stubb Dogg posted:

Agricola Frigidus posted:

Speaking of Nato - how likely is it that Finland and Sweden are joining up now?

I can only speak of my circles but basically everyone under 50 in Finland supports NATO membership these days, this includes voters for Left Alliance and Greens. I don’t know anyone who admits to voting True Finns, so dunno about them.

Wafflepoet posted:

You need to respect the fact that this is literally Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine. It doesn’t matter if that is a valid justification to you or anyone else. There are so many people refusing to accept this - worse, people who point this out are accused of being Russian apologists!

Chewbaccanator posted:

I believe the "something about Ukraine" is the nuclear power sitting next to them that has repeatedly stated since the 2000s that them joining NATO is a non-starter.

That seems like a legitimate reason to block accession compared to Albania.

Alchenar posted:

Nah in for a penny in for a pound. The additional cost of occupying the West of the country would likely be less that allowing a continuing rump free Ukraine in the West with an open border with Europe.

EvilHawk posted:

Just referring back to my personal situation, my dev team in Ukraine have been asked to find a safe place (preferably outside the country) - though I'm not sure if that was a company directive or by the government. At least one of the team has made it to Germany and we're hoping that the others will get somewhere safe.

Cugel the Clever posted:

You keep harping on NATO, but what's your actual policy prescription? Is it that Ukraine should have never tried to chart its own course and just submitted to Russian imperialism all the sooner? If so, that's pretty incongruous with your claims that you oppose Putin's actions here!

Nenonen posted:

In light of polls something like one third of Finns are for membership. But when framed with question "if the president and prime minister of Finland supported Nato membership, would you support it" then 43% agreed. Support for Nato membership is on the rise in Finland, but about a third are still unsure.

However I am doubtful that it will go into a referendum like so many politicians have sworn before. Once the popular opinion becomes clearly in favour the parliament will probably decide on whether to apply based on national security needs. Holding a referendum would just open the decision making up to Russian trolls and bullying attempts. If not this year then after next spring's elections.

EvilHawk posted:

Just referring back to my personal situation, my dev team in Ukraine have been asked to find a safe place (preferably outside the country) - though I'm not sure if that was a company directive or by the government. At least one of the team has made it to Germany and we're hoping that the others will get somewhere safe.

Zelensky has announced that they've officially cut ties with Russia, which seems like one of those moves that just sort of happens when they start bombing you.

mmkay posted:

His justification is that Ukraine isn't a real country, it was made up by Lenin, is run by Nazis and that it wants to aim nuclear missiles at Moscow.

mobby_6kl posted:

That polling was before the second invasion I assume? How would it look now? Tbh I'd be shocked if they didn't go through with this after Putin's aggression. Like why would you remain "neutral" when poo poo like this happens to Russia's neighbors.

Used to work with some guys from EPAM, but they were based in Lviv I think. A friend had a team in Kyiv and most got out west preemptively like a week ago.

Lazy_Liberal posted:

I really appreciate you sharing the lived experiences of your colleagues with us. It's very hard to sort out all the chatter, fighting, and misinformation. Hoping for your team's safety.

theghostpt posted:

There's some pretty terrible photos in Czech online newspapers already. loving awful

Czech Republic is allowing any Ukrainian with biometric passport to enter the country without visa. Also any Ukrainian with unresolved visa status can stay in the country....