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Herstory Begins Now posted:Wasn't the closest thing to a promise they got was just a verbal statement that some day they could become nato members? No timeline, no membership action plan or whatever they're called, just a 'yeah someday' North Macedonia is a NATO country now. They didn't really get led on and baited, they were repeatedly told they have to rename their country and stop irredentist claims to parts of Greece. Which they did, and then they got into NATO like super fast after renaming themselves to N Macedonia.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:20 |
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# ? Jun 13, 2024 04:48 |
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Majorian posted:I don't know how I can possibly be more clear - Ukraine wanting to join NATO in no way justifies Russia's aggression. You need to respect the fact that this is literally Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine. It doesn’t matter if that is a valid justification to you or anyone else. There are so many people refusing to accept this - worse, people who point this out are accused of being Russian apologists! Everything Putin has done is demonstrably immoral, but you’ve got to understand what’s happening isn’t just because of Putin. His foreign policy may as well have been inherited from the Soviets and the tsars before them. Russia has not and will not accept “hostile” states or actors to exist on their border. None of this is new. Criticizing NATO for the wildly irresponsible behavior we’ve seen from the organization since 2008 isn’t apologizing for or justifying the disgusting actions of Putin. A lot of us are just trying to put this awful poo poo in context.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:20 |
Viewed from the distance of Hong Kong (where we have our own issues but they thankfully don’t involve tanks on the streets), it looks as if Putin’s goals are: 1. Finish seizing the two breakaway regions as client states. 2. Remove the Ukrainian government from power and institute a Russia-friendly (but probably not entirely puppet) government. The purpose of 2 being to make sure that everyone in Ukraine knows he can do it again if he wants to at any point, which means it becomes a reluctant Russian ally at gunpoint for the foreseeable future, during which time he can work on making it an enthusiastic ally. There seem to be enough people in Ukraine that are happier in the Russian than the Western camp that this would be achievable eventually given time and media control. I think this because of the constant rhetorical emphasis from Russia over the past few hours about avoiding civilian casualties. It’s a very fine line to walk: Russia needs to win without taking or inflicting heavy casualties. If they murder a lot of Ukrainians in the course of this then Ukraine as a willing partner becomes impossible and they end up with a painful occupation.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:20 |
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Wafflepoet posted:https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm yes that's reaffirming the almost completely substanceless 2008 decision I mentioned? Also I think you are specifically wrong about the 'never, under any circumstances, going to let Ukraine join.' which it is clear that no one from Ukraine to Russia apparently believed to be the case. The bigger issue was the timeline of joining wasn't quick enough than that it was totally impossible. I'm not sold that there is something about Ukraine that makes Germany or France unwilling to go to war over yet they would do so for noted, valued NATO member, Albania. Saladman posted:North Macedonia is a NATO country now. They didn't really get led on and baited, they were repeatedly told they have to rename their country and stop irredentist claims to parts of Greece. Which they did, and then they got into NATO like super fast after renaming themselves to N Macedonia. yeah sorry, i meant specifically in the context of the 2008 meeting. you are correct yeah
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:21 |
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gently caress gently caress gently caress, I hope people try to stay safe! I just woke up and this is some horrible news. Did Poland have an open door to refugees? No one should be forced to stay in a warzone.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:22 |
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Fritz the Horse posted:Hey all, this is a gentle reminder to try to keep your posts substantive and on-topic. The invasion of Ukraine is obviously a tense issue, especially considering the good number of Eastern European goons itt. This thread is gonna get a ton of traffic. Lmfao imagine if Ukraine was allied with this guy. This is a decorum forum. We are here to talk about NATO doing nothing about Ukraine so you may not draw attention to the people calling for your death! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) psycho with a gun fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Feb 24, 2022 |
# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:22 |
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fighting on the highway that surrounds the metro area of Kharkiv confirmed, looks heavy. https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496774331795394561 She says this is happening on the circle road, basically confirming that Russia is trying to besiege or bypass Kharkiv at the moment FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 10:25 on Feb 24, 2022 |
# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:23 |
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FishBulbia posted:fighting on the highway that surrounds the metro area of Kharkiv confirmed, looks heavy. The guy just standing there watching a mechanized battle happening a block away
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:26 |
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Dwesa posted:Moscow stock exchange already suspended trading Ruble is also plummeting. https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ng-kyiv-kharkiv posted:The rouble skidded to an all-time low of 89.60 against the dollar and neared a crucial threshold of 100 versus the euro. It was around 70 to the dollar and 81 to the euro before the recent round of geopolitical tensions between Moscow and the West started escalating in October. Hopefully if their economy keeps getting hit, and the war is costly there will be enough oligarchs on Putin he will be convinced to GTF.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:26 |
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I still maintain that attempting to occupy Ukraine would be incredibly stupid, but 1) major powers have made stupid decisions before, 2) the Putin Rant Speeches, and 3) pulverizing the cities of 5+ million people and then leaving would achieve pretty much all of Russia's objectives if they were willing to risk even more international outrage Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at. I'm hoping that the objective here is to force Ukraine to accept the independence of the breakaway regions and permanently dissuade any further attempts to drift into the Western orbit - that would be the sanest goal. But that second point in particular concerns me, too.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:28 |
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FishBulbia posted:fighting on the highway that surrounds the metro area of Kharkiv confirmed, looks heavy. Google traffic shows heavy congestion on the roads leading out of Kharkiv to the west. e: wow same with the roads out of Kyiv breadshaped fucked around with this message at 10:31 on Feb 24, 2022 |
# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:28 |
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Knightsoul posted:Even in the last few days, Putin said that if Ukraine would abandon their will to join NATO or the European Union ( which is just a masked organization for the U.S. international power), the whole crisis would end. Please source this.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:29 |
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Cirvot posted:It's not hard to find reactions from European leftists have looked over appalled at the how naive the American lefts reaction to this conflict has been. Where the far rights allegiances lie is the same across the two continents in question, but I guess we didn't expect the American left to be this naive. American leftists are exactly like the American liberals that they love to hate, incapable of seeing the world in any manner that isn't through an America-centric lens where everything that you do and do not see is secretly America.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:29 |
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FishBulbia posted:She says this is happening on the circle road, basically confirming that Russia is trying to besiege or bypass Kharkiv at the moment
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:29 |
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dr_rat posted:In the replies to the tweet some also says the lady speaking says they are Russian tanks, but I don't speak the language so She says there are Russian tanks on the highway and our guys are shooting them and also not letting us through
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:32 |
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Ok Comboomer posted:American leftists are exactly like the American liberals that they love to hate, incapable of seeing the world in any manner that isn't through an America-centric lens where everything that you do and do not see is secretly America. Americans on left and right honestly believe people in the world dislike them because they hate their freedom and whatever other bullshit they were fed in GW Bush 9/11 address. Some of them in this very thread think Putin invades Ukraine because he wholeheartedly hates democracy, and not because of pragmatic realpolitik reasons.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:33 |
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I hope I get the chance to piss on Putin's grave one day. He had the chance to go down as a competent statesman and rebuilder in history books, ut now he's gonna be a war criminal, butcher and the man who plunged Russians into poverty again. gently caress that insane piece of poo poo. Authoritarianism, not even once
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:34 |
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Alchenar posted:The core issue has never been, and still isn't NATO membership. Putin's grievance is that former Russian imperial subjects have chosen to break with Moscow and align West. Those former subjects applying in due course for NATO membership is a symptom of that process, but it isn't the process itself. Mmm, I feel like the closest comparison is probably actually the modern incarnation of America's Monroe Doctrine in South America, which Putin has been none-too-subtle about cribbing notes from. A largely stable sphere of influence maintained through overt and covert terror, bribery, and coercion that ends up largely tolerated by other great powers because it doesn't seriously threaten their interests. Attempting to directly destroy and conquer other empires like the Nazis did went out of vogue with the advent of nuclear weapons.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:37 |
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Also I think you are specifically wrong about the 'never, under any circumstances, going to let Ukraine join.' which it is clear that no one from Ukraine to Russia apparently believed to be the case. The bigger issue was the timeline of joining wasn't quick enough than that it was totally impossible. I'm not sold that there is something about Ukraine that makes Germany or France unwilling to go to war over yet they would do so for noted, valued NATO member, Albania. This, to me, is one of the many tragedies of this entire situation. I am fully aware of the fact that Ukraine and Russia believed Ukrainian accession was possible, if not likely. Discussion of any timelines on NATO accession is both confusing and contradictory. We have high level NATO statements ranging from the irresponsibility of choosing between new member states and Russia to explicit statements that Russia has no right to determine if or when neighbor states wish to join NATO. NATO has consistently stated that the accession for new members is determined by the people of potential members and how current members vote. We’re fundamentally looking at a situation where key members of NATO were either unable or unwilling to accept how serious a threat Russia posed. It’s also irresponsible to ignore the fact that certain members (such as Germany) were never going to risk the political and economic consequences of letting Ukraine join NATO. I don’t know what Albania has to do with any of this. Albania isn’t sitting on the border of Russia. Ok Comboomer posted:American leftists are exactly like the American liberals that they love to hate, incapable of seeing the world in any manner that isn't through an America-centric lens where everything that you do and do not see is secretly America. I don’t think this is an especially American or leftist problem. The over-saturation of American media (perspective) in online spaces certainly exacerbates this problem, especially when a lot of media/social media platforms are overwhelmingly populated by Americans despite being used by the international community at large. America remains the cultural hegemon of the world. I don’t think there’s anything wrong “seeing” America’s fingers in every conceivable pie around the world, but I resent and am otherwise frustrated by people - especially leftists - who are unwilling or incapable of viewing poo poo in greater context. Melancholia fucked around with this message at 10:53 on Feb 24, 2022 |
# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:41 |
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Knightsoul posted:Even in the last few days, Putin said that if Ukraine would abandon their will to join NATO or the European Union ( which is just a masked organization for the U.S. international power), the whole crisis would end. That's bullshit. He said that the whole crisis would end if NATO pulled out of every country that joined it after like 1994. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/ If NATO had absolutely kowtowed to Putin (impossible in that timeline, and anyway stupid) then I'm sure he still would have gobbled up eastern Ukraine "to prevent genocide", he just would have switched to some other bogus reason. Exactly like literally nothing Saddam Hussein could have done would have stopped the US invasion, at least no choices he could have made as of like January 2003.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:42 |
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We're already seeing the ground shifting in terms of European policy. I think this statement would have been unthinkable from a German General a week ago: https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1496756495626690560 e: to clarify any uncertaintly on the last paragraph, he's saying 'It's time to stop thinking about counter-insurgency and get serious about conventional warfighting again'
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:44 |
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Also I think you are specifically wrong about the 'never, under any circumstances, going to let Ukraine join.' which it is clear that no one from Ukraine to Russia apparently believed to be the case. The bigger issue was the timeline of joining wasn't quick enough than that it was totally impossible. I'm not sold that there is something about Ukraine that makes Germany or France unwilling to go to war over yet they would do so for noted, valued NATO member, Albania. I believe the "something about Ukraine" is the nuclear power sitting next to them that has repeatedly stated since the 2000s that them joining NATO is a non-starter. That seems like a legitimate reason to block accession compared to Albania.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:44 |
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GABA ghoul posted:He had the chance to go down as a competent statesman and rebuilder in history books, ut now he's gonna be a war criminal, butcher and the man who plunged Russians into poverty again. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say his history with the KGB, FSB and a bunch of horrible poo poo he's overseen while in charge of Russia probably means that ship sailed a long loving time ago.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:45 |
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You keep harping on NATO, but what's your actual policy prescription? Is it that Ukraine should have never tried to chart its own course and just submitted to Russian imperialism all the sooner? If so, that's pretty incongruous with your claims that you oppose Putin's actions here!
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:51 |
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Just referring back to my personal situation, my dev team in Ukraine have been asked to find a safe place (preferably outside the country) - though I'm not sure if that was a company directive or by the government. At least one of the team has made it to Germany and we're hoping that the others will get somewhere safe. Zelensky has announced that they've officially cut ties with Russia, which seems like one of those moves that just sort of happens when they start bombing you.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:52 |
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Majorian posted:Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at. I'm hoping that the objective here is to force Ukraine to accept the independence of the breakaway regions and permanently dissuade any further attempts to drift into the Western orbit - that would be the sanest goal. But that second point in particular concerns me, too. I think he's going to try and take all the south and east. Basically everything that he called "Lenin's gift"
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:53 |
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Sally Sprodgkin posted:Please source this. It was a published list of demands from Putin. It also had chestnuts like "completely demilitarize" and "renounce all claims to areas we've annexed" https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1496166536398221326?s=20&t=qztQ_S-3UFUrg5pzjeuBng Suffice it to say that it strains credulity that they were negotiating "in good faith"
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:55 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:I think he's going to try and take all the south and east. Basically everything that he called "Lenin's gift" Nah in for a penny in for a pound. The additional cost of occupying the West of the country would likely be less that allowing a continuing rump free Ukraine in the West with an open border with Europe.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:57 |
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Stubb Dogg posted:
In light of polls something like one third of Finns are for membership. But when framed with question "if the president and prime minister of Finland supported Nato membership, would you support it" then 43% agreed. Support for Nato membership is on the rise in Finland, but about a third are still unsure. However I am doubtful that it will go into a referendum like so many politicians have sworn before. Once the popular opinion becomes clearly in favour the parliament will probably decide on whether to apply based on national security needs. Holding a referendum would just open the decision making up to Russian trolls and bullying attempts. If not this year then after next spring's elections.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:58 |
“Please disband your military, we pinky swear that if you do, we won’t invade again like we’re doing right now.”
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:58 |
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Wafflepoet posted:You need to respect the fact that this is literally Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine. It doesn’t matter if that is a valid justification to you or anyone else. There are so many people refusing to accept this - worse, people who point this out are accused of being Russian apologists! His justification is that Ukraine isn't a real country, it was made up by Lenin, is run by Nazis and that it wants to aim nuclear missiles at Moscow.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 10:58 |
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Chewbaccanator posted:I believe the "something about Ukraine" is the nuclear power sitting next to them that has repeatedly stated since the 2000s that them joining NATO is a non-starter. Eh just using them as an example of a state that your average western european or american is not excited to die in defense of, and yet they are still in. And in any event, once again, take Latvia (or Estonia for that matter), which also shares a border with russia, so the question remains unanswered. Alchenar posted:Nah in for a penny in for a pound. The additional cost of occupying the West of the country would likely be less that allowing a continuing rump free Ukraine in the West with an open border with Europe. If Russia is concerned about an insurgency and organized opposition to their invasion in general, leaving half of ukraine as an unoccupied staging ground would definitely go well and definitely does not have any notable precedents that are synonymous with military quagmire. That said, it's way too early for anyone to really know how far they plan to push into Ukraine. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Feb 24, 2022 |
# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:00 |
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EvilHawk posted:Just referring back to my personal situation, my dev team in Ukraine have been asked to find a safe place (preferably outside the country) - though I'm not sure if that was a company directive or by the government. At least one of the team has made it to Germany and we're hoping that the others will get somewhere safe. I really appreciate you sharing the lived experiences of your colleagues with us. It's very hard to sort out all the chatter, fighting, and misinformation. Hoping for your team's safety.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:01 |
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Cugel the Clever posted:You keep harping on NATO, but what's your actual policy prescription? Is it that Ukraine should have never tried to chart its own course and just submitted to Russian imperialism all the sooner? If so, that's pretty incongruous with your claims that you oppose Putin's actions here! Tbf, I doubt that Ukraine on its own could have done much of anything. Being a smaller country next to a stronger, larger aggressive country just sucks.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:05 |
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Nenonen posted:In light of polls something like one third of Finns are for membership. But when framed with question "if the president and prime minister of Finland supported Nato membership, would you support it" then 43% agreed. Support for Nato membership is on the rise in Finland, but about a third are still unsure. EvilHawk posted:Just referring back to my personal situation, my dev team in Ukraine have been asked to find a safe place (preferably outside the country) - though I'm not sure if that was a company directive or by the government. At least one of the team has made it to Germany and we're hoping that the others will get somewhere safe.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:05 |
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Z marked convoy just passed highway cam at 46.74796664511499, 33.401800090438016 Seems like the Ukrainians probably wisely chose not to defend the area just outside of Crimea https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496788336740032515 FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 11:09 on Feb 24, 2022 |
# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:06 |
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Polish army is closing most of the gas stations in towns near the ukrainian border. Supposedly for military use.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:09 |
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mmkay posted:His justification is that Ukraine isn't a real country, it was made up by Lenin, is run by Nazis and that it wants to aim nuclear missiles at Moscow. His boy is all grown up now.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:09 |
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mobby_6kl posted:That polling was before the second invasion I assume? How would it look now? Tbh I'd be shocked if they didn't go through with this after Putin's aggression. Like why would you remain "neutral" when poo poo like this happens to Russia's neighbors. Lazy_Liberal posted:I really appreciate you sharing the lived experiences of your colleagues with us. It's very hard to sort out all the chatter, fighting, and misinformation. Hoping for your team's safety. It was kind of funny that as of yesterday they were just casually talking about struggling to get a dentist appointment because their usual guy is stuck in the US, and today... nothing. Hopefully we get updates throughout today that they've safely evacuated, but a couple of the guys are young enough that they could be reservists.
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:10 |
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# ? Jun 13, 2024 04:48 |
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theghostpt posted:There's some pretty terrible photos in Czech online newspapers already. loving awful Which newspaper?
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# ? Feb 24, 2022 11:11 |