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Kangxi posted:Local and imported grain shortages have been cited as one of the causes of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, as well as the Syrian civil war. Also remember that when the price of oil tanked when OPEC added to supply, Soviet oil was devalued to the extent that they couldn't afford poo poo, including foodstores. It was a factor in their dissolution. The current disruptions in energy supplies, money flow, foodstores, and everything else carried is going to cause major, major dislocations until this poo poo is wrapped up. This is bad global juju.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:32
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The ukrainians seem to be stomping down really hard on absolutely anything that might give away troop movements. That’s not what I mean. I mean if kyiv gets occupied you’re gonna have people “tossing molotovs for the ‘gram”
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Feb 26, 2022 17:34
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Pookah posted:How can Putin survive this? This is a likely outcome but remember that history is not easily sorted into winners and losers. The world will tut tut and then quickly pivot to normal relations so long as Russia has something they want. In order to reach North Korea status you have to be consistently awful AND have nothing capital wants. "How does Putin emerge from this" isn't something we can predict. If it's more beneficial to ice Putin out he'll be forced to make alliances with less cosmopolitan countries, but he's not far from that already. Global politics is extremely cynical and the ethical questions of what Putin is doing will be quickly eclipsed by practical ones.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:34
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Why does Zelwnsky think that NATO would be willing to risk a war with Russia by implementing a no-fly zone? https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/25/nato-ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-00012068
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Feb 26, 2022 17:34
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Why enforce a no fly zone when we can simply send infinite aa weapons through Poland which is apparently fine and loving dandy for Russia
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Feb 26, 2022 17:34
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Pookah posted:How can Putin survive this? Honestly? Not that hard. Link up the forces in-country (it seems he finally sent in the reserves still at the borders), lock it down for a day or two, take come pics of troops in front og the governor's mansion in Kyiv. Declare victory, go home and keep the two provinces that supposedly were the cause of it all. Say "we destroyed their warfighting capability and made our point; don't gently caress with us!" It's basically what the USA did in Iraq back in 1991, and there's few reasons it wouldn't work now. Russia is not nearly as hegemonic as the US was to dodge any consequences, but it was already marginalized from the world stage at large so the backlash can be managed. And a lot of the sanctions would gradually be eased once there are no images of artillery falling on Kyiv city blocks; those Lambos and belgian diamonds need happy buyers, after all. The talk would stay loud and aggressive, but I really think everyone just wants things to go back to normal.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:36
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Why enforce a no fly zone when we can simply send infinite aa weapons through Poland which is apparently fine and loving dandy for Russia I'd say I think the West is going to get some payback for this next time the US goes on an adventure, but the US got away with doing it in Afghanistan without Russia really doing the same elsewhere, so maybe not.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:38
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Grouchio posted:The US/NATO isn't seriously considering a no fly zone are they? Why are we discussing this? Because the longer the war goes on the greater the pressure will be for the west to do something, and a no-fly zone was proposed by a US congressman
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Feb 26, 2022 17:38
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Willo567 posted:Why does Zelwnsky think that NATO would be willing to risk a war with Russia by implementing a no-fly zone? I'm sure he doesn't expect NATO to agree, as an enforced no-fly zone from NATO would put the world on an unacceptable escalation path. I'm also not surprised he's asking.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:40
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a pipe smoking dog posted:That is very interesting as I'd assumed at some point they were going to have to try and shut the border to stop arms arriving from Poland. possibly not great odds operating in western Ukraine furthest from any possible resupply whilst the UA has a stream of care packages handed to them across the border plus I can't imagine sealing the Carpathian forests is actually possible unless they commit a lot more resources?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:40
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Trump posted:Earlier today a Blackhawk was chilling right at the Ukraine border from Poland. I doubt it was carrying pepsi. yeah that would make no sense, blackhawks are under contract with coca cola
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Feb 26, 2022 17:41
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Herstory Begins Now posted:yeah that would make no sense, blackhawks are under contract with coca cola That's what the Dr. Pepper propaganda wants you to believe.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:43
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To be clear, I do not believe a no-fly zone is likely now. But in a few months, if the news is still full of stories of Ukranians fighting against the Russian invaders? Then maybe.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:43
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ronya posted:possibly not great odds operating in western Ukraine furthest from any possible resupply whilst the UA has a stream of care packages handed to them across the border yeah they havent even secured east ukraine. are they even going to take kyiv?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:43
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coelomate posted:I'm sure he doesn't expect NATO to agree, as an enforced no-fly zone from NATO would put the world on an unacceptable escalation path. I'm also not surprised he's asking. Asking has no downsides for Zelenskyy. What's Putin gonna do, put him on a kill list harder?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:44
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Gripweed posted:To be clear, I do not believe a no-fly zone is likely now. But in a few months, if the news is still full of stories of Ukranians fighting against the Russian invaders? Then maybe. No, just no.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:44
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Gripweed posted:To be clear, I do not believe a no-fly zone is likely now. But in a few months, if the news is still full of stories of Ukranians fighting against the Russian invaders? Then maybe. If the invasion phase isn't over in a few months, Russia's already lost.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:44
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Sephyr posted:It's basically what the USA did in Iraq back in 1991, and there's few reasons it wouldn't work now. That’s not at all what the US did. They completely btfo’d what was at the time the largest Middle East army, did it in a way that no one had ever really seen before, suffered no significant casualties, completely ended Iraq as a regional actor, and then hung around for a decade effectively running no fly zones for the Kurds. Americas actions were widely lauded around the world. They also didn’t attack Baghdad. Russia is getting embarrassed in real time, is a world pariah, and is blasting the country’s capitol for no real reason. I’m not saying the us didn’t commit war crimes (like incinerating a retreating column of troops) but nothing like what we’re seeing and going to see in Ukraine. And no matter what the Russian state media says, all these soldiers will eventually come home, and internet savvy Russians will be able to look up what happened. FizFashizzle fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 17:44
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FizFashizzle posted:Just had a dark thought. For maybe the first time we’re going to see what happens when patriotic anti occupation resistance synergies with readily available social media clout chasing. Yeah we've already had those dudes on Snake Island basically livestreaming their own heroic deaths. There's going to be a lot more of that. There's also been a lot of talk of the Russians trying to cut off internet access. So far that's been unsuccessful, but I also don't see how you can do that completely. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if NATO were clandestinely working to keep internet access up.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:44
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So Russia talking about Ukraine as Syrian terrorists is them just implying that this isn’t a war against another nation but rather a domestic insurgency, I imagine. Gotta write tomorrow’s history today!
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Feb 26, 2022 17:44
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KitConstantine posted:Asking has no downsides for Zelenskyy. What's Putin gonna do, put him on a kill list harder? Double plus ungood kill list
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Feb 26, 2022 17:45
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Sinteres posted:If the invasion phase isn't over in a few FTFY 
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Feb 26, 2022 17:45
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Mendrian posted:This is a likely outcome but remember that history is not easily sorted into winners and losers. The world will tut tut and then quickly pivot to normal relations so long as Russia has something they want. In order to reach North Korea status you have to be consistently awful AND have nothing capital wants. There’s not really a “back to normal” after this frankly. Russias probably going to have some sanctions lifted yeah but they’re coming out of this severely weakened no matter what. Their ability to manufacture new weapons is compromised, governments around the world have found out the Russians are overhyped when it comes to fighting any military even remotely in the same vicinity of them. Like this is apparently a peer (or near peer) conflict now and I don’t think people would have called it that in January. Like yeah how much people love them might be the same but how much people fear them (outside their nuclear arsenal at least) has gone way down.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:47
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Gripweed posted:To be clear, I do not believe a no-fly zone is likely now. But in a few months, if the news is still full of stories of Ukranians fighting against the Russian invaders? Then maybe. A no fly zone is a euphemism for war. The US has said repeatedly it won't go to war over this.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:47
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FizFashizzle posted:That’s not at all what the US did. Not to mention that the Gulf War 1.0 was in response to Iraqi actions against Kuwait. Putin can huff and puff all he wants about how Ukraine is really the ones to blame here; the only ones who buy it are those on his payroll.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:47
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The idea that Russia would respond to a no-fly zone to nukes is absolutely absurd. The idea that they'd start pasting bases is absurd. The likely escalatory response would be hitting the air defense sites in Poland that NATO would likely use as the primary enforcement mechanism. It's dangerous because it's a big step down the road towards nukes, but there's still a lot of miles and a lot of off ramps between no-fly zone and nuclear exchange. Acting like it brings us right to world war 3/nukes is crazy Clancy poo poo. Edit: you all remember that we've already seen recently a NATO country downing Russian fighters without WW3 right?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:48
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I am awake again is Kyiv still not Russian?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:48
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punishedkissinger posted:are they even going to take kyiv? I would guess they're going to try over the weekend an obvious Russian second prize behind "all of Ukraine" is to consolidate its presence in eastern Ukraine at some palatable line rather than gunning for all the cities all at once, then try to bring Kyiv to the table by force of arms
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Feb 26, 2022 17:49
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ronya posted:Domestically Indians still feel very pro-Soviet/Russian, with China and Pakistan being the stalwart US allies. The prospect of a Rus-Pak-China compact is steadily applying pressure to shift this calculus, but half a century of cultural affiliation is slow to unwind First Orban, then Modi. I'm wondering starting to wonder if Putin's dark money was keeping their allegiance. And their parties in power. Now that that money is cut off because of sanctions and Putin is viewed as weak, wonder if they still be around in a few years. Going to guess if Trump starts talking about how he always liked Zelensky and how he wanted to give them the Javelins, we'll know that the money's drying up. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 17:49
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Gripweed posted:To be clear, I do not believe a no-fly zone is likely now. But in a few months, if the news is still full of stories of Ukranians fighting against the Russian invaders? Then maybe. No, it's never going to happen. Not enforced by nato anyway. The only way a "no fly zone" happens in Ukraine is so many manpads get shipped through the polish border that every Kievan apartment building is a de facto anti-air battery.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:49
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Yeah short of cutting off oil supplies or taking control of Ukraine’s western borders there’s no real answer Russia has for NATO dumping a poo poo load of weapons into the Ukrainian army’s arms. I think they were hoping for NATO to mostly stay out of things but it seems going for total conquest has pissed a lot of people off. With even loving Germany committing RPGs now I think we’re going to see NATO countries falling over themselves to get anti tank and anti aircraft weapons onto those Polish trucks.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:49
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BigglesSWE posted:Not to mention that the Gulf War 1.0 was in response to Iraqi actions against Kuwait. that saddam probably thought he had US clearance to do
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Feb 26, 2022 17:49
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https://twitter.com/phoenix_de/status/1497576367898214405?t=npQD8zz84i8CPeZzic8-aQ&s=19 Polish PM now in Berlin, along with Lithuanian PM to convince Schulz to provide more aid, stating to the press: "5000 helmets? Is this a joke?", and that nordstream2 is carrying blood of Ukrainian mothers and children along with gas.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:50
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NomChompsky posted:I am awake again is Kyiv still not Russian? No but there’s another all-out assault again tonight. Russias convinced capturing Kyiv’s going to end this
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Feb 26, 2022 17:50
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Sephyr posted:
The US was also on the correct and fully justifiable side of the conflict in the first Gulf War. Saddam was 1000% the aggressor there. But yeah they did dodge consequences for the second Iraq war despite that being as misguided and evil as this invasion of Ukraine. I hope your interpretation of what will/could happen for Ukraine comes true. That’s what I’m hoping for as best case and remotely realistic scenario this point. E: also people remember Vietnam existed right? And how it is reasonably analogous to this Ukraine conflict, but where the US was the invading army on the side of a dubious puppet government and the Russians were supplying materiel and info? That didn’t lead to nukes either. Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 17:50
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Willo567 posted:Why does Zelwnsky think that NATO would be willing to risk a war with Russia by implementing a no-fly zone? Because some NATO state is telling them they might be willing to do this is my only conclusion. I would suspect he's being egged on by one of the Baltic States who are really afraid of Russia.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:51
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There will be no no-fly zones because when Russia says “no” you either look weak or you start a thermonuclear war.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:52
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Sinteres posted:I'd say I think the West is going to get some payback for this next time the US goes on an adventure, but the US got away with doing it in Afghanistan without Russia really doing the same elsewhere, so maybe not. If Russia really wants to stick it to the US they can start by supplying the Russian army with fuel and ammo.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:52
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FishBulbia posted:Ukr defense source confirm snake island did surrender I'll quote the full text for ease of reference. ukrainian border guard posted:We got strong beliefs that all Ukrainian defenders of Zmiiniy Island may be alive As far as I'm concerned, this is not a confirmation of a surrender. They simply state they've received information that some number of those guards may be alive.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:52
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ronya posted:I would guess they're going to try over the weekend U.S. intelligence reports that tens of thousands of reserve troops are now crossing the border. Russia was trying to do the job on the cheap and has now said gently caress it. Russia definitely seems to be looking at carving up the southern & eastern border as a fallback objective, they seem more focused on consolidating those areas than they are on trying to break through in the northeast to encircle Kyiv and/or Ukrainian forces in the field.
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