The Kingfish posted:

Seems like an insanely bad idea to just hand out thousands of guns to an untrained civilian population.

Telsa Cola posted:

Conscription was a thing up until 2013. Theres theoretically a lot of civilians in there mid twenties and up who theoretically know how things go down.

KitConstantine posted:

The whole city is on curfew until 8am Monday and I've seen reports of Kyiv cops politely visiting anyone with a light on.

I'm sure some buildings have lost power but the city government doesn't wanna make the Russians job any easier by leaving the lights on

The Kingfish posted:

Seems like an insanely bad idea to just hand out thousands of guns to an untrained civilian population.

steinrokkan posted:

My brain no understand economic good, but wouldn't Russia's central bank assets be deposited domestically?

The Kingfish posted:

Seems like an insanely bad idea to just hand out thousands of guns to an untrained civilian population.

Dwesa posted:

As someone else corrected me on this forum, it was even renewed after 2014

Alchenar posted:

Yeah but it doesn't matter how much cash you have if the US and everyone else says 'we aren't taking your money'. (and also nobody else can take your money)

The Kingfish posted:

Seems like an insanely bad idea to just hand out thousands of guns to an untrained civilian population.

steinrokkan posted:

OK, I'd assume they'd be able to convert through China or India even if America stopped taking their money... but I guess it's not that easy

steinrokkan posted:

My brain no understand economic good, but wouldn't Russia's central bank assets be deposited domestically?

coelomate posted:

Their central bank has reserves of foreign currency. Ostensibly such sanctions can dramatically limit the ability for that foreign currency to be used.

a pipe smoking dog posted:

As Russia needs to sell a lot of fossil fuels in dollars and euros and then buy goods in those same currencies a major part of their reserves will be banked with the Federal Reserve and the ECB so they don't have to covert them to roubles. This is why some currencies are called "reserve currencies" because countries maintain a large portion of their reserves in these currencies instead of their own.

Vahakyla posted:

KitConstantine posted:

Reports of thermobarics look to have not been exaggerated. for residential area in flames, but no bodies

quote:

The Russian economy is open, and the ruble is convertible, both backed by the FX reserves. But these reserves are largely electronic book entries in the Russian Central Bank accounts with the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and similar Western institutions and clearing houses. There are no physical bonds and certificates. In the language, Western government bonds and other securities and sovereign deposits with Western central and commercial banks are dematerialized and uncertificated.

For example, U.S. Treasuries owned by central banks of 200 countries are book entries on the computers of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, traded by its authorized dealers, with the sale proceeds transmitted electronically via Fedwire to correspondent banks.

From this vantage point, if sanctions hit, the $638 billion FX reserves shrink to their salvage value. Of the $638 billion FX reserves, only $12 billion are dollar and Euro-denominated cash in the vaults of the Russian Central Bank. The gold stored there, worth $139 billion, is hard to sell en masse, especially if the Central Bank falls under the Western sanctions. Another part of FX reserves, $84 billion in Renminbi-denominated instruments, is of little financial use in a crisis. Some $403 billion, almost two-thirds of the FX reserves, are securities and deposits denominated in U.S. dollars, Euro, British pounds and other Western currencies, representing electronic book entries in Western central and commercial banks. If sanctions are imposed on the Russian Central Bank, the $403 billion of its FX electronic holdings in the West could not be used. Russia will be left with little Western cash, unsaleable gold and Chinese bonds.

Central Bank sanctions will ensue three ruinous runs: on foreign currency, on banks and on the supply chains. With only $12 billion available to prop up the ruble, the exchange rate will devalue and collapse. People will run on whatever foreign currency they could obtain at whatever price, as the store of value.

There’s the rub. Russian households and businesses prefer FX to rubles and hold $268 billion in deposits with the state-owned Savings Bank and commercial banks. They will run on banks to withdraw dollars and Euros, the cash quantity the banks cannot have on hand or obtain from the Central Bank, itself barren of FX.

The banking system will fold unless the government forcibly converts FX-denominated deposits into rubles. Either outcome would cause social unrest. It will be exacerbated by the inaccessibility of the sovereign wealth fund to support government social expenditures. Across the supply chains, suppliers will demand dollars from customers, and efficient parts of the economy will dollarize. The rest of the economy will incur supply bottlenecks and stoppages and resort to barter. The economy will break apart and beget long-term political instability.

Dwesa posted:

pls translate for us outside of cyrrilosphere

Dwesa posted:

pls translate for us outside of cyrrilosphere

The Kingfish posted:

Seems like an insanely bad idea to just hand out thousands of guns to an untrained civilian population.

Dwesa posted:

pls translate for us outside of cyrrilosphere

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

You have my sword

And my bow

And my javelin

the popes toes posted:

Irregulars can be surprisingly effective. Determined irregulars more so. As long as they get a uniform with a gun.

The Kingfish posted:

I’ve seen absolutely nothing to indicate they are giving out uniforms. All the pictures are of dudes with AK-47s walking around in jeans. Not good.

The Kingfish posted:

I’ve seen absolutely nothing to indicate they are giving out uniforms. All the pictures are of dudes with AK-47s walking around in jeans. Not good.

ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1497625853160742914

Russia is not blockading the city so civilians can just... steadily leave for the relatively well-supplied western regions; this would be one reason to do so well before a single Russian flag is raised. This seems likely to occur as pedestrian retail supply issues hit the eastern regions. Those most pro-European by family, politics, and economics are most likely to move first, leading to a self-reinforcing political self-selection akin to the DPR/LPR.

This dynamic is a medium-term one and may be completely undone if e.g., the expected assault on the weekend collapses in chaos, or completely routs Kyiv (say). But it's something to consider in terms of the "what happens if this grinds on" forecast. Partition of some kind seems only too plausible.

The Kingfish posted:

I’ve seen absolutely nothing to indicate they are giving out uniforms. All the pictures are of dudes with AK-47s walking around in jeans. Not good.

The Kingfish posted:

I’ve seen absolutely nothing to indicate they are giving out uniforms. All the pictures are of dudes with AK-47s walking around in jeans. Not good.

ZombieLenin posted:

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1497574435280367622?s=20&t=daSSbI0STLaR7zk9KyqJOw

This is a huge loving deal if true because now we would be getting into the truly economically debilitating territory.

EvilHawk posted:

https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1497632817450266632

Germany appear to be sending 1000 anti tank missiles and 500 Stingers to Ukraine.

Pook Good Mook posted:

This is a good post.

I think it was 10 years ago but I remember news stories about Russia and Gulf States trying to come up with an alternative to the dollar for trading your oil for exactly this reason.

a pipe smoking dog posted:

I did a master's degree focused on the Russian economy about 13 years ago and that post is basically all I remember from that time

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Folks, bullying German chancellors just works.

ZombieLenin posted:

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1497574435280367622?s=20&t=daSSbI0STLaR7zk9KyqJOw

This is a huge loving deal if true because now we would be getting into the truly economically debilitating territory.

RedSnapper posted:

Yeah, it's surprising how many Poles show actual, not just vocal, but financial and material support for Ukraine (three people I know have actually offered to house refugees).
The bitter, cynical part of me wonders where was all this humane spirit when people were dying on our border with Belarus.