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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

brains posted:

it's less surprise over ukraine's ability to generate sorties and more about the world's 2nd largest air force's inability to establish air control days after a planned invasion. and then still doing airborne ops in hostile airspace. it's mind boggling.

put another way- russia violated the INF treaty for this

I'm reminded of this clip from The Good Shepherd: https://clip.cafe/the-good-shepherd-2006/soviet-power-a-myth/

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Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

I did not expect Zilensky to rise to the occasion like this. I can’t imagine many world leaders actually putting themselves in danger at all much less basically going down with the ship like he probably will. I figured he was just another oligarch puppet but just a bit sharper in how he played Russia vs NATO, though obviously he thought Putin was much more of a rational actor than seems to be the case.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

CBJSprague24 posted:

CNN says the US believes Putin has "50% of his total assembled power" in Ukraine as of now.

If true that’s really bad for Russia they may not even actually hold Kyiv for any length of time at this rate.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

I wonder if the linguistic and ethnic similarities will cause a defection problem.

Cause it's not like Russians are going to defect in Syria and not very immediately get caught by someone.

In lots of Ukraine they could just change their clothes and pop into the pub without even looking out of place.

Hell a lot of them probably even have family in Ukraine.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


You'd probably wanna surrender formally what with the saboteur paranoia and mandatory military service conscription of 18-60yolds going on tbh

Fragrag
Aug 3, 2007
The Worst Admin Ever bashes You in the head with his banhammer. It is smashed into the body, an unrecognizable mass! You have been struck down.
Some interesting stuff I noticed when checking out the video of Ukrainian forces fighting near Ivankiv.

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1497598058170834948

The location is correct. They seem to be fighting at this large roundabout : https://www.google.com/maps/@50.950592,29.8851703,15.31z west of Ivankiv and they're dug in on the western leg of the roundabout battling Russian forces coming from the north.

If this footage is from today or yesterday, then I'm surprised that there were Ukraine troops so far north of Kyiv and in a position to directly harass and disturb the Russians main MSR on the west side of the Dnieper. Russian troops might have reached as far south as Hostomel and Bucha but it seems their supply routes could still be vulnerable.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

I just saw unverified footage of Ukrainian troops with a captured Russian T-72. The radio was still functioning and belting out Russian comms.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Blind Rasputin posted:

Those weren’t mobile crematoriums they were battalion tactical bread makers.

the silver lining being if the russians can't even keep their T-15 Armata operational how the hell are they going to have time to bake the dead errr bread

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

davecrazy posted:

Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion?

I’d believe it, some far left folk I’ve known in the Seattle area can wind up with bizarre ideas from their echo chamber. One guy thought all white people should be made to leave the city, except he’d be granted an exception for his work for socialist candidates. He also became fixated on the idea of running his small business in a way to minimize profit because of something Chapo said, until his wife yelled at him that they had a baby and only had health insurance because of her crazy hours and that no he would not be adopting a 15 hour work week. He’s gotten better since then.

Naked Bear
Apr 15, 2007

Boners was recorded before a studio audience that was alive!

Fragrag posted:

If this footage is from today or yesterday, then I'm surprised that there were Ukraine troops so far north of Kyiv and in a position to directly harass and disturb the Russians main MSR on the west side of the Dnieper. Russian troops might have reached as far south as Hostomel and Bucha but it seems their supply routes could still be vulnerable.
I think most of the stuff floating around yesterday seemed to indicate that it was really Russian reconnaissance elements and secret squirrel types that were actually pushing the outer parts of Kyiv rather than the main armored thrust.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Lincoln Brigade 2.0

https://twitter.com/shaneharris/status/1497617126215012356?s=21

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


Duzzy Funlop posted:

edit:
Not trying to poo poo on the Gravel "Institute" too hard with that last line, they're absolutely much better than PragerU or whatever, but their content seems to me as occasionally excluding "the full picture", which ends up in somewhat incomplete/disingenuous content, but at least it's still not full-blown propaganda like PragerU bullshit

Agreed with the rest of your post but on this, nah, take it from me, gently caress Gravel "Institute". I was an early supporter and was happy to see them say they were going to attempt to take Prager U's bullshit head on, but all they've done is get high on their own supply and put out their own terrible bullshit that sells false narratives. A lot of these assholes seem to think just because they want Medicare for all, they're also righteous about everything else.

Jarmak posted:

I wonder if the linguistic and ethnic similarities will cause a defection problem.

Cause it's not like Russians are going to defect in Syria and not very immediately get caught by someone.

In lots of Ukraine they could just change their clothes and pop into the pub without even looking out of place.

Hell a lot of them probably even have family in Ukraine.

There was that video posted a day ago of a Ukrainian telling a Russian soldier that if he wanted to drop his gear and change into civvies, he'd hide him in his house from his unit till he could turn himself over to Ukrainian forces. Otherwise, gently caress off and I'll shoot back at you if you shoot at me.

Can't imagine stuff like that was an isolated incident.

Hyrax Attack! posted:

I’d believe it, some far left folk I’ve known in the Seattle area can wind up with bizarre ideas from their echo chamber. One guy thought all white people should be made to leave the city, except he’d be granted an exception for his work for socialist candidates. He also became fixated on the idea of running his small business in a way to minimize profit because of something Chapo said, until his wife yelled at him that they had a baby and only had health insurance because of her crazy hours and that no he would not be adopting a 15 hour work week. He’s gotten better since then.

Genuinely believe the cure for a lot of this kind of stupidity is to "log off".

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

psydude posted:

I just saw unverified footage of Ukrainian troops with a captured Russian T-72. The radio was still functioning and belting out Russian comms.

The Ukranians should start telling the Russians to defect and join them. And/or poo poo talk them like the Chechens did in Grozny.

-Anders
Feb 1, 2007

Denmark. Wait, what?
A couple of Danish journalists in the hospital after getting shot art in their car.

https://twitter.com/Knud_brix/status/1497616879178948620

Woof Blitzer
Dec 29, 2012

[-]

psydude posted:

Yeah, but they're not going to help Russia evade sanctions and risk having their industry crippled by the US.

Part of me wonders about the degree to which some of these issues with Russian logistics and C4ISR have been cheerfully exacerbated by the folks at Ft. Meade.

:nsa:

Androies
Oct 23, 2008

Ask me about my knives
My gf works in the NGO space around civilian casualties and her Ukrainian colleagues have been giving updates via Zoom. She said the last Zoom session ended with a Ukrainian colleague very calmly asking to go first because they had to go to a bomb shelter and the whole time they were talking you could just hear air raid sirens in the background. The "good" news is they are okay and are now slacking quote "videos of IHL violations" to everyone daily.

Soylent Pudding
Jun 22, 2007

We've got people!


Based on that last interview Ukrainian morale seems high.

https://twitter.com/terrelljstarr/status/1497514654242910209

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/carments/status/1497594825167810562?s=21

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

I did not expect Zilensky to rise to the occasion like this. I can’t imagine many world leaders actually putting themselves in danger at all much less basically going down with the ship like he probably will. I figured he was just another oligarch puppet but just a bit sharper in how he played Russia vs NATO, though obviously he thought Putin was much more of a rational actor than seems to be the case.

I mean, the alternatives at this point for him are die defending Ukraine, somehow survive a miraculous defense and the Russian military collapse, or flee wondering if he was important enough to be sent some polonium from Putin.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Duzzy Funlop posted:

I'm kinda assuming the reasoning behind that posting is people so conditioned to anti-US leftist-posting that they swing for the fences on every single thing and end up massively overshooting reality, and then just dying on that hill.

There are some basic sentiments that I share with some of those arguments, but I somehow manage to not completely shut down my brain and go the extra three miles to arrive at "Putin actually good".

Like:
- the West is not without fault in the situation we're in, nevermind the situation the people of Ukraine are in, the full diplomatic "arsenal of tools" at the disposal of western powers could have been used anytime between 2014 and now to let Putin know, with no small certainty, that if he keeps going and stops playing "just the tip", he'll be hit where it hurts him most. His loving money. Alas, doing so would have hit Western nations where it hurts them most...their loving money, sooooo welp
- the West has, indirectly and "almost directly", supported/funded NeoNazi movements in Ukraine leading up to and - in part - post-Euromaidan, and there are absolutely NeoNazi entities that exist which have profited from that support, namely the Azov regiment, Svoboda functionaries, Right Sector, etc.
- calling for the civilian populace to take up arms against Russian forces is going to lead to even more civilian deaths and human suffering than is currently inevitable in the first place

Those are absolutely valid points. But some-loving-how, those posters decide to throw out all reasonable rationale after those points and somehow end up at "This is all the West's/USA's fault, and Russia is AKSHUALLY the poor cornered animal in this situation, and is basically forced to invade Ukraine to cleanse it from Neonazis and protect itself from NATO's aggressive expansion", which is so incredibly broken-brained that I don't even know how to describe it.

Yeah, this is how I feel. It also kinda makes me sick to be cheering on Ukranian freedom fighters when it's very likely we could have done far more (via diplomacy, dissuasion, or by not moving US ships out of the way leading up to the invasion) to prevent war in the first place. But...not so bad that I'm all "now putin is my friend!"

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

Wonder if Ukraine has bagged a general yet. With the level of bungling so far seems inevitable.

Stravag
Jun 7, 2009

brains posted:

the world's 2nd largest air force's

When did the US navy get involved?

Jokers Gamble
May 31, 2013

Hyrax Attack! posted:

Wonder if Ukraine has bagged a general yet. With the level of bungling so far seems inevitable.

I think that's what's crazy about this. We had this idea the Russians were just going to roll over them but they've managed to continually gently caress things up. Not to discount the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians. I think the Russians thought they would roll up a couple cities and the rest would fold, but the exact opposite has happened. The Ukrainians managed to mobilize the entire country into a resistance and are making the Russians pay for every inch. I think they massively underestimated the Ukrainians desire for freedom and autonomy.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

El Mero Mero posted:

Yeah, this is how I feel. It also kinda makes me sick to be cheering on Ukranian freedom fighters when it's very likely we could have done far more (via diplomacy, dissuasion, or by not moving US ships out of the way leading up to the invasion) to prevent war in the first place. But...not so bad that I'm all "now putin is my friend!"

Yeah it’s weird to me how you arrive at the valid conclusion that the United States is often a bad actor and somewhat responsible for a lot of bad situations especially in the Middle East and Latin America but then somehow Putins Russia isn’t responsible for Ukraine

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Tiny Timbs posted:

The response from leftist organizations during this has been utterly absurd. How do they retain any credibility?

https://international.dsausa.org/statements/no-war-with-russia/

That's deeply, deeply disappointing.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Yeah it’s weird to me how you arrive at the valid conclusion that the United States is often a bad actor and somewhat responsible for a lot of bad situations especially in the Middle East and Latin America but then somehow Putins Russia isn’t responsible for Ukraine

Propaganda.

Propaganda works.

Terrifying Effigies
Oct 22, 2008

Problems look mighty small from 150 miles up.

Hyrax Attack! posted:

Wonder if Ukraine has bagged a general yet. With the level of bungling so far seems inevitable.

If Ukraine doesn't then Putin probably will.

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


Comrade Blyatlov posted:

That's deeply, deeply disappointing.

Someone posted this elsewhere but it's from a Ukrainian Leftist basically calling this poo poo out for what it is.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/a-letter-to-the-western-left-from-kyiv/

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Yeah it’s weird to me how you arrive at the valid conclusion that the United States is often a bad actor and somewhat responsible for a lot of bad situations especially in the Middle East and Latin America but then somehow Putins Russia isn’t responsible for Ukraine

Only the West has agency. This is somehow a leftist and non-paternalist view.

Blind Rasputin
Nov 25, 2002

Farewell, good Hunter. May you find your worth in the waking world.

Russia will forever be known after this as the paper bear.

Ukraine the blue and golden lion.

Brute Squad
Dec 20, 2006

Laughter is the sun that drives winter from the human race

An injury to one is an injury to all is not just about workplace safety.

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

brains posted:

world's 2nd largest air force's

That reminds me of in Tomorrow Never Dies when someone mentions how the world’s largest Air Force (China) was about to fight the world’s largest navy (UK) and I don’t think the screenwriters fact checked that.

McNally
Sep 13, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?
I went ahead and ordered a nice MiG-29 model kit and aftermarket Ukrainian markings to put on it. I want the Ghost of Kyiv to be real.

Russia's inability to secure air superiority got me thinking and I wonder how accurate the following scenario might be:

Maybe most of Russia's air force is grounded for maintenance reasons and the key supplier for the parts they need is Ukraine.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers






This owns

McNally
Sep 13, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?

I ran the signs through Google Translate and got the following results:

"ON THE COCK"

"ON THE gently caress AGAIN"

"TO RUSSIA
FOR gently caress"

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


McNally posted:

I ran the signs through Google Translate and got the following results:

"ON THE COCK"

"ON THE gently caress AGAIN"

"TO RUSSIA
FOR gently caress"

Strong "Berserker" vibes.

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

McNally posted:

I went ahead and ordered a nice MiG-29 model kit and aftermarket Ukrainian markings to put on it. I want the Ghost of Kyiv to be real.

Russia's inability to secure air superiority got me thinking and I wonder how accurate the following scenario might be:

Maybe most of Russia's air force is grounded for maintenance reasons and the key supplier for the parts they need is Ukraine.

One thing that always made me think is how hard it can be to maintain US military equipment despite having the best logistics and a monstrous budget, so if anything I'd imagine it would be much worse for any country that doesn't have those kind of resources to throw at a modern war.

Notahippie
Feb 4, 2003

Kids, it's not cool to have Shane MacGowan teeth

Jokers Gamble posted:

I think that's what's crazy about this. We had this idea the Russians were just going to roll over them but they've managed to continually gently caress things up. Not to discount the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians. I think the Russians thought they would roll up a couple cities and the rest would fold, but the exact opposite has happened. The Ukrainians managed to mobilize the entire country into a resistance and are making the Russians pay for every inch. I think they massively underestimated the Ukrainians desire for freedom and autonomy.

The same thing appeared to happen with the Donbas poo poo-stirring - there's a decent argument that Russia got into that with the expectation that there was going to be more ethnic Russian unity and support. If you look at the map of primarily Russian speaking areas in Ukraine, it's a much much larger map than the map of people who identify more with Russia than Ukraine. Putin may be huffing his own farts about the idea of how much people who speak Russian yearn for the return of the glorious Russian empire.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Germany finally dropping the bullshit and sending weapons itself.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1497632817450266632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

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CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Ukraine's Defense Minister is telling Reuters that the march on Kiev is "not advancing".

I guess this was countered by Russia spouting some bullshit about pausing to afford peace talks.

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