|
i blame the olympic committee for forcing Russia's hand here.
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:30
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 00:49 |
|
|
slowdave posted:There was a rumor the other day that they just straight up hosed off immediately after the initial invasion and the leadership is in Poland or somewhere. Could be true. They are an overgrown biker gang and back in 2014 basically got into one fight - got their skulls caved and were bailed out by Ukrainian soldiers.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:31
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:In time-honored SA fashion, you write the ending you want first and then you desperately work back from there Hey, that’s how academics work too. So we are all in sharing in the time honored tradition of the knowledge producers!
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:32
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/mcopelov/status/1496497095473340418 I see people having strong opinions about this tweet being correct or not, because economics are kind of subjective, but the long and short is that the CB sanctions means at least $469bn in damage dealt to Russia.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:32
|
|
|
Cimber posted:I would imagine if Merkel was still in charge things would be different. Apparently germany is refusing to sell any arms to Ukraine as they feel its 'too late'. lmao. I'm sorry but that's just plain wrong. Merkel's government (she ruled for 16 years!!) is directly responsible for nordstream 1 and 2, and even though big plans were made for the "energiewende" to change germany into a renewable energy powerhouse; it eventually turned out to just be shutting down nuclear plants and replacing them with gas turbines that run on russian gas. Besides, germany had a long standing political stance on not supplying arms to countries in current conflict. This was used very loosely though, they didn't have a single issue with selling millions of arms to Turkey, Egypt, Saoudi Arabia, etc. The thing holding them back is their utter reliance on russian fossil fuels.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:32
|
|
|
MikeC posted:I am not really 100% buying that the Russians are stumbling badly narrative. 4 days into the invasion credible reports have Russians on the outskirts of Kyiv coming from their attack through the Chernobyl sector. We know the Ukrainians did blow one of the bridges over the Teteriv 2 days ago so them ending today's fighting on Kyiv's outskirts is a pace of advance that is equal to what the Americans managed in Iraqi Freedom. Baghdad took around 3 days of fighting to secure for the US Army and Kyiv is around the same size geographically so I am sure you are going to hear stories in the days to come about heroic Ukrainian resistance holding out for days when it is entirely possible the Russians are making good progress into the capital. The British MOD has speculated that other major Ukrainian cities in the East that were on their "day 1" objective lists are still not taken. This is only speculation on their part though. We have no idea whether the Russian advances in this area are merely to try and hold whatever Ukrainian forces in those sectors from retreating back to Kyiv to aid its defenses. For the last time: Kyiv is extremely close to Belarus This would be like the US invading Toronto, yeah it would not take long to get there, no poo poo
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:32
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87-are-we-on-the-brink For the record, Adam Tooze is the author of Wages of Destruction, to the best of my knowledge the definitive work in academia about the Nazi wartime economy (and what a complete omnishambles it was). So he's not unfamiliar with the subject, though he may or may not have access to accurate data points to base conclusions on.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:33
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/mcopelov/status/1496497095473340418 The rest is in gold and Chinese debt. They won’t be able to liquidate either.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:33
|
|
|
MikeC posted:I am not really 100% buying that the Russians are stumbling badly narrative. 4 days into the invasion credible reports have Russians on the outskirts of Kyiv coming from their attack through the Chernobyl sector. We know the Ukrainians did blow one of the bridges over the Teteriv 2 days ago so them ending today's fighting on Kyiv's outskirts is a pace of advance that is equal to what the Americans managed in Iraqi Freedom. Baghdad took around 3 days of fighting to secure for the US Army and Kyiv is around the same size geographically so I am sure you are going to hear stories in the days to come about heroic Ukrainian resistance holding out for days when it is entirely possible the Russians are making good progress into the capital. The British MOD has speculated that other major Ukrainian cities in the East that were on their "day 1" objective lists are still not taken. This is only speculation on their part though. We have no idea whether the Russian advances in this area are merely to try and hold whatever Ukrainian forces in those sectors from retreating back to Kyiv to aid its defenses. Can all the "they got to kyiv soo fast!" people look at a map.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:33
|
|
|
KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:the one constant of every war is that everyone burns through fancy weapons way faster than anticipated. It's probably ten day's worth of materiel. Yeah, it isn't much, but keep in mind that Russia is running through their stockpiles as well. The EU thoroughly depleted their whole aerial stocks bombing Libya for about week, for example. I doubt Russia, for all her posturing, is much better supplied.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:34
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:Hey, that’s how academics work too. So we are all in sharing in the time honored tradition of the knowledge producers! As a knowledge content creator, I cinci zoo sniper posted:https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-87-are-we-on-the-brink It does seem entirely possible that Russia, in their hyperfocus on NATO, might've really underestimated how much the rest of the EU can realistically punch back at them if public opinion goes hard enough against them. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Feb 26, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:34
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:The rest is in gold and Chinese debt. They won’t be able to liquidate either. Will they be able to liquidate what germany and italy are currently paying them for a steady flow of gas?
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:35
|
|
|
the freezing of the russian central banks assets is enormous. The russian government has been desperately trying to prop up the rouble for the last few days, with their foreign reserves frozen you are very much in a hyperinflation situation as they try to keep the economy liquid. Expect runs on banks and sovereign debt defaults.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:35
|
|
|
are they actually freezing central bank assets? the white house statement saidquote:Second, we commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:36
|
|
|
the whole "we have 469b in foreign reserves what can the idiot american sanctions do to us" story ending with "uh we had it in the united states federal reserve and now they're not honoring our checks" was not how i expected that to go
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:36
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Will they be able to liquidate what germany and italy are currently paying them for a steady flow of gas? Probably not because that's going to be paid in Euros and the russian goverment can't convert those Euros into Roubles. They could just do a zimbabwe and start allowing people to use Euros but that is a massive legitimacy hit for the goverment.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:36
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Will they be able to liquidate what germany and italy are currently paying them for a steady flow of gas? If a dude is making/working with $1000 and then suddenly $900 of that income is suddenly frozen the $100 dollars they have coming in isn't going to be of much help.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:36
|
|
|
Thank you Mooseontheloose, Telsa Cola, cinci zoo sniper and BigglesSWE for your replies to my hazy post. Illuminating replies!
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:37
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:the whole "we have 469b in foreign reserves what can the idiot american sanctions do to us" story ending with "uh we had it in the united states federal reserve and now they're not honoring our checks" was not how i expected that to go Appears it's all in the bundesbank going by the article above, but yeah
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:37
|
|
|
Cimber posted:I would imagine if Merkel was still in charge things would be different. Apparently germany is refusing to sell any arms to Ukraine as they feel its 'too late'. You missed the news, Germany switched today and are instead sending PGS and javelins to Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:37
|
|
|
a pipe smoking dog posted:Probably not because that's going to be paid in Euros and the russian goverment can't convert those Euros into Roubles. They could just do a zimbabwe and start allowing people to use Euros but that is a massive legitimacy hit for the goverment. People need to be able to get access to those euros though It would have to be Chinese yuan or Indian rupees lol
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:38
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Will they be able to liquidate what germany and italy are currently paying them for a steady flow of gas? That depends. Even if there was no swift ban at all though, the money going to state fossil fuel companies isn’t going to be enough to help with Russia’s new currency reserve problem. Not even close.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:38
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:I'm guessing in a few hours we'll hear that the troopers have all been killed and it will be unclear for another 8 decades if they ever existed. Are there any active russki propaganda channels out there to see their spin on the invasion?
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:38
|
|
|
lilljonas posted:You missed the news, Germany switched today and are instead sending PGS and javelins to Ukraine. Its Panzerfausts (probably) and Stingers. The Panzerfausts aren't as effective as Javis but they can also be fired in enclosed spaces and will make the urban combat a nightmare.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:39
|
|
|
Turrurrurrurrrrrrr posted:Are there any active russki propaganda channels out there to see their spin on the invasion? honestly, rt.com
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:40
|
|
|
Telsa Cola posted:They just approved shipment of 1k ATGMs and 500 Stinger AA missiles. Which is fairly impressive amount. The Panzerfaust 3 is not guided. It's "gimmick" is that it's an RPG you can fire without worrying about backblast. Samopsa posted:lmao. I'm sorry but that's just plain wrong. Merkel's government (she ruled for 16 years!!) is directly responsible for nordstream 1 and 2, and even though big plans were made for the "energiewende" to change germany into a renewable energy powerhouse; it eventually turned out to just be shutting down nuclear plants and replacing them with gas turbines that run on russian gas. No. The CDU actively dismantled the then world-leading German solar and wind industry, destroying tens of thousands of jobs in the sector and letting China take the lead instead. Gas has not replaced nuclear energy. Gas is critical for heating. And yes, the CDU (and SPD, let's not let them off the hook) have made no plans for replacing it at all.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:40
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Yeah, it isn't much, but keep in mind that Russia is running through their stockpiles as well. The EU thoroughly depleted their whole aerial stocks bombing Libya for about week, for example. I doubt Russia, for all her posturing, is much better supplied. For sure, there's been some speculation that Russia is running low on TBMs and anti-radiation missiles and that the latter in particular is helping Ukranian air defense survive. The Russians did like to keep relatively large stocks of munitions for various eventualities, but I suspect that's mostly huge quantities of small arms, tank, and dumb artillery / rockets.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:41
|
|
|
Antigravitas posted:The Panzerfaust 3 is not guided. It's "gimmick" is that it's an RPG you can fire without worrying about backblast. Ah gently caress I hosed that up again. Thank you for the correction.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:41
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497702921521311746?s=21 Oh please be true. If the Army starts to mutiny Putin really is done.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:42
|
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:People need to be able to get access to those euros though Yeah the only realistic way I see out of this is the Chinese government buying roubles for yuan to try and prop up the Russian but I think 1. they don't actually give enough of a poo poo about helping the Russians, and 2. It would mean Putin was entirely in hock to the Chinese which again is a massive legitimacy hit.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
Cimber posted:I would imagine if Merkel was still in charge things would be different. Apparently Germany is refusing to sell any arms to Ukraine as they feel its 'too late'. Scholz only became Chancellor in December 2021. Since then he has stopped Nord Stream 2 and has agreed to (for the first time ever!) deliver weapons to a non-NATO member in an active war. Merkel had 16 years being in charge to do something different.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497702921521311746?s=21 The source website looks incredibly unreliable, and I can't find a story matching this on it atm, though I'm having to work through google translate.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:44
|
|
|
Yeah Merkel would have absolutely done nothing in this situation and it's pretty ridiculous to pretend otherwise. She was a major part of the inertia in Germany foreign policy that everyone is have to overcome.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:45
|
|
|
a pipe smoking dog posted:Yeah the only realistic way I see out of this is the Chinese government buying roubles for yuan to try and prop up the Russian but I think 1. they don't actually give enough of a poo poo about helping the Russians, and 2. It would mean Putin was entirely in hock to the Chinese which again is a massive legitimacy hit. They are not too hot to help Russia financially, if I had to guess. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commodities
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:45
|
|
|
Dumb question, How are Western nations like Germany, France, United States, etc. able to supply Ukraine with anything at this point? Wouldn't Russia's simply cut off supplies at the border between Poland for example?
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:45
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Dumb question, My understanding is that cutting off the border requires occupying it. Which is a bit difficult when the border is full of angry Ukrainians with shiny new Western toys.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:47
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Dumb question, They would have to have an army at that border and they aren't there yet, plus the Ukrainians are and they have all these shiny new stingers and javelins
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:47
|
|
|
Turrurrurrurrrrrrr posted:Are there any active russki propaganda channels out there to see their spin on the invasion? this is the angle they want  Ukr and Ru working together to "liberate" country
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:47
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:They are not too hot to help Russia financially, if I had to guess. china doesn't really have a choice there. they have to comply with us sanctions lest they themselves are sanctioned.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 00:49 |
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Dumb question, They haven't gotten that far and and trying to do that would cause a massive humanitarian crisis as thats the current major refugee route out of Ukraine. Also since supplies are coming in that way theoretically any military troops stationed there are very well equipped and also EXTREMELY motivated due to the refugees. From what little we know the Russian plan has been balls to the walls advances trying to capture key points and ignoring others which means poo poo like that gets ignored for a bit.
|
|
#
?
Feb 26, 2022 23:47
|
|