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I feel like that'd be close to losing a chunk of the 101st at this point
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Feb 27, 2022 03:12
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Yeah il76s have been produced for decades for civilian and military operators, but the loss of 2 (or possibly 4) full crews is a completely different matter. They can probably scrap shiity plane to make the better planes run for decades, but i would guess that russia has a harder time keeping pilots in their military than the US does when you can walk out the door and grab a job with limited retraining and get paid way more than you can in the military. Ontop of that there are times when russia hasnt been ABLE to pay their military for months at a time. Thats not even getting into how many troopers went down with the planes or possibly more importantly with the logistics issues, the cargo that would have been dropped in alongside the troops.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:14
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Given how civil Ukraine has been thus far, there's a good chance there's not close-ups of the single alleged confirmed downing of a Candid because there might be a lot of gory aftermath. Also, if it was downed by something other than MANPADS it'd stand to reason Ukraine doesn't want to give Russia free Intel where their Buks are.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:15
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What's then holy gently caress if real
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Feb 27, 2022 03:17
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3 months from now it will be "934th confirmed loss of an IL-76, this one was killed by our supermodel/sniper who specializes in scoped revolvers and also writes poetry"
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Feb 27, 2022 03:18
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I'm just waiting for footage so that I can make a "Curb Your Vertical Envelopment" gag.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:24
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To be clear, didn't mean to poo poo on anyone's reporting of stuff coming out of twitter, its just that this is also one of the first wars where everyone on the outside looking in has realized the value of OSINT, but potentially not the pitfalls of OSINT possibly being fabricated. War's brand new, nobody *still* knows what's going on, beyond the broadest level of "poo poo is not going the way Russia expected."
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Feb 27, 2022 03:28
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Milo and POTUS posted:What's then holy gently caress if real The initial reaction to every live tweet from the war zone?
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Feb 27, 2022 03:30
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Xakura posted:You can't blame that on the ukrainians There's only a couple of bridges suitable for armor on that stretch of river, and one's near Chernobyl. The power station was a sideshow to getting tanks and IFVs down from Belarus towards Kiyv
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Feb 27, 2022 03:31
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To get the response they'd want, you'd have to attack some russian city.
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That's entirely fair. You could also think of us as cheering on the underdog in a title fight, every punch he lands is a victory.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:31
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orange juche posted:To be clear, didn't mean to poo poo on anyone's reporting of stuff coming out of twitter, its just that this is also one of the first wars where everyone on the outside looking in has realized the value of OSINT, but potentially not the pitfalls of OSINT possibly being fabricated. War's brand new, nobody *still* knows what's going on, beyond the broadest level of "poo poo is not going the way Russia expected." There was a briefing with US defense officials this morning. tl;dr is that an estimated 50% of the active Russian military is believed to be engaged in Ukraine at this time, modern ATGMs used by Ukrainian infantry in terrain have been horrifyingly effective, and that Ukrainian air defense and air force have been far more effective and resilient than anticipated.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:33
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Ugly In The Morning posted:I got put in Twitter jail for tweeting at Putin that he should “eat poo poo and die”. I salute your sacrifice.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:33
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Cythereal posted:There was a briefing with US defense officials this morning. tl;dr is that an estimated 50% of the active Russian military is believed to be engaged in Ukraine at this time, modern ATGMs used by Ukrainian infantry in terrain have been horrifyingly effective, and that Ukrainian air defense and air force have been far more effective and resilient than anticipated. Wait, that's 50% of the TOTAL active military? I thought it was 50% of the forces massed.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:34
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Cythereal posted:There was a briefing with US defense officials this morning. tl;dr is that an estimated 50% of the active Russian military is believed to be engaged in Ukraine at this time, modern ATGMs used by Ukrainian infantry in terrain have been horrifyingly effective, and that Ukrainian air defense and air force have been far more effective and resilient than anticipated. Link? Also, whether or not the "Ghost of Kiev" and all the dead paratroopers are real, it's undeniable that Ukraine has done significant damage to the Russian invasion force and slowed them a lot more than anyone expected. That's real.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:34
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https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1497732585518247936?s=20&t=LqsVD6sjPP_Bcf2335bhWg
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Feb 27, 2022 03:34
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Ugly In The Morning posted:I got put in Twitter jail for tweeting at Putin that he should “eat poo poo and die”. Actually you're a pretty cool IK.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:35
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:That's entirely fair. You could also think of us as cheering on the underdog in a title fight, every punch he lands is a victory. That’s true, yeah, but this is like the goddamn Wepner Vs Ali fight right now. orange juche posted:Actually you're a pretty cool IK. Still trying to figure out who did that one. I thought it was Desert Bus because of the Moby joke but apparently someone else picked that one up.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:36
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That Works posted:https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1497732585518247936?s=20&t=LqsVD6sjPP_Bcf2335bhWg Ah poo poo well that ought to do it, back to your base everyone. Start weapons cleaning and rotate out for chow.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:38
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Lol swift went through, and suddenly putin lost tulsi
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Feb 27, 2022 03:40
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Wait, that's 50% of the TOTAL active military? I thought it was 50% of the forces massed. Stultus Maximus posted:Link? Bylatov was correct. Sorry, misremembered! The 50% estimate was from a CNN interview and was 50% of the forces massed, not total. The official briefing: https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1497597844534042628 quote:A Saturday morning background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine just concluded.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:42
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Xakura posted:Lol swift went through, and suddenly putin lost tulsi How many days till Tucker does the heel turn
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Feb 27, 2022 03:44
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Bears are airborne, probably. https://twitter.com/te3ej/status/1497750781633736706
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Feb 27, 2022 03:45
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Wikipedia says the total production run for the Il-76 was ~950, and that Russia had a 2016 fleet of ~120. The rest of the production has either attritted or stayed with the host country after the Soviet Union collapsed. There are photos of a downed Il-76 tail ball turret gun sitting among wreckage in a field, but that is from a Ukrainian Il-76 Russia shot-down back in 2014.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:55
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Nuclear Tourist posted:Bears are airborne, probably. poo poo, aren’t those loaded exclusively with cruise missiles? Unless Ukraine has things to intercept (unlikely) or some “Ukrainian” jets step in, this is gonna be bad.
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Feb 27, 2022 03:59
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Cythereal posted:Bylatov was correct. Sorry, misremembered! The 50% estimate was from a CNN interview and was 50% of the forces massed, not total. It’s 50% of the 70% of their total forces (which were massed at the boarder) So 35% of the entire Russian military is in Ukraine.
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Feb 27, 2022 04:05
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Naramyth posted:It’s 50% of the 70% of their total forces (which were massed at the boarder) Quick! Invade from the Aleutians!
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Feb 27, 2022 04:05
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Nuclear Tourist posted:Bears are airborne, probably. gently caress Also post/user name combo
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Feb 27, 2022 04:05
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Naramyth posted:It’s 50% of the 70% of their total forces (which were massed at the boarder) Is it, like, everyone who got put on. Performance Improvement Plan, orrr….
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Feb 27, 2022 04:06
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Ugly In The Morning posted:poo poo, aren’t those loaded exclusively with cruise missiles? Unless Ukraine has things to intercept (unlikely) or some “Ukrainian” jets step in, this is gonna be bad. Russia has lobbed a lot of cruise missiles into Ukraine in the last few days, this is just yet another strike.
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Feb 27, 2022 04:07
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Naramyth posted:gently caress With the range of the missiles, and how visible and slow those things are, it feels like a dare for the RAF typhoons to try something and bring NATO in.
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Feb 27, 2022 04:07
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Ugly In The Morning posted:Is it, like, everyone who got put on. Performance Improvement Plan, orrr…. Probably a lot of conscripts who were told they were just on wargames duty until “get in blayt, we’re going invading”
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Feb 27, 2022 04:08
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Ugly In The Morning posted:With the range of the missiles, and how visible and slow those things are, it feels like a dare for the RAF typhoons to try something and bring NATO in. No NATO country is going to risk escalation over a cruise missile strike. Don't mean to pour cold water on things there but nobody's going to escalate to direct conflict between NATO and Russia unless Russia swings first, and it's a deliberate attack.
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Feb 27, 2022 04:11
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Naramyth posted:Probably a lot of conscripts who were told they were just on wargames duty until “get in blayt, we’re going invading”
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Feb 27, 2022 04:12
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Commissar is just Russian for first shirt
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Feb 27, 2022 04:15
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orange juche posted:No NATO country is going to risk escalation over a cruise missile strike. Don't mean to pour cold water on things there but nobody's going to escalate to direct conflict between NATO and Russia unless Russia swings first, and it's a deliberate attack. Dare isn’t really the right word. It’s obvious and loud and they know there’s NATO fighters there. Taunt! That’s the word I was looking for.
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Feb 27, 2022 04:19
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Pine Cone Jones posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497614458973306888?t=D6lC7wAtRXqAS5tIFjsxkA&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 04:27
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Nuclear Tourist posted:Bears are airborne, probably. Why the gently caress does Russia do comm in the weirdest way? Like how is sending - . - over shortwave over and over helping anything?
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Feb 27, 2022 04:27
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Elon Musk is reportedly sending Starlink terminals to Ukraine as Russia appears to be disrupting Internet connectivity there. This may not be a good thing at all since it can be triangulated and targeted. https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1497745011932286979
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Feb 27, 2022 04:27
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pantslesswithwolves posted:Elon Musk is reportedly sending Starlink terminals to Ukraine as Russia appears to be disrupting Internet connectivity there. That implies any of their actions are based on real time intel. Russia hasn't acted rationally so far, why would they start using logic now?
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Feb 27, 2022 04:32
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ASAPI posted:That implies any of their actions are based on real time intel. They’ll just triangulate it and try to drop paratroopers on it.
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Feb 27, 2022 04:38
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