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Kavros posted:Why is this a war seemingly featuring fantastically numerous cellphone video'd instances of There was a long post about this time yesterday about how Russian command structures are so fractured and ill prepared that individual units are just being sent towards a broad objective with no sort of reconnaissance or cooperation with other units. All the footage of random tanks and convoys getting ambushed does seem to support this.
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Feb 27, 2022 10:53
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KitConstantine posted:Them boys up in Sumy are doing work today Shooting an abandoned/immobile tank. You can hear the shrapnel whizzing by after it's hit.
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Feb 27, 2022 10:54
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Kavros posted:Why is this a war seemingly featuring fantastically numerous cellphone video'd instances of Russia had no plan, it was literally "march towards Kiev with our big numbers and zelensky will surrender and all the Ukraine army will surrender and then all the ukranians will wave Russia flags and hoot And holler to celebrate their liberation from the yoke of ukranian fascism" What's actually happened is decades of command incompetence, corruption, poor morale and motivation has resulted in the army being totally incapable of doing combined operations, troops surrendering due to lack of supplies and baffling decisions such as sending unsupported tank advances into obvious ambushes, while Putin's rhetoric has turned the entire ukrainian populace against him and mobilised everyone who can wield a gun against the invasion. Zelensky refusing to surrender and staying in Kiev has also shamed the west and any one in Ukraine wavering on fighting. Drone_Fragger fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 10:55
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Kavros posted:Why is this a war seemingly featuring fantastically numerous cellphone video'd instances of Armor gets order to move on Kyiv, orders can't be disobeyed, better move on as fast as we can! Don't care about anything else, like if other units are also going, or if we have fuel and ammunition. Infantry also gets an order to move in the same direction, starts moving at its own pace to get there as soon as possible, also not caring about anything else. The supply train ditto. Everybody ends up stranded at different points along the road for different reasons that could have been easily avoided had the officers not been automatons trained to please and literally obey their superiors with no regard for reason, logic and operational realities. There was a convoy of riot police that drove all the way to Kyiv on Friday with absolutely no cover because somebody told them to.
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Feb 27, 2022 10:55
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Tomn posted:Who is saying this here? I don’t doubt that it happening somewhere on the Twittersphere because the Internet gonna Internet, but I don’t recall seeing it here. Aside from that one Ukrainian “You have my Javelin” meme but that was mocking how Western support consisted of giving the Ukrainians arms and waving as they went off to fight. I might've gotten triggered by one of those twitter posts  Also, there was that one weird "Putin in His Urals Wolf's Den Summoning the Oligarchs" post that has been shared here and people folks were on the verge of discussing it in a serious manner.Also, do we have any information as to what's going on around LDNR? IIRC a large part of Ukrainian military is still there, and it's probably where most of the conventional warfare is currently happening (what's currently happening in Kyiv and Kharkiv is more akin to combat recon on Russia's part tbh)
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Feb 27, 2022 10:57
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Mokotow posted:Emotions come, I don't know why Hey Mokotow, I tried to PM you but you don't have it/it's disabled. Cinci zoo sniper suggested I check with you about helping refugees at the border. I might be able to get to the Slovakian one, but I've no idea what needs to be done there and if I would actually be helpful there. It's not exactly close to me so I can't just pop down to see what's up. Do people arriving need supplies? Shelter? Help talking with the locals? I could drive down there with a car full of stuff but it'd take the whole day basically so it'd like to have some idea about what's happening before I commit. You can email me at mobby.6kl@gmail.com instead and we can then exchange whatsapp or whatever.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:00
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nurmie posted:I might've gotten triggered by one of those twitter posts It seems like the Russians haven't made any real push out of the currently held areas in the East and are instead trying to encircle the Ukrainian army by capturing the East bank of the Dnieper in the South and Kharkiv in the north.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:00
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Kavros posted:Why is this a war seemingly featuring fantastically numerous cellphone video'd instances of This was a really good twitter thread last night analysising what we are seeing. Like everything it is 'best guess' from OSINT but I think the narrative aligns with everything we've seen enough that there's a ring of truth to it (cherry picking my quotes, but read the whole thing): https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1497498201527521281 https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1497498218191544321 https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1497498226781470725 One of the interesting takeaways that I find quite attractive and will look in the future to see if other analaysis concurs is that the intelligence releases last week that might have delayed the Russian invasion might really have screwed them up. Extra days in the forests eating all their rations and using up the fuel they deployed with means that when they got the go-order they were less prepared than they should have been. Also it might be that batallion tactical groups are just too small for this kind of high-intensity peer warfare, if you are going to do big mechanised maneuver warfare then you need to do it as a division.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:01
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Wasn’t it also mentioned that there’s evidence of at least some of the conscripts having been signed on in December, IE not really a lot of time in terms of training? And that as a result a lot of them are just staying in their APCs to feel safe instead of dismounting to provide proper screening?nurmie posted:I might've gotten triggered by one of those twitter posts Oh yeah that was weird. It did get pushback pretty quickly, though.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:02
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Majorian posted:https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497867694233767937 I'm not a military guy, so can someone tell me how much decision making in a conflict goes on at, say, the battalion level, how much is dictated by army high-command and how much of it would be dictated by Putin himself? When a Russian advance is repelled, who exactly is making the decision to retreat on the Russian side? Because it seems to me that the willingness to shoot at Ukrainian people and to use heavy artillery in civilian areas is going to decrease pretty dramatically as you get down the chain of command. I'm sure that most of the Russian troops on an individual would be sickened by the thought of killing Ukrainians, especially given the lack of a coherent pretext for the war and the fact that most of them wouldn't have even dreamt of being in this situation a week ago. Can any of the Russian military failures (such as this repulsion) be put down to lack of motivation at the more granular level, or does the higher command dictate troop behaviour in detail (e.g. whether the units shoot or hold fire, hold the line or retreat etc.)? If Putin makes the call to go scorched Earth on a particular city, then is that order likely to be carried out faithfully? Is there enough autonomy at the battalion level (with respect to military targets, how many troops are committed etc.) to avoid at least some of the senseless bloodshed, or is Putin ultimately calling all the shots here?
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Feb 27, 2022 11:02
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Drone_Fragger posted:Russia had no plan, it was literally "march towards Kiev with our big numbers and zelensky will surrender and all the Ukraine army will surrender and then all the ukranians will wave Russia flags and hoot And holler to celebrate their liberation from the yoke of ukranian fascism" While I'm tempted to agree, I remember people earlier in the thread were pointing out that the Battle of Baghdad took several weeks...so I suppose that if Russia achieves its objectives within the following days, that's still arguably a success. Problem is that it's not very clear what those objectives even are.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:04
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Tomn posted:There actually was a Russian chief of staff who got fired a little bit ago, wasn’t there? Valery something? I’m not seeing solid confirmation for that one.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:04
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Drone_Fragger posted:Russia had no plan, it was literally "march towards Kiev with our big numbers and zelensky will surrender and all the Ukraine army will surrender and then all the ukranians will wave Russia flags and hoot And holler to celebrate their liberation from the yoke of ukranian fascism" It is befuddling to see them repeat The First Chechen war mistakes again with the only learnt lesson being "destroy opposition at home so its easier to not disclose the losses".
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Feb 27, 2022 11:05
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Brilliant propaganda. I havent clicked through to the site but I've seen POW identifications popping up so it seems like it might be getting some traction https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497871771466412039?t=VkShDuW6S0lmAKrw9GMyDw&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 11:06
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Blurred posted:I'm not a military guy, so can someone tell me how much decision making in a conflict goes on at, say, the battalion level, how much is dictated by army high-command and how much of it would be dictated by Putin himself? When a Russian advance is repelled, who exactly is making the decision to retreat on the Russian side? The Russian Way of War Here is a book.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:07
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quarantinethepast posted:Here's an interesting video that lays out some possible reasons for the Russian invasion. Of course the matter of NATO expansion is considered, but the more novel argument is that Ukraine could become a major supplier and competitor against Russia in natural gas. So there's a possibility that Putin has launched a war for oil and his forces are expecting to be greeted as liberators? 
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Feb 27, 2022 11:07
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https://twitter.com/olganyc1211/status/1497814400551559170?s=21 The money will be worthless anyway
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Feb 27, 2022 11:07
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a pipe smoking dog posted:It seems like the Russians haven't made any real push out of the currently held areas in the East and are instead trying to encircle the Ukrainian army by capturing the East bank of the Dnieper in the South and Kharkiv in the north. I'm kind of sensing that Russian forces are not particularly interested in anything west of the Dnieper, tbh. All pushes towards Lvov/Odessa thus far seemed to be feints. I get the sense that Russia's main objective might be to secure the Crimea-Donbas land bridge after all, with regime change/getting Kiev being secondary to that.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:08
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Drone_Fragger posted:Russia had no plan, it was literally "march towards Kiev with our big numbers and zelensky will surrender and all the Ukraine army will surrender and then all the ukranians will wave Russia flags and hoot And holler to celebrate their liberation from the yoke of ukranian fascism" Ukraine has also spent 8 straight years preparing for this obviously eventual conflict. Meanwhile Russia legitimately appeared to believe that it was going to be closer to a repeat of 2014 than anything else, which in retrospect was a little bit of a miscalculation.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:08
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https://twitter.com/stratcomcentre/status/1497853085724590087
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Feb 27, 2022 11:12
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Alchenar posted:One of the interesting takeaways that I find quite attractive and will look in the future to see if other analaysis concurs is that the intelligence releases last week that might have delayed the Russian invasion might really have screwed them up. Extra days in the forests eating all their rations and using up the fuel they deployed with means that when they got the go-order they were less prepared than they should have been. Fascinating. I also want to see the postmortem on that. Whatever intel the US was broadcasting appeared to serve a proper purpose and ended up spot-on, so it would have meant several abrupt timetable disruptions leading to silly supply failures even for troops on Russian soil.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:13
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nurmie posted:I'm kind of sensing that Russian forces are not particularly interested in anything west of the Dnieper, tbh. All pushes towards Lvov/Odessa thus far seemed to be feints. You think it will end with Russia attempting to set up an integrated puppet state across Eastern Ukraine? It's possible, they would struggle to hold the West (particularly Lviv) long-term.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:15
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Phlegmish posted:You think it will end with Russia attempting to set up an integrated puppet state across Eastern Ukraine? It's possible, they would struggle to hold the West (particularly Lviv) long-term.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:18
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There’s a “referendum” in Belarus today, on allowing Russian nukes to be deployed in Belarus.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:19
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Phlegmish posted:You think it will end with Russia attempting to set up an integrated puppet state across Eastern Ukraine? It's possible, they would struggle to hold the West (particularly Lviv) long-term. Possibly, we'll soon find out I guess. I wouldn't be surprised if it's their second-best, not-great-not-terrible planned outcome for all of this - the very best option being the success of the "decapitation strike" on the first day. Failing that, securing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the land bridge. Failing that, welp.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There’s a “referendum” in Belarus today, on allowing Russian nukes to be deployed in Belarus. I've got a feeling I somehow know the result already
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Feb 27, 2022 11:20
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Earliest assessments were that Ukraine could potentially put up a stiff fight but would eventually be overwhelmed by far superior Russian numbers and a kind of lovely defensive strategic position barring sanctions crippling Putin or convincing him to pull back. Do we still think that’s true? Signs of high morale and Russian failures have been heartening, but are we prepared yet to call it a big enough shitshow on Putin’s part that he might actually stalemate or even lose? There’s still a lot of troops that have yet to go into action, no?
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Feb 27, 2022 11:20
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Our best hope is that this war fails, Putin loses support at home and gets kicked out of power because of it. Things are trending in that direction and it's loving awesome.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:20
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https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1497878510937022470
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Feb 27, 2022 11:21
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There’s a “referendum” in Belarus today, on allowing Russian nukes to be deployed in Belarus.  Can't wait to enter the next Cool Zone.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:25
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German Chancellor Scholz is currently speaking. He's just pledged to raise defence spending to over 2% of GDP, it's currently at about 1.5%. So another big L for Putin.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:28
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Phlegmish posted:I've got a feeling I somehow know the result already Would be funny if Batka decided this was the time for one of his patented big brain pivots, only to get curbstomped by Putin as a reminder that he has already sold his soul to the devil.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:28
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  3 Dead Russians out of a TGR(?) at an obvious ambush location. No translation in the comments I saw. Ukrainian soldiers checking the bodies. https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497867648142565378?s=20&t=LP1YKvkllwPamMuKbkzv-A Damm you Putin.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:29
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Projections of inevitable Russian victory should perhaps be put on hold until they do one single loving solitary thing correctly and/or successfully. I fully accept they are larger and more powerful, but uuh, the rubber sure hasn't met the road yet, has it? https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1497881516281671683?t=3CrjjEENL-RAwRUZhicQBg&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 11:30
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Tomn posted:Earliest assessments were that Ukraine could potentially put up a stiff fight but would eventually be overwhelmed by far superior Russian numbers and a kind of lovely defensive strategic position barring sanctions crippling Putin or convincing him to pull back. Do we still think that’s true? Signs of high morale and Russian failures have been heartening, but are we prepared yet to call it a big enough shitshow on Putin’s part that he might actually stalemate or even lose? There’s still a lot of troops that have yet to go into action, no? Honestly, now that the high emotions and the shock of the first two days is receding, I'm not seeing any significant failures on the part of Russian forces that can be corroborated by hard evidence - sure, we've all Seen Footage, but taking the scale of this conflict into account it's not saying much that a bunch of Russian platoons/companies/columns are doing some oopsies. As I said, most of the losses that we currently have concrete, video evidence for seem to be light mechanized infantry doing combat recon probes - dying like that is basically part of their job. That, and logistics convoys getting ambushed, which suggests that Ukrainian military is already operating in partisan warfare mode, which in turn doesn't bode well for their capabilities at mounting conventional defensive action. Of course, Ukrainian information warfare game is on point, and they have full control of the narrative, which is why aforementioned oopsies get presented as proof for the inevitable and imminent collapse of the Russian invasion. Sadly, I don't see that happening any time soon. Not to say that the Russian military hasn't made some really bewildering mistakes, of course.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:30
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Tomn posted:Earliest assessments were that Ukraine could potentially put up a stiff fight but would eventually be overwhelmed by far superior Russian numbers and a kind of lovely defensive strategic position barring sanctions crippling Putin or convincing him to pull back. Do we still think that’s true? Signs of high morale and Russian failures have been heartening, but are we prepared yet to call it a big enough shitshow on Putin’s part that he might actually stalemate or even lose? There’s still a lot of troops that have yet to go into action, no? Yeah, by the.numbers Russia should very much still win this but by the numbers Russia should have established air superiority three days ago.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:32
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Tomn posted:Earliest assessments were that Ukraine could potentially put up a stiff fight but would eventually be overwhelmed by far superior Russian numbers and a kind of lovely defensive strategic position barring sanctions crippling Putin or convincing him to pull back. Do we still think that’s true? Signs of high morale and Russian failures have been heartening, but are we prepared yet to call it a big enough shitshow on Putin’s part that he might actually stalemate or even lose? There’s still a lot of troops that have yet to go into action, no? It's too early to tell, we get all the information from one side only and we're quick to hold on to Ukrainian hero stories and Russian blunders. All we ever get is a slice of reality, we never get the full story, that and the cirkejerk nature of the internet makes me take all news with a grain of salt since people are quick to spin every story into a success for their side. Meanwhile Russia is expanding it's control over Ukraine, and remember that the war has only been going on for 3 days, we don't know what the plan was for Russia, we don't know if they expected this to go quick or if they expected to be greeted as liberators as some posters put it. With that being said, I do hope Ukraine wins this
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Feb 27, 2022 11:32
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Tomn posted:Earliest assessments were that Ukraine could potentially put up a stiff fight but would eventually be overwhelmed by far superior Russian numbers and a kind of lovely defensive strategic position barring sanctions crippling Putin or convincing him to pull back. Do we still think that’s true? Signs of high morale and Russian failures have been heartening, but are we prepared yet to call it a big enough shitshow on Putin’s part that he might actually stalemate or even lose? There’s still a lot of troops that have yet to go into action, no? Nobody thinks Ukraine can win the war militarily. They have a gigantic front line, are outnumbered, and vastly outgunned. Though perhaps a negotiated peace is possible, instead of a surrender, if the war is sufficiently costly for Russia. But make no mistake, Russia is in a far stronger position and they have the initiative.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:33
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Just saw on BBC news that Germany just announced increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP... good job Putin!
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Feb 27, 2022 11:33
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This is not the result of successful attacks. https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1497880683364208640?s=20&t=gtQ0Yy4M4zAA4ej0vqnS3Q This is not yet a fiasco. But it is turning into a fiasco.
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Feb 27, 2022 11:38
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