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facialimpediment posted:About all we know is that the invasion just isn't going Russia's way because they simply don't have the cities yet. Everything else is war-foggy/propaganda to some extent, but we keep seeing poo poo like this happen: I think we're also seeing a lot more of the Ukrainian militia and Territorial Defense from social media, so it gives the impression that they're the ones doing the fighting. The reality seems to be that the Ukrainian Regular forces are still very much intact, albeit without substantial armor or air support. But that seems to be less of a liability as the war moves into the cities.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:55
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Best map I've seen so far of the airspace closures - Russia is still able to fly into Kaliningrad through a narrow strip between Finland and Estonia but otherwise they're close to not being able to fly airlines west at all. I imagine Sweden / Denmark / the Benelux are holding off to give a chance for Russian airlines to get aircraft back to Russian territory before completely shutting the door. There's been a couple that have already had to divert up around the top of Norway to get around Finland. edit - spoke too soon, updated map: https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1497883024628797442?cxt=HHwWhMCy4ZerxskpAAAA
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Feb 27, 2022 14:57
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psydude posted:I think we're also seeing a lot more of the Ukrainian militia and Territorial Defense from social media, so it gives the impression that they're the ones doing the fighting. The reality seems to be that the Ukrainian Regular forces are still very much intact, albeit without substantial armor or air support. They’re ghosts. We see evidence of them and their actions, but there’s barely a single pic of any of them, anywhere. Idk how they’re doing it, but they’re drat good at it.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:57
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Icon Of Sin posted:They’re ghosts. We see evidence of them and their actions, but there’s barely a single pic of any of them, anywhere. Should start calling themselves the babayagui.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:01
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mmtt posted:https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1497922873289326595 If anyone is actually insane enough to push the big red MAD button, I figure it would be Putin. There is no way that he doesn't know that doing so would be the end of the world.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:01
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KozmoNaut posted:There is no way that he doesn't know that doing so would be the end of the world.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:03
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Liquid Communism posted:Given the number of phone cam vids we're seeing of Russian units walking around urban areas with absolutely zero cover or concealment, an AK in the right hands is a big force multiplier. >There's a big post I've refrained from doing for the sake of having to follow it up or worse. This is that post cut down< This is a video purported to be from Kharkiv https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497824591569252352?t=7ub0-tnlpy7GplYpLIMwQw&s=19 These are Russian soldiers advancing into a major city defended by regular Ukrainian army troops. These guys have -zero- idea of what they're doing. And I'm starting to believe Putin's army really did take 19y olds without any tactical instruction straight into battle. I can't explain it without these russian soldiers not knowing any better.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:03
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Feb 27, 2022 15:05
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stealie72 posted:The concern is more "does he care?" If he doesn't, his generals etc. and the Russian population should care a lot about that fact.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:06
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ThisIsJohnWayne posted:>There's a big post I've refrained from doing for the sake of having to follow it up or worse. This is that post cut down< It's like these guys watched a couple of low budget movies about the Iraq war and took all of their tactics from that.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:07
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Also, bear in mind that Macron has already called Putin's ?bluff? regarding nukes. https://twitter.com/FrenchHist/status/1497505013882515459?s=20&t=RZ6ZzYW1mqgpry-FwYeMKg
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Feb 27, 2022 15:07
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Gotta admit, with Putin talking nukes — again — Bored’s prepper posts are looking a little more relevant. Even if the sunshine doesn’t land within 1000 miles, if it happens ANYWHERE, even once, the world is gonna be crazy for a while. Kinda scary escalation because the angry old embarrassed man might just do it.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:08
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Icon Of Sin posted:They’re ghosts. We see evidence of them and their actions, but there’s barely a single pic of any of them, anywhere. My suspicion is that the UA regulars are practicing opsec re: smartphones and social media given their experiences in Donbas with Russians exploiting Ukrainian cell phones for targeting. They've learned the hard way over the past eight years that you don't run around posting Tiktoks of your sick shots when the other side has SIGINT capabilities. edit - if you want an example of what Ukrainian mud does to armored vehicles: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497885037324292098?cxt=HHwWhMCywaugx8kpAAAA Terrifying Effigies fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 15:08
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Stairmaster posted:seems premature to say russia is losing when they've been taking ground nonstop and have kiev encircled. too bad biden and the state department will never be held accountable for leaving ukraine in the wind Stairmaster posted:How do you know what level of losses the russians were expecting? They knew what lethal aid the ukrainian army was getting and nobody in their right mind would plan an airborne op without considering the highly likely outcome of it failing. If you want to participate in this thread then participate in this thread. If you want to drive by and drop off some posts and then run along, do it someplace else. Come back and respond to the people who were trying to engage with you on this or take a posting vacation.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:14
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1497937251665383426?s=20&t=Oz-fokPs5uJSpGH1vIL0vw
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Feb 27, 2022 15:16
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Terrifying Effigies posted:My suspicion is that the UA regulars are practicing opsec re: smartphones and social media given their experiences in Donbas with Russians exploiting Ukrainian cell phones for targeting. They've learned the hard way over the past eight years that you don't run around posting Tiktoks of your sick shots when the other side has SIGINT capabilities. Few of my colleagues participated in Orbital, said they took it really seriously and we're all over their skills and drills when it came to emcon.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:20
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psydude posted:It's like these guys watched a couple of low budget movies about the Iraq war and took all of their tactics from that. So they’re actually dismounted this time but goddamn are they really close together
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Feb 27, 2022 15:30
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Russians seem to be advancing steadily and all we can sorta confidently say about their losses is that it's likely less than what the Ukrainians report - not a knock on the Ukrainians, just how these kill counts work. So overall sadly the Russians still seem to be hanging in there and making progress.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:32
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aphid_licker posted:Russians seem to be advancing steadily and all we can sorta confidently say about their losses is that it's likely less than what the Ukrainians report - not a knock on the Ukrainians, just how these kill counts work. So overall sadly the Russians still seem to be hanging in there and making progress. The key thing is that while it's impossible to say what the Russian losses are, they are taking losses - and while they've made progress on many fronts, they've also failed to take any major Ukrainian cities thus far. Can Ukraine hold out forever? Probably not - but every day that goes by, the situation looks better for them and worse for Russia.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:38
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Fingers crossed!
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Feb 27, 2022 15:40
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Terrifying Effigies posted:
What’s the two at4 looking tubes on the left? Also what’s the long tube between the ak with nade launcher and rpg7
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Feb 27, 2022 15:41
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aphid_licker posted:Russians seem to be advancing steadily and all we can sorta confidently say about their losses is that it's likely less than what the Ukrainians report - not a knock on the Ukrainians, just how these kill counts work. So overall sadly the Russians still seem to be hanging in there and making progress. It looks like they really did think they would pull off a US style invasion but without a force that has the ability to do all the necessary stuff like do proper SEAD and air superiority and actually hold, support and then reinforce advanced positions.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:41
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Alan Smithee posted:What’s the two at4 looking tubes on the left? Also what’s the long tube between the ak with nade launcher and rpg7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RPG-26?wprov=sfti1 Probably this or similar it’s more or less the Russian equivalent to an AT4
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Feb 27, 2022 15:43
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:So they’re actually dismounted this time but goddamn are they really close together Well that's progress. They still just seem/look confused as hell though. That vid yesterday of a Ukrainian civilian talking to that Russian tank crew that ran out of gas: "You guys know where you are? No. Where you are going? No. why you stop? Out of fuel. " Like, Buddy those are all questions i'd really like to have answered if im an invader in a hostile land. And those guys just went eh time for a smoke break.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:48
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I know there were people earlier in this thread that said that there's not a chance in hell that this goes nuclear. I hope you're right. https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1497926329844568073
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Feb 27, 2022 15:55
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Who would they even nuke to make this problem go away. It's not a very nukable problem
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Feb 27, 2022 15:57
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I can’t imagine that Putin doesn’t end up falling out a window if the oligarchs think that becomes an actual possibility.
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Feb 27, 2022 15:59
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Nuclear Tourist posted:I know there were people earlier in this thread that said that there's not a chance in hell that this goes nuclear. I hope you're right. Sounds like when trump threatened North Korea with a fire and fury like never seen before.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:00
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aphid_licker posted:Who would they even nuke to make this problem go away. It's not a very nukable problem Every problem is nukable with enough nukes
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Feb 27, 2022 16:08
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Well, it's a good question. If Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine, what are other states going to do about it? Would you, put in the same position as Macron,Boris, or Biden go "alright boys, the response to this is full blown nuclear war, get me the brief case. It's time to actually end history"? This whole invasion legit puts to the test what the actual gently caress anyone can do if a nuclear armed states decides to play WW2 Germany.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:10
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boop the snoot posted:Sounds like when trump threatened North Korea with a fire and fury like never seen before. Putins historically has been always understating his threats and he has actual control of his own government so it’s a lot more scary imo
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Feb 27, 2022 16:10
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aphid_licker posted:Who would they even nuke to make this problem go away. It's not a very nukable problem I mean...Ukraine?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:10
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A Festivus Miracle posted:Well, it's a good question. If Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine, what are other states going to do about it? Would you, put in the same position as Macron,Boris, or Biden go "alright boys, the response to this is full blown nuclear war, get me the brief case. It's time to actually end history"? This whole invasion legit puts to the test what the actual gently caress anyone can do if a nuclear armed states decides to play WW2 Germany. 100% isolation. Basically a global embargo/blockade on Russia. Full severing from the financial system, freezing or confiscation of every Russian asset, no ground or air transport in or out.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:12
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A Festivus Miracle posted:Well, it's a good question. If Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine, what are other states going to do about it? Would you, put in the same position as Macron,Boris, or Biden go "alright boys, the response to this is full blown nuclear war, get me the brief case. It's time to actually end history"? This whole invasion legit puts to the test what the actual gently caress anyone can do if a nuclear armed states decides to play WW2 Germany. I guess launch a full scale invasion by literally everyone else on earth hoping and asking internal factions to coup and prevent a Russian first strike before full scale nukes could be launched?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:13
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If the average russian has no idea what's going on, do the oligarchs
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Feb 27, 2022 16:14
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1497950029209866241
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Feb 27, 2022 16:18
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Maybe we can get Musk to jam so many roadsters/LEO trash that any of their ICBM re-entry vehicles will just crash into them and detonate in orbit.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:19
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Duzzy Funlop posted:I mean...Ukraine? It's thin, dispersed frontlines, not a lot of great targets. You mean just take out Zelensky? Dunno if the impact on Ukrainian fighting power would be worth the domestic approval rating hit
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Feb 27, 2022 16:20
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Russia does have an off-ramp, though: it's to oust Putin. They then just have to come up with something dumb to save face while still backing out and quietly begging the west for forgiveness. The obstacles here are the guts to do it and swallowing their pride.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:21
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psydude posted:It's like these guys watched a couple of low budget movies about the Iraq war and took all of their tactics from that. I do believe you can see Bradley Cooper’s plastic baby driving one of the vehicles https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497885037324292098?cxt=HHwWhMCywaugx8kpAAAA Would the crews have dropped in thermite before abandoning those vehicles? Otherwise have assumed they’d stay with them until a tow arrives, even if Ukraine couldn’t drive them off gotta be some valuable stuff worth ransacking. Hyrax Attack! fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 16:21
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