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Nosre
Apr 16, 2002


Warad posted:

There was another one like this a day or two ago featuring what looked like a Spetsnaz (at least judging from the fact he was carrying a suppressed AK) that was even more terrifying, don't have it on hand though.

https://twitter.com/peedutuisk/status/1497310882069581824 maybe?

The guy's smile is the most terrifying of all

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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

OddObserver posted:

Probably worth pointing out that this sort of language is hardly new for them.
Meaning this unhinged spiel is old hat and has been around at least a decade and the war hasn't changed that?

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

steinrokkan posted:

One of the downed IL-76

Has this still not been confirmed btw?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

The exchange can prohibit specific sell orders at the cost of any kind of credibility going forward.

Of course, the "credibility going forward" ship has already sailed around the world and crashed on some rocks.

Yeah I meant the latter, I should’ve expressed myself clearer in the post - this is me saying that such flailing won’t save them even for a week.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Grouchio posted:

Meaning this unhinged spiel is old hat and has been around at least a decade and the war hasn't changed that?

Yes, Kiselyov has always been like Alex Jones overdosing on MDMA

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

TheRat posted:

Has this still not been confirmed btw?

There were some tweets I saw later by Americans on confirming it. Which as good as you are going to get for a while.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Grouchio posted:

Meaning this unhinged spiel is old hat and has been around at least a decade and the war hasn't changed that?

With an asterisk --- same guy in 2014: "Russia can turn US to radioactive ash"
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukr...N0MD0P920140316

So it's very loosely connected to the current conflict.

Warad
Aug 10, 2019



Nosre posted:

https://twitter.com/peedutuisk/status/1497310882069581824 maybe?

The guy's smile is the most terrifying of all

Yeah that's the one.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
Interesting thread about the changes in Russian and Ukrainian armies over the years.

Xerxes17
Feb 17, 2011

Raenir Salazar posted:

Looking back but it seems like maybe Russia trying to hold onto its sphere of influence in the aftermath of the cold war was a huge mistake. If they hadn't attempted to take Crimea and instead negotiated with the more liberal government in good faith (afterall the Sevastopol naval base wasn't under any kind of immediate threat of being repatriated back to Ukraine); they could've made partnerships with Ukraine to improve their military modernization with access to skilled Ukrainian firms.

If they had instead focused on improving their quality of life, fighting corruption, and improving their economy; and treated the FSU states with respect; they wouldn't be in this position and could've been improving and developing peacefully.

This would require gay black Putin, not our regular one.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Nosre posted:

https://twitter.com/peedutuisk/status/1497310882069581824 maybe?

The guy's smile is the most terrifying of all



Face of a man eagerly waiting to do… things

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Yeah I meant the latter, I should’ve expressed myself clearer in the post - this is me saying that such flailing won’t save them even for a week.

They might as well try, all of the potential tit-for-tat consequences have already been put in place earlier via sanctions. Granted, it won't actually achieve anything incremental except maybe damaging the exchange's credibility in the eyes of its domestic customers, but whatever. Plus, you'd figure that a bunch of oligarchs would be looking to pick up pieces of various Russian enterprises on sale. Maybe they should let the orders go through?

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound


https://twitter.com/earlyamhistory/status/1498024833329807373?t=A9vy4MfdptKog-u_bHysMA&s=19

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

FishBulbia posted:

map just updated



Jesus, I'm used to seeing maps like this in WW2 documentaries but now it's loving terrifying

Tim Whatley
Mar 28, 2010


Paddington 3 gonna have 100% more hardbass

Vietnom nom nom
Oct 24, 2000
Forum Veteran

downout posted:

That kind of makes sense, in so far as russia can just print as much rubles as needed/wanted. I'd think a run would be more on trying to acquire currencies other than rubles to avoid loss of value.

Yes. Stocking ATM's with rubles won't be a problem, converting those rubles to something else will be. Russia has some foreign reserves (they've been running budget surpluses due to higher oil & gas prices), and they've been increasing their holdings of gold since the Crimean crisis in an attempt to reduce their reliance on foreign reserves. But the foreign reserves they do have are partially frozen by sanctions, and gold is logistically hard to convert quickly.

They can probably buy some time with what they have, so the bite may not be immediate, but look to see if foreign currency controls come into play (they start banning citizens from holding/exchanging for foreign currencies). The clock is ticking at this point.

That said, they do have an underlying defense for the currency, which is as usual oil & gas. The basic math of the situation hasn't changed. Russia has a bunch of oil & gas backstopping their currency, and Europe still needs it, and the markets know it. The dramatic nature of the current sanctions actually belies their ultimately temporary nature, this isn't an acceptable equilibrium for either side. It's simply a matter of how long all this lasts.

Stabbey_the_Clown
Sep 21, 2002

Are... are you quite sure you really want to say that?
Taco Defender
I've seen posts from people speculating that the part of the Ukranian Army which is entrenched on the front lines of the separatist regions is at risk of being cut off by the Russian forces encircling from the north and south. Is that just going to be stuck there until lack of supplies force a surrender, or is there any reasonable chance that they can withdraw safely? I'm guessing no, due to a risk of artillery fire from the separatist regions and airstrikes from Russia, but I'm just guessing.

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.
https://twitter.com/gerrycanavan/status/1498063354375647235

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Raenir Salazar posted:

Looking back but it seems like maybe Russia trying to hold onto its sphere of influence in the aftermath of the cold war was a huge mistake. If they hadn't attempted to take Crimea and instead negotiated with the more liberal government in good faith (afterall the Sevastopol naval base wasn't under any kind of immediate threat of being repatriated back to Ukraine); they could've made partnerships with Ukraine to improve their military modernization with access to skilled Ukrainian firms.

IMO one of the turborealist facts that turborealist Putin forgot was that a sphere of influence exists as a result of being a great or major regional power. Striving for a sphere of influence (or striving to maintain a deteriorating sphere of influence) does not make you a great or regional power.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


we watch paddington tonight in solidarity with ukraine.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Japan Abe openly asks US for clarity on if they will protect Taiwan, wants to discuss nuclear sharing issues.

Swiss leave the eternally neutral gnomic mines.

Russia-fearing Germans reject their pacific vows and provide lethal weapons.

Not much happens over a weekend you say?

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

steinrokkan posted:

There were some tweets I saw later by Americans on confirming it. Which as good as you are going to get for a while.

There were also tweets from american authorities saying it was not confirmed

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Mokotow posted:



Face of a man eagerly waiting to do… things

looks like I have a new av possibility if I ever get tired of my selfies

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

we watch paddington tonight in solidarity with ukraine.

Ukrainian Paddington is hardcore.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Stabbey_the_Clown posted:

I've seen posts from people speculating that the part of the Ukranian Army which is entrenched on the front lines of the separatist regions is at risk of being cut off by the Russian forces encircling from the north and south. Is that just going to be stuck there until lack of supplies force a surrender, or is there any reasonable chance that they can withdraw safely? I'm guessing no, due to a risk of artillery fire from the separatist regions and airstrikes from Russia, but I'm just guessing.

Ukrainian planners are absolutely aware that Kharkiv-Kherson axis are meant to encircle Donbas frontline. It’ll remain to be seen how they’ve chosen to navigate that.

tracecomplete
Feb 26, 2017

ZombieLenin posted:

I am not terribly surprised, like I was saying earlier it’s a matter of pilots more than aircraft; and there is nothing seeing like a nuclear armed fascist state and a resurgent NATO to change your priorities about where that old Soviet tech can go if it’s useful.

"Hi, Poland? Can we hurry along your NATOization a little? How about we swap some F-16s for those old MiGs? And you've got an option for another sixteen F-35s, how 'bout we just lose the invoice..."

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Mokotow posted:



Face of a man eagerly waiting to do… things

"It was me, Vlad - the author of all your pain!"

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498065453729685505

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Small White Dragon posted:

I think I asked this before, but how much power does the Duma actually have?

Constitutionally, actually quite a lot. The reason they can't use it is that if they vote wrong, they fall off a balcony.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Some people just hate democracy.

1337JiveTurkey
Feb 17, 2005

Stabbey_the_Clown posted:

I've seen posts from people speculating that the part of the Ukranian Army which is entrenched on the front lines of the separatist regions is at risk of being cut off by the Russian forces encircling from the north and south. Is that just going to be stuck there until lack of supplies force a surrender, or is there any reasonable chance that they can withdraw safely? I'm guessing no, due to a risk of artillery fire from the separatist regions and airstrikes from Russia, but I'm just guessing.

Withdrawing in order to the Dnieper river is almost certainly one of the things that the Ukrainian military has planned for, keeping up some sort of fight along the way. Hiding Javelins, rockets and the like in prepared locations gives the possibility for stay behind troops to wreak havoc on the Russian supply lines. Just sitting there and letting their units get surrounded and wiped out is possible but really doesn't fit with what they've accomplished so far.

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



cinci zoo sniper posted:

Ukrainian planners are absolutely aware that Kharkiv-Kherson axis are meant to encircle Donbas frontline. It’ll remain to be seen how they’ve chosen to navigate that.

Amazing how many rounds will fit in the back of a few Toyotas. Also cool: how many backroads are in ukraine the big tough russian vehicles can’t use

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
The Paddington thing is super-confirmed btw. He's got a great voice in both Russian and Ukrainian here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vlb4z9ge5E

Vietnom nom nom posted:

Yes. Stocking ATM's with rubles won't be a problem, converting those rubles to something else will be. Russia has some foreign reserves (they've been running budget surpluses due to higher oil & gas prices), and they've been increasing their holdings of gold since the Crimean crisis in an attempt to reduce their reliance on foreign reserves. But the foreign reserves they do have are partially frozen by sanctions, and gold is logistically hard to convert quickly.

They can probably buy some time with what they have, so the bite may not be immediate, but look to see if foreign currency controls come into play (they start banning citizens from holding/exchanging for foreign currencies). The clock is ticking at this point.

That said, they do have an underlying defense for the currency, which is as usual oil & gas. The basic math of the situation hasn't changed. Russia has a bunch of oil & gas backstopping their currency, and Europe still needs it, and the markets know it. The dramatic nature of the current sanctions actually belies their ultimately temporary nature, this isn't an acceptable equilibrium for either side. It's simply a matter of how long all this lasts.

Unfortunately I'm sure they calculated that they're ok with all the sanctions so far, it's really only oil & gas that might get them to blink.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

ethanol posted:

Amazing how many rounds will fit in the back of a few Toyotas. Also cool: how many backroads are in ukraine the big tough russian vehicles can’t use

I feel, even if the RUssians were currently ddriving forward to connect the southern and northern forces, to what extent would it just be two convoys driving along a highway with absolutely no effort to create an actual encirclement

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Tuna-Fish posted:

Constitutionally, actually quite a lot. The reason they can't use it is that if they vote wrong, they fall off a balcony.

they have a similar de jure and de facto level of power as the queen of England

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

Mokotow posted:



Face of a man eagerly waiting to do… things

Get out of here, Stalker.

Warad
Aug 10, 2019



mobby_6kl posted:

Unfortunately I'm sure they calculated that they're ok with all the sanctions so far, it's really only oil & gas that might get them to blink.

Perhaps not so much oil, since it seems MBS is sticking to his side. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498060310959243269

CelestialScribe
Jan 16, 2008
I know I'm not allowed to post in DND but I saw the news about Russia putting nuclear forces on alert. Is this just bullshit or is he actually doing something serious here?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

CelestialScribe posted:

I know I'm not allowed to post in DND but I saw the news about Russia putting nuclear forces on alert. Is this just bullshit or is he actually doing something serious here?

They changed to the second lowest emergency level.

From "unbothered" to "slightly perturbed"

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punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

CelestialScribe posted:

I know I'm not allowed to post in DND but I saw the news about Russia putting nuclear forces on alert. Is this just bullshit or is he actually doing something serious here?

just a bear rattling the cage it has built

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