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They could have continued the slow burn of increasing dependency on gas and financing the far right, with a possibility of a soft power de facto takeover of most European politics. But honestly I think that was just too slow for Putin and the legacy he wants to leave behind.
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Feb 28, 2022 12:36
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No. 1 Callie Fan posted:Who knows what Putin was actually thinking when he decided to invade Ukraine – if at all – but it's been clear for decades that Russia sees Ukraine as their backyard. You say NATO has nothing to do with it, but that's not how the Russians are seeing it, but I guess they'll change their minds if you pop into Moscow and call them morons in thinking so. A proportionate and understandable response to the EU trying to get Ukraine into its sphere of influence was for Russia to hike up gas prices, trying to sabotage our diplomatic relationships, and so on. Rolling tanks into Ukraine and starting shelling cities is on a completely different level and enters a completely different set of rules. That escalation is solely on Putin's head. Does anybody believe that if Ukraine had joined NATO, Western powers would have sent Leopards and Abrams rolling into St. Petersburg?
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Feb 28, 2022 12:37
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KozmoNaut posted:They could have continued the slow burn of increasing dependency on gas and financing the far right, with a possibility of a soft power de facto takeover of most European politics.
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Feb 28, 2022 12:38
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NihilCredo posted:Does anybody believe that if Ukraine had joined NATO, Western powers would have sent Leopards and Abrams rolling into St. Petersburg? St. Petersburg? Moscow is so much closer to the Ukraine border.
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Feb 28, 2022 12:49
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Haramstufe Rot posted:love the implied "all Germans are, and always will be, Nazis", but fear not - there is no chance Germany will actually end up with a working army I certainly don't think all Germans are Nazis, but Germany does have a historical legacy also without Nazis using their armed forces for naughty things. I guess the same is true of France too, but 80 years of US propaganda about "surrender frogs" has probably diminished that image. Of course there's also the stereotype that Germans just love order, armies and whatnot, but well Europe is full of quaint little racist stereotypes like this. But either way, if the EU wants to have a unified foreign policy (this sometimes works, sometimes not), it would also make more sense to have some kind of "EU army" to fill the other side of that coin. Everyone knows this is unlikely, even if smaller members like Finland have tried to push for a more unified defense system for reasons people can guess. And if there were the political will to attempt this, there's still a lot of practical issues, since not every EU member is in NATO (yet!), what would the command structure look like (what language should an EU military speak amongst themselves? Ironically many native English speakers are no longer in the EU!), which political actor gets to decide armed forces policy, the Commission?, etc. Just having Germany by itself boosting military spending seems to add possible divisions with Europe, not reduce them, since the politics of individual EU states are disparate and our rising European right, with or without ruble backing, seems problematic from this point of view too.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:10
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No. 1 Callie Fan posted:St. Petersburg? Moscow is so much closer to the Ukraine border. Piter is much closer to the NATO border (Estonia, and possibly Finland soon).
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Feb 28, 2022 13:13
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Knightsoul posted:This war started in 2008 at the bucharest convention when NATO trespassed the red line declaring Ukraine and Georgia as next members.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:15
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Knightsoul posted:This war started in 2008 at the bucharest convention when NATO trespassed the red line declaring Ukraine and Georgia as next members. Because god forbid Eastern European countries feel threatened by hundreds of years of Russian aggression and occupation, and try to join an organization that exists explicitly as defense against her. But no, we must allow Russia to bully her neighbors, or else there’s nobody to blame but us - certainly not Russia!
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Feb 28, 2022 13:21
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This war began when Russia invaded Ukraine, but also when Yeltsin and Putin weren't sent to the gulags back in the 90's, so it's really the communists fault. But they weren't sent to the gulags because the ghouls of the Chicago school had their backs so really it's americas fault for rebuilding Chicago, or better yet, the British monarchy for not killing everyone back in 1776.and if you really think about it's really the first nations fault for having such virgin immune systems and not killing every settler in the americas.long story short it was a bad idea to come out of the oceans really. This is a war that has a lot of midwife's and even more dead. .
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Feb 28, 2022 13:34
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Antifa Poltergeist posted:This war began when Russia invaded Ukraine, but also when Yeltsin and Putin weren't sent to the gulags back in the 90's, so it's really the communists fault. I don't know what the title will be, but I do know what the next Best Seller history non-fiction book is gonna be about.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:39
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Haramstufe Rot posted:love the implied "all Germans are, and always will be, Nazis", but fear not - there is no chance Germany will actually end up with a working army https://www.dw.com/en/bundeswehr-remains-under-fire-for-far-right-extremism/a-56964218 
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Feb 28, 2022 13:51
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So did von der Leyen really say the EU wants Ukraine as a member? How serious should we take that? They won't be admitted as long as there's still war raging in the country, and one condition of membership is resolving all outstanding territorial disputes, which I can't believe is possible for Ukraine even in the (for Russia) worst case. They have zero ability to push the Russians out of the separatist regions in the East, or ousting them from Crimea. And Ukraine will hardly agree to give up their claims to these areas.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:53
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Torrannor posted:So did von der Leyen really say the EU wants Ukraine as a member? How serious should we take that? They won't be admitted as long as there's still war raging in the country, and one condition of membership is resolving all outstanding territorial disputes, which I can't believe is possible for Ukraine even in the (for Russia) worst case. They have zero ability to push the Russians out of the separatist regions in the East, or ousting them from Crimea. And Ukraine will hardly agree to give up their claims to these areas. Candidacy status already comes with privileges and funds. They are not becoming a full voting member, but they can still benefit from substantial EU integration.
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Feb 28, 2022 13:57
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We seem to have reached a time where established rules have proven to be surprisingly malleable (due to sudden unprecedented consensus, not some conspiracy, mind).
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Feb 28, 2022 14:04
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Crimea staying Russian seems the most tolerable concession for Putin to save face. It's been under Ukraine only for a relatively short amount of time: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_transfer_of_Crimea So, unless the article above is full of bullshit, the situation is that a historically Russian region was peacefully transferred to Ukraine by the USSR, peacefully acknowledged as Ukrainian by Russia 20 years ago, and then forcefully annexed back by pure might makes right. Under ideal conditions a referendum with neutral observers could be undertaken, Crimeans would likely vote for Russia although not with 95% majority or whatever, and both sides could save face. But, and I hope I am not being too dramatic here, we are not quite operating under ideal conditions.
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Feb 28, 2022 14:05
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Rappaport posted:I certainly don't think all Germans are Nazis, but Germany does have a historical legacy also without Nazis using their armed forces for naughty things. I guess the same is true of France too, but 80 years of US propaganda about "surrender frogs" has probably diminished that image. Of course there's also the stereotype that Germans just love order, armies and whatnot, but well Europe is full of quaint little racist stereotypes like this. If you listen to Scholz’s speech yesterday he said the 100 billion € are to a large extent intended to be used for EU military cooperation.
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Feb 28, 2022 14:08
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There's a comedy option for a compromise where Russia keeps the "independent" separatist regions "independent", while Ukraine gets EU accession status. It gives Russia a "win", but a severely poisoned one. I say comedy option because I do not consider it realistic at all, but it would be extremely Brexit-y.
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Feb 28, 2022 14:13
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Antigravitas posted:There's a comedy option for a compromise where Russia keeps the "independent" separatist regions "independent", while Ukraine gets EU accession status. It gives Russia a "win", but a severely poisoned one. At this point I don't even think that is enough to get a 'win' out of this with the damage economically and geopolitically to both Russia and their image. The win is long gone. He could take Ukraine and it'd still be devastating for Russia's image. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 14:27
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CommieGIR posted:At this point I don't even think that is enough to get a 'win' out of this with the damage economically and geopolitically to both Russia and their image. The win is long gone. He could take Ukraine and it'd still be devastating for Russia's image. There just doesn't seem to be any winning scenario for Putin left, including any that would amount to miracles. At this point, even if Ukraine were to deploy some WMD of any kind, which is realistically the best possible thing that could happen for Putin, everyone and their uncle would assume that it's a false-flag.
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Feb 28, 2022 14:42
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NihilCredo posted:Rolling tanks into Ukraine and starting shelling cities is on a completely different level and enters a completely different set of rules. That escalation is solely on Putin's head. Does anybody believe that if Ukraine had joined NATO, Western powers would have sent Leopards and Abrams rolling into St. Petersburg? This escalation makes it 100% obvious that Russia doesn't and didn't fear NATO aggression at all, because if he actually believed NATO to be an aggressive expansionary force, what better excuse for going to war against Russia than launching a literal quest for lebensraum?
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Feb 28, 2022 15:03
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Fame Douglas posted:You might want to check your timeline: Russia started this war.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:48
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Toplowtech posted:They did invade a country after repeatably telling us they would invade if we were dumb enough to continue our NATO bullshit. I guess we are safe from blame. gently caress, the US actually are the greatest negotiator ever: they even spend weeks telling everyone that the Russian were going to attack(believe us please!!!) while doing jack loving poo poo to protect the population. Honestly, sure Putin is the villain but everyone else is a loving idiot. Can we stop being loving idiot? I’m missing the explanation for why anyone would give a flying gently caress about what Putin wants? “Oh no, Putin is angry about not being able to bully yet another sovereign country, let’s acquiesce to his whims” Me threatening you with a good time unless you comply with my wishes doesn’t make me punching you in the face for not complying less of a crime.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:56
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Toplowtech posted:They did invade a country after repeatably telling us they would invade if we were dumb enough to continue our NATO bullshit. I guess we are safe from blame. gently caress, the US actually are the greatest negotiator ever: they even spend weeks telling everyone that the Russian were going to attack(believe us please!!!) while doing jack loving poo poo to protect the population. Honestly, sure Putin is the villain but everyone else is a loving idiot. Can we stop being loving idiot? It's incredible there are still people both shameless and stupid enough to post this at this point in time. This is a set of bald faced lies.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:02
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morothar posted:I’m missing the explanation for why anyone would give a flying gently caress about what Putin wants? “Oh no, Putin is angry about not being able to bully yet another sovereign country, let’s acquiesce to his whims”
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Feb 28, 2022 16:06
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Fame Douglas posted:This escalation makes it 100% obvious that Russia doesn't and didn't fear NATO aggression at all, because if he actually believed NATO to be an aggressive expansionary force, what better excuse for going to war against Russia than launching a literal quest for lebensraum? Just look at Belarus for what a "neutral" Ukraine would have looked like. Batka genuinely tried to stay stay neutral and play both Europe and Russia. He wasn't a danger to Russia nor did he have any aspirations of joining NATO and still Putin took over Belarus without any hesitation. This was never really about NATO but about empire building.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:09
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GABA ghoul posted:Just look at Belarus for what a "neutral" Ukraine would have looked like. Batka genuinely tried to stay stay neutral and play both Europe and Russia. He wasn't a danger to Russia nor did he have any aspirations of joining NATO and still Putin took over Belarus without any hesitation. This was never really about NATO but about empire building. Yeah, that Feb 26 pre-planned article indicated he wasn't looking for a 'reasonable' solution, but for Ukraine "Little Russia" to be Belarus 2.0, all the authority of ruling over it, but dumping off a bunch of costs to a local stooge.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:12
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Antigravitas posted:We seem to have reached a time where established rules have proven to be surprisingly malleable (due to sudden unprecedented consensus, not some conspiracy, mind). I hope you're right, because in that case It would mean human kind has entered a new phase of its evolution where men stops their fights for power. Now would you prefer to talk about fairytales where the two of us hugs pretty unicorns while watching the beautiful rainbow in the sky? Or how surprisingly malleable human flesh is after being exposed to nuclear radiations of a nuclear bomb? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2022 16:23
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Toplowtech posted:WAAAAAAA America so tough. Told insane hostage taker Vladmir to fuckoff. Now Ukraine is on the floor, its head blown off and Vladimir gonna get shot. Hope he doesn't shot someone else while the Biden administration does its best not to appear weak. I’m sure you have a much better course of action to suggest
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Feb 28, 2022 16:31
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Knightsoul posted:I hope you're right, because in that case It would mean human kind has entered a new phase of its evolution where men stops their fights for power. Are you drunk?
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Feb 28, 2022 16:40
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That's your brain on rational neorealist realpolitiks
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Feb 28, 2022 16:48
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There was a brief moment on Sunday where Luxembourg had its airspace open to Russian flights and nowhere else in the EU, and someone joked about Russian planes in the sky there. It actually ended up happening, there was a private Russian jet that got trapped and was doing loops in the Luxembourg airspace yesterday  Presumably it landed back in Luxembourg City ( found here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Luxembourg/comments/t2u45a/russian_private_jet_cant_leave/ ) I just read the thread, apparently it landed in Luxembourg City, then got some special authorization and took off again and got to Moscow. The second picture in the thread showing its flight pattern is lol though. E: Might have been posted in the Politically Loaded Maps thread now that I think about it. Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 16:51
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Rules only ever matter as long as someone enforces them. This seems basic, but it seems like so many people fail to grasp it.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:13
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morothar posted:I’m missing the explanation for why anyone would give a flying gently caress about what Putin wants? “Oh no, Putin is angry about not being able to bully yet another sovereign country, let’s acquiesce to his whims” Every state has red lines and it is either willfully ignorant or just plain naive to believe that crossing such a red line wouldn't have consequences. This is not some attempt justify why putin/russia decided on this aggressive and destructive course of action, but purely an attempt to understand why. If you back your geopolitical opponent into a corner, and leave no room for a negations or a way out, they will at some point decide to escalate. This is difficult, if not impossible to understand according to the liberal mindset that equivocates the moral right with the epistemic true, but that's what happened the last few months. The US and NATO used Ukraine as useful pawn in their struggle with Russia and now untold Ukrainians and Russians are suffering.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:36
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The Ukrainians decided that they'd rather fight than become a cog in Vlads grand vision of a lovely USSR 2.0 and it's hard to blame them after his and batkas shenanigans of late.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:40
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oscarthewilde posted:Every state has red lines and it is either willfully ignorant or just plain naive to believe that crossing such a red line wouldn't have consequences. This is not some attempt justify why putin/russia decided on this aggressive and destructive course of action, but purely an attempt to understand why. If you back your geopolitical opponent into a corner, and leave no room for a negations or a way out, they will at some point decide to escalate. This is difficult, if not impossible to understand according to the liberal mindset that equivocates the moral right with the epistemic true, but that's what happened the last few months. The US and NATO used Ukraine as useful pawn in their struggle with Russia and now untold Ukrainians and Russians are suffering. The why is clear: Putin was huffing his own farts as dictators are wont to do, and decided that this was his best chance to make history and prevent Ukraine from falling into the sphere of Western influence. Doesn’t mean there was a better path. It also doesn’t mean Ukraine did not have agency. Ultimately, there’s no dealing with a bully, except to give them a bloody nose when they attack.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:42
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oscarthewilde posted:Every state has red lines and it is either willfully ignorant or just plain naive to believe that crossing such a red line wouldn't have consequences. This is not some attempt justify why putin/russia decided on this aggressive and destructive course of action, but purely an attempt to understand why. If you back your geopolitical opponent into a corner, and leave no room for a negations or a way out, they will at some point decide to escalate. This is difficult, if not impossible to understand according to the liberal mindset that equivocates the moral right with the epistemic true, but that's what happened the last few months. The US and NATO used Ukraine as useful pawn in their struggle with Russia and now untold Ukrainians and Russians are suffering.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:46
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true.spoon posted:Has it occured to you that a big invasion in Europe might have been a red line for the EU and the US? As far as cynical geopolitical calculus goes this looks to have been a really bad call by Putin. if a big invasion in Europe were a red line, the US shouldn't have been pushing for one. The responsibility for the actual invasion lies entirely with Putin, but the US and NATO could've chosen a different path.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:52
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oscarthewilde posted:if a big invasion in Europe were a red line, the US shouldn't have been pushing for one. The responsibility for the actual invasion lies entirely with Putin, but the US and NATO could've chosen a different path. Which path could they have chosen that also takes the agency of the EEU countries into account?
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Feb 28, 2022 17:56
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oscarthewilde posted:if a big invasion in Europe were a red line, the US shouldn't have been pushing for one. The responsibility for the actual invasion lies entirely with Putin, but the US and NATO could've chosen a different path.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:17
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true.spoon posted:If we view the world through a cynical geopolitical lense then getting Russia to invade Ukraine is actually amazing for the US, NATO and the EU (that disregards Ukraine suffering of course but that seems to be a given in cynical geopolitical discourse). So isn't pushing for it exactly what they should have done if we use this world view consistently? I do not actually believe that that was the calculus used, but rather it was believed that Putin couldn't possibly be stupid enough to do this (for reference check the comments in the weeks leading up to the invasion). In any case, mixing up the Realpolitik and moral calculus, especially in an asymmetrical way, makes for a pretty poor argument.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:38
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