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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498318991328169990 How do you gently caress up so badly that even Switzerland picks a side?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:11
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TwoQuestions posted:Sorry if this was already posted, but here's a good description on what happened up until Sunday. Looks like Ukraine's doing good, but Russia hasn't put their main units in the fight yet, and the worst is yet to come. Honest question: where are these "magical elite troops"? Wouldn't they have appeared by the deadline Putin gave today for Kharkiv or Kyiv? What do they eat? How are they payed? How do they get there? TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 18:11
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Saladman posted:Welcome a huge, poor, and dysfunctional country into the EU? At high speed? And one currently at war with Russia? Approximately a negative one billion percent chance. Ukraine has immense natural gas reserves that EU needs. It’s not out if the question at some point.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:13
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Everything about today's Guardian headline is wonderful: Putin "willing to consider" halting attacks on civilians, says France.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:13
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https://twitter.com/ua_parliament/status/1498344414112100355 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498344191532937224
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Feb 28, 2022 18:15
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SlurredSpeech609 posted:… … I mean, that’s an interesting question. On its face, my first reaction is: If Russian didn’t actually have viable nukes, or vastly exaggerates their arsenal, the US/West intelligence would know this. And I would expect they’d make that widely public knowledge specifically to blunt that specific psychological weapon. Also are you aware of the last 70 years of Cold War arms race and nuclear weapons tests.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:15
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the popes toes posted:Everything about today's Guardian headline is wonderful: Putin "willing to consider" halting attacks on civilians, says France. How big of him.  In the meantime, things are going to get ugly in Kyiv: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498345781425811458 e: sort of beaten, but still, yikes. 
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Feb 28, 2022 18:16
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KitConstantine posted:This is from Reuters, so it's legit. energy is the only thing unsanctioned from russia and will probably continue to be unsanctioned. its just that anything russian right now is unacceptably risky. Might as well take your money to the casino and at least get your drinks comped
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Feb 28, 2022 18:17
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Red posted:https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1498332884121399307 This video fascinates me. It's a perfect propaganda piece. However, It's just so on the nose in organically tickling my lifelong media-trained Eastern-European stereotypes that I'm having a tough time believing someone cynically made it that way on purpose.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:17
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3D Megadoodoo posted:Putin will end his days with a cushy post at the IOC or FIFA or something, regardless of what happens. Switzerland just sanctioned him personally, so unlikely.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:18
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TulliusCicero posted:Honest question: where are these "magical elite troops"? Today is also the last day the Russia chairs the security council. Seems withe that and the negotiations happening they probably would have shown up by now. It would make sense about all those Monday deadline to take kyiv or Kharkiv as well. Also are all these troops just sleeping in their vehicles? That's gotta suck.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:18
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madmatt112 posted:… I mean, that’s an interesting question. On its face, my first reaction is: Hasn't there been a fuckton of fairly public, bi-lateral nuke inspection over the years?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:18
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Youth Decay posted:Horses are better at moving through mud than tanks and trucks. The Polish cavalry shall have its revenge! Finland will send 20k pairs of skis to Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjq9GOtc4J8
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Feb 28, 2022 18:18
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Majorian posted:Yeah, replacing Zelensky with a puppet would pretty much make the treaty not worth the paper it’s written on. I hope Ukraine gets “Minsk II plus legally binding neutrality,” and I hope Putin accepts that. Those are terms all sides can easily spin as a victory for themselves. I'm not too familiar with the Minsk Agreements, but isn't the Russian interpretation that Ukraine would federalize into a bunch of autonomous oblasts, effectively splitting Ulraine into a bunch of tiny statelets that could be played off one another? Like the U.S. scrapping the constitution and going back to the articles of confederation? What happens if Russia determines that the formerly neutral Ukraine is once again being led by drug addicted Nazis?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:18
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The regular old RPG-7 can penetrate inches of rolled steel armor. Much greater piercing power than a .50. point stands, just wanted to mention this because movies and games gave a lot of people the idea that they aren't serious anti armor weapons.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:18
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Captain Beans posted:Ukraine has immense natural gas reserves that EU needs. It’s not out if the question at some point. Being a EU member won't mean these gas reserves become available for a cheaper price or something. You don't get "first access" to resources in EU countries.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:18
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It's so surreal seeing the missiles go through the clouds https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498345689222422528
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Feb 28, 2022 18:19
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Aramis posted:This video fascinates me. yeah this lady has 4M tiktok followers and > 1 million on youtube in some kind of 'hot lady mechanic' niche -- smart of the Ukraine propagandist types to let people like her do their thing with a little captured gear
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Feb 28, 2022 18:19
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madmatt112 posted:As we’ve seen with countries like Greece, member states of the EU can have outsized impacts on the stability and efficiency/efficacy of the EU’s raison d’être. With a new, dangerous, volatile Russian problem rearing its head, the EU is not going to rush Ukrainian membership because of their significant shortfall of EU membership requirements. The EU does not want to risk destabilization right as the largest threat to its existence begins hot wars. You are of course correct on those points, and I don't think membership status is at all a near-term thing. Beginning the process of accession is however a thing that I think would be very easy to build a quick consensus around. Provided an intact Ukraine remains. I find it hard to predict what the EU is going to do because so many long-standing policies just went up in smoke. There seems to be the unusual ability to quickly come to a consensus on issues that I would've expected to take weeks of negotiation.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:19
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Aramis posted:This video fascinates me. Watching it feels like the trailer to the new adventures of Yelena Belova, as played by Florence Pugh. It's a real mindfuck.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:20
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Aramis posted:Cookie-cutter clean-shaven business men in suits (with matching ties!) being an ideal representation of "culture" and "tradition of statehood" is some They should have put on their finest Adidas three stripe suits. 
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Feb 28, 2022 18:21
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Majorian posted:France and Germany will keep vetoing Ukraine's accession until it gives up. It would probably be best to make it official that Ukraine isn't going to join NATO. Since you ignored the question last time I asked, I'll ask again: who thinks it best? You? Who is we, us, ours to you?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:23
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madmatt112 posted:As we’ve seen with countries like Greece, member states of the EU can have outsized impacts on the stability and efficiency/efficacy of the EU’s raison d’être. With a new, dangerous, volatile Russian problem rearing its head, the EU is not going to rush Ukrainian membership because of their significant shortfall of EU membership requirements. The EU does not want to risk destabilization right as the largest threat to its existence begins hot wars. There's no avoiding destabilisation now, there's a war going on. Millions of refugees are on the move. Even from a (to simplify a bit) "Europeans are all racist bureaucrats" perspective, slow-walking a Ukrainian membership doesn't help. The EU needs the war to end, in Ukraine's favour, and massive reinvestment and reconstruction to begin or the existing destabilisation is going to get much worse. Ukraine continuing to exist as a Russian puppet state outside the EU would mean another endless humanitarian disaster of a sort the bloc has a terrible history of managing.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:23
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NomChompsky posted:The shelling in Kharkiv is horrible. A close friend of mine was born there and her maternal grandmother lives just outside the city. This is probably the perfect way for NATO countries to imbed the odd undercover spec op around Ukraine, masquerading as just a foreign civilian who wants to lend their support, to help with partisan actions, tactical advice, recon etc. Though I'm sure that's already going on.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:23
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Red posted:https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1498332884121399307 I'm going to start saying SCHWOZA WOAHZA anytime things go right
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Feb 28, 2022 18:23
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BigRoman posted:I'm not too familiar with the Minsk Agreements, but isn't the Russian interpretation that Ukraine would federalize into a bunch of autonomous oblasts, effectively splitting Ulraine into a bunch of tiny statelets that could be played off one another? Like the U.S. scrapping the constitution and going back to the articles of confederation? It's a bad state of affairs for Ukraine, no question. I just think that looks like, out of the range of likely outcomes for this war, that's probably going to be the best one for Ukraine. As admirably and bravely as they're fighting so far, I don't see them actually winning this thing outright. There's going to have to be a negotiated peace. I could be wrong, and I'd like to be wrong - I'd love it if Ukraine beat the Russians so hard that they don't have to fear Moscow again for the foreseeable future. But I don't think that's going to happen.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:24
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We are such a terrible loving species.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:26
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Majorian posted:Truss' finest moment will always be right before this war, when Lavrov asked her if the UK recognized Russia's sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh. She said "We will never recognize it!" Which was odd, because those two regions have been part of Russia for centuries. Not the cheese thing?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:27
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Majorian posted:As admirably and bravely as they're fighting so far, I don't see them actually winning this thing outright. There's going to have to be a negotiated peace.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:27
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYD9xu92zSg Recent footage from the MOEX.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:28
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madeintaipei posted:Since you ignored the question last time I asked, I'll ask again: who thinks it best? You? Sorry, I didn't mean to ignore you the first time, I just missed your post. Yes, I am just giving my opinion on the matter. It's one I share with some experts in the field, but all I have to give on that matter is my personal opinion. SlurredSpeech609 posted:How do you negotiate with a mad man though? That what got us into this mess in the first place. Idk what the answer is but I'm pretty sure it's not appeasement. I don't think he's a mad man. I think he's an ambitious, cynical turd, who made a big gamble on this war ending quickly and it blew up in his face. It happens occasionally in geopolitics. Now, whether or not he'll ever be open to reasonable negotiations is undetermined at this point, but it's important to keep trying. Otherwise, I don't like Ukraine's chances in the conventional end of this war, and while they may force the Russians out through an insurgency, that's still a pretty ugly outcome for most Ukrainians. I don't think reaching a negotiated peace would be "appeasement" at this point; Russia's losing out on this war no matter what happens. I just don't want Ukraine to lose out even more. Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 18:28
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Finally catching up with the thread.Hieronymous Alloy posted:Recognition of Crimea, a guarantee of neutrality (not joining NATO or the EU officially) seem like things that maybe could be agreed to They will definitely not agree to blank cheque neutrality. Crimea's recognition is very unlikely as well, and I could only see it being speculatively used where the trade is Crimea vs Donbass + EU. small butter posted:Is it accurate to say that this war is no longer just Russia vs Ukraine but Russia, Belarus, and Chechnya vs Ukraine? If so, what would stop EU countries (or even America) from engaging directly with non-Russian forces? Belarus and Chechnya are not nuclear states as far as I know. Chechnya isn't even a non-nuclear state either. spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? I'm a pessimist about this war, but an optimist about Ukraine-EU relationships. Thus, I assume that the ruined state of free Ukraine, whatever shape it is at the conclusion of war, will have to rebuild so hard that they'll be able to sidestep the typically dedious reform process, and will join the EU with 5 years, 10 years maximum, after the war concludes. a pipe smoking dog posted:Yeah I can't really argue with this, the fact that the Russians are already across the Dniester really eliminates act possibility that the Ukrainian military can hold out. It's now just a question of what a Russian "victory" can look like given the losses they've taken and the fact that the Ukrainians clearly won't accept annexation or a Russian puppet president. Charlotte Hornets posted:Yes, but the Russians have moved way past Kherson 100-200kms in the last 1-2 days. There's a shrinking Russian group that made it 70km past the river. All crossings are under Ukrainian control. gay picnic defence posted:Were the sanctions on the central bank stopping them from liquidating their gold reserves? They do not stop that, as far as I can tell. WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:The Russian army is operating how they believed the Ukrainian army would be. Are you our defence minister? https://twitter.com/Pabriks/status/1497575078669668360 Morrow posted:I'm still confused as to what's going on at the Donetsk line. Are the Ukrainians just not able to disengage? Have they, but their opsec is good and we haven't heard anything while they prepare a counterattack? They've gone completely silent, since Russians were doing poo poo like sending their mother's messages saying "your son is mortally wounded", and then shooting artillery at the tracker location of incoming phone call. Interesting post, thank you! nurmie posted:don't think this has been posted here, but this article by a former RuAF colonel got mentioned in the CSPAM thread and it's really interesting: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html It was posted in the old EEPol thread, but didn't get much attention. It's very well written, and well worth reposting, as many of the things said there are receiving an empirical confirmation by the hour. some kinda jackal posted:What's the significance of the single letters (Z? V? I forget which) painted on some of the RU vehicles I saw posted over the past few days? If it's super obvious like "this is just how RU id each other at a glance" then cool. Different strategic groups of Russian troops. One letter per direction, with some exceptions. KitConstantine posted:It's that and there's speculation that their origin is indicated by the specific design - there's a few in use - and that Z indicates Kadyrovite units. Kadyrovites were going under V, but, as far as I can tell, it isn't exclusive to them. dominoeffect posted:It's so surreal seeing the missiles go through the clouds https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498345689222422528 Narrator says they're firing in the direction of Vasylki (airfield there).
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Feb 28, 2022 18:28
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Hello; My son is looking to go over to Poland to help with humanitarian aid. I told him to contact MSF and the red cross, is there any other organizations he should call as well?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:29
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MadJackal posted:You aren't a good person. No need to get personal and talk about what we aren't.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:30
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 Having read last night's posts, I'd like to kindly remind everyone to consult the OP before investing into posting about the history of NATO or hypothetical future nuclear war.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:30
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Nenonen posted:They should have put on their finest Adidas three stripe suits. Russia can't afford real Adidas anymore. Putin has doomed them to a future of two-stripe Ladibas knockoffs.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:30
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I'm assuming if the US wanted to help Ukraine with special forces, the Green Berets would be the ones to use here? They'd be deployed to train the locals as insurgents or soldiers that can fight?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:30
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Kraftwerk posted:I'm assuming if the US wanted to help Ukraine with special forces, the Green Berets would be the ones to use here? That would be a declaration of war, so no
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Feb 28, 2022 18:32
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Kraftwerk posted:I'm assuming if the US wanted to help Ukraine with special forces, the Green Berets would be the ones to use here? If the russians find one dead American solider over there, its escalation.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:32
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:energy is the only thing unsanctioned from russia and will probably continue to be unsanctioned. its just that anything russian right now is unacceptably risky. Might as well take your money to the casino and at least get your drinks comped I don't see a carve out for energy on this new legislation - dated today. Can someone who's good at translating diplomatic to English give a take? Direct link to the download: https://t.co/Fn7SfoG8SL https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1498343358145650705?t=ANlQ_OPYrrfyjBEl6nwYjw&s=19
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