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selec posted:Is it a situation like China where everyone young/with it knows how to VPN? I wouldn't know, sorry. This is probably one of the most news worthy events of the past... well awhile. Even without twitter and Facebook the information is going to be out there. Unless there is super widespread blocking of stuff but Im not sure we have seen any indication of that.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:53
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Ynglaur posted:Israel does not gently caress around with its citizens lives. The Israeli air force getting involved would definitely change the calculus. Russia can't just nuke Israel without de facto pulling in NATO (no one is going to let nukes start flying), and Israel is unpopular enough in the rest of the world that other countries can plausibly shrug and say, "What can we do?" Below is from further down the original source thread. Not quite as bad as originally thought, but not good. Also confirms what Ukraine has been warning - Russians have been attacking civilian cars and busses of people trying to leave 
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Feb 28, 2022 18:54
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TulliusCicero posted:The twist of the century would be the Israeli airforce relieving Kyiv Benny isn't in charge now, it's now Naftali Bennett. But I think they were cooperating as well, although I don't pretend to know much about it.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:54
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https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1498343208094478354 They aren't going to be able to notice that something bad is happening. e: Israel traditionally has good relations with Russia, having a large population of Russian-Jewish immigrants and a foreign policy of 'friends with everyone who will speak to us'. They're not going to fight Russia or anything but this might be another trashed relationship. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 18:54
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go play outside Skyler posted:So Navalny is probably dead at this point right? It's been awfully quiet on that side lately It's only been four days since we last heard from him. It would be a really stupid, self-defeating move to kill him now of all times. That doesn't mean it's not true, but I'm guessing they've just limited press access to him since then. e: \/\/\/ ah, even less than four days! \/\/\/ Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 18:55
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Should also note that Facebook/Twitter are not all that important here in terms of disseminating information. That role is mostly filled by Telegram right now, access to which is unrestricted.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:55
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Do you know how much gas idling military equipment consumes? Just sitting there in these traffic jams will consume a material portion of the fuel stocks that is "supposed" to be sent to front line combatants. This is not helpful.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:55
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1498346782656454656?s=20&t=rF5gInV1KZXmqnEIfC4dDw I hope that's not true; the number of civilian deaths and casualties is already far too much. Also, I can't imagine that Russia would want to antagonize Israel, which I think has been trying to ride the line of saying "this is bad, Russia" without saying "Russia is bad." Israel's not part of NATO but it's a nuclear nation. I can't imagine they would get involved directly, but why risk it? Also, when half of your narrative is that you're going after neo-Nazis, how does killing Jewish civilians help your argument? So, all that being said, I'm sure that it is true because Russia has hosed up so many times already.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:56
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Majorian posted:It's only been four days since we last heard from him. It would be a really stupid, self-defeating move to kill him now of all times. That doesn't mean it's not true, but I'm guessing they've just limited press access to him since then. There was a hearing. today, he is okay and in a good ,mocking mood
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Feb 28, 2022 18:56
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Messaged my Russian friend last night. My GF did the same and her cousin in Moscow mentioned - complete vacuum of information - she deletes her messages every night - people are encouraged to tell on their neighbors if they do not fully support the war - cannot get any messages over Messenger, or at the very least, too dangerous to use - lots of anti-putin sentiment, but people afraid to speak up Don't be mistaken. This is a total and complete dictatorship being put in place. While the world is focused on what's happening in Ukraine, what's happening in Russia may be just as bad or worse
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Feb 28, 2022 18:56
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go play outside Skyler posted:So Navalny is probably dead at this point right? It's been awfully quiet on that side lately There's a very notable process going on to give him another 10-15 years where he is doing some great speeches and several witnesses against him came out saying they were pressured into giving false testimonies It's been kind of drowned out by the war thing but it's there and Navalny's allies are keeping people updated
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Feb 28, 2022 18:57
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tracecomplete posted:The domestic audience does have Internet access. Thanks, I do realize that the domestic audience does have internet access. But I also assume that there are portions of the population that probably receive their information from state news outlets. Regarding your second point: how much does investor tolerance even matter right now? It seems like any concern about investor tolerance/credibility has already been thrown out the window? And the third: OK, that makes sense. But the government already forced businesses to hand over a large portion of their foreign currencies and being isolated from the global economy means they can't exchange currencies anyways (except through China perhaps). So, I'm back at the original question of "well, why not just keep it closed to avoid bad optics?"
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Feb 28, 2022 18:58
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Ynglaur posted:Israel does not gently caress around with its citizens lives. The Israeli air force getting involved would definitely change the calculus. Russia can't just nuke Israel without de facto pulling in NATO (no one is going to let nukes start flying), and Israel is unpopular enough in the rest of the world that other countries can plausibly shrug and say, "What can we do?" lmao get real, israel would not be getting involved even if russia blew up a literal bus full of jews
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Feb 28, 2022 18:58
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surf rock posted:I hope that's not true; the number of civilian deaths and casualties is already far too much. Russia antagonizes indiscriminately. And they will deny or project their own crimes onto everyone else. It reminds me of Семнадцать мгновений весны where their portrayal of the Nazi government was a mirror of the Kremlin/Soviet hierachies. By isolating yourself all the time you are only capable of reflecting your own nonsense. Much like the GOP!
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Feb 28, 2022 18:59
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tazjin posted:Should also note that Facebook/Twitter are not all that important here in terms of disseminating information. That role is mostly filled by Telegram right now, access to which is unrestricted. why did it catch on?
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Feb 28, 2022 18:59
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TulliusCicero posted:The twist of the century would be the Israeli airforce relieving Kyiv yes. they're cooperating in syria, and so bennet was scared that being pro-ukrainian might stop that co-operation. Ukraine is the only other country besides isreal with a jewish president and prime minister and it still has the worlds 5th largest population of jews. 6% of Israeli voters are immigrants from ukraine (another 6% from russia) so they had strong ties. Israel was zelensky's suggestion as mediator for talks since its the only country with good ties with both russia and ukraine right now. Well. was.
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Feb 28, 2022 18:59
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go play outside Skyler posted:Don't be mistaken. This is a total and complete dictatorship being put in place. While the world is focused on what's happening in Ukraine, what's happening in Russia may be just as bad or worse Now part of me is wondering if the Ukraine invasion is some sort of play to distract from uber-authoritarian fascist bullshit going into effect in Russia that's just not going to go away. Almost surprised there hasn't been some sort of "Ukrainian" terror response inside Russia's borders to further play on the narrative 
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Feb 28, 2022 18:59
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Zhanism posted:Gonna guess that the IDAF wont be flying to Ukr. Probably not, but Israel does have a reputation for being a country that doesn’t gently caress around when it’s citizens are targeted; that being said that’s typically because they know the US isn’t going to say poo poo, and has their back absolutely. The IDAF trying to do sorties in Ukraine seems to be something that maybe they couldn’t count on the US to shield them from. Also, I don’t see a way for the IDAF to do that without tacit NATO permission and flyover rights, which seems unlikely. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 19:00
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To be clear because I dont think a lot of people read that tweet thread all the way. It looks like a single Israeli got shot at a convoy. The entire convoy did not get hit by an airstrike or whatever, which is what I immediately thought when I saw the word strike used. If it is indeed one person getting shot I hiiighly doubt it will turn into a huge incident.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:02
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Putin literally threatening nuclear war: obvious clancychat we cannot discuss this! Baseless speculation! A convoy of Ukrainian Jewish civilians is blown up in Europe's largest conventional war in nearly a century, with no evidence that they were targeted for being Jewish: Israel doesn't gently caress around, maybe the Israeli Air Force will get involved or mossad Putin!
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Feb 28, 2022 19:02
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dominoeffect posted:Apologies for a possibly silly question but I'm not that knowledgeable about markets and the economy. Since Russia is getting slapped with sanctions and what not, what are the implications of them closing the stock market like they did today? Can they just keep it closed since they're being economically isolated right now and keep the exchange rates frozen to make it look like things are "ok" for the domestic audience? Fools at home will believe that, but it won't change fiscal reality. Stock exchanges, and market on the whole, work on principles of mutual trust and respect (within boundaries of unspoken rules). Something you can't sell makes you $0 on a sale, so all western assets there were effectively rendered worthless by this move. While they will "regain" value in the future, or can do so if Russians lift the freshly imposed ban on foreign asset sales, their value will already be severely impaired. Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly, this reputation damage will be permanent, and serious investors will not be investing in Russian market until it's extremely obvious that Putin's regime, and everyone propping it, are truly gone.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Remember when the European Commission threatened to kill the Bush presidency over tariffs, getting the States to back off? It's a rather common mistake to underestimate the EU. The whole structure is very much unconducive to cowboys. There will be deliberations, consensus, agreements, and a knife to the throat. In the first round of the Trump trade wars, EU retaliated with tariffs aimed at companies inside district represented by ranking Republicans.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:03
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Rinkles posted:why did it catch on? Extremely easy file sharing, good UI, clout of Durov (ousted founder of VK).
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Feb 28, 2022 19:03
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Maybe Israel will stop selling Pegasus or their next dystopian nightmare software to Russia
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Feb 28, 2022 19:04
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Ynglaur posted:Don't fool yourself by thinking "Ugh! buttons and knobs and physical switches! How primitive!" There are very good UX reasons to use such physical controls over touch screens. Yeah, that's a BTR-80 or maybe BTR-70 from 80's or 70's. It's a big armoured diesel truck to move riflemen to battlefield and it can swim in water. There's not even supposed to be anything magical about it, it's just the maximally utilitarian answer to "how do we get a million conscripts to follow with the tank regiments through West Germany?" It'll keep on truckin'.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Rouble will be having some crazy time when Russians unblock the stock market.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:06
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I don't know about other people, but I'm very uncomfortable with the extent of the sanctions and other ways to assault the Russian economy coming from the West. It seems like this is the sort of thing that will play havoc with the lives of average Russians who didn't tell Putin to invade Ukraine, and I don't even know if it will actually dissuade the Russian people from supporting their leaders. It seems like it just confirms a lot of the rhetoric about Russia being under assault from the west, especially when somewhere like Saudi Arabia doesn't get anything close to this in their brutal invasion of Yemen.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:07
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Some links I've found across today that I haven't seen posted yet (apologies if it did and I forgot). https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498234764624605186 (thread) https://twitter.com/halbritz/status/1498323387768258560 (thread) https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1498336085943930883 https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1498268014394974213 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498335877453463558 Russians retreating from Sumy on foot, after abandoning their vehicles https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498330052009807880 https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-soldiers-on-snake-island-are-alive-navy-says/ quote:Ukrainian soldiers who were defending Snake Island are “alive and well,” the Ukrainian navy announced Monday. https://www.facebook.com/ganna.maliar/posts/2099316190227412 quote:🇺🇦President Zelensky announced the formation of a new unit - "International Legion" https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498058553881513991 https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1498127761382477826 https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1498017173792514051 https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1498194178831835139 https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498190310803128321 https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498191541675958273 Fastest vote in the history of our parliament. (this is not a compliment) https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1498203411309002753 https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1498233481213751299 Supposedly you can eavesdrop on Russian comms, in some limited capacity. https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1498083509952335872 https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498269150543810563 https://www.reuters.com/business/maersk-considers-suspending-all-shipments-russia-2022-02-28/ quote:COPENHAGEN/LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Ocean Network Express (ONE) on Monday suspended container bookings to and from Russia hours after Maersk said it was considering doing the same in response to Western sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/Lazar_Berman/status/1498324685825662979 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 19:07
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OctaMurk posted:Putin literally threatening nuclear war: obvious clancychat we cannot discuss this! Baseless speculation! Yeah, my kneejerk post wasn't very well thought out.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:08
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This can't go on, right? Every minute Russia stays in Ukraine its economy collapses. This is just not sustainable, right?
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Feb 28, 2022 19:09
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Zelensky and the Ukrainians are pretty loving badass. I find them inspiring. 
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Feb 28, 2022 19:09
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StrixNebulosa posted:This can't go on, right? Every minute Russia stays in Ukraine its economy collapses. This is just not sustainable, right? It's impossible to tell if it is sustainable. It likely is, since they can still trade their fossil fuels more or less without restrictions, but even early and arguably optimistic predictions suggest -20% recession for 2022 Q2. Dwesa posted:how long can they possible block stock market? I guess there are still other options for trading? They can do that forever, only with complex and unpredictable consequences. Right now, they're basically holding bunch of foreign money hostage, and, as far as I can tell, foreigners won't have a way around that for the time being.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:11
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selec posted:Is it a situation like China where everyone young/with it knows how to VPN? Telsa Cola posted:I wouldn't know, sorry. VPNs are illegal in China and they've been handing out jail sentences to people that try to provide them. The laws are selectively enforced to an extent, so foreign tourists will largely be exempt from prosecution. Chinese-American Olympian Eileen Gu was openly criticized for suggesting that Chinese citizens should just learn how to use VPNs, because it is not easy or risk-free. https://www.protocol.com/china/eileen-gu-olympics-vpn-china
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Feb 28, 2022 19:11
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If a Russian financial institution goes under, what happens to States-side collateral of its debtors? Asking for a... friend...
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Feb 28, 2022 19:12
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Telsa Cola posted:To be clear because I dont think a lot of people read that tweet thread all the way. Sounds like they shot indiscriminately at the vehicle(s) and managed to kill one person. Israel isn't going to get "involved" per se but it certainly won't help the formerly friendly relationship of the two countries that has already been fraying as the conflict has gone on. Also, the common reaction of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community (as opposed to the rest of us who are all in the gently caress Putin camp), at least in the US, has been either "both sides have been awful to Jews, let them fight it out" or "Putin hasn't been as bad to the Jews and he says he's going to take out neo-Nazis, let him win"" but actually targeting a fleeing Israeli civilian might shift the sentiment.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:12
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Aramis posted:If a Russian financial institution goes under, what happens to States-side collateral of its debtors? Asking for a... friend... Your friend has my thoughts and prayers.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:13
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Agricola Frigidus posted:It's a rather common mistake to underestimate the EU. The whole structure is very much unconducive to cowboys. There will be deliberations, consensus, agreements, and a knife to the throat. See also: Brexit and Northern Ireland. The EU approach gets less attention than the UK because it's the result of a bunch of extremely long and boring meetings rather than one or two main characters, but while the Brexit guys were drumming up populism, the EU quietly developed a very firm line on Northern Ireland and then stuck to it throughout come hell or high water.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:13
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khwarezm posted:I don't know about other people, but I'm very uncomfortable with the extent of the sanctions and other ways to assault the Russian economy coming from the West. It seems like this is the sort of thing that will play havoc with the lives of average Russians who didn't tell Putin to invade Ukraine, and I don't even know if it will actually dissuade the Russian people from supporting their leaders. It seems like it just confirms a lot of the rhetoric about Russia being under assault from the west, especially when somewhere like Saudi Arabia doesn't get anything close to this in their brutal invasion of Yemen. As a Russian citizen I welcome the whole volume of the sanctions because otherwise people wouldnt get it. We all benefit from empire, our labor has built those Grads that bomb our neighbor. There should be retribution and condemnations in UN dont work. Let us be a pariah state until things get sorted out.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:13
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khwarezm posted:I don't know about other people, but I'm very uncomfortable with the extent of the sanctions and other ways to assault the Russian economy coming from the West. It seems like this is the sort of thing that will play havoc with the lives of average Russians who didn't tell Putin to invade Ukraine, and I don't even know if it will actually dissuade the Russian people from supporting their leaders. It seems like it just confirms a lot of the rhetoric about Russia being under assault from the west, especially when somewhere like Saudi Arabia doesn't get anything close to this in their brutal invasion of Yemen. It's reasonable to be concerned. However, I, admittedly not an expert at international relations, don't know what other non-military measures one can take to incentivize Russia to reverse course. It's a situation with a lot of bad choices and you're basically looking for the least horrible option.
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Feb 28, 2022 19:14
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khwarezm posted:I don't know about other people, but I'm very uncomfortable with the extent of the sanctions and other ways to assault the Russian economy coming from the West. It seems like this is the sort of thing that will play havoc with the lives of average Russians who didn't tell Putin to invade Ukraine, and I don't even know if it will actually dissuade the Russian people from supporting their leaders. It seems like it just confirms a lot of the rhetoric about Russia being under assault from the west, especially when somewhere like Saudi Arabia doesn't get anything close to this in their brutal invasion of Yemen. I'm more uncomfortable with invasions that aren't met with sanctions. I know I'm probably dreaming, but I'd actually like this to be the norm from now on for any invasion into sovereign territory.
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