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Josef bugman posted:But not when it's not to members of ones own party or the governing body of a nation, right? I dont claim to know german law but to do what he proposed hes not saying he is bypassing existing legal apparatus. If german law allows him to allocated 100B then thats german law. if he has to submit it to the legislature then that can be debated and acted or not acted on as the existing procedure. You are treating his announcement of what he wants to do as something that is already fully done.
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Mar 1, 2022 00:59
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Sir John Falstaff posted:According to this, Canada imported about $550 million in oil from Russia in 2019, so not nothing, but you're right, not a particularly big piece of their market, and I'm sure they can find replacements fairly easily. Its likely this will just re-activate a lot of Canada's shale oil industry which was stating to die off.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:00
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tractor fanatic posted:Can someone explain to me how we can just openly supply Ukraine with weapons and aid the way we are doing? How is it not a major escalation and provocation? Yeah, it was done in all the proxy wars in the past but was it this flagrant? This will be old by the time my reply posts, but basically for the same reason Russia is able to launch this invasion in the first place, We have nukes too, so what the gently caress is he going to do about it?
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Mar 1, 2022 01:00
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Odd time to whine about academia but ok
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Mar 1, 2022 01:00
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Despera posted:Odd time to whine about academia but ok I suspect it's like if you've been doing something for years, losing friends and relatives to a brutal apparatus that can kill you and still standing up and trying to resist, and then being told "not good enough" by people who've been paying attention for 5 minutes may be a touch galling, don't you think? Also, I am unsure that going "Put more money in the army, that'll do it's all my idea!" without discussing it is not really statesman like. If people are okay with it then that is alright, but I'm not so sure that doing something because of a single thing and then going off because it is important "right now" is really a great idea.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:02
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ZombieLenin posted:We have found someone who believes in agency. Don't think too much about that fact that if we believe in causality at all, then there can never be agency; and there has never been agency. Your free will is epiphenomenal. Shh. Now just say networks a few times and we can get Eripsa in on this argument too.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:03
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Zhanism posted:I dont claim to know german law but to do what he proposed hes not saying he is bypassing existing legal apparatus. If german law allows him to allocated 100B then thats german law. if he has to submit it to the legislature then that can be debated and acted or not acted on as the existing procedure. It’s basically the equivalent of the US president making the same claim
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Mar 1, 2022 01:09
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A lot of people are going to have to square their support for the massive crowds of russian anti war protestors with their glee at the looming massive collapse of the russian economy and the absolute terror that its going to visit on many of those people putin bears a great deal of blame for this (before people claim i think he doesn't) but its willfully stupid to think that this wasnt the goal of the sanctions, especially with how intense they are now. theyre a bomb designed to ensure the people with the least in a country suffer the most.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:09
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This was brought up dozens of pages ago but it’s lodged in my head: Some users said something to the effect about providing Putin an “off ramp” to end the war in a face-saving manner that serves him politically. I get both countries are only 4 days into war, a gambling man wouldn’t bet on Ukraine, etc. Is that something not worth thinking about unless it appears that Putin actually can’t achieve his war goals? I’m also imagining sanctions being this harsh can’t be this good for anyone long term, but I’m just guessing here.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:12
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Josef bugman posted:I suspect it's like if you've been doing something for years, losing friends and relatives to a brutal apparatus that can kill you and still standing up and trying to resist, and then being told "not good enough" by people who've been paying attention for 5 minutes may be a touch galling, don't you think? I think the idea is that this invasion proves that it is necessary, not just now but in the future. If Putin thinks Europe is a paper tiger he could take it even further. And really there's nothing bad about finally meeting NATO commitments. In a perfect world it'd be a terrible idea, and not necessary besides. But obviously this ain't one. And I think it has wide support in Germany at the moment, judging by the overwhelmingly positive reaction to the PMs speech.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:12
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buglord posted:This was brought up dozens of pages ago but it’s lodged in my head: Maybe recognize Crimea and Donbass if he leaves Ukraine?
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Mar 1, 2022 01:12
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morothar posted:It’s basically the equivalent of the US president making the same claim Yes and the US president has no ability to spend an extra 100B that isnt in the budget. Congress sets the budget. The president can jigger things around and find the money but hes still accountable for how he does it. If he can do it then thats a function of the existing law which allows him. There is nothing anti-democratic about it.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:13
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KitConstantine posted:Tank posters - is this a for real T-90? I thought there weren't too many of those Yeah it's real, there are at least 3 other incapacitated or destroyed t90s documented so far. Russia has a decent number of them but tends to be quite careful with them. relative to everything else. They used them a bit in syria but as soon as they started taking losses they pulled them back to mostly garrison duties in less contested/TOW saturated areas and switches to using mostly t80s for riskier actions.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:13
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https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498428680586072064Quorum posted:Honestly, the collective reaction of the West, and particularly Europe, to frame this as an attack on Us by Them, rather than by Them on some other Them, is one of the biggest differences between this and any other recent war of aggression and is a solid reason to see some hope in the long term. Excellent take, IMO. Maybe it shouldn't have taken this long, but it's wild to see.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:14
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Varinn posted:A lot of people are going to have to square their support for the massive crowds of russian anti war protestors with their glee at the looming massive collapse of the russian economy and the absolute terror that its going to visit on many of those people If the anti-war protestors are successful in ending the war then the sanctions and economic fallout will be easier to recover from, because Russia will not be doing the thing that caused the sanctions in the first place. This isn't a Gordian knot to unravel and I don't understand what point you think you are making.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:15
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BoldFace posted:https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498438289598337024 Must liberate Boris’ Chechnyan frozen assets.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:15
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buglord posted:This was brought up dozens of pages ago but it’s lodged in my head: Putin has made it explicitly clear that he's not willing to entertain any offramp that does not include regime change in Ukraine and a litany of cartoonishly unrealistic concessions from NATO.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:16
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Josef bugman posted:I suspect it's like if you've been doing something for years, losing friends and relatives to a brutal apparatus that can kill you and still standing up and trying to resist, and then being told "not good enough" by people who've been paying attention for 5 minutes may be a touch galling, don't you think? Meanwhile shelling of a residental zone killed 11. Do tell me more about the unfairness of getting your letters rejected though.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:17
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Play posted:I think the idea is that this invasion proves that it is necessary, not just now but in the future. If Putin thinks Europe is a paper tiger he could take it even further. And really there's nothing bad about finally meeting NATO commitments. How? This invasion appears to be going somewhat poorly, and it's not as if Germany, France and other EU nations would not support each other. I think this is awful, but I am also reticent to go "Putin is insane". He's a [word that I am not allowed to say in this thread]. And I'm still of the opinion of Eisenhower about how every bomb is a child unfed. It ain't, but it is not made more perfect by pumping money into things that may not be needed instead of housing and clothing folks. At the moment is the big one for me. I can understand wanting to upgrade things, but it's something that needs at least some discussion beforehand. Otherwise it is just hitting a big drum marked "war" that could very well lead to problems further down the line.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:18
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Varinn posted:A lot of people are going to have to square their support for the massive crowds of russian anti war protestors with their glee at the looming massive collapse of the russian economy and the absolute terror that its going to visit on many of those people Would you say it's like an actual bomb, like one of those dropped on Ukraine these past few days?
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Mar 1, 2022 01:18
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Varinn posted:A lot of people are going to have to square their support for the massive crowds of russian anti war protestors with their glee at the looming massive collapse of the russian economy and the absolute terror that its going to visit on many of those people Sounds like they should start building guillotines then, huh?
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Mar 1, 2022 01:18
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https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560quote:Ukrainian pilots arrive in Poland to pick up donated fighter jets
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Mar 1, 2022 01:19
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The long-term geopolitical consequences of this can be very interesting. Aside from EU's integration speeding up, Russia's role in the world could dramatically change if you make three assumptions regarding the future which aren't particularly far-fetched: 1. Russia restructures its military tactics and eventually occupies either directly or through a puppet regime all or part of Ukraine. The occupation will have to contend with a very well-equipped partisan insurgency, which will require a tremendous amount of military spending and cause continued bad PR for Putin. 2. Due to Russia's continued occupation most of the current sanctions by western countries are upheld indefinitely. Russia's economy is severely hamstrung, but it's domestic market and capacity is sufficient that the sanctions don't by themselves cause humanitarian issues (Russians won't starve etc). 3. Despite a terrible domestic situation and increasing dissent, Putin remains in power and lives for another 10+ years. Most Russia experts I've seen think that Putin's grip on society is very strong and solidified, though I think with a large enough economic crisis this assumption is uncertain. Given those assumptions Russia will in all likelihood be both economically and militarily weaker the next ten years than previous decade. They will be extraordinarily reliant on trade with China for eveything from semiconductors to industrial goods, and will probably end up being a junior partner to China in wider world affairs. That will be an almost a complete reversal of their earlier relationship. Putin's legacy when he eventually dies will be downright awful and will probably be remembered more for this economic malaise and foreign policy disasters than his earlier state-building. Dante fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 01:19
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Despera posted:Meanwhile shelling of a residental zone killed 11. Do tell me more about the unfairness of getting your letters rejected though. Because these people aren't the ones shelling people, they just live in a country that does. Do you think that collective responsibility applies to a nation where you cannot actually pick your leader? Or, to put it more crudely, should I suffer for the actions of Tony Blair, because I grew up in a country ruled by him? Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 01:19
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:If the anti-war protestors are successful in ending the war then the sanctions and economic collapse will be easier to recover from. This isn't a Gordian knot to unravel and I don't understand what point you think you are making. The anti-war protestors in Russia have a significant chance to get dissapeared or spend 15 years in prison or get the broomhandle treatment in the detention centre (no, don't google that). Which is why putting a moral obligation on them to end Putin's regime seems a bit cruel to me, personally. Personally, if there is is a regime change in Russia, I'm hoping for a coup and not a revolt/full-on revolution. That's not gonna end well at all. Also, yeah, personally I'd like to see any ideas about all Russians sharing any sort of blood guilt for Putin's actions nipped in the bud. Maybe that's because I happen to be a nefarious Russian, but still nurmie fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 01:20
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Dante posted:The long-term geopolitical consequences of this can be very interesting. Aside from EU's integration speeding up, Russia's role in the world could dramatically change if you make three assumptions regarding the future which aren't particularly far-fetched: Ending up as a junior partner to China is almost guaranteed, regardless of what Russia chooses to do from here. Your three assumptions are unnecessary.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:22
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KitConstantine posted:Have some more Ukrainian legends joyriding in a stolen tank So sometimes I can understand Ukranian because there's words that contextually resemble Serbian. He said "I don't believe it! We stole a BTR, blyat!" So the civilians are as shocked as we are. Also every Eastern European car theft meme/stereotype just got turbocharged.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:22
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:If the anti-war protestors are successful in ending the war then the sanctions and economic fallout will be easier to recover from, because Russia will not be doing the thing that caused the sanctions in the first place. This isn't a Gordian knot to unravel and I don't understand what point you think you are making. And if they arent successful, what then? We're back to what the protester said, theyre punished for 'not trying hard enough.' If you're saying that the sanctions are a gun to the average middle/lower class russian citizens head telling them to do a coup, then we're in agreement. I think we just differ on our feelings about it.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:23
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Despera posted:Meanwhile shelling of a residental zone killed 11. Do tell me more about the unfairness of getting your letters rejected though. The rejection letters are relatively immaterial and only serve as evidence here. The real frustration comes from being part of the minority within Russia that's willing to pushback against Putin at great risk to themselves and not only getting no support from your peers abroad, but actually getting punished by them. Being frustrated at them is absolutely warranted.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:23
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Deteriorata posted:Ending up as a junior partner to China is almost guaranteed, regardless of what Russia chooses to do from here. Your three assumptions are unnecessary. Yeah I think I said it before, but I'm betting on Russia turning into China's Canada over the next ten years or so
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Mar 1, 2022 01:24
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coelomate posted:https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560 quote:It’s not clear just yet what countries are donating the jets, but European Union Security chief Josep Borrell over the weekend pledged to transfer the fighter planes from multiple countries. The nations that have been suggested all denied this is happening.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:24
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Josef bugman posted:Because these people aren't the ones shelling people, they just live in a country that does. Do you think that collective responsibility applies to a nation where you cannot actually pick your leader? I'd rather be living in Russia than Ukraine right now and don't really give a drat if Russians have to eat some poo poo in the meantime. Don't ask us to care more about them than their own leaders do.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:26
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Pook Good Mook posted:Don't ask us to care more about them than their own leaders do. Tough. Asking you to care more about people than Putin is pretty bargain basement I am afraid.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:28
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Pook Good Mook posted:
You nearly certainly do already.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:28
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ummel posted:I don't know specifics about this, but I think people underestimate how many Ukrainian vets there are and how many know how to operate old Soviet stuff. Might not be great in it, but you can fill and shitpost about it. If I recall, Ukraine has one-year universal conscription for cis-men. So probably around 10-15 million Ukrainians have some combat training. Most probably wouldn't become partisans, but it only take a few hundred thousand to make the country effectively impossible to occupy.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:28
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Aramis posted:The rejection letters are relatively immaterial and only serve as evidence here. Yes but in a line of people needing our sympathy right now they are way in the back. Also it plays into russian propaganda that the west is intentional making thier lives miserable for no reason.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:29
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Varinn posted:A lot of people are going to have to square their support for the massive crowds of russian anti war protestors with their glee at the looming massive collapse of the russian economy and the absolute terror that its going to visit on many of those people Honestly? I hope this is the reaction from now on whenever a country invades another country just for territorial gain. With regards to the Russian scolar mad about the sanctions: he should welcome these sanctions because they will make it easier for him to convince other Russians why Putin is a bad leader.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:29
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Varinn posted:And if they arent successful, what then? We're back to what the protester said, theyre punished for 'not trying hard enough.' Frankly I feel far worse for the middle/lower class Ukrainian citizens being murdered by the Russian military. Again, I simply don't understand what point you think you're making unless it's the very, very obvious one that war loving sucks. What, explicitly, is your thesis statement here?
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Mar 1, 2022 01:32
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Ciprian Maricon posted:The nations that have been suggested all denied this is happening. Well, unless someone's been hiding them really, really well, there's only 3 possibilities.
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Mar 1, 2022 01:33
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Would Russia actually try to test this, or is it more fear mongering from Rubio? https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498380889780363271
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Mar 1, 2022 01:34
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