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Big_Gulps_Huh
Nov 7, 2006
Where are my hooks?
Interesting thread in the importance of PMCSing your vehicles. Looks like in the wetter regions, the Russian with wheeled vehicles are gonna be stuck to mostly durable medium-high volume roads while the mud holds out.

They left their trucks sitting stationary in motorpools for probably more than a year and the sidewalls are rotten. When they lower the pressure to go into “mud mode” they fail catastrophically.

PMCS = preventive maintenance checks and services

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

Big_Gulps_Huh fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Mar 3, 2022

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Saint Kyivanka
Mar 1, 2022

Patron Saint of SA

nurmie posted:

This isn't the first time you're accusing posters in this thread of a pro-Russian bias, and personally I don't think these accusations are helpful.

Personally I don't think it's helpful to have posters come in from other parts of the forums and make disingenuous comments. Posters should say what they mean and not hide their bias, then defend their views accordingly.

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



Saint Kyivanka posted:

And I'm gonna stop the segue, but your bias is pretty evidence in the other Ukranian thread you post in...

I do not believe that a million Ukrainian veterans taking up rifles in place of their Army is an effective strategy and I don't think your comparisons to WW2 are applicable (maybe mine aren't either). I disagree with how this war is playing out compared to many people in this thread but it is not a matter of hating Ukraine and loving Russia or any bias.

Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 07:21 on Mar 3, 2022

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Ciprian Maricon posted:

I don't think your comparisons to WW2 are applicable.

yeah, they definitely aren't. ww2 trivia is fun and all but combat is a lot different in the 80 years since then, i think people just revisit that war a lot not just because "land war russia" but because its the most studied period of conflict among milhist nerds so, much like the guy who only saw one movie (boss baby)... there's really no reason to compare the way the soviets fought to the way that the current russian or ukrainian governments are fighting

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde
https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1499129595525840896
:hmmyes:

Jordan7hm posted:

Some Russians displaying extraordinary courage even just speaking publicly right now.

Majorian posted:

He lives in the UK; he's gonna be fine.
It's off season for tourists in Salisbury at the moment.

Saint Kyivanka
Mar 1, 2022

Patron Saint of SA

Ciprian Maricon posted:

I do not believe that a million Ukrainian veterans taking up rifles in place of their Army is an effective strategy and I don't think your comparisons to WW2 are applicable (maybe mine aren't either). I disagree with how this war is playing out compared to many people in this thread but it is not a matter of hating Ukraine and loving Russia or any bias.

I don't think that a million Ukrainian veterans taking up rifles in place of their Army is ideal either, but I also don't think Ukraine has a whole lot of options in terms of defending itself otherwise. Sometimes you take the help where you can get it.

If you think they should give up and surrender, than say so, because besides defending themselves, that's about the only option they otherwise have. And Putin appears likely to want to try and divide the country up based upon what we saw come out of Belarus and what has been seemingly-accurate intelligence.

So they're in a war for the country's very existence that, short of outside direct military intervention, they are likely going to lose. And the country of Ukraine as we all currently know it, is going to cease to exist because of a power-hungry piece of poo poo in Moscow.

Edit: And a lot of people seem to be ok with that, and just saying "Goodbye Ukraine", which is probably what will happen in the next few weeks/months.

At the same time, I want to see Russia pay for this, and I want to see them pay for it long and hard for a very long time.

Saint Kyivanka fucked around with this message at 07:26 on Mar 3, 2022

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Saint Kyivanka posted:

Personally I don't think it's helpful to have posters come in from other parts of the forums and make disingenuous comments. Posters should say what they mean and not hide their bias, then defend their views accordingly.

As opposed to a rereg/alt account? Come on man.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

I read somewhere that the Maldives are a common destination for the rich Russians on the lam with yachts. I can't imagine real estate is too plentiful there but I guess you can just houseboat the megayacht and live it up just fine and do Loveboat poo poo all day.

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

Cable Guy posted:

It's off season for tourists in Salisbury at the moment.

You never know when a bunch of GRU goons sports equipment salesmen will decide to visit the famous Salisbury cathedral to admire its tremendous spire again.

Idk where Khodorkovsky's currently based, but I'm guessing that it's gonna be quite dangerous to touch doorknobs in the UK from now on

Saint Kyivanka
Mar 1, 2022

Patron Saint of SA

Varinn posted:

As opposed to a rereg/alt account? Come on man.

Find that ambulance video to complain about yet?

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
I would respect the "you're facing impossible odds you should just give up and save your people's lives by compromising now" takes more if I saw it applied consistently when it comes to anti-imperialist resistances that are popular in the forum.

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde

nurmie posted:

You never know when a bunch of GRU goons sports equipment salesmen will decide to visit the famous Salisbury cathedral to admire its tremendous spire again.
It's a hundred and twenty three meters tall did you know...?

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



Saint Kyivanka posted:

I don't think that a million Ukrainian veterans taking up rifles in place of their Army is ideal either, but I also don't think Ukraine has a whole lot of options in terms of defending itself otherwise. Sometimes you take the help where you can get it.

If you think they should give up and surrender, than say so, because besides defending themselves, that's about the only option they otherwise have. And Putin appears likely to want to try and divide the country up based upon what we saw come out of Belarus and what has been seemingly-accurate intelligence.

I would like to see the conflict end sooner rather than later (and im sure you do too), if that means Ukraine giving Putin enough concessions that he can return home with the ability to lie about meeting his incredible undefined and crazy goals, that would seem better to me than a continued bloody conflict. Ultimately though its not up to me and not up to Ukraine entirely either, if Putin is really unwilling to accept concessions and wants to stick to his insane demands, I don't know if those are things Ukraine could even realistically do.

I post critically in this and other threads not because I dislike Ukraine or love Russia, but because this is a forum filled with a lot of westerners and the perception of this war, in my opinion, in this thread and in much of our media there is an unrealistic and uncritical look at the war and I think that has problems not only for the discourse in this thread but wider implications about how we might respond to the conflict.

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Saint Kyivanka posted:

Find that ambulance video to complain about yet?

Do you......understand what he was talking about? This 'joke' doesn't make sense. I'm not sure you know what was being referenced.

Saint Kyivanka
Mar 1, 2022

Patron Saint of SA

ronya posted:

I would respect the "you're facing impossible odds you should just give up and save your people's lives by compromising now" takes more if I saw it applied consistently when it comes to anti-imperialist resistances that are popular in the forum.

Yeah - I'm legitimately torn on it, because on one hand, it should be about saving as many lives as possible.

But knowing how Russia cracks down on the LGBQT community, dissidents, murders political foes, etc., there's the possibility of so much suffering, that it doesn't seem unreasonable for Ukraine to continue to fight on. Especially given that Russia signed treaties recognizing Ukraine's sovereignty.

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

Baronjutter posted:

I had a friend who was crew on some billionaires yacht. The dude would only ever be on his yacht like maybe a couple weeks a year, at best. Otherwise it and the crew of about a dozen people would be paid, full time, to sail around the world to essentially be on-hand if this dude wanted to use the yacht for entertaining. So they'd be in Florida and get the word that he was heading to Italy in a few weeks so fuel and provision up and set sail. They'd reach italy and be given a budget of like 10k to buy the finest food and drink and be ready to host lavish parties. The next day it would turn out their owner in fact changed his mind about Italy and went to Paris instead and will be heading to his condo in NYC after so get back over the atlantic to meet him there.

The crew was very well paid and they basically just got to party on this boat while drinking and eating the finest food and doing mountains of coke. But the absolute insane amount of waste and wealth to so casually be able to afford having such a vessel and crew on full time standby is just unbelievable.

I made a terrible career choice :smith:

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Ciprian Maricon posted:

I would like to see the conflict end sooner rather than later (and im sure you do too), if that means Ukraine giving Putin enough concessions that he can return home with the ability to lie about meeting his incredible undefined and crazy goals, that would seem better to me than a continued bloody conflict. Ultimately though its not up to me and not up to Ukraine entirely either, if Putin is really unwilling to accept concessions and wants to stick to his insane demands, I don't know if those are things Ukraine could even realistically do.

I post critically in this and other threads not because I dislike Ukraine or love Russia, but because this is a forum filled with a lot of westerners and the perception of this war, in my opinion, in this thread and in much of our media has an unrealistic and uncritical look at the war and I think that has problems not only for the discourse in this thread but wider implications about how we might respond to the conflict.

I'd just like to say this is roughly where I land as well, so thank you for this. People tend to latch onto people posting critically as 'concern trolling', but in reality I just read the thread and post when there's something I disagree with or think is worth clarifying/talking about with someone. I don't reply to all the posts I read and nod my head at because I have nothing interesting to add, and find the sort of livewatch/youtube reaction posting to be really boring to me.


Whatever makes people the safest, and stops more from being killed, I think its fair to say we all want that.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Would help if that seemed to even remotely square up with what the Ukranian people appear to want

KittyEmpress
Dec 30, 2012

Jam Buddies

I'm in a few chats with Ukranian folks willing to talk about this poo poo, and the prevailing sentiment they've (four separate individuals, so not huge) given me is that they don't trust Russia at all. Like from the very beginning there was an air of 'if Russia wins and takes us over, we will be second class citizens and our cultural identity will be destroyed by force'. There's a lot of historical context to this apparently.

But this has only gotten worse as sentiment has moved towards 'Putin is very angry about being embarrassed by not being able to take us over in a single week, now he will personally make an example of everyone he can.' So even as things take turns for the worse and civilians die and cities burn, there's an (apparent) feeling that resistance is at least the path of the least damage, because at least people are having time to flee.

Crespolini
Mar 9, 2014

Saint Kyivanka posted:

Find that ambulance video to complain about yet?

This made a lot of sense in your head, huh.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Onto your broader accusation, however - I think it’s senseless to treat every single Russian conscript as an inhumane monster, even if they’re waging war in Ukraine. Individual mutiny could easily have severe consequences for them and their family.

No.


Every single Russian solider in Ukraine at this minute should either stop doing what they are doing, or surrender themselves to the nearest local Ukrainian authorities. There are 5 year old's arrested and in jail and going to be made orphans because they held up a Peace sign in Moscow. There are 10's of Russian soldiers who have already surrendered. There are 100's of innocents who are going to be killed in the next day. There are 1 million refugee's right now internal and external and NOT ONE RUSSIAN SOLIDER CAN CLAIM THEY WERE JUST FOLLOWING ORDERS.

This war is unprovoked, unjustified and illegal. Do not attempt to defend this.

So NO, it is not senseless to treat every single Russian conscript as an inhumane monster. Because even if they have not committed a crime yet, it is impossible for them to not commit a crime by their very presence in Ukraine. They WILL have to something, at some point, that will harm or murder innocents. Unless they stand down or refuse an order to do so, they will have to do something to further the aims of this war.

No one who thinks otherwise should be in a position to moderate or condemn any discussion in this thread, this board, or this forum.


Comrade.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
The only non suffering answer is for Putin to leave immediately. It is not "out with the old boss in with the new." Putin will find retribution. A lot of Ukrainians are fighting for their lives. Asking them to lay down their weapons is insane.

Runaktla
Feb 21, 2007

by Hand Knit
More or less this is what I understand from my extended family members that are near Lviv.

kaaj
Jun 23, 2013

don't stop, carry on.
A Russian friend told me that

> (Russian) Government promised to provide tax break for 3 years for IT companies, not to call for army service IT specialists and mortgage benefits for them.

It made us wonder how many IT specialists left / will leave the country. Anybody who has a chance of leaving and would decide to stay would really be making a massive gamble.

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Would help if that seemed to even remotely square up with what the Ukranian people appear to want

Well I assume they'd like people to stop dying, and to be safe, but I suppose you're right, none of us can be sure. I think its also pretty safe to say that what they want isn't to all die, either. They're fighting to protect their country. Ideally they'd win, and everything would be returned to them, this would be the best outcome!

but like, realistically, I feel like this ends with some sort of grim diplomatic compromise. what that looks like I don't know, and whatever they have to sacrifice for peace will be too much, but I don't think its horrible, or 'supporting russia' to acknowledge that its a lovely possibility.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013
The last near peer conventional war the world saw was the Iran Iraq war. The Iraqi blitzkrieg gave way to 8 years of slaughter involving chemical weapons and eventually child soldiers, and after hundreds of thousands died the borders ended up where they were day zero. One possible fate of this war.

Saint Kyivanka
Mar 1, 2022

Patron Saint of SA

Ciprian Maricon posted:

I would like to see the conflict end sooner rather than later (and im sure you do too), if that means Ukraine giving Putin enough concessions that he can return home with the ability to lie about meeting his incredible undefined and crazy goals, that would seem better to me than a continued bloody conflict. Ultimately though its not up to me and not up to Ukraine entirely either, if Putin is really unwilling to accept concessions and wants to stick to his insane demands, I don't know if those are things Ukraine could even realistically do.

I post critically in this and other threads not because I dislike Ukraine or love Russia, but because this is a forum filled with a lot of westerners and the perception of this war, in my opinion, in this thread and in much of our media there is an unrealistic and uncritical look at the war and I think that has problems not only for the discourse in this thread but wider implications about how we might respond to the conflict.

At this point it seems as if nothing short of a complete overthrow of the existing Ukrainian government is going to suffice for Putin. He will also then be in position to demand reparations, etc., for which we don't know what his "asking price" will be.

Regarding the perception in the thread, I think people confuse the temporary respite of seeing Ukrainian victories and pushback, with posters' belief that Ukraine can win this war. I don't think anyone truly thinks that Ukraine can hold out for that much longer or defeat Russia? It seems more that as updates are provided that s how Ukraine having some mild success, it's that much more chance/hope that Russia may actually, honestly consider a ceasefire. Is it likely? No. But it makes for a greater argument that any possible regime change that Moscow pushes for, isn't desired by the populace.

So from that perspective, it can get frustrating when other posters come in to criticize or deflate any positive news. If we see 10 Russian tanks get destroyed, that's 10 less tanks attacking Ukraine's military or civilian areas. I think most recognize that there are still several hundred tanks involved in the engagement, still pushing forward.


Varinn posted:

Do you......understand what he was talking about? This 'joke' doesn't make sense. I'm not sure you know what was being referenced.
Yeah, I did. And I agree with his sentiment, especially having read your C-spam posts and how you selectively respond in this thread. If you want Ukrainian to be a puppet state of Russia, just say so. Don't couch it in concern trolling and what about-ism.


Edit:

Varinn posted:

I just read the thread and post when there's something I disagree with or think is worth clarifying/talking about with someone.
It just happens to 95% be focused on Ukraine and not Russia.

Video of Russia sending a missile into an apartment complex: :crickets:
Video of a Ukrainian unit most disagree with, making a statement that everyone agrees is a warcrime: "My god, how can Ukraine allow these people to fight for them!?!?! It reflects poorly on the Ukrainian armed forces!"

Saint Kyivanka fucked around with this message at 08:12 on Mar 3, 2022

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Comstar posted:

No.


Every single Russian solider in Ukraine at this minute should either stop doing what they are doing, or surrender themselves to the nearest local Ukrainian authorities. There are 5 year old's arrested and in jail and going to be made orphans because they held up a Peace sign in Moscow. There are 10's of Russian soldiers who have already surrendered. There are 100's of innocents who are going to be killed in the next day. There are 1 million refugee's right now internal and external and NOT ONE RUSSIAN SOLIDER CAN CLAIM THEY WERE JUST FOLLOWING ORDERS.

This war is unprovoked, unjustified and illegal. Do not attempt to defend this.

So NO, it is not senseless to treat every single Russian conscript as an inhumane monster. Because even if they have not committed a crime yet, it is impossible for them to not commit a crime by their very presence in Ukraine. They WILL have to something, at some point, that will harm or murder innocents. Unless they stand down or refuse an order to do so, they will have to do something to further the aims of this war.

No one who thinks otherwise should be in a position to moderate or condemn any discussion in this thread, this board, or this forum.


Comrade.

I think that guys still a loving rear end in a top hat, but this post is insane. The Nuremberg defense was specifically used by high ranking officers and guys who made Nazi policy. It has little relevance to rank and file soldiers, unless of course they are committing war crimes. It is an illegal war, but war is uhhhh generally illegal by default. This is why we have strict rules of engagement.

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Saint Kyivanka posted:

Yeah, I did. And I agree with his sentiment, especially having read your C-spam posts and how you selectively respond in this thread. If you want Ukrainian to be a puppet state of Russia, just say so. Don't couch it in concern trolling and what about-ism.

I don't. Wow, that was easy! You can PM me what joke you thought you were making, above, so we don't clog up the thread. I'd love to hear how that worked in your head.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Varinn posted:

Well I assume they'd like people to stop dying, and to be safe, but I suppose you're right, none of us can be sure. I think its also pretty safe to say that what they want isn't to all die, either. They're fighting to protect their country. Ideally they'd win, and everything would be returned to them, this would be the best outcome!

but like, realistically, I feel like this ends with some sort of grim diplomatic compromise. what that looks like I don't know, and whatever they have to sacrifice for peace will be too much, but I don't think its horrible, or 'supporting russia' to acknowledge that its a lovely possibility.

You're probably right that this only ends through some diplomatic compromise. Russian messaging (both publicly and more indirectly) has created a situation where there's effectively zero incentive for most Ukranians to ever stop fighting. On Russian social media you'll see everyone fighting for Ukraine denounced as nazis/freikorps/vulkssturm and the explicit plan, according to Russia, is to fully purge Ukraine of Nazis. This does not leave any offramp. Even some guy who just wants his neighborhood defended is branded as vulkssturm. Idk what the solution is ultimately, but as it stands there's zero way most ukranians who are currently fighting or planning to fight to see giving in as something that doesn't just lead to Russia cleansing them [russia's word, not mine] basically to the last man or woman. In Russia's own words: the goal is to fully eliminate every last Nazi from ukraine and no one on either side believes that this is specifically limited to just Azov.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 08:13 on Mar 3, 2022

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

Saint Kyivanka posted:

Regarding the perception in the thread, I think people confuse the temporary respite of seeing Ukrainian victories and pushback, with posters' belief that Ukraine can win this war. I don't think anyone truly thinks that Ukraine can hold out for that much longer or defeat Russia? It seems more that as updates are provided that s how Ukraine having some mild success, it's that much more chance/hope that Russia may actually, honestly consider a ceasefire. Is it likely? No. But it makes for a greater argument that any possible regime change that Moscow pushes for, isn't desired by the populace.

There's 40 million people (well, less 1 million refugees now, and another 3-13 who are going to leave in the next 6 months if it keeps going that long) vs 200,000 Russian troops. The USA at the height of it's power, could not control Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam either, for the same reasons. Any "regime" they put in power will be a puppet, and a puppet it will collapse when the hand controlling it is taken away. Much like when the USSR lost all of Eastern Europe.

And Ukraine is getting 100's of modern, top of the line weapons from the their open west border. While Russia's entire economy will collapse in less than 3 months. Russia will run out tanks,. before Ukraine runs out of Javelins.


Russia cannot win now. Like nearly every other insurgency vs an imperial power in the last 100 years, they can only delay their defeat.

uncleTomOfFinland
May 25, 2008

kaaj posted:

A Russian friend told me that

> (Russian) Government promised to provide tax break for 3 years for IT companies, not to call for army service IT specialists and mortgage benefits for them.

It made us wonder how many IT specialists left / will leave the country. Anybody who has a chance of leaving and would decide to stay would really be making a massive gamble.

Working in Finnish/Euro IT it really does feel that every even half competent Russian has come over the fence and are not returning any time soon.

One new Russian employee had her self-introduction last Friday and she seemed just to about to cry. :sigh:

Vorenus
Jul 14, 2013

Varinn posted:

Well I assume they'd like people to stop dying, and to be safe, but I suppose you're right, none of us can be sure. I think its also pretty safe to say that what they want isn't to all die, either. They're fighting to protect their country. Ideally they'd win, and everything would be returned to them, this would be the best outcome!

but like, realistically, I feel like this ends with some sort of grim diplomatic compromise. what that looks like I don't know, and whatever they have to sacrifice for peace will be too much, but I don't think its horrible, or 'supporting russia' to acknowledge that its a lovely possibility.

I can't speak for the Ukrainian people, but it seems like many of them would rather die fighting/resisting than submit to Putin and live under a despot while hoping their names aren't on any of his lists. Have you considered going to Ukraine to convince them of the benefits of submission to the Motherland in person?

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

Yep this tracks, and quite consistent with the mood across the Baltics and the wider Eastern Europe too, from what I'm gathering - there's a certain understanding that the message from the Russian state is you're next. Hence the severity of sanctions and all the weapon deliveries and that entire foreign legion thing.

I am quite, uh, I don't know, disappointed, I guess? by the prevailing "plucky Ukraine, David vs Goliah, haha look at these silly Russians stuck in mud lol" narrative that's so prevalent in Western media. For one, I don't think it does a sufficiently-good job at presenting the unfortunate reality of just how bad things are going for the Ukrainian military (for all their much-reposted tactical victories), and it kinda downplays the severity and the ramifications of these events (hence all the idiot checkmarks calling for the no-fly zone). This is only going to get worse, and no amount of feel-good stories will turn it around.

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Herstory Begins Now posted:

You're probably right that this only ends through some diplomatic compromise. Russian messaging (both publicly and more indirectly) has created a situation where there's effectively zero incentive for most Ukranians to ever stop fighting. On Russian social media you'll see everyone fighting for Ukraine denounced as nazis/freikorps/vulkssturm and the explicit plan, according to Russia, is to fully purge Ukraine of Nazis. This does not leave any offramp. Even some guy who just wants his neighborhood defended is branded as vulkssturm. Idk what the solution is ultimately, but as it stands there's zero way most ukranians who are currently fighting or planning to fight to see giving in as something that doesn't just lead to Russia cleansing them [russia's word, not mine] basically to the last man or woman.

Genuinely, do you have a source for that last bit? I don't think I've seen Russia saying they're going to ethnically cleanse the entire country. If anything, their initial approach to the war seemed counter to that. I remember seeing the stories about them saying they were going to root out 'democratic elements' or whatever, which again still extremely bad, but seemed to me more like they were going to do the thing of purging government officials and notable nationalists.

but like, I think executions and repression of dissidents is very different from active genocide. they're both evil but like, our reactions to them as international entities would be very different.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Varinn posted:

Genuinely, do you have a source for that last bit? I don't think I've seen Russia saying they're going to ethnically cleanse the entire country. If anything, their initial approach to the war seemed counter to that. I remember seeing the stories about them saying they were going to root out 'democratic elements' or whatever, which again still extremely bad, but seemed to me more like they were going to do the thing of purging government officials and notable nationalists.

but like, I think executions and repression of dissidents is very different from active genocide. they're both evil but like, our reactions to them as international entities would be very different.

Sorry, I could've been clearer: cleansing, as used in official russian communications/strategy doesn't mean ethnically cleanse, it just means... cleanse, like totally remove all resistance at a door to door level. To be clear, it does have a pretty horrific association along the lines of 'executions and repression of dissidents,' to use your words above.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 08:23 on Mar 3, 2022

Saint Kyivanka
Mar 1, 2022

Patron Saint of SA

Comstar posted:

There's 40 million people (well, less 1 million refugees now, and another 3-13 who are going to leave in the next 6 months if it keeps going that long) vs 200,000 Russian troops. The USA at the height of it's power, could not control Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam either, for the same reasons. Any "regime" they put in power will be a puppet, and a puppet it will collapse when the hand controlling it is taken away. Much like when the USSR lost all of Eastern Europe.

And Ukraine is getting 100's of modern, top of the line weapons from the their open west border. While Russia's entire economy will collapse in less than 3 months. Russia will run out tanks,. before Ukraine runs out of Javelins.


Russia cannot win now. Like nearly every other insurgency vs an imperial power in the last 100 years, they can only delay their defeat.
My honest fear is that for as long as Putin is alive, he will just keep sending in the military to suppress anything regardless of the cost, as we're seeing now. And since he's surrounded himself by people loyal to him, and loaded up the government with individuals of similar mindset, it makes for even serious long-term concern even once he is no longer in power, however that occurs.

I basically do not see how Russia changes long-term without open revolution.


nurmie posted:

Yep this tracks, and quite consistent with the mood across the Baltics and the wider Eastern Europe too, from what I'm gathering - there's a certain understanding that the message from the Russian state is you're next. Hence the severity of sanctions and all the weapon deliveries and that entire foreign legion thing.

I am quite, uh, I don't know, disappointed, I guess? by the prevailing "plucky Ukraine, David vs Goliah, haha look at these silly Russians stuck in mud lol" narrative that's so prevalent in Western media. For one, I don't think it does a sufficiently-good job at presenting the unfortunate reality of just how bad things are going for the Ukrainian military (for all their much-reposted tactical victories), and it kinda downplays the severity and the ramifications of these events (hence all the idiot checkmarks calling for the no-fly zone). This is only going to get worse, and no amount of feel-good stories will turn it around.

This goes back to the concept though of how do people want to handle this? We're leveraging substantial sanctions against Russia, and Putin isn't giving a drat. At the moment, no one seems to be taking a stand in Russia against him.

So the change has to occur by either Putin being removed from power, whatever that may take, or direct confrontation with the US and other countries directly intervening militarily, with all of the possible escalations that we have discussed.

Mans
Sep 14, 2011

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Saint Kyivanka posted:

I don't think that a million Ukrainian veterans taking up rifles in place of their Army is ideal either, but I also don't think Ukraine has a whole lot of options in terms of defending itself otherwise. Sometimes you take the help where you can get it.

If you think they should give up and surrender, than say so, because besides defending themselves, that's about the only option they otherwise have. And Putin appears likely to want to try and divide the country up based upon what we saw come out of Belarus and what has been seemingly-accurate intelligence.

So they're in a war for the country's very existence that, short of outside direct military intervention, they are likely going to lose. And the country of Ukraine as we all currently know it, is going to cease to exist because of a power-hungry piece of poo poo in Moscow.

Edit: And a lot of people seem to be ok with that, and just saying "Goodbye Ukraine", which is probably what will happen in the next few weeks/months.

At the same time, I want to see Russia pay for this, and I want to see them pay for it long and hard for a very long time.

How noble of you to be willing to sacrifice a million Ukrainian civilians armed with rifles, nobly engaging mechanized Russian columns supported by airstrikes and artillery.

There are a lot of terrible options the Ukrainians have in this conflict and there are a lot of potentially good options to use a million angry and motivated Ukrainians in the future in the case of a violent occupation, but Jesus Christ arming a million civilians with whatever you can find and throwing them into the frontlines because you have an absolutely terrible concept of how a disorganized Red army resisted the Axis offensive is ridiculous.

The role of professional armies is to fight. The role of civilians is explicitly not to fight and hopefully not get caught in a conflict.

hump day bitches! posted:


I thought the human wave stuff was nazi propaganda ?

It was nazi propaganda at being beaten and also the American psyche after seeing Japanese banzai chargings and equating Chinese infiltration tactics with it. They had no idea that the Chinese army was expert in penetrating enemy lines unseen and attacking at close range from multiple angles and assumed they simply overwhelmed their positions with bodies, because that was what the Japanese did on their notorious suicidal charges.

This led to weirder US mentalities about Asians in general and how they don't value personal life which they carried into Vietnam with terrible consequences.

studio mujahideen
May 3, 2005

Vorenus posted:

I can't speak for the Ukrainian people, but it seems like many of them would rather die fighting/resisting than submit to Putin and live under a despot while hoping their names aren't on any of his lists. Have you considered going to Ukraine to convince them of the benefits of submission to the Motherland in person?

It kinda sounds like you want that to happen, my man. I don't want ukraine to be annexed by russia, but I also think the complete eradication of the ukrainian people is extremely bad. Again, ideally Russia would just up and leave! That's what I want, too! But assigning an entire nation this sort of death drive is pretty hosed up.

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OgNar
Oct 26, 2002

They tapdance not, neither do they fart
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1499211278925152261

https://www.facebook.com/minprosvet/posts/316832763811506



e: Oh this was hours ago, likely posted.
sorry

OgNar fucked around with this message at 08:25 on Mar 3, 2022

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