|
ronya posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1501860500224847873 I agree, and am increasingly convinced that Russia was operating on the assumption (maybe even actively counting on) that France and Germany would intervene during the run-up to the invasion and force Ukraine into accepting a pro-Russian settlement, in a glorious triumph of EU diplomacy that drives another wedge between them and the perfidious Angloids. Germany because of gas dependency, pacifism, 'Russia-understanding', and a desire to demonstrate an EU-led response given damage done by Trump and Brexit. France because of desire to see France as a renewed great power leading a European response, plus Macron egotistically wanting to be seen as a great statesman who led France in preventing a war (with upcoming Presidential elections in mind). I also pick up on the same confusion from external commentators about EU/US ties. There really does seem to be an assumption amongst many Indian and Chinese foreign policy commentators that France/Germany (and so by extension the EU) naturally 'belong' with Russia and should be aligned with them - especially with respect to security relationships (almost hinting at times that Russia should be their security guarantor) - against the Angloid menace. Whilst there are obviously a heck of a lot transatlantic tensions (Trump, Iraq, Afghanistan, the list goes on and on) I find it hard to understand why they feel this way, as it seems to me that EU countries have very strong alignment of underlying interests and values (commitment to Western 'rules-based' order, maintaining stability of overseas trade lanes, benefits of NATO standardisation, Western identities/culture, democracy, human rights/LBTQ+, etc) versus the increasing divergence of interests/values with rsepect to Russia. Really feels like there is some wishful thinking going on. I guess that's not uncommon from Western commentators either though. Plenty of trash wishful thinking articles about India/China etc that completely ignore local context/perspectives.
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:26
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 07:34 |
|
|
CeeJee posted:This bit from Alexander Nevzorov a year ago is eerily prescient, the image of someone pretending to be a piano virtuoso and everyone buying into it until an actual piano is put under his fingers is striking.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:27
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:Possibly, but that just looks like someone did a google maps search for "apartments crimea" and posted the results. Just checked https://kvadom.com/en/apartments-for-sale-republic-of-crimea and they had 588 results. Basically could of stuck a pin anywhere in the map would of found something for sale apparently. But yeah unless the FSB use Linkedin, and that includes home addresses seems like it's impossible for anyone to check. The fact that, that map doesn't even show everything for sale, and doesn't really back up what she's saying anyway, makes it seem very suss.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:31
|
|
|
ronya posted:ik edit:  just some tanks on a trip, until suddenly explosions
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:31
|
|
drone bombing tank convoy
|
Chalks posted:Yeah, it's the point where he goes from talking about the current situation to making wild predictions about what the consequences will be where it goes a bit wild. He clearly had an extremely good idea about the state of the Russian military and their approach to this war. His description of the current situation was considered a wild prediction back in April 2021. Most people assumed Putin was just grandstanding and blustering, for annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk and international appeasement, but ultimately unwilling to destroy the status quo. All bets are off now, there's too many variables in play. Unfortunately we are living in interesting times.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:37
|
|
|
A tale of two post-meeting press conferences Thread for Russian Foreign Minister https://twitter.com/EvaHartog/status/1501863499546382340?t=bMyhwm6MbBtQM0VbXnMEfA&s=19 Thread for Ukrainian Foreign Minister https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1501861898953891840?t=fZ7UYYt_lFT5SRkMvTvmHQ&s=19 Seems to be consensus among the media that Lavrov never had any power to make agreements during this meeting. Meanwhile France and Germany still trying with Putin https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1501881974285295621?t=EDUfs65ptMu8E680w9fj6g&s=19 Fruitlessly
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:41
|
|
|
dr_rat posted:Just checked https://kvadom.com/en/apartments-for-sale-republic-of-crimea and they had 588 results. Basically could of stuck a pin anywhere in the map would of found something for sale apparently. But yeah unless the FSB use Linkedin, and that includes home addresses seems like it's impossible for anyone to check. The fact that, that map doesn't even show everything for sale, and doesn't really back up what she's saying anyway, makes it seem very suss. I'm reasonably sure I saw the same exact map in an Ukrainian tweet yesterday, which did not make the FSB claim, but, instead, referred to Russians as goats (which is why I remember the tweet in the first place).
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:49
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Meanwhile France and Germany still trying with Putin I wonder if Putin interprets these calls as signs he's moments from total victory. Like, "They're asking for peace! We're winning! Push on!".
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:53
|
|
|
Tigey posted:
Yeah, I suspect like there's a fundamental split that Ukraine is on one side of, and Russia is on the other, that's very obvious to Americans and Europeans but not obvious at all to Russia. One theory is that it's racial (Putin sees Ukrainians as a minority; Europe sees them as just more white people), another is that it's economic (the Ukrainian economy has been really strongly integrated with the west over the past decade), other theories too.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:53
|
|
|
Xarn posted:
How can you line up like this in a war zone? It's like shooting fish in a barrel. Insane incompetence. There's a translation of a communication intercept here. The regiment's commanding officer was taken out, but there's still no excuse for that dreadful performance.   Tanks explodinghttps://mobile.twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1501836288319762436 Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 13:57 on Mar 10, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:54
|
|
|
Such a tragedy that the Belarussian coup happened. Outside of the tragedy of a regime change for the sake of Belarus itself, If Lukashenko had not been in power, Russia would've had to invade Belarus first, or invade on a much narrower front, without the ability to flank Kyiv. Another lesson from this invasion should be that simply shrugging off coups and the establishment of vassal states, is not a good idea. I really hope Belarus gets out of this as an independent nation somehow.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:57
|
|
|
Tigey posted:I agree, and am increasingly convinced that Russia was operating on the assumption (maybe even actively counting on) that France and Germany would intervene during the run-up to the invasion and force Ukraine into accepting a pro-Russian settlement, in a glorious triumph of EU diplomacy that drives another wedge between them and the perfidious Angloids. The idea that Germany and France should be in some kind of 19th century Russian imperial sphere is absolutely hilarious and demonstrates a total lack of understanding of modern European realities. France and Germany together have the same population as Russia, but also much larger economies, functioning and stable states, functioning, healthy and stable societies, etc. Might as well talk about Nigerian or Indonesian hegemony over Japan or something. Completely decoupled from reality.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 13:57
|
|
|
It is funny to see Eastern media and commentators think language trumps values. I have no doubt as soon as they saw the west rally together the way they did, they all poo poo their pants. Taiwan certainly can sleep a little easier.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:03
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:The idea that Germany and France should be in some kind of 19th century Russian imperial sphere is absolutely hilarious and demonstrates a total lack of understanding of modern European realities. France and Germany together have the same population as Russia, but also much larger economies, functioning and stable states, functioning, healthy and stable societies, etc. Might as well talk about Nigerian or Indonesian hegemony over Japan or something. Completely decoupled from reality. Indeed - and the combined population and economy of the EU/EEC makes the idea even more absurd. Benelux, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, etc. - these combined have larger economies than Russia. The former Warsaw Pact members now in EU/EEC are likely a combined greater force than Russia on their own. The Kremlin elite is really living in a weird revanchist place of magical thinking. Dugin's book talks about Russia needing to dismantle China (!) and annex Tibet plus Mongolia. That's a completely bizarre notion. It would be like Quebec planning to dismantle the US.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:05
|
|
|
I wonder what the gently caress do you even talk about at these summits. After asking for your conditions and getting told to bugger off, what is there to do?
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:05
|
|
|
Xerxes17 posted:I wonder what the gently caress do you even talk about at these summits. After asking for your conditions and getting told to bugger off, what is there to do? Well, the Ukranians kinda have to show up to them, but it seems Lavrov is just pushing the usual surrender line. Seems they wanted to talk about humanitarian things and Lavrov was just on his usual poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:06
|
|
|
Captain Kosmos posted:They are still moving around like they are in a parade or some poo poo. If Ukrainians had artillery available and the tanks haven't been in the middle of the town they would have completely destroyed that convoy. Just incredible Narrator alleges that the the albums had UA tanks, artillery, and drones all firing at them. Not entirely clear where that happened going by the video, though.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:11
|
|
|
Panzeh posted:Well, the Ukranians kinda have to show up to them, but it seems Lavrov is just pushing the usual surrender line. Seems they wanted to talk about humanitarian things and Lavrov was just on his usual poo poo. Sure I can understand showing up, but after sitting down and asking "Are you willing to stop this madness yet?" and getting told no, what can you possibly talk about? As you say the Ukrainians were talking about humanitarian things, but I'm just picturing them having two parallel conversations because the Russian contingent is in fantasy land.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:11
|
|
|
ronya posted:ik edit: The thing that sticks out to me at 0:22 was the very obvious TOS-1 there. I'm surprised that wasn't Target number one for a TB-2 or something, even if they waited for it to drive out of the civvie area first.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:14
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:The idea that Germany and France should be in some kind of 19th century Russian imperial sphere is absolutely hilarious and demonstrates a total lack of understanding of modern European realities. France and Germany together have the same population as Russia, but also much larger economies, functioning and stable states, functioning, healthy and stable societies, etc. Might as well talk about Nigerian or Indonesian hegemony over Japan or something. Completely decoupled from reality. That, and the Franco-German alliance would quite prefer to have its own power bloc. Neither nation is particularly shy about that. I guess from an outsider's perspective it's hard to see how much EU countries have been using the EU as a vehicle to creep their influence around the world, since it's much more subtle. There aren't Eurofighters bombing the middle east every day, but if Germany pulls out of a country factories slowly stop working…
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:14
|
|
|
Xerxes17 posted:Sure I can understand showing up, but after sitting down and asking "Are you willing to stop this madness yet?" and getting told no, what can you possibly talk about? As you say the Ukrainians were talking about humanitarian things, but I'm just picturing them having two parallel conversations because the Russian contingent is in fantasy land. The negotiations aren't the point of this conference - its all theatre at this stage. As you say, no negotiating is going on, its just publically restating positions. Visibly having a conference is the point of the conference. Both sides want to show they are interested in a peaceful resolution and are totally reasonable. Being unwilling to meet/discuss makes you look bad/unreasonable, and taking part in farcical meetings is a very low cost to pay to mitigate it (compared to say, not shelling kindergartens and hospitals).
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:16
|
|
|
Big kaboom in Kyiv oblast https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501880218348404744?t=shRWlPvlwIvc8dVhVycsrg&s=19 Not sure what it was yet, though there is footage of a Bayraktar blowing up an antiair SAM launcher, or could have been one of the TOS systems Also reportedly Ukraine destroyed an Iskanser launcher https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1501881432179945475?t=xG0GHIiinjxvgE61m0zGqg&s=19 Good. Edited for accuracy
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:17
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:Stalin managed to fix it. But he also had a war to keep the competent generals busy and then quickly exiled them when the war was over. unknown posted:Canadian military is known as the logistics experts in the world and is in high demand because of it. Gort posted:Presumably a bunch of Javelin users get shot, hit by artillery, air strikes and so on. As a former tanker/cav guy, that Twitter post purporting to show the Russian 6th Tank Regiment getting ambushed is just depressing. They're all clustered up, no infantry out, heck, even turrets aren't looking in different directions to pull security. It's just loving amateur hour. I'm glad for  sake, of course. But seriously: gently caress Putin for sending a bunch of untrained kids to their deaths for no good reason.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:17
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:This is worth highlighting. After the summer of 1941 Stalin listened to his generals and started letting them run the operational aspects of the war. He kept very close eye on things--STAVKA was basically down the hall from him the entire war--but he mostly contented himself with firing generals who weren't winning, and promoting those who were. Putin could yet do the same, and then we may see better Russian operational performance. It was more like "late autumn 1942". Up until Operation Uranus it was pretty common for Stalin to say "we need to strike NOW", STAVKA would look at the maps, say that units that were ment to be used in the attack are not completely deployed or organized yet, and would get "Red Army officers are cowards, and that's why foreign occupiers are still in our land, attack now". And that's how you end up with 4 Kotluban offensives...
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:24
|
|
|
PederP posted:Indeed - and the combined population and economy of the EU/EEC makes the idea even more absurd. Benelux, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, etc. - these combined have larger economies than Russia. The former Warsaw Pact members now in EU/EEC are likely a combined greater force than Russia on their own. A lot of it seems to just generally come down to classic magical thinking about ‘Will’ and ‘national ethnic superiority’ when you dig into it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:24
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:The idea that Germany and France should be in some kind of 19th century Russian imperial sphere is absolutely hilarious and demonstrates a total lack of understanding of modern European realities. France and Germany together have the same population as Russia, but also much larger economies, functioning and stable states, functioning, healthy and stable societies, etc. Might as well talk about Nigerian or Indonesian hegemony over Japan or something. Completely decoupled from reality. I don't think Putin has this idea. From reading about the issue, Putin views the West as Russia's rival and that rivalry as the natural state of the world. While he rejects communism, he was personally very wounded by the end of the Cold War and what it meant for the Russian state (vassalage to the West). To Putin, the EU/NATO is just an extension of American hegemony. He can't accept a world where Russia doesn't have a buffer of puppet states with increasingly imaginary cultural ties to Russia.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:26
|
|
|
CeeJee posted:This bit from Alexander Nevzorov a year ago is eerily prescient, the image of someone pretending to be a piano virtuoso and everyone buying into it until an actual piano is put under his fingers is striking. I like Nevzorov, he has a sharp mind and sharp tongue. I am also biased because ever since 2020 he ended his every radio speech with Жыве Беларусь
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:30
|
|
|
Sodomy Hussein posted:I don't think Putin has this idea. From reading about the issue, Putin views the West as Russia's rival and that rivalry as the natural state of the world. While he rejects communism, he was personally very wounded by the end of the Cold War and what it meant for the Russian state (vassalage to the West). To Putin, the EU/NATO is just an extension of American hegemony. He can't accept a world where Russia doesn't have a buffer of puppet states with increasingly imaginary cultural ties to Russia. They are talking about Asian pundits.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:31
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Putin could yet do the same, and then we may see better Russian operational performance. Does this matter if the idiots in charge before you have spunked all the good gear and trained men up the wall and now your economy is in the shitter and you aren't getting any more fancy tanks?
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:32
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:What the gently caress do they expect to gain from dribbling so much bullshit? Do they even believe it themselves? They are going the Ribbentrop/Goebbels propaganda route.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:34
|
|
|
I remember that Z on every vehicle from a comic strip from In 1961. a mad professor who claims ownership of all the planets in the solar system. To realize his plans, he has invented a ray that hypnotizes everyone. At the end, he launches a whole battery of rockets to the moon to draw a Z on the moon or something. But it goes wrong and writes coca cola.   
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:39
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:Stalin managed to fix it. But he also had a war to keep the competent generals busy and then quickly exiled them when the war was over. The difference here may be one of time. How long did it take Stalin to turn the war around? How long does Putin have at this rate to turn this war around, before he runs out of army to be turned around, or his nation gets absolutely paralyzed by sanctions? A month? Two at the outside? There's no lend-lease coming to give Putin the time and materiel he needs to turn this poo poo around.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:41
|
|
|
Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/antontroian/status/1501864565868535815 Saying "we won't attack other countries, and we didn't attack Ukraine" is kind of ballsy double speak. I think I would have followed up with, "do you plan on not attacking other countries in same way you didn't attack Ukraine?"
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:43
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:Saying "we won't attack other countries, and we didn't attack Ukraine" is kind of ballsy double speak. I think I would have followed up with, "do you plan on not attacking other countries in same way you didn't attack Ukraine?" Its even funnier as he is saying that to the country selling Ukraine the UAVs currently wiping out their armor.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:44
|
|
|
Interesting choice of number for country definitely not joining NATO, to avoid disturbing the “fragile situation”. https://twitter.com/nicrolander/status/1501851109861826562
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:44
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:The difference here may be one of time. How long did it take Stalin to turn the war around? Putin has vast quantities of equipment. What condition it’s in or if it can even be moved to the front in a reasonable time frame are different questions. He doesn’t need lend lease. He needs train tables and maintenance crews.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:44
|
|
|
mrfart posted:I remember that Z on every vehicle from a comic strip from In 1961. This comic ruled. Favorite episodes was always those with Zafir... apparently Zorglub in english and french too. I remember it as the plan was to write coca cola on the moon though, but since his henchmen write and talk backwards the coca cola logo was mirrored or something. edit: 
His Divine Shadow fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Mar 10, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:46
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/vesti_news/status/1501839572455641090 Russian propaganda is going for “bat coronavirus” experiments set up by America in Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:47
|
|
|
Looking a bit at social media in Kazakhstan, they're (in a positive way) surprisingly pro-Ukraine. I think that this invasion dragging on and the war crimes piling up, isn't just hurting the Russian economy, military and ability to even co-exist peacefully with Ukraine and western neighbors - it's also turning public opinion against them across Central Asia. The sanctions are also sending waves of economic refugees from Russia into Kazakhstan, and I imagine the government there is working 24/7 on figuring out how to avoid Russia trying to use them as an economic proxy towards the West (as this was cause sanctions to hit them as well), while also making the most of the current situation. While China is obviously poised to profit from Russian economic ties/dependency, Kazakhstan is also uniquely positioning to gain from this. And I'm pretty sure they do not want the Russians to just annex them once they're either booted from Ukraine or manage to annex the ashes. So the clock Putin is on, isn't just about the internal economy and the invasion becoming unsustainable to supply/reinforce, it's also about not pushing away the Central Asian republics. They were pretty ok with being in the Russian sphere of influence through military and economic dependence, but they quite likely did not expect their patron to turn from Kleptocracy into Fascism. Being a Fascist satellite is a very different thing than being a junior partner to Oligarch Russia. At some point Kazakhstan (and others) will start seeking assurances elsewhere if this goes on. Especially if Russia looks to come out of this with a completely demolish military, but with the imperial ambitions intact.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 07:34 |
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/vesti_news/status/1501839572455641090 I think the lies are bad on purpose as a kind of bullying tactic. Like reality is what they say it is, no matter how stupid, and also gently caress you.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2022 14:51
|
|
