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There's blowback going on right now. Biden is approaching Maduro and the Grand Ayatollah, hat in hand, asking nicely for them to please sell us oil or trade them for dollars. We'll get rid of those nasty sanctions if you'll help us keep the price of crude down. World is going topsy turvy. Russia is threatening the first world order, and we're scrambling to keep too many countries from dedollarizing - or begging the countries we tried excluding from the petrodollar to come back.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:55
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yep I hope Iran takes them for trillions.
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Mar 10, 2022 01:05
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The Iran deal showed quite clearly that US promises are written in sand. That doesn't mean Iran and Venezuela won't take a deal if it means being released from the stranglehold even for a year or two, though.
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Mar 10, 2022 01:06
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:There's blowback going on right now. Biden is approaching Maduro and the Grand Ayatollah, hat in hand, asking nicely for them to please sell us oil or trade them for dollars. We'll get rid of those nasty sanctions if you'll help us keep the price of crude down. also the UAE and MBS both have been dodging Biden’s calls lately
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Mar 10, 2022 01:06
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Sephyr posted:The Iran deal showed quite clearly that US promises are written in sand. If it means their assets are unfrozen and they get to trade oil openly, it's an incredibly good deal. Centrist Committee posted:also the UAE and MBS both have been dodging Biden’s calls lately Yeah, this would definitely not be happening without Saudi Arabia choosing OPEC over NATO.
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Mar 10, 2022 01:32
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Sephyr posted:The Iran deal showed quite clearly that US promises are written in sand. Massive lol at Guaido being the big loser
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Mar 10, 2022 01:49
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Nothus posted:Yeah. this great news for noah kulwin and brendan james
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Mar 10, 2022 01:59
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:If it means their assets are unfrozen and they get to trade oil openly, it's an incredibly good deal. While it lasts. They better use that time to stock up on essential stuff and divesting their dollar-dependent sectors favorably, because the hammer is coming back down the moment the GOP takes back power/they get too chummy with China/Democrats want to be seen as tough brave boys.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:08
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Yeah I wonder what the long term effects will be for the Europeans when the rich and powerful who aren’t in the European camp start to pull out because they realize their wealth isn’t safe.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:26
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russia invades ukraine -> ??? -> i get to finally cycle iran on a 90-day tourist visa in 2023
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Mar 10, 2022 02:43
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Russia invading Ukraine finally made people in DC look at a map. Nobody there really realized how big Eurasia was before that.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:34
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVX-PrBRtTY
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Mar 10, 2022 03:43
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Mar 10, 2022 06:06
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I listened to the latest episode twice. I like this guest even if he ends up being wrong, and like others have mentioned he contradicted himself a few times. He still made a strong case that this thing is going on for the long haul because no one can or has to back down, perhaps least of all Russia
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Mar 10, 2022 08:49
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using contradictions seems a bit off, more of thinking through the possibility space and determining what are the viable options. then again, i suppose that contradictions are at the heart of this whole thing. the us wants to make demands and elide responsibility for the consequences. putin has been calculating and careful for decades only to launch an invasion. germany wants to defend and rally it’s EU counterparts into rebuking russian aggression while also getting a deal on natural gas from russia. the outcome seems to be reliant on whatever side blinks first.
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Mar 10, 2022 09:07
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hadji murad posted:Yeah I wonder what the long term effects will be for the Europeans when the rich and powerful who aren’t in the European camp start to pull out because they realize their wealth isn’t safe. going by my local twitter, euros are still very gung-ho about sanctioning energy, as they believe it will even help curb climate change in the long run, but these are the same who were asking for nuclear intervention and i wonder if when prices go up they wont immediately start pivoting on a proxy war
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Mar 10, 2022 11:00
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Phone posted:the outcome seems to be reliant on whatever side blinks first. I see no indication anyone is going to blink until ww3 is over
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Mar 10, 2022 15:10
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The first person to blink is looking directly into the flash.
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Mar 10, 2022 15:22
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Honest Thief posted:going by my local twitter, euros are still very gung-ho about sanctioning energy, as they believe it will even help curb climate change in the long run, but these are the same who were asking for nuclear intervention and i wonder if when prices go up they wont immediately start pivoting on a proxy war On my end (also Portuguese) there's at least one guy going on how the only people complaining are in the major cities and how everyone should just put on more sweaters, when he lives in technically an interior town with a direct bus route and doesn't go out much. Nearly every other lefty is trying to remind their audience that a PCP/be proposal to curb price gouging in gas was blocked months ago by nearly every other major party in government as the centre right's tv pet economist is finally begging for measures like that.
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Mar 10, 2022 15:50
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Kunster posted:On my end (also Portuguese) there's at least one guy going on how the only people complaining are in the major cities and how everyone should just put on more sweaters, when he lives in technically an interior town with a direct bus route and doesn't go out much. Nearly every other lefty is trying to remind their audience that a PCP/be proposal to curb price gouging in gas was blocked months ago by nearly every other major party in government as the centre right's tv pet economist is finally begging for measures like that.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:11
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:I listened to the latest episode twice. I like this guest even if he ends up being wrong, and like others have mentioned he contradicted himself a few times. He still made a strong case that this thing is going on for the long haul because no one can or has to back down, perhaps least of all Russia I liked at the end when he mentioned he finished his wine. Probably what hanging out at some intellectual bar is like or something.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:41
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https://twitter.com/TheWarNerd/status/1502079956855103490?s=20&t=U8TsfLBUb8C0i45h0IWo7w
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Mar 11, 2022 20:58
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:The first person to blink is looking directly into the flash. I hope they blink before I do and I hope I never get sober
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Mar 11, 2022 21:15
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you don't have to be the fastest person to outrun the nuke, you just have to be faster than the next guy
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Mar 11, 2022 21:21
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Latest episode was good, helped me better understand how Russia is working around the sanctions. The point Ben made about how the increased prices from sanctions would only give Russia a larger surplus, just through non-dollar means was pretty eye opening and made the sanctions seem pretty self defeating.
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Mar 12, 2022 01:03
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Mayman10 posted:Latest episode was good, helped me better understand how Russia is working around the sanctions. The point Ben made about how the increased prices from sanctions would only give Russia a larger surplus, just through non-dollar means was pretty eye opening and made the sanctions seem pretty self defeating. Sanctions have always been self-defeating because it encourages the retention of a national bourgeois, and keeps local elites invested into their national economy. Russian oligarchs were still dumping a ton of wealth into the west just in case Putin ever started looking at them sideways, but now they're totally cut off. This could be the first time we've ever seen something resembling a capitalist Juche, since Russia is totally cut off from the First World.
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Mar 12, 2022 01:12
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Sanctions have always been self-defeating because it encourages the retention of a national bourgeois, and keeps local elites invested into their national economy. Russian oligarchs were still dumping a ton of wealth into the west just in case Putin ever started looking at them sideways, but now they're totally cut off. This could be the first time we've ever seen something resembling a capitalist Juche, since Russia is totally cut off from the First World. Really good points. They mentioned something similar about Russia being a special case with how they'll actually be able to respond and affect consumers here in a meaningful way. Any thoughts on how the Russian bourgeois is going to be affected by the possible seizure and nationalization of Western assets? I imagine it would strengthen the power the state has in the economy and reduce the power of the bourgeois, unless the assets are sold off to oligarchs of course.
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Mar 12, 2022 01:31
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Kunster posted:On my end (also Portuguese) there's at least one guy going on how the only people complaining are in the major cities and how everyone should just put on more sweaters, when he lives in technically an interior town with a direct bus route and doesn't go out much. Nearly every other lefty is trying to remind their audience that a PCP/be proposal to curb price gouging in gas was blocked months ago by nearly every other major party in government as the centre right's tv pet economist is finally begging for measures like that. what a great time it would be for the jet stream to slow or collapse
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Mar 12, 2022 03:54
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Mayman10 posted:Really good points. They mentioned something similar about Russia being a special case with how they'll actually be able to respond and affect consumers here in a meaningful way. Last I heard those assets are being managed by a government bureau, with no near term plans to auction them off. AFAIK it's the government taking over payroll so laborers can keep working.
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Mar 12, 2022 04:07
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I know it’s a week old now but I love that johns first instinct once the war kicked off was to think ‘oh wow I better read the white guard again to get a handle in things’
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Mar 17, 2022 08:04
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They’ve been kinda quiet since the war began, only like one show.
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Mar 18, 2022 01:24
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They did an emergency ep at the end of February and then two episodes the first week of March, when the war first started, which is unusual for them. Mark likes to jam them up at the end of the month.
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Mar 18, 2022 01:59
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john's doing as much civil war research as ukraine stuff in his free time as well, it looks like. we should probably expect them to alternate between
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Mar 18, 2022 02:26
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skooma512 posted:They’ve been kinda quiet since the war began, only like one show.
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Mar 18, 2022 02:31
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John lost his phone and laptop in that taxi, so who knows how far it set him back or if they got em back
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Mar 18, 2022 05:34
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yeah but imagine how bad it would be if it had been his war poetry books
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Mar 18, 2022 08:55
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The new newsletter is John's overview of The White Guard, and it's a stupendous read.
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Mar 18, 2022 14:01
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:The new newsletter is John's overview of The White Guard, and it's a stupendous read. I'm really glad Dolan has found some stability and success doing the podcast, but I miss reading him a lot. His stuf fwas half the reason I devoured the old Exile whenever it came out. His book reviews in particular.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:35
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New episode about the Ukraine War and the Chechen wars. Sounds good!
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Mar 20, 2022 02:00
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The most interesting part of this episode for me was the insight into the makeup and changes in the autocrats supporting Putin. I think this is the FT article they mentioned going into some of it. The TLDR seems to be: starting in 2012 or so Putin dumped the more-international ultralibs and brought in more nationalistic pure autocratic types.
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Mar 20, 2022 17:49
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