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Deteriorata posted:Related, by a political analyst in Kyiv: Ukraine will not surrender one inch of land to Russia – the west must understand this Yeah Putin is really hoping the Ukrainians want peace, but man he really cannot read the room.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:15
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah Putin is really hoping the Ukrainians want peace, but man he really cannot read the room. He really went all in on the whole idea, didn't he. I will do a war on them until the only outcome is my version of peace.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:20
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Dapper_Swindler posted:wasnt girkin behind all the donbas poo poo. i wouldnt be shocked if he isnt happy that putin hosed it all up. It's not his account, but the real Girkin is not very optimistic with how things are going. He still gets invited to DNR TV talk shows, but he gets more and more scorn from other guests and hosts for outright saying that everything is going to poo poo.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:21
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KitConstantine posted:A few boat updates What source do you have that says the US is sending anti ship missiles. Because that’s a very big deal. Are they harpoons? Or some Soviet era shore battery system? If the Ukrainians somehow manage to sink a destroyer or cruiser I imagine that would enrage the Russians to such a degree that they might try to retaliate in a far more aggressive way. Even if it’s war sinking a modern navy ship seems to be a really big deal.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:24
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Kraftwerk posted:If the Ukrainians somehow manage to sink a destroyer or cruiser I imagine that would enrage the Russians to such a degree that they might try to retaliate in a far more aggressive way. Even if it’s war sinking a modern navy ship seems to be a really big deal. "What're you gonna do, invade more?"
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Mar 25, 2022 16:26
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Paladinus posted:It's not his account, but the real Girkin is not very optimistic with how things are going. He still gets invited to DNR TV talk shows, but he gets more and more scorn from other guests and hosts for outright saying that everything is going to poo poo. thanks. i am not surprised. the dude was some ghoul who actually knew how to do soft and hard power in a mix to get poo poo he wanted. now putin through it all away. Kavros posted:He really went all in on the whole idea, didn't he. I will do a war on them until the only outcome is my version of peace. yeah, maybe not in one go but he was gonna take as much as he could. he really misread the whole thing badly. mostly because he has been doing the same tactic since the 90s and eventually hosed up.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:26
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Kraftwerk posted:What source do you have that says the US is sending anti ship missiles. Because that’s a very big deal. Biden said it yesterday.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:28
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Kraftwerk posted:What source do you have that says the US is sending anti ship missiles. Because that’s a very big deal. Are they harpoons? Or some Soviet era shore battery system? Correction "working with allies to send anti-ship missiles" https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1507061607624585217?s=20&t=foQOZMDdA1ZyB9mjqVEwMA So it's in the plans not yet executed but the language used seems a lot firmer than that for planes quote:“We have started consulting with Allies on providing anti-ship missiles to Ukraine,” a senior administration official told reporters after President Biden attended a NATO summit.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:28
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Putin whining about Hollywood and the West not giving Russia enough credit for WW2 goes back a long way. Of course scholars and researchers do in fact give Russia due credit and the numbers are right there on loving Wikipedia. But it is about popular perception which is important 80 years after the fact because ??? It tells you how much he wants respect from the West and how driven he is by pride and arrogance. I truly hope the Russian elite and their families become permanently isolated from Europe and the US. Bleed Russia of every graduate that wants to leave but exorcise their leadership and their children to Dubai and China.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:29
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Paladinus posted:It's not his account, but the real Girkin is not very optimistic with how things are going. He still gets invited to DNR TV talk shows, but he gets more and more scorn from other guests and hosts for outright saying that everything is going to poo poo. Speaking of real Strelkov, I wonder what's the deal with this post: https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_651616 He's real mad at some separatist official that knows state secrets allegedly fleeing and joining the Ukrainian side, from what I gather through autotranslate ('Rusty' Tolik/Anatoliy, but I'm not familiar enough with DPR people to know who that's referring to). edit: oh it's Anatoly Chubais, reported yesterday as having fled Russia to Turkey. not sure why Strelkov thinks he has dangerous state secrets that really matter in any way to this conflict eke out fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 16:31
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Looks like the colonel who survived getting run over by a tank didn't. https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1507374658877857805?t=ud5gjcxK-U7OfGCjrWoXqw&s=19 Probably shock/bloodloss. Crushing injuries are notoriously traumatic and hard to fix, and I lack confidence in the Russian military's medical facilities to stabilize him enough that he survived in Belarus
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Mar 25, 2022 16:34
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eke out posted:Speaking of real Strelkov, I wonder what's the deal with this post: https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_651616 so he is mad that Rusty Venture betrayed him. i mean dude, what did you expect would happen. Owling Howl posted:Putin whining about Hollywood and the West not giving Russia enough credit for WW2 goes back a long way. Of course scholars and researchers do in fact give Russia due credit and the numbers are right there on loving Wikipedia. But it is about popular perception which is important 80 years after the fact because ??? It tells you how much he wants respect from the West and how driven he is by pride and arrogance. i think anyone who can get out permanently, is getting out. Russia is the new north korea now.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:34
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sexy tiger boobs posted:Biden said it yesterday. The timing was... interesting. Right after Ukraine sinking that LCT US goes: "hmm, maybe we should help them do this some more!".
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Mar 25, 2022 16:34
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KitConstantine posted:Looks like the colonel who survived getting run over by a tank didn't. Supposedly this was one of the Russian brigades at Makariv.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:36
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 Feedback appreciated, I'll be only incorporating this into OP later in the evening. Twitter accounts for Russo-Ukrainian war. This is just a compilation of accounts I'm aware of, rather than a recommendation to read all of this, or some kind of “allowed sources” list for the thread. My general suggestions are to use common sense:
General analysis of the war https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar https://twitter.com/JominiW Master list on Russian economy https://twitter.com/i/lists/1506669435612016645 OSINT aggregators https://twitter.com/RALee85 https://twitter.com/girkingirkin https://twitter.com/Liveuamap https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp https://twitter.com/loogunda Broader OSINT community https://twitter.com/Nrg8000 (maps) https://twitter.com/UAWeapons https://twitter.com/COUPSURE https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop (Russian equipment losses) https://twitter.com/bellingcat https://twitter.com/CovertShores (boats) https://twitter.com/christogrozev https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman Variety commentary https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk https://twitter.com/CITeam_en https://twitter.com/olex_scherba https://twitter.com/mhmck https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture Decent dudes with occasional weird takes https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch https://twitter.com/kamilkazani (more than occasional) Ukrainian journalists https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk https://twitter.com/lapatina_ https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko (seems to primarily repost MoD stuff these days) Foreign reporters in Ukraine https://twitter.com/andersostlund https://twitter.com/sommervilletv https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar https://twitter.com/OzKaterji Journalists reporting on Ukraine from abroad https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM https://twitter.com/maxseddon https://twitter.com/yarotrof https://twitter.com/maryilyushina https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7 https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss Spammy, sensationalist accounts to be careful with  https://twitter.com/nexta_tv https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR Ukrainian news https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine Ukrainian government accounts https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa https://twitter.com/ukraine https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA Western government accounts https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ https://twitter.com/JackDetsch (actually just a journalist reporting from Pentagon) https://twitter.com/armees_gouv https://twitter.com/DaveKeating (actually just a journalist reporting from Brussels) https://twitter.com/DanLamothe (another defence briefings journalist) Edit: Added French Ministry of Armed Forces. Edit2: Added English Luhansk. Edit3: Added Mick Ryan. Edit4: Added Dan Lamothe. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 16:39
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KitConstantine posted:Correction "working with allies to send anti-ship missiles" Sounds like they want someone else to give Ukraine theirs. Poland has truck-mounted NSMs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Strike_Missile). I bet the US is just aching to see how they perform against russian warships, as it's also used by the US Navy, and its cousin JSM is the anti-ship weapon for the F-35...
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Mar 25, 2022 16:39
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Kraftwerk posted:What source do you have that says the US is sending anti ship missiles. Because that’s a very big deal. Are they harpoons? Or some Soviet era shore battery system? The only thing I have read is that NATO was “discussing” sending the Ukrainians anti ship missiles. No discussion of type or origin in the article I read. PS. Harpoons are lovely and dated ASMs, and I would tell you before this war started, are less than a huge threat to the Russian Navy unless dozens get fired at once. Not so sure now.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:39
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Owling Howl posted:Putin whining about Hollywood and the West not giving Russia enough credit for WW2 goes back a long way. Of course scholars and researchers do in fact give Russia due credit and the numbers are right there on loving Wikipedia. But it is about popular perception which is important 80 years after the fact because ??? It tells you how much he wants respect from the West and how driven he is by pride and arrogance. He also has to focus on WW2 because Russia really doesn't have a narrative for how people in Europe should feel good about its actions since then. Obviously also the alliance with Hitler to mutully invade Poland gets left out of the narrative, as well as the opportunistic invasion of Finland while Britain and France were distracted with Germany.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:40
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ZombieLenin posted:The only thing I have read is that NATO was “discussing” sending the Ukrainians anti ship missiles. No discussion of type or origin in the article I read. Guess we'd find out if their CIWS systems are competent
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Mar 25, 2022 16:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Thank you--this is great! Maybe add France to the Western government list--they do daily Ukraine updates as well: https://twitter.com/armees_gouv Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 16:45
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Owling Howl posted:Putin whining about Hollywood and the West not giving Russia enough credit for WW2 goes back a long way. I mean it's actually a pretty fair call, outside anyone who reads up on it (or you know lives around that region and knows whats up). The nazi sent a huge amount of their forces eastward, and the Soviets put in a hell of an effort fighting back. Literally nothing to do with Russia invading Ukraine though. Best you can say is while completely irrelevant at least there's actual historical based facts in the statement, unlike the Hunter Biden Covid mice bio weapons lab crazy town poo poo. Not sure if that makes it better or worse. Well irrelevant either way, so what ever.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:47
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Thank you--this is great! Maybe add France to the Western government list--they do daily Ukraine updates as well: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation France's updates are weirdly behind everyone else though (for instance, Mykolaiv is still fully in Russian control with a Ukrainian offensive trying to take it, according to that map -- which is more than a week out of date)
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Mar 25, 2022 16:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Great stuff, thanks. I wrote Bing off a while ago. Is its reverse image search really better compared to Google's? Never thought to try Yandex's either, will have to give it a shot
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Mar 25, 2022 16:49
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Thank you--this is great! Maybe add France to the Western government list--they do daily Ukraine updates as well: https://twitter.com/armees_gouv Cheers! eke out posted:France's updates are weirdly behind everyone else though (for instance, Mykolaiv is still fully in Russian control with a Ukrainian offensive trying to take it, according to that map -- which is more than a week out of date) Added them, nonetheless – multiple comparison points don't hurt.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:49
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Good list cinci - I would maybe include https://twitter.com/loogunda under the osint aggregator list - they're a Ukranian account that translates local Ukrainian posts from all over the country on twitter/telegram into English. It's interesting for on-the-ground information that isn't filtered through the military. In other news - Russia put out an updated casualty total https://twitter.com/kath_stoner/status/1507372367504297994?s=20&t=vFqwkUsiYOEYnZ_GHwURww Seems low. And the K:W ratio is 2.8, so smack on average. For reference the US managed a ratio of 7 in Iraq and 8 in Afganistan.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:49
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CommieGIR posted:Guess we'd find out if their CIWS systems are competent How good is CIWS in general? My impression has been that luck is just as integral to its effectiveness as volume of fire.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:50
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dr_rat posted:I mean it's actually a pretty fair call, outside anyone who reads up on it (or you know lives around that region and knows whats up). The nazi sent a huge amount of their forces eastward, and the Soviets put in a hell of an effort fighting back. Everything i have read about putin tells that he much like trump/nixon/hitler/others is obsessed with every grievance against them or the nation and he spend hours bitching about it in exacting detail. apperently thats what he did to trump during Helsinki.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:52
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dr_rat posted:I mean it's actually a pretty fair call, outside anyone who reads up on it (or you know lives around that region and knows whats up). The nazi sent a huge amount of their forces eastward, and the Soviets put in a hell of an effort fighting back. Not only is it irrelevant, it is also particularly hilarious to hear the complaints about Hollywood (!) hiding the truth from a leader which dictates the media coverage down to which words are allowed and whose troops are reported to be burning history books in a foreign country.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:52
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dominoeffect posted:Great stuff, thanks. Bing's regular search is kind-of rubbish, especially the non-English queries, but the image search at times has been, khem, too effective. Yandex reverse image search is the best for Eastern European war content, though. If you're interested in the topic, I can pitch https://www.domaintools.com/resources/blog/a-brief-comparison-of-reverse-image-searching-platforms as a tea time read
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Mar 25, 2022 16:53
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https://twitter.com/manstys/status/1507373919027748869?s=21 Claim that Russian forces literally ran over and killed their own brigade commander. Things must be going super well for the Russians. Also TASS is apparently reporting the Russians have killed 14k Ukrainian soldiers and wounded another 40k. We do not have good numbers on Ukrainian losses, but this feels a lot like “let’s use our own casualty numbers and say they are the Ukrainian numbers instead!”
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Mar 25, 2022 16:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Nice list. I'd adde Phillips P OBrien as general analyst. He's been pretty on point so far, especially regarding logistics. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien
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Mar 25, 2022 16:55
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KitConstantine posted:Good list cinci - I would maybe include https://twitter.com/loogunda under the osint aggregator list - they're a Ukranian account that translates local Ukrainian posts from all over the country on twitter/telegram into English. It's interesting for on-the-ground information that isn't filtered through the military. Added, cheers. ZombieLenin posted:Also TASS is apparently reporting the Russians have killed 14k Ukrainian soldiers and wounded another 40k. Yeah, the number feels a bit on the nose.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:56
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DekeThornton posted:Nice list. I'd adde Phillips P OBrien as general analyst. He's been pretty on point so far, especially regarding logistics. He's right there in the “variety commentary” section.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:57
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ZombieLenin posted:The only thing I have read is that NATO was “discussing” sending the Ukrainians anti ship missiles. No discussion of type or origin in the article I read. Unless I’m horribly out of date, I thought harpoons were the mainline ASMs used by most of the US navy in concert with Exocet missiles for a lot of European navies and some less developed countries. Pretty sure the Iraqis and Argentinians have been able to score some pretty nasty hits with Exocets in the past. Are there some new technologies in play now for anti ship missiles or has naval weapon development suffered because nobody expected any serious naval conflict after the Cold War?? Are tomahawks also considered anti ship missiles or are they just cruise missiles occasionally used for ASM duty? It’s an area of modern warfare I barely understand at this point.
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Mar 25, 2022 16:59
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The initial unconfirmed reports of this mentioned they had hit a command post - it's likely that this guy isn't the only target of value that was hit.
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Mar 25, 2022 17:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:He's right there in the “variety commentary” section. Ah, sorry!
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Mar 25, 2022 17:00
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Mariupol was ALWAYS the objective. It's a city that can prop up a Novo Russia with it's huge industrial centers and sea access. That is true to the extent that all of Ukraine was the objective. In no way does there seem to have been a contingency plan if the 'smash 'n grab' against Kyiv failed. Everything else seems to have been opportunistic and poorly coordinated. Mariupol was the one Ukrainian city where the Russians were able to siege it without constant harassment and supply raids. Will they be able to hold it? For how long? At what cost? It's not like Russia can just at any time go "peace! we'll keep our gains and call it done for now!". The symbolic value of Mariupol is also immense. For Russia to state at this point "We shall never relinquish this city!" is just dumb. If they lose it later, yet another humiliation will be added to the tally. Apart from the hyper-optimist "Donbas encircled any day now!" crowd, the best odds given to Russia are based on attrition and grinding their way to victory. Even so, we're seeing Ukraine gain momentum. The 'siege and pound' strategy won't work under current conditions. Russian resources spent on securing and holding Mariupol are resources not going towards opposing Ukrainian maneuvers and attacks - not going towards defending the front lines. I contend that every day Russia pursues territorial gains and gamble even harder on a victory that will never come is a day closer to disintegration of the Russian Federation. While I want to see Ukraine win this war, and Kremlin gain nothing from this aggression, I'd rather not see a balkanized Russia. I hope Ukraine and/or a possible Moscow coup are able to end this war sooner rather than later - for the sake of everyone.
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Mar 25, 2022 17:00
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KitConstantine posted:Good list cinci - I would maybe include https://twitter.com/loogunda under the osint aggregator list - they're a Ukranian account that translates local Ukrainian posts from all over the country on twitter/telegram into English. It's interesting for on-the-ground information that isn't filtered through the military. Some of the replies to the TASS report are great: quote:We made a mistake. There are no zeros at the end of the numbers. Here are the correct numbers. quote:That is why over 16 thousand dead Russians are lying in the fields of Ukraine. After 16 thousand, it became impossible to count - there were too many corpses and a high intensity of battles. Soon there will be an ecological catastrophe in Ukraine due to decomposing bodies.
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Mar 25, 2022 17:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Added, cheers. I'm always a bit suspect of data that is too close to the arithmetic mean, since that's the first thing that comes to mind when you're trying to cook some books. You gotta spice it up with some variance one way or the other (within 1 standard deviation, anyway) to avoid suspicion.
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Mar 25, 2022 17:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Bing's regular search is kind-of rubbish, especially the non-English queries, but the image search at times has been, khem, too effective. Yandex reverse image search is the best for Eastern European war content, though. Isn’t Bing generally crap, except for finding porn? I always remember the jokes that Steve Balmer worked hard on that feature.
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