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Beefeater1980 posted:This (a) purports to be a secret document signed by a Very Important Person; and (b) conveniently addresses a recent event (allegations that Ukrainians have been mistreating POWs). Absent outside corroboration, this one’s a fake. The letter has been debunked now; the signature is fake. Also, the shooting video has been geolocated, Eastern outskirts of Kharkiv.
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Mar 29, 2022 13:55
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Hannibal Rex posted:The letter has been debunked now; the signature is fake. Also, the shooting video has been geolocated, Eastern outskirts of Kharkiv. People are calling you out because you offer no evidence of your claims. An article, video clip, something. I don't doubt that most of the things we see and post in this thread are either straight propaganda or at least colored by it. Right now, the "evidence" is "trust me bro". So please, share your information and your source.
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Mar 29, 2022 14:27
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Hannibal Rex posted:The letter has been debunked now; the signature is fake. Also, the shooting video has been geolocated, Eastern outskirts of Kharkiv. Can you post a link? I’d like to share it elsewhere but my googlefu isn’t strong enough to find the evidence.
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Mar 29, 2022 14:27
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Here is the walk back from a US official about the poisoning: https://www.reuters.com/world/intelligence-suggests-environmental-factor-sickened-abramovich-ukrainian-2022-03-28/ E: believe what you want I'm just posting the evidence for the first unsubstantiated claim probe
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Mar 29, 2022 14:48
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https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1508790827757326341?s=21&t=ieh3brpZPMVtLOA_lYpxUg
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Mar 29, 2022 15:22
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I would not want to be a Russian tank crew right now. 
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Mar 29, 2022 15:25
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I’m curious how many trained tank crews they have left.
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Mar 29, 2022 15:28
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ASAPI posted:People are calling you out because you offer no evidence of your claims. Oxygenpoisoning posted:Can you post a link? I’d like to share it elsewhere but my googlefu isn’t strong enough to find the evidence. Sorry, I got my threads mixed up. The primary source is an Italian OSINT guy on Twitter, Bellingcat has picked it up. That's good enough for me. If you disagree, fair enough. But then the burden of proof is on you that it's staged. Hannibal Rex posted:
Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 15:29
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Crab Dad posted:I’m curious how many trained tank crews they have left. Knowing them It probably comes down to how loosely you want to define trained.
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Mar 29, 2022 15:33
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Hannibal Rex posted:Sorry, I got my threads mixed up. The primary source is an Italian OSINT guy on Twitter, Bellingcat has picked it up. That's good enough for me. If you disagree, fair enough. But then the burden of proof is on you that it's staged. No worries. I appreciate the conversation and people posting what they find. I’m not under the assumption that Ukraine isn’t doing bad stuff, because it is war, and lovely people do lovely things, regardless of the side they are on. Hopefully Ukraine addresses it and those soldiers see jail time. At the same time, Russia has a long history of doing false flags, and multiple streams of “killing/hurting pows” came up all at once, then then the memo/documents. It’s probably an amplification attempt by Russia to make it seem more wide spread, but Ukraine has been very good about keeping their people off of social media so I questioned the veracity of the video just because Russia would fake such a thing if given the chance.
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Mar 29, 2022 15:54
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We just might be on the downslope here https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508774654940520448
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Mar 29, 2022 16:48
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Apologies for leaving off the link when I posted. https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1508527142593871883
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Mar 29, 2022 17:16
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zoux posted:We just might be on the downslope here US and UK intelligence have observed a strategic shift as well. https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08abb4071acbce
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Mar 29, 2022 17:19
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psydude posted:US and UK intelligence have observed a strategic shift as well. Yeah but the trick seems to be that it might be a bait-and-switch to consolidate and rally forces. They've already emphasized its NOT a ceasefire, and Ukraine is not going to deal if Russia refuses to also return Southern Ukraine to pre-invasion lines. Given that Russia has balked or completely ignored multiple agreements, I'm highly skeptical.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:26
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah but the trick seems to be that it might be a bait-and-switch to consolidate and rally forces. They've already emphasized its NOT a ceasefire, and Ukraine is not going to deal if Russia refuses to also return Southern Ukraine to pre-invasion lines. Totally agree. It looks more like it's them cutting their losses and licking their wounds, vs. any kind of real movement toward de-escalation. But the next effect on letting Ukraine re-take terrain and commit forces to the east/south will likely be the same.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:29
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psydude posted:Totally agree. It looks more like it's them cutting their losses and licking their wounds, vs. any kind of real movement toward de-escalation. But the next effect on letting Ukraine re-take terrain and commit forces to the east/south will likely be the same. Yeah its gonna be great if Ukraine watches the trains leave and shifts a bulk of forces South, where Ukraine is already starting to make gains around Kherson.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:30
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psydude posted:Totally agree. It looks more like it's them cutting their losses and licking their wounds, vs. any kind of real movement toward de-escalation. But the next effect on letting Ukraine re-take terrain and commit forces to the east/south will likely be the same. Yeah, this just means a refocus on the southeast. Problem is if Russia takes and holds the southeast, that's a new avenue for sea resupply of the next offensive.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah, this just means a refocus on the southeast. Yeah but its also letting Ukraine bulk their forces on a focused objective rather than spread out between multiple fronts, which is likely to, actually, help Ukraine. Especially if Ukraine can suddenly bring heavy support weapons to bear on those cargo ships that take significant time to load/unload versus trucks.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:45
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zoux posted:We just might be on the downslope here UA government seems to be less than convinced that this is anything other than stalling tactics on Russia's part. https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1508825066531958788?t=cVJeBcaMV9RgjB2S2_e8qw&s=19
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Mar 29, 2022 17:48
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I mean, if they are moving men and materiel away from Kyiv, that doesn't sound like they are "strengthening their positions"
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Mar 29, 2022 17:50
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Yeah all of the above basically. https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1508847889115660299?t=zlYTBBne73GFmE9gR1ISPA&s=19 The likely resolution is making the separatist east locations part of Russia and nobody will probably complain too much. Crimea's going to be a huge question mark. And something still has to be done to get things into a position where Neoputin simply makes up more bullshit and invades again in a few years. In the meantime, good luck getting those Russian forces back east cleanly because Ukraine knows how bullshit Russian promises have been with all this poo poo.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:50
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Oh goddam zelensky dont meet in person
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Mar 29, 2022 17:52
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https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1508823930638901252
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Mar 29, 2022 17:58
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Oh goddam zelensky dont meet in person Hopefully it'll be at Putin's longtable.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:58
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Zelenskyy just needs to cough and wipe his nose periodically to establish and maintain dominance.
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Mar 29, 2022 18:00
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Oh goddam zelensky dont meet in person You keep what you kill.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:18
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Oh goddam zelensky dont meet in person Zelensky seems to have enough sense not to put himself in a mayor of Gotham meets the mutant leader scenario.
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Mar 29, 2022 20:01
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Zelensky seems to have enough sense not to put himself in a mayor of Gotham meets the mutant leader scenario. Could do the ol Vizzini switcheroo. Also be a perfect time to educate Putin on the list of classical blunders...
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Mar 29, 2022 20:04
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I wonder why Ukraine doesn't send small sabotage teams into Russia and have them dick with the Russian train lines. A few pounds of c-4 on a track with a pressure detonator? That's going to give their engines some serious heartburn.
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Mar 29, 2022 20:45
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Cimber posted:I wonder why Ukraine doesn't send small sabotage teams into Russia and have them dick with the Russian train lines. A few pounds of c-4 on a track with a pressure detonator? That's going to give their engines some serious heartburn. I suspect they aren't so things don't escalate more. Right now Ukraine has the "moral high ground." Sending troops into Russia for infrastructure attacks would make it difficult to maintain that superiority, especially with the countries that are flooding them with weapons. They know they have won the public opinion war, they have to keep that victory. But I am totally with you, it would be a move that makes sense.
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Mar 29, 2022 21:03
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ASAPI posted:I suspect they aren't so things don't escalate more. Right now Ukraine has the "moral high ground." Sending troops into Russia for infrastructure attacks would make it difficult to maintain that superiority, especially with the countries that are flooding them with weapons. They know they have won the public opinion war, they have to keep that victory. well, I'm not sure how it could 'escalate more', if Russia is trying to
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Mar 29, 2022 21:07
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Cimber posted:well, I'm not sure how it could 'escalate more', if Russia is trying to The world would know that a Russian train was derailed heading towards one of their depots. Ukraine wouldn't be able to claim it wasn't them. As for escalation, Russia can certainly escalate this situation more. They have used chemical weapons previously in similar situations. They haven't started carpet bombing everything yet, so there is that as well. They totally pinky sweared not to use a nuke, so I am sure that is off the table... Also don't forget, there has been much talk about false flag attacks on Russian soil that would be used as justification of greater force being used.
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Mar 29, 2022 21:17
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I thought there was already plenty of sabotage happening at the borders at least. I'm not sure if pushing the logistics train a few dozen miles back into Russia would be worth the risk or investment of resources.
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Mar 29, 2022 21:20
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Cimber posted:I wonder why Ukraine doesn't send small sabotage teams into Russia and have them dick with the Russian train lines. A few pounds of c-4 on a track with a pressure detonator? That's going to give their engines some serious heartburn. Dunno if they need to, really. The ammo depot at Belgorod seems to be putting on a fireworks show again. https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1508886176043839492
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Mar 29, 2022 21:23
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah its gonna be great if Ukraine watches the trains leave and shifts a bulk of forces South, where Ukraine is already starting to make gains around Kherson. Is that possible, though? I thought the current Pentagon read was that the retreating Russian units are moving back to refit and regroup, but not necessarily to redeploy. Which means that Ukraine still needs to keep forces on hand to keep those guys in check if they get any more funny ideas.
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Mar 29, 2022 21:32
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ASAPI posted:I suspect they aren't so things don't escalate more. Right now Ukraine has the "moral high ground." Sending troops into Russia for infrastructure attacks would make it difficult to maintain that superiority, especially with the countries that are flooding them with weapons. They know they have won the public opinion war, they have to keep that victory. That's true, also I'd imagine it's similar to "why didn't the CSA send sabotage teams to cut railway lines from NYC to DC when they shared a language?" I'd guess the answer is that while Russia has been stepping on a lot of rakes they do still have a powerful internal security state and Ukraine can't freely send sabotage teams across the border without high risk of detection. Plus having guys trained to operate independently, know how to wreck the tracks, and not get caught half starved raiding a grocery dumpster as their contact didn't pick them up takes a lot of planning.
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Mar 29, 2022 21:33
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Hyrax Attack! posted:That's true, also I'd imagine it's similar to "why didn't the CSA send sabotage teams to cut railway lines from NYC to DC when they shared a language?" I'd guess the answer is that while Russia has been stepping on a lot of rakes they do still have a powerful internal security state and Ukraine can't freely send sabotage teams across the border without high risk of detection. Plus having guys trained to operate independently, know how to wreck the tracks, and not get caught half starved raiding a grocery dumpster as their contact didn't pick them up takes a lot of planning. The Confederates definitely sent a bunch of raiders to mess up railway lines, in addition to a variety of other guerilla activities. In fact there's a lot of connections between those cavalry groups and the formation of the KKK under Nathan Bedford Forrest. https://www.shirleendavies.com/raiders-of-the-civil-war-quantrills-raiders-and-other-guerilla-groups/
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Mar 29, 2022 22:15
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There's still a difference between a defensive war and an offensive one, though. I can't help but feel Zelensky knows he needs to walk a pretty fine line in terms of escalations.
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Mar 29, 2022 22:17
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:There's still a difference between a defensive war and an offensive one, though. I can't help but feel Zelensky knows he needs to walk a pretty fine line in terms of escalations. I think this is the reason we haven't seen some things happen. Zelensky is either an incredibly shrewd leader or has surrounded himself with people who are.
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Mar 29, 2022 22:41
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ASAPI posted:
Or both. Part of being a good leader tends to entail knowing when and what to delegate to the experts. Something various autocrats also seems to have major problems with.
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