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Okay time for pedantic responses to very small issues I have with LT2012's very informative posting today  Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Do you think Mike Huckabee, Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, Tom Harkin, Rick Santorum, and Barack Obama would have won a national election the way they won Iowa? Rick Santorum would never be anywhere near a top candidate in a national election. '92 is also weird in that the eventual winner was pretty much unknown before the primary but also didn't win any of the first five states. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Assuming they weight each category equally, it seems like the states most likely to be on the shortlist for the first five (depending on how they end up defining "small state" and whether some of the states would hold primaries instead of caucuses) based on the draft criteria are:
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Mar 29, 2022 16:55
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Mellow Seas posted:Okay time for pedantic responses to very small issues I have with LT2012's very informative posting today I was using Harkin as an example of someone who would never have won in a national election. CT has a 12% higher non-Hispanic white population, a larger Democratic margin in 2020, and lower union rates. So, it is basically New Jersey, but slightly worse (according to the draft criteria). It is a lot smaller, though!
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Mar 29, 2022 17:04
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Like, if you want anything resembling fair primaries, runoff elections would be the way to do it just to start with. Of course, the Democrats also established legally they have no obligation to run fair primaries, and could go straight back to smoke-filled rooms if they wanted to.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:05
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:CT has a 12% higher non-Hispanic white population, a larger Democratic margin in 2020, and lower union rates. So, it is basically New Jersey, but slightly worse (according to the draft criteria).
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Mar 29, 2022 17:09
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Srice posted:https://twitter.com/CoreyRobin/status/1508602390240501769 More funding to ICE? The corrupt agency that holds kids in cages, physically and sexually abuses them and their other detainees? Has there been any kind of talk about reform even tepid ones aside from just “more training” and giving them more money?
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Mar 29, 2022 17:32
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theCalamity posted:More funding to ICE? The corrupt agency that holds kids in cages, physically and sexually abuses them and their other detainees? Has there been any kind of talk about reform even tepid ones aside from just “more training” and giving them more money? well, they were able to expedite deportations by claiming that all immigrants constitute a disease risk under title 42. that's like a reform, right that's what people meant, when they said Biden would shut down the concentration camps, right
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Mar 29, 2022 17:43
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Plenty of additional money for funding the military, arms to Ukraine, the highest amount ever for ICE, a huge increase to the DoED budget for loan servicing ... but we can't fund additional covid response, or even consider the $10,000 federal loan forgiveness promise made during the campaign. Without even getting into the complete failure of BBB despite assurances from Biden. I'm not sure what the Democrats are expecting in the midterms, but 3 1/2 years of lame duck Biden accomplishing little more than feeding the maw of the MIC is not going to win any more votes from the base. Personally, I would start preparing for President DeSantis and a majority R Congress (if not supermajority) in the next few years, with everything that comes with that.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:49
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:NY Magazine has a long piece about how many of the biggest parts of MAGA world and the non-MAGA donor/professional class aren't sure if Trump will run again and are going all in on DeSantis. It's too early to say anything for sure, except that 2024 is going to suck no matter what, but at least there's a chance of it being funny. That article's narrative of "he's an absolute black hole of charisma who refuses to interact with human beings, but he checks all the right boxes, our loyalist media loves him, and party officials are excited for his middle-management energy" sounds eerily similar to what was being written about some of the more obviously sideshow candidates in the 2020 Dem primary. But if DeSantis ends up underperforming, he's going to flame out a lot more entertainingly than the likes of Buttigieg or Harris did.
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Mar 29, 2022 17:57
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Main Paineframe posted:It's too early to say anything for sure, except that 2024 is going to suck no matter what, but at least there's a chance of it being funny. That article's narrative of "he's an absolute black hole of charisma who refuses to interact with human beings, but he checks all the right boxes, our loyalist media loves him, and party officials are excited for his middle-management energy" sounds eerily similar to what was being written about some of the more obviously sideshow candidates in the 2020 Dem primary. But if DeSantis ends up underperforming, he's going to flame out a lot more entertainingly than the likes of Buttigieg or Harris did. Oh it’s DEFINITELY going to be funny as hell, just a loving clown show on the GOP side, with the Biden folks trying to keep him awake and coherent enough to campaign as the stable, sensible choice. This is after Biden gets impeached after ‘22, however that turns out. We are in for like a 6 year episode of Veep I figure, 4 at the very least if Dems come back in the ‘26 midterms after the DeSantis Pog Crisis or the Trump Balkanization Crisis explodes, or whatever the hosed up inconceivable thing that happens is. Whatever it is, posting it accurately now would be considered a joke, so it’s pretty guaranteed to be funny.
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Mar 29, 2022 18:08
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The Kevin McCarthy hierarchy of morality. Attending a white supremacist rally = Okay. Lying about your degree = Okay. Lying about your military service = Okay. Lying about being invited to orgies = NO. https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1508806487010861065 https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1508847002087481348
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Mar 29, 2022 18:49
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What did Mr cawthorne say about orgies?!
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Mar 29, 2022 19:05
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NeatHeteroDude posted:What did Mr cawthorne say about orgies?! He was telling a crowd about how decadent and immoral everyone in congress is and claimed he has been invited to multiple orgies and get together to publicly do coke in large groups in the lobby of the House. He said on his first day in congress he was invited to an orgy and a coke party.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:09
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:He was telling a crowd about how decadent and immoral everyone in congress is and claimed he has been invited to multiple orgies and get together to publicly do coke in large groups in the lobby of the House. Haha, that rules. My wife is really more invested in u.s. politics than I am so she'll appreciate the ridiculousness of it all. Thank you for explaining!
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Mar 29, 2022 19:11
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Madison is 100% not getting invited to the cool coke and sex parties.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:14
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theCalamity posted:More funding to ICE? The corrupt agency that holds kids in cages, physically and sexually abuses them and their other detainees? Has there been any kind of talk about reform even tepid ones aside from just “more training” and giving them more money? We can't even get up-to-date numbers on how many kids are still in the camps, much less media reportage on the conditions at the camps. *** From the new Harvard-Harris polling: quote:If the 2024 presidential election were held right now, the poll finds Trump getting 47 percent support compared to 41 percent for Biden. Twelve percent of voters are undecided. That's the largest margin yet I've seen for Trump beating Biden in 2024.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:22
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Interesting that in any other scenario, Biden wins. So Trump is vitally important to Republicans right now.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:23
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Oh, I meant to post this, too: Biden's new budget calls for spending $34 million to hire more lawyers to prosecute 1/6 Never Forget  :quote:The Justice Department is seeking $34.1 million to bring on additional attorneys for the January 6 investigation. In total, Biden administration has requested nearly $37.7 billion in discretionary funding for the Justice Department, a more than $2.6 billion increase from the amount approved for the current fiscal year. So glad that he's resolved soaring costs for medical care, housing, food & energy and can move on to the things that matter to
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Mar 29, 2022 19:26
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NeatHeteroDude posted:What did Mr cawthorne say about orgies?! https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1508127124498141187
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Mar 29, 2022 19:26
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Shammypants posted:Interesting that in any other scenario, Biden wins. So Trump is vitally important to Republicans right now. Where do you see a Biden-Nontrump match-up?
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Mar 29, 2022 19:29
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Willa Rogers posted:Oh, I meant to post this, too: Biden's new budget calls for spending $34 million to hire more lawyers to prosecute 1/6 Never Forget Willa Rogers posted:Where do you see a Biden-Nontrump match-up? \/\/\/ lol
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Mar 29, 2022 19:29
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Madison Cawthorn won his position so that he can leak the mod forums and that's just what he's doing.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:29
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https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1508830772446257160?s=21&t=yIVft7FiCik4Ae0iM4X3Ng The Democrats are basically just 2000s republicans at this point. Gotta drum up the xenophobia
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Mar 29, 2022 19:30
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Mellow Seas posted:Are you seriously complaining about a request for 0.06% of the SNAP budget to prosecute a coup against the government of the United States? I'm complaining about spending tens of millions more money on a show trial that polls say voters don't give a poo poo about instead of funding or expanding funding for stuff they do give a poo poo about.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:34
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Willa Rogers posted:I'm complaining about spending tens of millions more money on a show trial that polls say voters don't give a poo poo about instead of funding or expanding funding for stuff they do give a poo poo about.  okay"Tens of millions" in a $4 trillion budget rounds down rather emphatically to "zero" e: edit got long, made new post because LALD deserves his own reply Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 19:35
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Mellow Seas posted:
And .06% of 4,000,000,000,000 is still more than I'm gonna see in medical debt relief from the federal government.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:37
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Lib and let die posted:And .06% of 4,000,000,000,000 is still more than I'm gonna see in medical debt relief from the federal government. Well yeah you're one person, the government forgives much more than $34 million in medical debt each year through a weird process you may have heard of called "bankruptcy" (not to mention that it is the primary source of healthcare funds for about 30-40% of the population through the VA, Medicare and Medicaid). Also it's 0.06% of sixty billion, the SNAP budget, which itself is 1.5% of the federal budget. 0.06% of 1.5% is 0.0009% of the federal budget.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:41
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Mellow Seas posted:Well yeah you're one person, the government forgives much more than $34 million in medical debt each year through a weird process you may have heard of called "bankruptcy" (not to mention that it is the primary source of healthcare funds for about 30-40% of the population through the VA, Medicare and Medicaid). oh yeah, what a great system we have here, (further) gently caress my home-buying ability for decades with bankruptcy because the government would rather give military grade response equipment to nazis (ICE and US pigs, not talking about ukraine) than help people eat or get medical treatment
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Mar 29, 2022 19:42
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Willa Rogers posted:I'm complaining about spending tens of millions more money on a show trial that polls say voters don't give a poo poo about instead of funding or expanding funding for stuff they do give a poo poo about. Biden's budget is never going to actually be adopted. No Presidential budget has ever been enacted as written in the history of the country. Even if it was, that is a silly argument. The logic is just the inverse of "you can't complain about X when people in Africa are starving!"
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Mar 29, 2022 19:44
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Mellow Seas posted:Well yeah you're one person, the government forgives much more than $34 million in medical debt each year through a weird process you may have heard of called "bankruptcy" (not to mention that it is the primary source of healthcare funds for about 30-40% of the population through the VA, Medicare and Medicaid). Honest question, do you really think it's the exact numbers people are upset with and these corrections will help or is it just an impulse to correct people when they're wrong?
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Mar 29, 2022 19:45
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Lib and let die posted:oh yeah, what a great system we have here, (further) gently caress my home-buying ability for decades with bankruptcy because the government would rather give military grade response equipment to nazis (ICE and US pigs, not talking about ukraine) than help people eat or get medical treatment In the budget they are discussing, they are spending 2,390% more on SNAP and food aid than on ICE and 14,814,714% more on healthcare than all police and ICE spending combined.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:48
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:In the budget they are discussing, they are spending 2,390% more on SNAP and food aid than on ICE and 14,814,714% more on healthcare than all police and ICE spending combined. Let me make this easy for you: anything short of full forbearance and a move to a government-run system is not going to pass muster, for me, personally. Band-aids on bullet wounds.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:49
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Gumball Gumption posted:Honest question, do you really think it's the exact numbers people are upset with and these corrections will help or is it just an impulse to correct people when they're wrong? I also think the human brain has a real problem in the interpretation of gigantic numbers than end in -illion and people are not appreciating just how little money $34 million is for the federal government. \/\/\/\/\/\/ why would we expect a DOJ appropriation to do any of these things? The purpose is to prosecute a major crime. 
Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 19:52
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Mellow Seas posted:Honest answer: If you have a problem with appropriating $34 million to prosecute an attempted coup then you are making your determinations out of something besides rational thought; perhaps a compulsion to find fault with every decision every made by a certain political party. I just don't understand how any of that helps the average american citizen get out from under the crushing heel of "debt as a part of american culture." to be completely honest, I don't give a gently caress if liberal democracy lives or dies if I and everyone I know is going to spend whatever comes next living in debt slavery. once they lock up Trump, are they gonna forgive all student loan debt? once they lock up Trump, are they gonna go after health insurance administrators for crimes against humanity writ large? once they lock up Trump are they gonna funnel money into public housing?
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Mar 29, 2022 19:54
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Mellow Seas posted:Honest answer: If you have a problem with an appropriations request of 0.0009% of the federal budget to prosecute an attempted coup then you are making your determinations out of something besides rational thought; perhaps a compulsion to find fault with every decision ever made by a certain political party. If Dems aren't willing to pass anything to protect voting rights or even do anything to improve the lives of the working class, why would you need to bother prosecuting a coup? You're going to lose congress to Republicans in less than a year, and you'll lose the presidency in 2 years. Do you really have confidence that people in power are still going to jail for this? And if they do, what's to stop Trump/DeSantis from pardoning them in 2025?
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Mar 29, 2022 20:04
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Mellow Seas posted:Honest answer: If you have a problem with an appropriations request of 0.0009% (less than ten percent of one percent of one percent) of the federal budget to prosecute an attempted coup then you are making your determinations out of something besides rational thought; perhaps a compulsion to find fault with every decision ever made by a certain political party. Ok cool, so it's a bad faith thing where they can't actually be upset but it's because they have a compulsion to hate the Democrats. They're just mad we get money for things that won't go anywhere and are primarily a show but can't get money for basic needs of running a government. You can replace healthcare with bridges, social services, immigration reform, pretty much anything we want, have the money for, but just can't get. You're not going to get through to anyone upset about that by correcting figure amounts. Don't be mad that leftists are mad at you, be happy they still think the Democrats are capable of being convinced to do good. Why spend time trying to convince white supremacists we need healthcare? Dems are the only hope here so they're going to get a lot of the pain.
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Mar 29, 2022 20:10
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I mean at this point, sure, I'll accept that quantitative reasoning is not factoring into people's reactions to the request. Let's also note that Biden's proposed budget (which, as LT2012 says, is a symbolic document with zero chance of passing and we're just getting another CR) - 1. Increases funding for assisting the homeless by $580 million 2. Increases funding for housing assistance programs (vouchers, etc) by $6.4 billion 3. Includes an additional 1.8 billion for the administration of Social Security (fewer eligible people will miss out on benefits) 4. Increases funding for tribal communities by $1 billion 5. Increases funding for lead removal by $40 million 6. I'm just gonna stop here, I think I've made my point e: oops forgot source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/budget_fy2023.pdf (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 20:12
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MIT was one of the first major universities to say they were going to stop using SATs and ACTs on admissions permanently. They have reversed that policy after two years and reinstated the SAT and ACT scores as part of the process. They say that not using test scores resulted in their last three freshman classes being less diverse and that it disadvantaged high achieving students from poorer high schools and households. quote:At the same time, standardized tests also help us identify academically prepared, socioeconomically disadvantaged students who could not otherwise demonstrate readiness. Meanwhile, research has shown widespread testing can identify subaltern students who would be missed by these other measures. Of course, this area of research is complex and contested, but the main point is that for every aspect of every application, we always have to adjust for context: as one of the papers I linked above notes, "college admission protocols should attend to how social class is...encoded in non-numerical components of applications." quote:MIT's research shows that standardized testing helps to accurately predict student success at MIT, particularly in math. He noted that this could be because the university requires students to take calculus and calculus-based physics. https://twitter.com/peteskomoroch/status/1508482763040571394
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Mar 29, 2022 20:14
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Bishyaler posted:If Dems aren't willing to pass anything to protect voting rights or even do anything to improve the lives of the working class, why would you need to bother prosecuting a coup? You're going to lose congress to Republicans in less than a year, and you'll lose the presidency in 2 years. Do you really have confidence that people in power are still going to jail for this? And if they do, what's to stop Trump/DeSantis from pardoning them in 2025? pause to appreciate that the defense of the Biden budget here isn't that the budget is good actually, or that a few million dollars will turn January 6 into a real wedge issue- there's no way to make that work even by implication. the defense is that someone expecting the Democratic party to help them -must- be doing so due to an inborn hatred of the democratic party. what was the outside corruption, I wonder, who made the uppity peasants expect anything from their betters. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 29, 2022 20:18
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Biden's budget is never going to actually be adopted. No Presidential budget has ever been enacted as written in the history of the country. You keep saying this, yet the proposed budget lays out the president's and his party's priorities, and many of those priorities (like increases to defense spending) are almost always passed by Congress (and in that instance with even more than he asks). quote:Even if it was, that is a silly argument. The logic is just the inverse of "you can't complain about X when people in Africa are starving!" What's silly is emphasizing the spending for something voters have indicated they don't care about while not funding things they do care about, at a time when presidential ratings are wallowing in the crapper.
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Mar 29, 2022 20:20
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:MIT was one of the first major universities to say they were going to stop using SATs and ACTs on admissions permanently. Sadly sounds like the dynamic plaguing the New York City specialized high school system too. There is no guarantee that socioeconomic advantages don't become greater when you take a test out of the equation.
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Mar 29, 2022 20:21
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