Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

A.o.D. posted:

I gotta say, diagnosing a bunch of conscripts as worthless malingerers from thousands of miles away has some huge lovely NCO energy.

That made me laugh. Should be thread title

# ? Mar 31, 2022 02:51

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 21:37

Humbug Scoolbus: Apr 25, 2008; The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.; Clapping Larry

Here's the New York Times Article

The New York Times on March 30, 2022 posted:

WASHINGTON � President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military�s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin�s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.

�With regard to President Putin, look, what I can tell you is this, and I said this before, one of the Achilles' heels of autocracies is that you don�t have people in those systems who speak truth to power or who have the ability to speak truth to power,� Mr. Blinken said. �And I think that is something that we�re seeing in Russia.�

In a news conference on Wednesday afternoon, a Pentagon spokesman, John F. Kirby, said that the Defense Department believed that Mr. Putin has not had access to an accurate account of his army�s failures in Ukraine.

�We would concur with the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense, at every turn over the last month,� Mr. Kirby said.

�If Mr. Putin is misinformed or uninformed about what�s going on inside Ukraine, it�s his military, it�s his war, he chose it,� Mr. Kirby said. �And so the fact that he may not have all the context � that he may not fully understand the degree to which his forces are failing in Ukraine, that�s a little discomforting, to be honest with you.�

Other American officials have said that Mr. Putin�s rigid isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly rebuke advisers who do not share his views have created a degree of wariness, or even fear, in senior ranks of the Russian military. Officials believe that Mr. Putin has been getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces, creating mistrust with his military advisers.

Mr. Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin�s ignorance showed �a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,� according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There �is now persistent tension� between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Mr. Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said.

The war continues to go poorly for Russian forces. Ukraine�s military has not only held its own but also begun counterattacking. Some U.S. officials believe that senior Russian officials are wary of delivering truthful assessments � potentially afraid that the messengers of bad news will be held responsible for the battlefield failures.

Putin�s advisers. U.S. intelligence suggests that President Vladimir V. Putin has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military�s struggles in Ukraine. The intelligence shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, U.S. officials said.

On the ground. As the Ukrainian military has kept Russian forces from taking over Kyiv and even regained some ground in the northeast, Russia appears to be shifting its focus to eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas region, which borders Russia and where residents tend to feel a connection to Russia.

The Russian military�s stumbles have eroded trust between Mr. Putin and his Ministry of Defense. While Mr. Shoigu had been considered one of the few advisers Mr. Putin confided in, the prosecution of the war in Ukraine has damaged the relationship.

Mr. Putin has put two top intelligence officials under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, something that may have further contributed to the climate of fear.

With evidence of Mr. Putin�s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials. The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret. But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine�s borders last year, U.S. intelligence officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin�s moves.

The declassified information was reported earlier on Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday, though American officials voiced skepticism that Russia was stopping its attacks as a peace gesture. Rather, some believe the moves are a further sign that Russia is adjusting its failing strategy. It is also possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 02:54

highme: May 25, 2001; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Putin getting that Trump treatment.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 04:13

Wingnut Ninja: Jan 11, 2003; Mostly Harmless

The cynic in me sees this as just greasing the skids for Putin to go "whoopsie, I didn't mean to do all those awful things, it was just bad intelligence", a la the 2003 Bush administration.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:06

Naked Bear: Apr 15, 2007; Boners was recorded before a studio audience that was alive!

Wingnut Ninja posted:

The cynic in me sees this as just greasing the skids for Putin to go "whoopsie, I didn't mean to do all those awful things, it was just bad intelligence", a la the 2003 Bush administration.

loving hell, guys, Putin has actually been playing 6D chess this whole time!

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:12

CBJSprague24: Dec 5, 2010; another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

I'm taking Vlad the babe in the woods with extreme grain of salt, but wouldn't it be something if Putin genuinely had no idea what was going on in this war and why everyone was pissed off at him?

It would be the latest dumb in a long stream of dumb dumbs out of :ussr:

, that's for sure.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:33

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

CBJSprague24 posted:

I'm taking Vlad the babe in the woods with extreme grain of salt, but wouldn't it be something if Putin genuinely had no idea what was going on in this war and why everyone was pissed off at him?

It would be the latest dumb in a long stream of dumb dumbs out of , that's for sure.

I'm sure he knows he isn't winning, but the article implies that the specifics of why and how badly aren't making it through the Yes Men.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:36

WaltherFeng: May 15, 2013; 50 thousand people used to live here. Now, it's the Mushroom Kingdom.

Putin being misinformed by his advisors is starting to sound more and more like that scene from the film Der Untergang.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:45

Elviscat: Jan 1, 2008; Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

A.o.D. posted:

I gotta say, diagnosing a bunch of conscripts as worthless malingerers from thousands of miles away has some huge lovely NCO energy.

I may be a lovely NCO, but it's very unlikely dudes are getting acute radiation sickness from digging foxholes, especially in the mud.

Even inside the plant near where the biggest concentration of remaining fuel is, rad levels are safe to be exposed to for a significant time. Maybe they're ingesting huge amounts of alpha-emitters in the soil or something, but playing around in labs with chunks of radioisotope seems way more likely.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:50

Kesper North: Nov 3, 2011; EMERGENCY POWER TO PARTY

WaltherFeng posted:

Putin being misinformed by his advisors is starting to sound more and more like that scene from the film Der Untergang.

It just goes to show, you get out what you Putin to it

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:52

madeintaipei: Jul 13, 2012

Elviscat posted:

I may be a lovely NCO, but it's very unlikely dudes are getting acute radiation sickness from digging foxholes, especially in the mud.

Even inside the plant near where the biggest concentration of remaining fuel is, rad levels are safe to be exposed to for a significant time. Maybe they're ingesting huge amounts of alpha-emitters in the soil or something, but playing around in labs with chunks of radioisotope seems way more likely.

It's probably not real.

But if the story freaks out one Russian soldier it's done it's job. Can you imagine? Paranoia, ridicule, life-long nagging doubt.

Lol.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 05:59

BigHead: Jul 25, 2003; Huh?; Nap Ghost

Edit woops I thought I was in one of the other four threads on Ukraine I have bookmarked.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 06:00

That Works: Jul 22, 2006; Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy

Kesper North posted:

It just goes to show, you get out what you Putin to it

Booooo.

Unrelated, I find it hard to believe that Putin is getting the rose colored world view only when he has the internet like anyone else.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 06:31

Quackles: Aug 11, 2018; Pixels of Light.

Kesper North posted:

It just goes to show, you get out what you Putin to it

If Ukraine your neck, you can see a shitpost

# ? Mar 31, 2022 07:16

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Quackles posted:

If Ukraine your neck, you can see a shitpost

Donetsk show your Donbass, Kherson.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 07:29

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

Per the latest ISW update, Russia is pulling troops from training units to send to the meat grinder.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30

# ? Mar 31, 2022 08:02

Raged: Jul 21, 2003; A revolution of beats

psydude posted:

Per the latest ISW update, Russia is pulling troops from training units to send to the meat grinder.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30

Ahhhh the JJ Abrams Star Trek strategy.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 08:32

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

psydude posted:

Per the latest ISW update, Russia is pulling troops from training units to send to the meat grinder.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30

They are so desperate to avoid a general mobilization.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 09:22

WaltherFeng: May 15, 2013; 50 thousand people used to live here. Now, it's the Mushroom Kingdom.

That Works posted:

Booooo.

Unrelated, I find it hard to believe that Putin is getting the rose colored world view only when he has the internet like anyone else.

I don't remember the source but I believe it has been said that Putin does not use even a basic computer, let alone smart devices.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 09:42

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

Yeah, there was a story that Putin was baffled when a kid at a school visit talked to him about the concept of subscribing to a video channel.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 09:51

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

psydude posted:

Per the latest ISW update, Russia is pulling troops from training units to send to the meat grinder.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30

this is actually good because many people were remarking that the russian forces looked significantly over-trained if anything

# ? Mar 31, 2022 10:16

Icon Of Sin: Dec 26, 2008

Would the Russians pick up any extra rads because they were hungry and trying to hunt local wildlife in Chernobyl?

# ? Mar 31, 2022 10:22

That Works: Jul 22, 2006; Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy

WaltherFeng posted:

I don't remember the source but I believe it has been said that Putin does not use even a basic computer, let alone smart devices.

Ah... Weird.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 11:15

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Wingnut Ninja posted:

The cynic in me sees this as just greasing the skids for Putin to go "whoopsie, I didn't mean to do all those awful things, it was just bad intelligence", a la the 2003 Bush administration.

Mind you, I feel like it�s way more embarrassing for Putin, the ex-KGB agent with a reputation for 5D chess mastery to suffer from an intel failure than it was for George Bush, a politician routinely mocked for being an idiot prior to his election. Like, spymastering is supposed to be his whole thing.

steinrokkan posted:

Yeah, there was a story that Putin was baffled when a kid at a school visit talked to him about the concept of subscribing to a video channel.

The full story�s paywalled but the video is still good.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 11:27

IPCRESS: May 27, 2012

Valtonen posted:

Re: Russian rad casualties.

EXTREMELY Unlikely anyone of these guys got anything worse than a headache and .5% worse chance of any-cancer-ever-propability for the next 20 years, But radiation sickness is such a fickle and hard to figure out beast that all it takes is PVT ivan ivanovich reporting headache and starshyu specialist Vladimir say that its radiation poisoning and that his foxhole bottom has weird metal that is *totes* buried old soviet bulldozers that are irradiated and the entire battalion gets acute placebo symptoms. Then a rudimentary geiger counter check on Any ticking on PFC starshyu Sergei show elevated radiation levels (bc he happened to dig a foxhole on a low ground and disturbed a bit of irradiated terrain) and Now Russian e-4mafia has everyone in panic that half the brigade will die or zombie mutate Any day now.

If they're digging trenches through the layer of sand dumped over whatever joyous stuff the liquidators left behind, they won't be getting the doses measured prior to the war. Make some fraction of that respirable dust and you'll be pretty poorly pretty quickly.

I would not bet on the Russian military having potable water anywhere in theatre (unless it's coming from a Ukrainian water network), so they're probably drinking whatever water they can find. In that part of the world, probably rotten with Cs. That ends with a Ron Perlman voice over and a hermetically sealed coffin*.

That said, I agree with you that it's BS, just for different reasons:

The thing that makes the whole story ring false is the part where the Russians bussed their afflicted troops out to get medical care.

* Or a cardboard box when the scrap value of the zinc is too alluring for the supply officer.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 11:28

Radical 90s Wizard: Aug 5, 2008; ~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~

I hope all the conscripts got together and were like "If we all say we're sick, they have to do something " and now they are back just chilling back in Belarus :unsmith:

# ? Mar 31, 2022 11:41

Stultus Maximus: Dec 21, 2009; USPOL May

Marshal Prolapse posted:

They are so desperate to avoid a general mobilization.

Have they implemented stop-loss and started sending personnel from the navy and air force into ground roles yet?

# ? Mar 31, 2022 11:50

SerthVarnee: Mar 13, 2011; It has been ~~two~~ zero days since last incident.; Big Super Slapstick Hunk

Their air force has regularly been sent directly into the ground yes.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 11:59

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

SerthVarnee posted:

Their air force has regularly been sent directly into the ground yes.

Nice.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 12:13

orange juche: Mar 14, 2012

IPCRESS posted:

If they're digging trenches through the layer of sand dumped over whatever joyous stuff the liquidators left behind, they won't be getting the doses measured prior to the war. Make some fraction of that respirable dust and you'll be pretty poorly pretty quickly.

I would not bet on the Russian military having potable water anywhere in theatre (unless it's coming from a Ukrainian water network), so they're probably drinking whatever water they can find. In that part of the world, probably rotten with Cs. That ends with a Ron Perlman voice over and a hermetically sealed coffin*.

That said, I agree with you that it's BS, just for different reasons:

The thing that makes the whole story ring false is the part where the Russians bussed their afflicted troops out to get medical care.

* Or a cardboard box when the scrap value of the zinc is too alluring for the supply officer.

It's only been 34 years since Chernobyl, so radiation from Cs-137 has decayed a little over half from its incident peak. More than enough to gently caress someone up if they kick up big dust clouds and or inhale poo poo into their lungs from what was buried by the liquidators. If they've been loving around digging trenches for a month I could see some people getting sick from radiation.

The work crews who go near the reactor safely respect that radiation is a silent killer, wear dosimeters and do everything they can to avoid stirring up additional radiation into the air in the form of dust and other poo poo, and they still have strict time limits they're allowed within certain radiuses of reactor 4 and surrounding structures while working due to dose limitations.

Russian conscripts aren't going to know how deadly radiation is or know anything about it, so they're probably glowing a bit more than the average plant worker.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 12:17

That Works: Jul 22, 2006; Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy

orange juche posted:

It's only been 34 years since Chernobyl, so radiation from Cs-137 has decayed a little over half from its incident peak. More than enough to gently caress someone up if they kick up big dust clouds and or inhale poo poo into their lungs from what was buried by the liquidators. If they've been loving around digging trenches for a month I could see some people getting sick from radiation.

The work crews who go near the reactor safely respect that radiation is a silent killer, wear dosimeters and do everything they can to avoid stirring up additional radiation into the air in the form of dust and other poo poo, and they still have strict time limits they're allowed within certain radiuses of reactor 4 and surrounding structures while working due to dose limitations.

Russian conscripts aren't going to know how deadly radiation is or know anything about it, so they're probably glowing a bit more than the average plant worker.

This.

I also suspect having some shelling and heavy machinery going around is kicking up a ton of dust that everyone's inhaling putting sources into direct exposure to lungs, eyes etc.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 12:21

orange juche: Mar 14, 2012

People who say that oh it's no big deal do not know how loving deadly cesium 137 is, even 34 years on, it is still 1.4 million curies worth of radiation in the zone around Chernobyl. A single curie of Cs137 is 1/100 of a gram, about equivalent to a pinch of salt.

Go and pinch some salt out into the palm of your hand and imagine that that pinch of salt is decaying at a rate of 3.7 x 10¹⁰ disintegrations per second, for 30 years, spitting out beta particles and gamma rays with every decay, and every decay is an atomic rifle bullet aimed at your cells. Put that poo poo inside your lungs, you really don't need much, even 1 half life removed from the incident to turn your lungs into a loving disaster area.

How much dust you suck up and how quickly you do it determines whether you get lung cancer in 5 years vs your lungs shredding themselves as your lung cells fall apart from acute exposure.

E: also to say nothing of the fact that cesium loves water, it is readily oxidized by water and a small amount will heavily contaminate a large amount of groundwater, so if the Russian troops are drinking rainwater runoff from storms thinking that water purification tablets are enough, that's even more cesium they're putting in themselves.

orange juche fucked around with this message at 13:03 on Mar 31, 2022

# ? Mar 31, 2022 12:50

VictualSquid: Feb 29, 2012; Gently enveloping the target with indiscriminate love.

orange juche posted:

It's only been 34 years since Chernobyl, so radiation from Cs-137 has decayed a little over half from its incident peak. More than enough to gently caress someone up if they kick up big dust clouds and or inhale poo poo into their lungs from what was buried by the liquidators. If they've been loving around digging trenches for a month I could see some people getting sick from radiation.

The work crews who go near the reactor safely respect that radiation is a silent killer, wear dosimeters and do everything they can to avoid stirring up additional radiation into the air in the form of dust and other poo poo, and they still have strict time limits they're allowed within certain radiuses of reactor 4 and surrounding structures while working due to dose limitations.

Russian conscripts aren't going to know how deadly radiation is or know anything about it, so they're probably glowing a bit more than the average plant worker.

The radiation is also totally strangely distributed.
There is that video of bionerd where she eats apples from the red forest and explains why that is totally safe. And then she explains why the moss around the tree, cherries or especially mushrooms would totally gently caress you up.
The random russian conscripts who don't even know they are near chernobyl, might absolutely do some foraging beside digging their trenches.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 12:54

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Stultus Maximus posted:

Have they implemented stop-loss and started sending personnel from the navy and air force into ground roles yet?

I haven't heard about it yet.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 13:20

Xakura: Jan 10, 2019; A safety-conscious little mouse!

AFAIK contracts/conscriptions run out soon, so it's a decision they'll have to make

# ? Mar 31, 2022 14:11

A.o.D.: Jan 15, 2006

Marshal Prolapse posted:

I haven't heard about it yet.

I think that's a reference to the peak bullshit inflicted on the US's military during the recent forever war

# ? Mar 31, 2022 14:13

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

SerthVarnee posted:

Their air force has regularly been sent directly into the ground yes.

I had not heard that. Citation?

# ? Mar 31, 2022 14:17

Oxygenpoisoning: Feb 21, 2006

Cimber posted:

I had not heard that. Citation?

I took it as a joke that they are being shot down on a regular basis.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 14:24

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

Oxygenpoisoning posted:

I took it as a joke that they are being shot down on a regular basis.

I should have more coffee before replying.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 14:27

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 21:37

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Naval infantry have been popping up in Ukraine, yeah. Likely guys intended originally for something around Odessa, but appeared to have been deployed to help the fight for Mariupol.

Also saw a pic where someone had collected a bunch of kuznetsov uniform patches, for whatever that is worth.

# ? Mar 31, 2022 14:48

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