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Shiroc
May 16, 2009

Sorry I'm late

Looking at China having covid completely under control for two years until the idiocy of the rest of the world started to break down their walls.

The real victim here?

Small business owners.

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Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?
Why take any precautions for anything, when accidents still happen?

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?
:china:

https://www.reuters.com./world/china/china-reports-1506-new-covid-cases-april-2-vs-2129-day-earlier-2022-04-03/ posted:

Shanghai asks entire city to self-test for COVID as frustration grows

SHANGHAI, April 3 (Reuters) - Shanghai on Sunday ordered its 26 million residents to undergo two more rounds of tests for COVID-19 as public anger grows over how authorities in China's most populous city are tackling a record coronavirus surge.

Residents should self-test on Sunday using antigen kits and report any positive results
, Shanghai government officials told a news conference, while a nucleic acid test would be conducted citywide on Monday.

"The main task is to completely eliminate risk points and to cut off the chain of transmission so that we can curb the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible," said Wu Qianyu, an inspector from Shanghai Municipal Health Commission.

Essentially all of China's financial capital is locked down after the city began curbing movement in its eastern districts last Monday, extending the restrictions to the entire city days later
(..)
Most of Shanghai's infections have been asymptomatic, according to official data, but China's "dynamic clearance" approach requires authorities to test, trace and centrally quarantine all positive cases.

Shanghai on Sunday reported 7,788 daily locally transmitted asymptomatic cases, up from 6,501 the day before, while symptomatic cases rose to 438 from 260.

The city accounted for the bulk of mainland China's 11,781 daily locally transmitted asymptomatic cases and nearly one-third of its 1,506 symptomatic cases.
This was the highest national case count since the early days of the pandemic in February 2020.

China is also battling a large outbreak in the northeastern province of Jilin.

Sent to Shanghai by the central government, Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan urged the city on Saturday to "make resolute and swift moves" to curb the pandemic.
(..)

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

I'm pretty sure that Milos hasn't actually taken a look at what's happening in South Korea and Hong Kong


https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...country=KOR~HKG

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Trixie Hardcore posted:

Buying high-quality condoms for the raw orgy just in case I find out mid gently caress that some attendees have gonorrhea

*made from high‐quality sheep intestine

BIG-DICK-BUTT-FUCK
Jan 26, 2016

by Fluffdaddy
THOUGHTS & PRAYERS TO THE BRAVE CITIZENS OF CHINA .... CRUSH THE VIRUS AND THE HATERS!!!

jinx_player
Aug 25, 2018

Put a mask on your ugly loving face, dummy.

aRudeTeen
Jul 13, 2003

https://twitter.com/MyKBO/status/1510141293262897157

CGI Stardust
Nov 7, 2010


Brexit is but a door,
election time is but a window.

I'll be back
i don't think these have been posted in the last few days? provides some more support for SARS-CoV-2 doing unpleasant things to brains
https://twitter.com/ToshiAkima/status/1510056364940611584?s=20&t=qAa40C0pfhg4WrYFRS4oCw
Neuropathology and virus in brain of SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates
https://twitter.com/ToshiAkima/status/1510060000500396033
SARS-CoV-2 spike protein induces cognitive deficit and anxiety-like behavior in mouse via non-cell autonomous hippocampal neuronal death

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
I Am Not A Doctor but my understanding of the research is that the vast majority of people are more likely to be deficient in vitamin d than otherwise (do you live north of louisiana?) and you have to really try to gently caress yourself up from supplementation, like beyond 10,000iu a day (https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/research/#circulating-vitamin-d-levels_supplementation)

Greg Legg
Oct 6, 2004

Bar Ran Dun posted:

No kids is easy mode tho.

My wife and I both sort of understand that if/when it hits our family it will most likely be something my son brings home from preschool. He wears a child size kn95, and he's the only one in a mask, but they do snack and stuff.

Respect to the folks that can keep up the home schooling. It is something we have discussed but lucky for us we have another year and a half before kindergarten and don't have to make the decision right now.

My life in February of 2020 seems so easy now thinking back on it. Everything is so different. Oh well, lol.

T-Paine
Dec 12, 2007

Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.
https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1510510008282267649
Not going to read beyond that because I'm already pissed off enough

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

We've been staggering along remote/homeschooling + maintaining two incomes since the start of the pandemic and it's becoming increasingly untenable. In part this is because the recent normalization of COVID infections undercut accommodations we'd received from work making it sort of possible. Even then both the quality of education and our job performance has been very mediocre. And we still got infected in the January Omicron peak anyway!

We were really counting on schools being safe once both our kids were vaccinated, but instead they removed the mask mandates and are acting like COVID doesn't exist. It is incredibly disappointing.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy
Lol "adjust your personal risk". but we are gonna suppress the data about covid and stop all testing and Oh yeah rents due so go wait some tables and let these boomers cough in your face or you will be homeless

T-Paine
Dec 12, 2007

Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.

Rutibex posted:

Lol "adjust your personal risk". but we are gonna suppress the data about covid and stop all testing and Oh yeah rents due so go wait some tables and let these boomers cough in your face or you will be homeless
I like to imagine the full quote is "It's OK to go back to living as you did pre-pandemic, being used and abused by your betters in an inescapable cycle of poverty that is now a bit less potentially devastating than it was only a year ago"

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005


as a layperson, I’m seldom able to tell whether things like this mean “this virus isn’t great to great” or “100% dead or disabled in 5 years”

Pink Mist
Sep 28, 2021

T-Paine posted:

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1510510008282267649
Not going to read beyond that because I'm already pissed off enough

quote:

"Lifting mitigation strategies now can be especially difficult for those who work in health-care settings, have lost individuals to COVID-19 or are high-risk of severe disease."

You may find it difficult to open biden if you remember that covid kills people

T-Paine
Dec 12, 2007

Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.

Pink Mist posted:

You may find it difficult to open biden if you remember that covid kills people

The best thing about all these articles is how they refer to people who are still concerned about covid with an avuncular yet unserious tone, like we're loons but we're harmless loons they kind of like. Those gosh darn maskers and their paranoia! So cute

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

T-Paine posted:

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1510510008282267649
Not going to read beyond that because I'm already pissed off enough

lol

quote:

For example, if you've only been an outdoor diner at restaurants, you might weigh going indoors, Malani says — keeping in mind that there are ways to minimize any potential COVID exposure.

"Maybe go when it's not super-crowded, sit in the corner where fewer people are crowded up against you or at a table where you're not that close to other people, wear a mask when you're not eating," she suggests. She also recommends picking a restaurant with good ventilation — "it matters a lot" in terms of disrupting the flow of exhaled pathogens. "I'm thinking of restaurants with high ceilings and open windows, not a cramped basement."

the doc they got to convince you to eat at restaurants is an infectious disease expert on transplants

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

The other thing that humanity has to keep in mind is that we all have to respect each other's choices. "The big message is that at this point [if you live in an area] with levels low, everyone has to evaluate their own risk, their own family's risk," says Weatherhead. And those decisions, she stresses, "should be respected" by all.

lol

T-Paine
Dec 12, 2007

Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.
If you're going to try and recreate the human centipede but mouth to mouth instead of rear end to mouth, do it with a person who doesn't have a runny nose or cough to minimize your chances of infection

Jokerpilled Drudge
Jan 27, 2010

by Pragmatica

fosborb posted:

lol

the doc they got to convince you to eat at restaurants is an infectious disease expert on transplants

love to talk about restauranting like it's some kind of vital therapy

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Jokerpilled Drudge posted:

love to talk about restauranting like it's some kind of vital therapy

It's vital for capitalism

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
The Dam has broken.

The Eagle has landed.

The Wave is here.

COVID is mild

*Reporting on a weekend is this bad, oooo boy.

https://twitter.com/patricklsimpson/status/1510607922698633227?s=20&t=Wx2Hwfuzapy37XbdhcFRCg

The 7 day admissions average is higher than it was last Sunday in 18 states - and is up double digits in KY/FL/PA/NY/AR/MT/MD

The 7 Day case average is up for the 6th day in a row.

COVID Hospitalizations are up in 16 states.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


imagine if we all did this with wild type and didn’t let it mutate out of control to become possibly an unstoppable force of nature. oh well.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Philippines update:



pre:
    Date         Cases/day, 7-day avg     Active Cases     Tests Conducted      Positivity
Oct-25-2021       4,860                    57,763           47.7k                9.0%
Oct-26-2021       4,848                    53,642           35.2k                8.5%
Oct-30-2021       4,604                    47,690           50.7k                7.8%
Nov-02-2021       3,854                    40,786           29.6k                6.8%
Nov-07-2021       2,276                    33,526           48.4k                5.2%
Nov-14-2021       1,966                    28,102           40.9k                3.9%
Nov-21-2021       1,308                    20,831           39.8k                2.8%
Nov-28-2021         809                    16,630           34.2k                2.4%
Dec-06-2021         397                    13,548           32.6k                1.7%
Dec-13-2021         235                    11,083           35.8k                1.1%
Dec-20-2021         132                     9,592           28.4k                0.8%
Dec-25-2021         118                     9,376           25.7k                1.6%
Dec-29-2021         286                    10,418           27.6k                4.5%
Dec-30-2021         479                    11,772           30.9k                6.6%
Dec-31-2021         849                    14,233           30.5k               10.3%
Jan-01-2022       1,300                    17,374           29.2k               14.8%
Jan-02-2022       1,898                    21,418           26.1k               19.6%
Jan-04-2022       3,144                    29,809           24.8k               26.2%
Jan-06-2022       6,808                    56,561           59.8k               36.9%
Jan-08-2022      12,769                   102,017           77.0k               43.7%
Jan-10-2022      20,387                   157,526           73.2k               46.0%
Jan-12-2022      26,698                   208,164           63.9k               45.7%
Jan-14-2022      31,264                   265,509           81.7k               47.3%
Jan-16-2022      34,278                   287,856           81.3k               47.4%
Jan-18-2022      34,859                   284,458           51.7k               43.4%
Jan-20-2022      33,152                   275,364           73.9k               43.3%
Jan-22-2022      31,306                   280,619           68.0k               45.1%
Jan-24-2022      28,526                   262,997           59.8k               40.6%
Jan-26-2022      25,952                   230,410           48.7k               35.8%
Jan-28-2022      22,058                   231,658           62.6k               34.6%
Jan-30-2022      18,352                   202,774           56.0k               31.4%
Feb-01-2022      15,717                   176,053           31.0k               28.8%
Feb-03-2022      13,144                   153,335           42.4k               25.5%
Feb-05-2022      10,382                   136,436           40.0k               23.3%
Feb-07-2022       8,026                   116,720           36.7k               19.1%
Feb-09-2022       6,554                    96,326           29.9k               16.5%
Feb-11-2022       5,233                    91,147           32.7k               14.7%
Feb-13-2022       3,958                    81,934           31.4k               11.7%
Feb-15-2022       3,186                    72,302           20.0k               10.4%
Feb-17-2022       2,745                    66,588           29.3k                9.7%
Feb-19-2022       2,340                    62,533           27.7k                7.9%
Feb-21-2022       1,940                    58,657           25.0k                7.5%
Feb-23-2022       1,587                    55,449           24.5k                6.1%
Feb-25-2022       1,423                    55,140           28.0k                5.6%
Feb-27-2022       1,263                    52,961           25.3k                5.0%
Mar-01-2022       1,253                    51,592           18.7k                4.3%
Mar-03-2022       1,080                    50,458           27.1k                4.5%
Mar-05-2022         951                    49,374           26.7k                3.8%
Mar-07-2022         893                    48,422                                    
Mar-09-2022         766                    47,471                                    
Mar-11-2022         539                    47,116                                    
Mar-13-2022         456                    46,537                                    
Mar-14-2022         434                    46,256                                    
Mar-16-2022         398                    45,447                                    
Mar-18-2022         525                    45,491                                    
Mar-20-2022         506                    45,201                                    
Mar-22-2022         472                    44,764                                    
Mar-24-2022         451                    44,573                                    
Mar-26-2022         421                    43,486                                    
Mar-28-2022         383                    41,846                                    
Mar-30-2022         362                    40,412                                    
Apr-01-2022         338                    38,320                                    
Apr-03-2022         376                    35,967                                    
Notes:

- the positivity rate for the week of Mar-13 to Mar-19 was reportedly 2.7%
- the positivity rate for the week of Mar-20 to Mar-26 was reportedly 2.2%
- the positivity rate for the week of Mar-27 to Apr-02 was reportedly 2.0%

Apr-03 is the first day so far where the seven-day average's trend has reversed and is now noticeably higher than the day previous - where the average was 329 cases/day on Apr-02, it is now 376 cases/day as of Apr-03

This reflects the fact that the single-day cases/day has been increasing slowly. To take a two-week slice:

pre:
Date          Confirmed new cases
2022-03-21     408
2022-03-22     289
2022-03-23     401
2022-03-24     437
2022-03-25     409
2022-03-26     435
2022-03-27     326
2022-03-28     385

2022-03-29     240
2022-03-30     308
2022-03-31     321
2022-04-01     353
2022-04-02     370
2022-04-03     661
I've spaced it out so you can see it clearer, but since Mar-29 the number of cases has been slowly ticking up.

The next couple of days is going to tell us if this holds, but to revisit my prediction from Mar-24:

gradenko_2000 posted:

writing this down to see if it ever comes true later:

Alpha's wave peaked in the Philippines at around April 15, 2021
Delta's wave peaked at around September 15, 2021
Omicron's wave peaked at around January 15, 2022

this gives us five months between Alpha and Delta on the high-end,
and four months between Delta and Omicron on the low-end

this means that we could be seeing the peak of another surge right around May 15 to June 15, 2022

but that's the peak, when did the surge start?
for the Alpha wave, there was maybe a month's lag-time from cases just starting to visibly increase, to cases peaking
for the Delta wave, same thing
for the Omicron wave, it was something like two week between cases starting to tick up, to cases peaking

that suggests a window of April 15 to May 1, for seeing whether cases are going to go up again

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Pillowpants posted:

The Dam has broken.

The Eagle has landed.

The Wave is here.

COVID is mild
:theroni:

gradenko_2000 posted:

Philippines update:
What’s y’all’s testing access like? Are they gutting it like they are in the US/UK/elsewhere?

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

Insanite posted:

The other thing that humanity has to keep in mind is that we all have to respect each other's choices. "The big message is that at this point [if you live in an area] with levels low, everyone has to evaluate their own risk, their own family's risk," says Weatherhead. And those decisions, she stresses, "should be respected" by all.

lol

I know I keep harping on this, but there is a whole field of epidemiologists available who have worked directly with covid, so why do they keep doing this doctor of infectious diseases specifically infection paths of roundworm and quote them about assessing family risk of dining out?

it just seems bizarrely orthogonal. I mean, I guess it's better than all the old white AIDS docs they used to interview for these pieces, but wtf. how are they getting connected to reporters?

at least the third doc in the article, Dr Abraar Karan, has actually done anything at all with covid

"I was involved in Biden-Harris campaign's Covid-19 policy writing for school reopenings."

too bad he's an rear end in a top hat

Sunny Side Up
Jun 22, 2004

Mayoist Third Condimentist

Trixie Hardcore posted:

Do you have any idea how much I hate knowing loving anything about covid? Someone mentions gi issues my brain brings up an article, vitamin D, just read a study, ventilation questions, I got answers. I don’t want to know any of this dumb covid bullshit but my brain is stuffed with it. Dumb loving shithead pandemic, viruses are gross and I hate them.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
COVID admissions

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

fosborb posted:

I know I keep harping on this, but there is a whole field of epidemiologists available who have worked directly with covid, so why do they keep doing this doctor of infectious diseases specifically infection paths of roundworm and quote them about assessing family risk of dining out?

it just seems bizarrely orthogonal. I mean, I guess it's better than all the old white AIDS docs they used to interview for these pieces, but wtf. how are they getting connected to reporters?

at least the third doc in the article, Dr Abraar Karan, has actually done anything at all with covid

"I was involved in Biden-Harris campaign's Covid-19 policy writing for school reopenings."

too bad he's an rear end in a top hat
They may genuinely not know that the doc’s roundworm expertise doesn’t apply to covid.

The same reason why a lot of people are happy about Ashish Jha replacing Zients. “He’s a dean of public health at an Ivy!” (He has zero infectious disease expertise and his public health work has been largely about policy. He also thinks Emily Oster does good work.)

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


sure seems like the question of "how high does R0 need to be before containment is impossible using testing-triggered lockdowns", which nobody wanted empirically answered, has been answered now.


dammit.

i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

T-Paine posted:

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1510510008282267649
Not going to read beyond that because I'm already pissed off enough

“personal risk” is one of those evil america wordings

Foo Diddley
Oct 29, 2011

cat

i am harry posted:

“personal risk” is one of those evil america wordings

just spreading a deadly disease to everyone i meet 'cuz i've decided that this was an acceptable level of personal risk

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

T-Paine posted:

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1510510008282267649
Not going to read beyond that because I'm already pissed off enough



i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

exactly, it further atomizes people from each other in this hosed up whatever-the-word-for-the-opposite-of-society-is

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

please don’t opt out of needless consumerism

T-Paine
Dec 12, 2007

Sitting in the Costco food court unmasked, Bible in hand, reading my favorite Psalms to my five children: Abel, Bethany, Carlos, Carlos, and Carlos.

i am harry posted:

exactly, it further atomizes people from each other in this hosed up whatever-the-word-for-the-opposite-of-society-is

The framing is that we're responsible for our own risk calculations because this absolves the government of its responsibility to keep us safe and foists the blame for getting sick onto the victim. It's victim-blaming manufactured consent during a plague

T-Paine has issued a correction as of 15:34 on Apr 3, 2022

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

wear a lovely cloth mask when not eating. be sure to set your timer for 15 minutes when you are eating.

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fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

plausible deniability when you kill grandma


i̳̥̙͔͇̞̻ w̬͘as̢̙̰̤̺͈̻ ̪͖͈̜̭b̵̦̱͔̬̜̩͕e̼̯ḭ̛͕̲͕ͅng̜͕̣̹̦̲̖ ҉͚̜̜͚̼̘̱c̵͔͈̙̤̠ar͙̰͍e̸f͙̯̩̼̮̬ͅu̟͝l̪̮͉̳̠ ̢͓̦̫͍̻̬̩

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