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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The U.S. is still trying to walk a tightrope of applying sanctions that punish Putin, but don't seriously impact the Russian oil and gas production industry that makes up most of its economy. It's explicitly, even in the tweet you're quoting, not the only thing in this sanctions package.
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Apr 6, 2022 18:24
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Discendo Vox posted:It's explicitly, even in the tweet you're quoting, not the only thing in this sanctions package. Literally none of it will improve the lives of any American voters so it’s a wash anyway. Big ole WHO CARE imo. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 6, 2022 18:31
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selec posted:Literally none of it will improve the lives of any American voters so it’s a wash anyway. Big ole WHO CARE imo. People with friends and family in Ukraine?
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Apr 6, 2022 18:31
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:People with friends and family in Ukraine? Is that a major voting bloc? And arguably, even then it does nothing for them, because nobody can tie sanctions to any concrete action or positive outcome. Taking food out of a Russian’s mouth doesn’t put it into anyone else’s. It’s thoughts and prayers at best, for that very small group.
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Apr 6, 2022 18:36
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Elections have consequences apparently. https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1511697784252022788?s=20
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Apr 6, 2022 18:36
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The DOE is going to the wipe the defaults and missed payments of every person with a default or missed payment on their student loan record. This includes all private student loans that were guaranteed by the federal government prior to Obamacare. This isn't the "doing something" regarding student debt they said would need to happen before they restart payments, so that implies: 1) That whatever their "something" standard is will likely be more impactful than this (good sign, because it was possible that they would do something like this, declare victory, and consider it "done") and 2) That whatever the "something" is, it won't be 100% forgiveness of any amount for everyone because this move is part of a plan to make it easier for people to eventually restart payments (I don't think anyone realistically thought Biden was going to cancel 100% of all debt for everyone, but this is essentially a 99% confirmation that there isn't a plan for unlimited/total forgiveness of any amount of debt for everyone) They are going to also be announcing new plans for "additional flexibilities and support for all borrowers" throughout the rest of the year. https://twitter.com/mstratford/status/1511707576907583493 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Apr 6, 2022 |
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Apr 6, 2022 19:37
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selec posted:Literally none of it will improve the lives of any American voters so it’s a wash anyway. Big ole WHO CARE imo. I care.
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Apr 6, 2022 19:54
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Just in case you were worried that the fundamentals couldn't be any worse for the midterms: The Fed is planning to double it's interest rate increases and even more quickly wind down the amount of assets it holds and end its QE program. It's not as bad a 1979 where they went "inflation is out of control and the only thing we can do is force a huge recession to stop it from spiraling out of control," but it is basically the equivalent of 2.5 years of interest rates increases during a booming economy to tamp down on inflation/bubbles, except they are doing that in 9 months. The Fed is basically feeling pressure to "do something" about inflation, but they can't directly impact the cause of most of the inflation, so they are doubling down on impacting the causes of inflation they can control. If this is successful, they expect it to bring inflation down closer towards 6% by the end of the year and 4.5% to 5% by the end of 2023. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1511777943462289409
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Apr 6, 2022 20:05
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Just in case you were worried that the fundamentals couldn't be any worse for the midterms: The Fed is planning to double it's interest rate increases and even more quickly wind down the amount of assets it holds and end its QE program. The thing that consistently blows my mind about the inflation narrative is that people will often say that giving people more money is the incentive for private companies to raise prices to fulfill their fiduciary duty to maximize profit and place the blame on the government for doing something, anything at all, even if it's woefully insufficient rather than on the government not enacting price controls alongside social aid programs. Of course we know this is an intentional blindspot that's purposefully created to serve as a major part of the "socialism bad" narrative that's been pushed since the world wars but it's so frustrating to see people - otherwise intelligent, rational people especially - mimic the behavior of a Westworld host and just default to a generic subroutine of "it's the government's fault" after immediately describing exactly how capitalist societies function.
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Apr 6, 2022 20:11
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We should definitely tighten monetary policy to fix this inflation that is not caused by loose monetary policy. Surely this will work.
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Apr 6, 2022 20:24
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Lib and let die posted:The thing that consistently blows my mind about the inflation narrative is that people will often say that giving people more money is the incentive for private companies to raise prices to fulfill their fiduciary duty to maximize profit and place the blame on the government for doing something, anything at all, even if it's woefully insufficient rather than on the government not enacting price controls alongside social aid programs. The Fed isn't blaming government policy for inflation. What is essentially happening is (in an oversimplified breakdown): - Inflation is high globally because of a huge demand spike (the world mostly opening back up at the same time following 2020 and early 2021) happening simultaneously with a huge supply shortfall (supply chain issues, energy shortages, disruptions from Ukraine/China/Russia). - During Covid, the Fed made it basically free to borrow money and purchased a lot of treasury bills as a stimulus program. Those actions increase inflation, but inflation was low at the time because demand for many goods + incomes had collapsed almost completely with businesses shut down. - There is currently an inflation rate of about 7.6%. About 1% to 1.5% of that 7.6% is attributable to monetary policy that is specific to U.S. (as opposed to the global inflation currently hitting every country and currency). - The Fed wants to "do something" about inflation, but they only have direct control over 1% to 1.5% of that 7.6% total. - So, they are going to use the tools they have to go very hard against the 1% to 1.5% they have direct control over in an attempt to get that 7.6% down closer to the 6% to 6.6% range to just have some kind of an impact. - They are overcorrecting a little bit because they underestimated how long the supply chain issues would last/how many other disruptions there would be.
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Apr 6, 2022 20:26
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Lib and let die posted:The thing that consistently blows my mind about the inflation narrative is that people will often say that giving people more money is the incentive for private companies to raise prices to fulfill their fiduciary duty to maximize profit and place the blame on the government for doing something, anything at all, even if it's woefully insufficient rather than on the government not enacting price controls alongside social aid programs. *Gets shown a profit sheet for health insurance companies* doesn't look like anything to me
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Apr 6, 2022 20:28
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Ghost Leviathan posted:They are going to completely eat poo poo the moment voters read the (D) on the ballots. Republican rhetoric and policy is total war. Oh, I don't doubt that for one minute. I'm just making the point that the party is still all in on blue dogging in Red states. Imitation Republican never wins, but by god we're going to run people who swear up and down they are just as anti-civil rights and hateful toward women as the GOP.
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Apr 6, 2022 20:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The Fed isn't blaming government policy for inflation. What is essentially happening is (in an oversimplified breakdown): You left out how a lot of this "inflation" is just companies padding margins to make up up for lost profit's from the pandemic. As for supply chain.....most of south china is currently locked down and we haven't yet hit the supply shock from that.
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Apr 6, 2022 20:36
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I just hope the Fed manages to crash the housing market along with everything else so my wife and I can finally afford to stop renting. Plus I long to see housing speculators eat poo poo.
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Apr 6, 2022 20:40
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:*Gets shown a profit sheet for health insurance companies* Profit sheets probably get a "Have you ever seen anything so full of splendor?"
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Apr 6, 2022 20:46
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Jaxyon posted:You left out how a lot of this "inflation" is just companies padding margins to make up up for lost profit's from the pandemic. Yeah, that is part of the non "1% to 1.5%" the Fed has control over. I was talking about the Fed's specific rationale. The vast majority of the inflation is not related to Fed policy, but some of it is and they are going hard to bring that small percent down. If you only care about long-term inflation and think it could spiral wildly out of control, then it is a good thing. But, you could also argue that it is like selling all of your furniture because you bought a $5 million house that you couldn't afford. Yes, that will technically help you get closer to paying it off, but you are also dramatically reducing your quality of life and not addressing the main reason your expenses have suddenly gone up $10,000 per month. VikingofRock posted:I just hope the Fed manages to crash the housing market along with everything else so my wife and I can finally afford to stop renting. Plus I long to see housing speculators eat poo poo. Rapidly rising interest rates will jack up mortgage rates. That will decrease demand on the housing market and make it less profitable to speculate, but the housing supply in the U.S. is so far behind its population increase, that the high-demand real estate markets like NYC, SF, and the other top 25 metro areas aren't going to see a significant drop in demand from it. The best way to own an affordable house in the U.S. is either: - Move to an exurban or non-major urban metro area (Detroit, Cleveland, Memphis, Baltimore, Wilmington, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Wichita, Lincoln, or Des Moines). or - Wait until ~2043 when the U.S. birth rate and immigration shortage ends up changing demographics enough that there will be a positive housing to population ratio (assuming there isn't another baby boom, mass immigration event, or mass destruction of houses in the next 5-10 years) and prices crash. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Apr 6, 2022 |
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Apr 6, 2022 20:46
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The Israeli government just collapsed. One MK switched sides and left the coalition government to support bringing Netanyahu back. The Knesset is out of session right now, but there is no way that Naftali Bennet can find another MK to keep the government and it will be very hard for Netanyahu to form a majority, so the government is likely going to collapse and force new elections in a month. Right in the middle of lobbying the U.S. over the new Iran deal. https://www.axios.com/israeli-government-coalition-collapse-21df1f2e-3f52-4369-b426-31d9a995d2bc.html
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Apr 6, 2022 21:16
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lol, a pro-Lamb PAC used GOP quotes to attack Fetterman before Fetterman shamed them into taking the ad down. The PAC is led by a guy who has CIGNA insurance as a client: quote:Penn Progress’s executive director, Erik Smith, leads a communications firm that works for Cigna, one the nation’s largest health insurers, according to a corporate financial filing. Smith was previously a spokesperson for a health care industry front group campaign created to oppose Medicare for All — and another Penn Progress consultant also worked for the front group. https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/pa-democratic-senate-primary-fetterman-lamb-pac And bad-Dems' favorite lizard, James Carville, is helping to boost the PAC: quote:“I think he’s by far the strongest candidate to win in the general election,” Carville said. ”[Fetterman] has more money and he’s more known,” two things the super PAC will help address, Carville added. He did such a great job boosting Terry McAuliffe last year that I have no doubt he'll do the same in PA & lead Conor Lamb to an electoral slaughter. Lefty Dems facing "moderate" challengers should pay Carville to work for their opponents.
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Apr 6, 2022 22:28
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Fetterman is probably the single most exciting Democratic prospect in the whole country. It's awesome to see Lamb eat poo poo to the point where the party establishment isn't even behind him anymore - probably not just because of his own missteps and unpopular platform, but also because of Fetterman's personal charisma, which can easily outshine even competently-presented bland Ivy League centrism. It'll be really interesting to see where in the state Lamb can put up a fight and where he gets obliterated, especially since there are some real regional rivalries in that state and both candidates are from the same region.
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Apr 6, 2022 22:35
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selec posted:Literally none of it will improve the lives of any American voters so it’s a wash anyway. Big ole WHO CARE imo. You not caring does not obligate the rest of us to pretend that it doesn't matter.
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Apr 6, 2022 22:38
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Discendo Vox posted:You not caring does not obligate the rest of us to pretend that it doesn't matter. If you were to stand outside a correctional facility and ask a freshly released returning citizen what their top three priorities are at this very moment, do you think the Ukraine/Russia conflict would even break the top 3?
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Apr 6, 2022 22:43
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Lib and let die posted:If you were to stand outside a correctional facility and ask a freshly released returning citizen what their top three priorities are at this very moment, do you think the Ukraine/Russia conflict would even break the top 3? how is this a relevant hypothetical? It might be more productive to argue why you think it's not a big deal than appealing to what we think people freshly released might believe.
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Apr 6, 2022 22:47
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Fritz the Horse posted:how is this a relevant hypothetical? It might be more productive to argue why you think it's not a big deal than appealing to what we think people freshly released might believe. Because ultimately, what's important to any given person is completely subjective. If you're, say, living the privileged life of an academic you probably don't have to worry about scarcity, gainful employment, or housing so the scope of "what's important" to you ultimately expands to issues outside of your immediate needs of survival. To a large swath of the population that is mostly disconnected from the news media, there are objectively more important things going on than some formless conflict on the other side of the world.
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Apr 6, 2022 22:50
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Mellow Seas posted:Yeah, there's basically no question that the pollster in question is ideologically centrist, and they were looking for this result. The poll was done by Schoen-Cooperman Research. At that point "moderate" really just means fix things and catering to the liberal left means not fixing things. The Democrats need to thread the needle in their messaging where they get across that they want to fix the police and crime, don't want to do it by defunding the police, but also don't want to just throw money at the problem like your average voter wants because that won't solve these complicated problems. Telling people they will take care of them and explaining it in an easy to understand way has not been the Democrats strong suit but hopefully they're working on it because it's how you win elections.
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Apr 6, 2022 22:52
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Lib and let die posted:Because ultimately, what's important to any given person is completely subjective. If you're, say, living the privileged life of an academic you probably don't have to worry about scarcity, gainful employment, or housing so the scope of "what's important" to you ultimately expands to issues outside of your immediate needs of survival. Which poster stated that it was the most important thing going on?
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Apr 6, 2022 22:54
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I definitely would have preferred the money spent assisting the fascist Zelenskyy had been folded in to covid funds. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 6, 2022 22:55
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Fritz the Horse posted:how is this a relevant hypothetical? It might be more productive to argue why you think it's not a big deal than appealing to what we think people freshly released might believe. How does lib and let die not caring obligate Disco to not care? I think Disco has the flawed and needless argument here. Lib is just posting an opinion which I guess would fall under the post interesting things rules.
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Apr 6, 2022 22:56
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Lib and let die posted:If you're, say, living the privileged life of an academic you probably don't have to worry about scarcity, gainful employment, or housing so the scope of "what's important" to you ultimately expands to issues outside of your immediate needs of survival. I can assure you that quite a lot of academics have worries about scarcity, employment, and housing. Having said that I don't personally think Ukraine poo poo is a top 5 issue for most Americans once the media stops blasting it nonstop.
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Apr 6, 2022 23:00
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Willa Rogers posted:And bad-Dems' favorite lizard, James Carville, is helping to boost the PAC:
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Apr 7, 2022 00:22
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Just got a wire buzz that the Supreme Court struck down parts of the Clean Water Act (5-4) a few minutes ago. Roberts joined the liberals. christ, the robert court's rapanos ruling was already incredibly limiting. finding that there's no regulatory nexus if there's half an inch of sand blocking two bodies of surface water is such horseshit in the next decade we will see this court and its even more partisan successor completely dismantle the mechanisms to enforce the environmental legislation put in place in the 70's
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Apr 7, 2022 02:01
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Very excited to see the conservative Supreme Court somehow accidentally make the military unconstitutional.
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Apr 7, 2022 04:14
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Ethiser posted:Very excited to see the conservative Supreme Court somehow accidentally make the military unconstitutional. That would be good though
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Apr 7, 2022 05:17
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Ethiser posted:Very excited to see the conservative Supreme Court somehow accidentally make the military unconstitutional. I feel like the end result of this would just be total privatization of defense as a concept, so it wouldn't surprise me if that were an eventual goal some of the nuttier ones have.
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Apr 7, 2022 05:33
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Ethiser posted:Very excited to see the conservative Supreme Court somehow accidentally make the military unconstitutional. Nothing the court does will harm conservative causes.
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Apr 7, 2022 06:13
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Hello, I recently noticed that senator Mike Lee introduced legislation to repeal the Davis Bacon act. https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/805 Does anyone here have an idea of the odds of this passing were the republicans to return to power? I consider myself a moderate blue collar type but the idea of this actually happening would be enough to turn me into a single issue democrat voter.
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Apr 7, 2022 06:52
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ellasmith posted:Hello, I recently noticed that senator Mike Lee introduced legislation to repeal the Davis Bacon act. 12 Senate cosponsors, ranging from Cruz to Paul to Scott, is a really bad sign.
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Apr 7, 2022 06:55
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, the robert court's rapanos ruling was already incredibly limiting. finding that there's no regulatory nexus if there's half an inch of sand blocking two bodies of surface water is such horseshit It sounds like they revived the Trump-era rule regarding states' ability to reject permits that impacted the CWA; when Biden came into office, he had asked for the rule to be returned to the agency, which then allowed the prior pre-Trump rule to be in effect. The EPA is currently working on revising the rule, so the Trump-era rule is probably going to be short-lived (at least until January 2025...), but I would imagine the new rule will see lawsuits also.
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Apr 7, 2022 07:05
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We're going vintage with the newest immigration scandal. The DHS Secretary is coming to congress for an unrelated hearing, but Josh Hawley says that they are going to focus the entire 2-hour hearing on the throwback scandal that is sweeping the nation. Obamaphones 2.0 is upon us. As part of the process of ending Title 42, the DHS is expecting a surge of ~400,000 new migrant border crossings. Instead of turning people away, they are phasing in a new system to speed up processing times by letting the low-risk crossers or people with family they can stay with just come into the country, but they have to either take a smart phone or an ankle bracelet to make sure they don't just leave. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1512060372810977283 quote:Biden administration giving cell phones to illegal immigrants https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-administration-giving-cell-phones-to-illegal-immigrants-to-track-and-check-in-with-them https://twitter.com/DarrellIssa/status/1512034683416158213 https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1511790408472403977 https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1511727578247307264 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Apr 7, 2022 |
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Apr 7, 2022 14:56
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, the robert court's rapanos ruling was already incredibly limiting. finding that there's no regulatory nexus if there's half an inch of sand blocking two bodies of surface water is such horseshit Reminder that the Supreme Court is illegitimate and anyone that thinks otherwise is 100% ok with rulings such as this. Included in this absolute statement is the Biden administration all the way down to readers of this very thread. Biden can ignore or pack the Supreme Court if he wanted. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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