GOOD TIMES ON METH posted:

I work from Home and I have a mortgage. I have a gym membership as well and try to go four or five times a week. I have two dogs that go for walks three times a day. I usually drive to the grocery store a few miles away but sometimes, if I feel like something different, I will drive to a different one that is slightly further away. After work I like to relax by playing video games and occasionally going to the local bar. On the weekends I do some cleaning and sometimes play video games or go to the local bar or take my dogs on a longer walk (my town is very walkable).

boop the snoot posted:

Swipe right if you’re looking for something real.

Lifespan posted:

The guy who invented Sex Wax (for surfboards) lived in Colorado but had an agreement from his divorce that he would have to pay large alimony payments if he didn't hold a job up to a certain age and give his wife a cut of his wages. So he stopped taking wages from his own company and got a job as a professor at UC Davis just outside of Sacramento. He taught one single class a week (I think it was organic chemistry?), flying his own plane from Colorado every Friday morning to teach and usually just flying right back home. That is the commute king in my opinion.

Eifert Posting posted:

Seems like an awful lot of work rather than just being 50% of fabulously wealthy.

GOOD TIMES ON METH posted:

I work from Home and I have a mortgage. I have a gym membership as well and try to go four or five times a week. I have two dogs that go for walks three times a day. I usually drive to the grocery store a few miles away but sometimes, if I feel like something different, I will drive to a different one that is slightly further away. After work I like to relax by playing video games and occasionally going to the local bar. On the weekends I do some cleaning and sometimes play video games or go to the local bar or take my dogs on a longer walk (my town is very walkable).

3 DONG HORSE posted:

I've worked in my bedroom or office for the last 5 years. I'm a pre-covid WFH fella.

3 DONG HORSE posted:

I've worked in my bedroom or office for the last 5 years. I'm a pre-covid WFH fella.

GOOD TIMES ON METH posted:

I work from Home and I have a mortgage. I have a gym membership as well and try to go four or five times a week. I have two dogs that go for walks three times a day. I usually drive to the grocery store a few miles away but sometimes, if I feel like something different, I will drive to a different one that is slightly further away. After work I like to relax by playing video games and occasionally going to the local bar. On the weekends I do some cleaning and sometimes play video games or go to the local bar or take my dogs on a longer walk (my town is very walkable).

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Who is the smallest Good(TM) offensive lineman in the league?

Kalli posted:

I was gonna post FO's QBase projections, but it's on ESPN+ and lmao at the idea of someone realizing they're still subscribed to that.

Codependent Poster posted:

I'm pretty sure I have that just because of the Disney+ bundle coming with ESPN+ that I never use.

Codependent Poster posted:

I'm pretty sure I have that just because of the Disney+ bundle coming with ESPN+ that I never use.

quote:

No quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft has emerged as the clear No. 1 -- unlike Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence in previous drafts. And according to Football Outsiders' QBASE 2.0 model, there is statistically no significant difference among the top-five rated quarterbacks in this year's NFL draft.

The model predicts that this year's class is more likely to disappear into obscurity than walk into the Hall of Fame. After all, for every class of 1983, there are years that don't yield any starters (see 2017 and 2013).

Scouts Inc. doesn't project any of this year's quarterbacks highly, which is perhaps why there has been so much action this offseason via trades. The Washington Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, the Denver Broncos for Russell Wilson, the Cleveland Browns for Deshaun Watson and the Indianapolis Colts for Matt Ryan. Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield may also be traded before the 2022 season kicks off.

Yet some teams could still enter the draft desperate for a quarterback; the Steelers, Falcons and Panthers come to mind. Given the extensive discussion in Brian Billick's book "The Q-Factor," we know that drafting a quarterback out of need can lead to red flags being ignored and, say, EJ Manuel becoming a franchise's first-round pick. This year's model should serve as a warning for any general manager thinking of drafting a first-round quarterback out of desperation.

QBASE 2.0 combines Andrew Healy's original QBASE model (2015) with Rosen and Olbrecht's functional mobility model (2018) by factoring in a quarterback's rushing ability while also using his adjusted college passing statistics and adjusted years started. The adjustments consider the quality of both the quarterback's teammates and opponents, and while they reward quarterbacks who have steadily improved over time, they penalize one-year wonders.

Interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward. A value of 0 is replacement level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. Read more about this methodology here.

Here are our projections for the 2022 quarterback class:

1. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 22

Mean projection: 0.00 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A): 49.7%
Adequate starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A): 26.2%
Upper tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A): 16.0%
Elite (>1.5 TDYAR/A): 8.1%

Pickett showed significant improvement last season, displaying better pocket movement and above-average arm strength. In addition, while he lacks Malik Willis's playmaking ability, he has pro-style experience and makes good decisions in general (though many of his throws came off quick reads).

Ultimately, he is more of your typical pocket passer, albeit with some rushing ability, and this better balance is reflected in his lower "bust" rate than Willis. Notwithstanding, the model projects him to be a rather risky pick for a team looking for a franchise quarterback.

2. Matt Corral, Ole Miss

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 34

Mean projection: minus-0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust: 51.0%
Adequate starter: 25.7%
Upper tier: 15.6%
Elite: 7.7%

Scouts view Corral as a relatively fit but slender quarterback who has exhibited the ability to make good throws while anticipating his receivers coming open. In addition, he threw for more than 8,200 yards in college, won the Conerly Trophy in 2021 and was a two-time Manning Award finalist and two-time Davey Award semifinalist. However, Ole Miss' run-pass option offense didn't often require him to make more than quick, relatively simple reads.

As a result, the big question mark is how he will adjust to the significantly more complex NFL game. Our projections are aligned with this hesitancy, but they also give him 23% chance of developing into an upper tier or better starter.

His career trajectory is likely to be determined by the type of situation he is drafted into: Will he fall into the arms of a spread-friendly team?

3. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 36

Mean projection: minus-0.22 TDYAR/A
Bust: 58.9%
Adequate starter: 23.1%
Upper tier: 12.7%
Elite: 5.4%

Ridder was a four-year starter at Cincinnati with dual-threat ability, which are both factors positively correlated with NFL success. However, his completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt declined last year, which hurts his projection.

In addition, scouts have concerns about his accuracy and ball placement. Seen by some scouts as a weaker version of Marcus Mariota or Alex Smith, Ridder enters the draft with a middling projection.

4. Malik Willis, Liberty

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 21

Mean projection: minus-0.26 TDYAR/A
Bust: 59.9%
Adequate starter: 23.0%
Upper tier: 12.2%
Elite: 4.9%

Willis originally played for Auburn but lost the starting job as an incoming junior to true freshman Bo Nix. After transferring to Liberty, however, he displayed excellent physical tools and vaulted up draft boards. Despite displaying the arm strength and mobility required to play at the next level, he has been inconsistent at anticipating receivers coming open and at following progressions, which can result in him breaking the pocket and scrambling too quickly.

Many view him as having the highest upside of this year's class because of his arm talent. But his QBASE 2.0 projection shows the inherent risk that he will not be able to function in the NFL as a pass-first quarterback (though if he plays early on, the offense can be adjusted to highlight his mobility and big-play ability). In the end, he is in line with the other quarterbacks we evaluate: most likely unimpressive but with the potential to exceed expectations.

That said, part of his relatively low projection is due to his Scouts Inc. ranking; if the rumors of him going second overall to the Detroit Lions are true, his projection would jump to 0.28 TDYAR/A.

5. Sam Howell, North Carolina

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 50

Mean projection: minus-0.27 TDYAR/A
Bust: 59.9%
Adequate starter: 23.2%
Upper tier: 12.0%
Elite: 5.0%

A three-year starter at North Carolina, Howell helped his QBASE 2.0 projection by improving his rushing game significantly last season (his rushing yards per attempt increased from 1.6 to 4.5).

However, he also hurt his projection by regressing as a passer (his completion percentage decreased from 68.1 to 62.5). This is why our model still projects him as a relatively risky pick in comparison to the rest of our sample. An interesting question is whether NFL teams will be nervous about North Carolina quarterbacks after what happened with Mitch Trubisky.
6. Carson Strong, Nevada

Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 93

Mean projection: minus-1.67 TDYAR/A
Bust: 93.9%
Adequate starter: 4.8%
Upper tier: 1.1%
Elite: 0.2%

Since the functional mobility model debuted in 2018, NFL teams have increasingly used a college quarterback's rushing ability as a key factor in evaluations. To be clear, pure rushing ability doesn't dictate success by itself, since each quarterback must also have the requisite accuracy, arm strength and intangibles to succeed in the NFL.

However, Strong is a clear demonstration of how QBASE 2.0 will grade a quarterback who put up minus-4.1 rushing yards per attempt in his last college season. This lack of mobility means that he has a very high chance of being a bust.

Is it possible that he could be successful as a classic pocket passer in the right situation? Sure, but it's not likely.

Conclusion

Will a quarterback be a high draft pick this year? Most likely yes, given that need and desperation have historically clouded teams' judgment. And hitting on a quarterback is so important that teams are understandably willing to take bigger risks than with other positions.

But the warning signs this year are strong, with our model projecting that none of these quarterbacks will perform significantly above replacement value. In turn, these low projections mean that our model is less predictive than usual about the order in which these quarterbacks will be drafted, especially considering a team could fall in love with one of them as the New York Giants did with Daniel Jones.

Ultimately, the story of this year's QBASE 2.0 is buyer beware.

That being said, each of the first five quarterbacks listed above has a 15-25% chance of becoming a high-quality starter. Which means that collectively, there is a very good chance one of these quarterbacks outperforms our projections.

Specifically, there's a 28% chance that at least one of them becomes an elite starter and a 68% chance that at least one becomes an upper-tier starter. We just aren't willing to bet on any of them to be the one.

Kalli posted:

Probably like 6'3 300 lbs at this rate. I was thinking, oh someone must be running the Shanahan scheme still and cut blocking some mofos, but nope, even his kid is trotting out the 6'4, 310 lb Alex Mack.

Kalli posted:

I was gonna post FO's QBase projections, but it's on ESPN+ and lmao at the idea of someone realizing they're still subscribed to that.

Codependent Poster posted:

Hot Diggity! posted:

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1513918515589308418

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1513923393988579340

Kalli posted:

Thanks, to give a comparison of what those numbers compare to previous prospects; https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20

To give guys around each prospect:

0.06 Jameis Winston
0.01 Paxton Lynch
0.00 Kenny Pickett
-0.01 Ryan Tannehill
-0.03 Matt Ryan
-0.03 Matt Corral
-0.04 Kevin Kolb

-0.19 Dwayne Haskins
-0.22 Desmond Ridder
-0.26 Mark Sanchez
-0.26 Malik Willis
-0.27 Jimmy G
-0.27 Sam Howell
-0.29 Blaine Gabbert

Oh hey, and a new worst of the worst:
-1.64 Christian Hackenberg
-1.67 Carson Strong

Some notable whiffs by the stat

-0.05 Matthew Stafford
-0.10 Derek Carr
-0.68 Josh Allen

Notable hits: the other 80 guys with negative grades.

Kalli posted:

I'm half expecting nothing to come of this because it'll turn out every owner has been pulling massive accounting tricks to under-report revenue to the league to steal money from the players.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

My feeling as well. Gonna sweep this under the rug and give old Danny another wrist slap for getting caught. This is pretty much the NFL way.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Successfully predicting a negative outcome for a drafted QB is extremely low hanging fruit. The vast minority of these guys will fail. More interesting is false positive and false negatives around success. Looking at the table in that link I wouldn’t say that it seems especially accurate when predicting success.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Successfully predicting a negative outcome for a drafted QB is extremely low hanging fruit. The vast minority of these guys will fail. More interesting is false positive and false negatives around success. Looking at the table in that link I wouldn’t say that it seems especially accurate when predicting success.

fsif posted:

Yeah. I think if your stat can't beat out Walter Football in a mock draft, there's not really much worth sharing.

Why are we paying attention to something that tells us Marcus Mariota and Baker Mayfield were the two best QB prospects of the past 15+ years? Show me the stat that knew Darnold and Rosen were busts while Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott were underappreciated gems.

e: Okay I looked at it and it DID say Rosen was a bust and had Darnold only a bit above replacement level. The stat is good now.