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Willa Rogers posted:Here's the NYT writeup of the economic news that Leon's been summarizing: https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1513885182914449417?t=JVd1OH-HW1mrqc4Progt2A&s=19 Core only dropped because used cars going down slightly dragged that number down. It is a heavily weighted part of the calculations. This was previewed by manheim last night. Cargurus.com is showing that price decrease stopped March 21st and has since reversed.  Services inflation expanded again. Jot a good sign if you want inflation to cool. Typically that section lags goods about 6 months. We should see it continue to be high into August or September. Rent in the cpi report is once again 12 points lower than all independent reporting agencies claim. Redfin has rent at 17% for March. Rent is always different due to how the BLS measures it. Rent is also a lagging indicator and for every month housing prices rise add 6 months. We "lucked out" with the China lockdown forcing down oil prices and putting a small lid on that. The release of the SOR and IEA seemed to have less of an impact than the lockdown. Natural gas is now rising due to the USA eating into its own supply by shipping to europe. China lockdown still had to work its way through the trade system and the affects on goods has even begun. Energy Prices typically still rise in the summer. Food should still rise. I will be surprised if inflation has peaked.
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Apr 12, 2022 15:41
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Willa Rogers posted:A visual representing the annual inflation rates for various items factoring the March info: I’m reminded of the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” from the Bill Clinton campaign and it’s pretty telling that Neo Liberals like Biden and his cabinet have stuck their heads so far up their rear end that they have failed at following the simple framework that got their ilk into power. People have to eat, drink, have a roof over their head, and have their health. This image is basically the only thing republicans need to show to demonstrate how much of a failure the Democratic Party has been since they took over. Note: yes there are external factors and yes the republicans don’t actually give a poo poo. However it demonstrates Dems don’t give a poo poo either and their the ones in full control. Why would anyone be excited to show up to the polls and vote D?
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Apr 12, 2022 15:42
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I mean, there's some good news, too, as Leon's framing of the numbers shows. But "Workers in leisure and hospitality... [are] nearly unanimously better off" isn't going to be a metric that has electoral weight in November, especially since that's a lowly paid sector to begin with. I would also add that Leon's description of them being "better off" would appear to be relative to the increased prices they're paying for goods & services.
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Apr 12, 2022 15:53
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Willa Rogers posted:I mean, there's some good news, too, as Leon's framing of the numbers shows. I don't think there was really any significantly good news. "Core inflation is not rising as quickly and actually lowered a tiny bit from last month" is a sign that things aren't likely to get worse for non-gas/food inflation, but it isn't necessarily objectively good news in itself. I'm confused about your last line. Do you think real wages going up by ~6% higher and nominal wages going up ~15% isn't better off financially? Or were you agreeing? Leisure and hospitality is the one sector where most workers don't have a degree that has real income gains. They are notable because most people without a degree have had a decline in real income and they are one of the few subsets of that group that has had consistent real wage growth for the last year. A lot of jobs had real wage growth for the first half of 2021, but Leisure and Hospitality is basically the only non-degree group that has kept it up for some reason. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Apr 12, 2022 |
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Apr 12, 2022 16:08
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Willa Rogers posted:A visual representing the annual inflation rates for various items factoring the March info: Yeesh. Not that I haven't been feeling the increase in grocery prices since almost everything I regularly buy has become more expensive, but I guess I picked a good year to go vegan considering that jump in meat, fish & eggs!
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Apr 12, 2022 16:11
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I don't think there was really any significantly good news. "Core inflation is not rising as quickly and actually lowered a tiny bit from last month" is a sign that things aren't likely to get worse for non-gas/food inflation, but it isn't necessarily objectively good news in itself. There is an idea that inflation expectations can get "baked in" to the economy - that if more inflation is expected, then workers demand and receive higher wages than they would with lower expectations, which then contributes to increased inflation. We really need that to not happen if we want inflation to get below 4 or 5% by 2024, so that it drops off the table as a major issue. Here's a few words by Paul Krugman, from February: Paul Krugman posted:Consumers, it turns out, don’t expect inflation to stay hot. Rather, they appear to believe it will continue for a while, then fade away. In fact, expected inflation over the medium term has actually come down over the past couple of months. e: Added link. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:36 on Apr 12, 2022 |
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Apr 12, 2022 16:33
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Kathy Hochul having a very "House of Cards" political year. First, she came out against Cuomo and took his office after he was forced out. Then, her biggest primary challenger announced they were dropping out a week after they announced without giving a specific reason. Then, Bill DeBlasio opted out of running. Now, her Lt. Governor (who was reportedly not her first choice and a compromise candidate) is being taken down by the Feds, which will allow her to appoint someone new. https://twitter.com/SDNYnews/status/1513909134969745420
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Apr 12, 2022 17:04
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I'm confused about your last line. Do you think real wages going up by ~6% higher and nominal wages going up ~15% isn't better off financially? Or were you agreeing? Leisure and hospitality is the one sector where most workers don't have a degree that has real income gains. They are notable because most people without a degree have had a decline in real income and they are one of the few subsets of that group that has had consistent real wage growth for the last year. A lot of jobs had real wage growth for the first half of 2021, but Leisure and Hospitality is basically the only non-degree group that has kept it up for some reason. I was pointing out that when you say they're "unanimously better off" it's in context of a sector that's notorious for low wages, and in context of the rabid inflation in housing, energy & fuel. It harkens back to when you were touting that the lowest wage workers got 10 percent increases in their incomes last year, and I pointed out that getting $11/hour instead of $10/hour would be small comfort to someone trying to meet their basic maslow-level needs on $22k/year instead of $20k/year. Does that clear up your confusion?
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Apr 12, 2022 17:20
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The NYPD just issued an update on the NYC subway mass shooting: - Count of people seriously injured is up to 8. - The explosives are undetonated and there appears to only have been one potentially explosive item, it was not an actual bomb, and the rest was debris. - No clue what the motive was. - It is not related to terrorism. - They seem to have identified the shooter, but aren't confirming or releasing his name. - 8 people were shot on the train and 8 more injured afterwards. - Several of the people shot were reportedly in critical condition. Nobody is confirmed dead, but no details on their condition. - Suspect still at large; but they have an ongoing manhunt in the Sunset Park neighborhood and know his location.
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Apr 12, 2022 17:21
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Mr Hootington posted:Rent in the cpi report is once again 12 points lower than all independent reporting agencies claim. Redfin has rent at 17% for March. Rent is always different due to how the BLS measures it. Rent is also a lagging indicator and for every month housing prices rise add 6 months. Wait, do you mean that rent rose 17 percent year-over-year or that it rose 17 percent in March? It's gotta be the former, right?
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Apr 12, 2022 17:28
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The NYPD just issued an update on the NYC subway mass shooting: Given how many of the accounts say he was dressed like an MTA worker, and that they know who he is, my suspicion is this is going to be some loving workplace violence poo poo.
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Apr 12, 2022 17:33
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Willa Rogers posted:I was pointing out that when you say they're "unanimously better off" it's in context of a sector that's notorious for low wages, and in context of the rabid inflation in housing, energy & fuel. That does clear it up. That doesn't really have anything to do with the actual real income changes relative to different sectors, though. If someone has their income go up higher than their costs, then they are better off. Especially if you are comparing it to different subgroups. Saying that there is no difference between +15% and -8% because nothing matters either way isn't very useful for figuring out why. Also, saying that you need to take inflation into account when talking about inflation-adjusted income doesn't make sense and is a little confusing. By definition, inflation adjusted incomes have taken inflation into account.
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Apr 12, 2022 17:34
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Srice posted:Yeesh. Not that I haven't been feeling the increase in grocery prices since almost everything I regularly buy has become more expensive, but I guess I picked a good year to go vegan considering that jump in meat, fish & eggs!  I eat 10-12 eggs/week. When I went to the grocery last week half the egg fridge was empty, including my beloved 18-counts. Today I saw a dozen eggs "on sale" for $3, which means that by next week they'll be $4/dozen.
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Apr 12, 2022 17:38
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That does clear it up. I'm not saying "nothing matters" nor have I said there's no difference. I pointed out that making $22k/year instead of $20k/year is small comfort to those not making a living wage, which includes a shitload of workers in the hospitality sector.
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Apr 12, 2022 17:41
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Willa Rogers posted:Wait, do you mean that rent rose 17 percent year-over-year or that it rose 17 percent in March? It's gotta be the former, right? Yeah and it was zillow. The housing data pissed off Burry this morning. https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/status/1513909341019152392?t=aw3vp6F0wA2rVoAi7o923w&s=19
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Apr 12, 2022 17:46
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FDNY and NYPD just updated. - 8 people in the hospital; 5 in "serious, but stable" condition. Seems likely that, somehow, nobody will actually die from this (although, obviously 8 people getting shot are going to have various levels of damage and some of it likely permanent + the other 8 people with unknown injuries). - The city is trying to find camera footage. Most of the subway cameras in the station haven't been working for a while and were never replaced. (Ruh-roh) - Suspect is still at large and manhunt ongoing. They finally released some minor details: 5 feet five inches tall, approximately 180 pounds, wearing a gas mask and reflective vest, shooter threw a smoke bomb in the train car, used a semi-automatic pistol, and fired at 10 people. Gun hasn't been recovered, assumed to still be with the shooter. Two Brooklyn schools near the manhunt are on lockdown. If you live in Brooklyn, especially near Sunset Park, then stay indoors. CBS has some video of the attack, but it doesn't catch much. https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1513921223306190852 https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1513923726106148875 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Apr 12, 2022 |
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Apr 12, 2022 17:52
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Well the cops can’t figure it out, time to bring in The Batman
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Apr 12, 2022 17:58
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CommieGIR posted:My big memory of KMart was it sold a lot of really cheap electronics that were abysmal quality versus Walmart. Target took some of the things KMart was doing and did it better now. This is one thing Walmart does well, they set a fairly high bar for even cheap items, KMart just said "If its cheap, we'll sell it" Walmart iirc specifically demands low-cost versions of products including electronics, some of which are sold only at Wal-Mart, so while they may be minimum spec they're at least probably more reliable than whatever shitass knockoffs Kmart was willing to stock.
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Apr 12, 2022 18:15
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I worked at KMart when I was in high school, right around the time they went bankrupt for the first time and it seemed anachronistic even back then. And yeah, I worked in the electronics department and it was full of more RCA garbage than a radio shack, which is saying something wrt to inflation and wages, the place I work for is only giving out 1-3% to people as a base. I ended up with something like 15% (and I probably could have ended up with 20% or more if I did a better job negotiating) because they're super afraid that I'm going to quit but it really sucks for the people who don't have that kind of leverage. I feel like that's going to be the case for the majority of American workers who are likely going to stay at their jobs despite all the news over the last year about the Great Resignation.
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Apr 12, 2022 18:54
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LorneReams posted:I felt much worse about KB or Child World. I remember the mall, had a KB toys, right next to a walden books, and radio shack.....That mall got torn down, and is just a empty plot of land with a gravel pile. The world I knew no longer exists.
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Apr 12, 2022 19:12
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Walmart iirc specifically demands low-cost versions of products including electronics, some of which are sold only at Wal-Mart, so while they may be minimum spec they're at least probably more reliable than whatever shitass knockoffs Kmart was willing to stock. Yeah, and Lib and Let Die reminded me that KMart was the place we could get clothes new rather than used/second hand. A distant memory for me at least. Ups_rail posted:I remember the mall, had a KB toys, right next to a walden books, and radio shack.....That mall got torn down, and is just a empty plot of land with a gravel pile. Yeah, I watch a lot of urbex videos and I get a kind of cold chill from watching mall urbex and recognizing so much of the architecture from childhood. But at the same time, knowing how exploitive half these places were...
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Apr 12, 2022 19:13
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FlamingLiberal posted:Well the cops can’t figure it out, time to bring in The Batman It the shooter jumped a turnstile in the subway, the NYPD would have already caught them.
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Apr 12, 2022 19:17
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has reddit used their ssj galaxy brain to accuse the wrong dude yet?
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Apr 12, 2022 19:20
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PhazonLink posted:has reddit used their ssj galaxy brain to accuse the wrong dude yet? No, because there’s no surveillance video of the guy (there’s supposed to be, but we spent all the money on police instead of maintaining the cameras)
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Apr 12, 2022 19:23
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haveblue posted:No, because there’s no surveillance video of the guy (there’s supposed to be, but we spent all the money on police instead of maintaining the cameras) Breaking news out of New York City today, mayor Adams is expected to sign an order making the installation and maintenance of the city's public camera systems a police affair. To assist the NYPD in efforts to rapidly adapt and onboard personnel to work with the camera systems the city is expected to increase police funding by eleventy billion dollars
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Apr 12, 2022 19:26
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In the grim darkness of the American mall system, there is only Kmart.
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Apr 12, 2022 19:35
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Ah, the choice between overwhelming police presence or a pervasive surveillance state. Good work, NYC and America.
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Apr 12, 2022 19:38
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Sounds like we just need more cops with body cams, best of both worlds and with the ironclad peace of mind they’ll never malfunction or be off at an inopportune time
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Apr 12, 2022 19:46
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Jaxyon posted:Ah, the choice between overwhelming police presence or a pervasive surveillance state. I mean we probably have both. Like maybe I'm giving toooo much credit to techno panopticon stuff like virtual cell tower stuff/stringray stuff. like it hasnt been a day yet, dude is goinngt to get caught.
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Apr 12, 2022 19:49
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The NYT's new project to do monthly focus groups of random Americans is a journalistic treasure. Sometimes, it is very interesting and sometimes it is very hilarious. This one leans a little towards the latter. This one is a group of only men (of various ages, races, and incomes) who said they "lean conservative" when asked to self-identify. Half of them recently became conservatives and the other half have been life-long conservatives. Apparently, the number one issue that turns people conservative is traffic etiquette. quote:Most said they believed society is headed toward increased rule breaking and a “me, me, me” culture. Crime and a sense of lawlessness came up a lot; our focus group leader, Kristen Soltis Anderson, was surprised by how much they used examples of poor road etiquette as emblematic of broader societal decay. quote:To that end, safety was a major theme: concern about being physically attacked and also concern about being verbally attacked for what they say. Several felt the cost of saying what they really think is sometimes just not worth it, evoking worries among some Americans about free speech and cancel culture. And they had strong views about masculinity and gender; they seemed aware that their views are out of step with modern culture and will offend some but still felt their views were obviously correct. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: If you had to describe your biggest concern about the United States or American society, in a single word or phrase, what would it be? quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Joe, why weak? Love the 37-year old who recently became a conservative because "this is not the America I remember growing up in" and the country has fallen from its golden age in 2003. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Do you have a particular concern for your own community? Robert, tell me about that. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: My next question: How free do you feel to just be yourself in society these days? I’m seeing a lot of people put zeros up. Felt like she was asking about free speech/social perceptions on that one. Gotta admit, that would not have been my first guess as to what the most likely answer would be. quote:Michael: I live in Orlando, and when we moved here, it was a beautiful place. Now, right down the street, people are stealing stuff, breaking into cars. And it’s difficult to engage, because you’re afraid that no matter what you say, somebody’s going to take offense to it, even though you may just be wanting to ask a valid question and understand something. I want to see what it is like to live in this man's world where nobody is talking about Trump or Biden. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Krupal, how about you? quote:Patrick Healy: Robert, is there something specific that you remember happening? Not sure which is worse: Robert voting for Trump specifically because he knew him from TV or that Robert seems to legitimately believe that people who were mad at him for voting Trump were mad because he was a celebrity. quote:Christopher: I just want to harmonize with what Robert is saying. I don’t even know if you guys have heard of this term, but I’ve been called coon, and Sambo and every word in the book. When it came to Trump, everybody is so focused on the sound bites. But when I show them the executive orders that he’s done for so many different cultures and people that are part of America, they don’t want to hear that. They only want to stick to the sound bites. That’s when I realized just how irrational so many Americans are. And I blame a huge part of that on the media. Christopher is black and thinks the mainstream media has caused people to call him racial slurs. quote:Joe: There’s a lot of things you really can’t talk about. I was mentioning to someone in my office about the president appointing a Supreme Court nominee. It was an African American woman. And I was saying, “That’s the most racist thing you could do. What if somebody else was good? What if they were Asian? What if they were anything?” And then when you speak to somebody about it, well, what are you? Racist? No, I’m not racist. Editor's Note: Joe might be racist. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Are there any places where you do feel comfortable — at home, being yourself? quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Another show-of-hands question: How many of you agree with this statement? “I feel like a stranger in my own country.” quote:Danny: We are the most selfish, self-centered, entitled culture. Everything is me, me, me. My brother’s a doctor in the emergency room. I hear stories every single night. People just run red lights. And when we were younger, we used to see one person run a light. Now it’s four or five cars in a row on the same red light. They could literally kill a family. They don’t care. They’re in a hurry. They’ve got to get to Chick-fil-A. "All the rear end in a top hat Chick-Fil-A customers running red lights is why I became a conservative" is definitely an original origin story. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Let me shift gears and focus a little bit on the things that you value. What are you most proud of these days? What has made you feel a sense of accomplishment? This whole section where they ask about masculinity is wild and just keeps getting wilder the further they press. quote:Patrick Healy: I want to ask each of you to throw out a word or two on this: What does it mean to be a man? Wild quote:Patrick Healy: Derrick, what about you? Wilder quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Who would you all think of as good examples of masculinity or manliness these days? Who’s a good example? Wildest. quote:Patrick Healy: Do you think the definition of masculinity or manliness has changed over your lifetime? Wildest-er quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: What do other folks think about this? Even wildest-er quote:Derrick: I think that men ought to be allowed to be men, and these people who want to be what they want to be — you can be what you want to be, but don’t try to wipe me out or erase me from being the man I want to be. Some of them are concerned that being TOO manly wraps around into being gay. quote:Krupal: I work in health care. I’m lucky to have a good environment. But a lot of my other friends who work in health care, they’ve been told a lot of times to tone it down and not show their manliness. If it’s tattoos or if it’s long hair, a beard, anything that is leaning towards masculinity, they’re told to tone down. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Show of hands: How many of you would say that men have it harder these days than two or three decades ago? Not where I was expecting that question to lead at all. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: How many of you think men have it harder than women these days? In the year 2022, it’s harder to be a man than a woman these days. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: Do you think that our society values you? The things you contribute, the things that you stand for — do you think that society values you? :?: Somehow, the craziest response to a question yet. quote:Derrick: I think that the education system, if I’m willing to play the game, values me. If I’m willing to put in the hard work and go out there and grind and get that education, I think it values me. I feel like if you buy into the system, you want to play the game, you can excel at it. And so I think that the institutions, as a whole, they’re not perfect, but if I put in the hard work and don’t let the setbacks get in my way, I can excel in this country. So institutions, I think they’re on my side, but they’re not perfect. quote:Patrick Healy: A show-of-hands question: Do you think sexism is a major problem in America today? quote:Christopher: It doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. It just means that it’s not as problematic as people make it sound. They take the molehill, and they try to turn it into a mountain, yeah. One of the black guys giving a surprisingly concise layman's explanation of systemic racism, but then concludes that systemic racism ended in America in 1972. quote:Kristen Soltis Anderson: I want to take a step back and ask what would surprise people the most about what it’s like to be in your shoes these days? What do you think many people don’t quite understand? Ok, Danny. I'm sure you really do sleep 5 hours a day and work 14 hours, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year as a Realtor in Florida. That is a very real and accurate estimate of your lifestyle. I'm sure he must be cutting into his 5 hours of sleep to do this focus group. quote:Christopher: The thing that they would see how difficult it is being a conservative agnostic. It seems like it doesn’t fit. But they would also see the rationale and the empathy and the compassion at the seat of it. The focus group subverts expectations again. "Black, middle-aged, conservative agnostics, who work in mortgage financing and live in Maryland have the toughest lives in America" is not where I thought the focus group of conservative Americans would end up. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/opinion/conservative-voters-america.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytopinion
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Apr 12, 2022 19:51
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 news alert: random quotes selected from random people are gonna sound ca-razy! It'll be interesting to see how (or how not) these gleanings are used as political messages, should anyone take them to heart.
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Apr 12, 2022 19:59
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PhazonLink posted:I mean we probably have both. Like maybe I'm giving toooo much credit to techno panopticon stuff like virtual cell tower stuff/stringray stuff. One of those would require actually maintaining infrastructure, lol
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Apr 12, 2022 20:03
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This continues to not get serious coverage in the news, but apparently a mainland US military base is more dangerous than any other on earth? https://twitter.com/sethharpesq/status/1513853829938360325?s=21&t=dZFBZJPwkiVB1diBv8tG3Q
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Apr 12, 2022 20:07
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^^^  Some interesting quotes from the NYT focus group held couple months ago with the financially insecure and what their lying eyes are telling them: quote:Margie Omero: You’re all from different parts of the country. Just fill in the blank for me: I feel “blank” about how the economy is going in my area. I feel “blank.” quote:Margie Omero: I want to pause for a minute and ask about prices. How many people say that that’s on their minds, the cost of things going up? I love focus groups, not just bc you can get such weird responses, but also bc the participants tend to feed each other's energies. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Apr 12, 2022 |
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Apr 12, 2022 20:09
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The NYT's new project to do monthly focus groups of random Americans is a journalistic treasure. Sometimes, it is very interesting and sometimes it is very hilarious. This one leans a little towards the latter. I also like how Joe is never able to speak his mind... except in his WhatsApp group chat with 35 friends who believe the exact same things he does. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Ok, Danny. I'm sure you really do sleep 5 hours a day and work 14 hours, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year as a Realtor in Florida. That is a very real and accurate estimate of your lifestyle.
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Apr 12, 2022 20:12
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The questions I wish they asked the focus group were "How are you an actor in southern Virginia who is making $50,000 a year?" and "How are you retired and unemployed with an income of $75,000 a year and you are having to skimp on toilet paper to survive?"FlamingLiberal posted:This continues to not get serious coverage in the news, but apparently a mainland US military base is more dangerous than any other on earth? It's been covered a bit over the last couple years. About half of them are suicides, a couple were drug overdoses, and they had a weirdly high murder rate for three years with 4-5 of them still unsolved. https://www.thedailybeast.com/mysterious-fort-bragg-deaths-come-after-a-paratrooper-was-decapitated
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Apr 12, 2022 20:17
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FlamingLiberal posted:This continues to not get serious coverage in the news, but apparently a mainland US military base is more dangerous than any other on earth? i thought they did a big change in leadership a few years back after some very public murders/missing person cases. if this is still such a problem it makes me wonder if there's some kind of crazy location specific challenge, or if the other bases just do a better job of keeping their problems out of public view edit: haha, i was actually thinking about the big leadership change at fort hood after their string of rapes and murders, which i guess might say something about the nature of the problem GhostofJohnMuir fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Apr 12, 2022 |
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Apr 12, 2022 20:19
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Willa Rogers posted:^^^ quote:Phyllis: Can’t tell you the last time there was chicken breasts available when I’ve gone to the grocery store. This is the one thing I have never seen run out. Chicken thighs, sure. Chicken wings, uh huh. Steak and bacon and sausages during the pandemic? You bet. But there is seemingly infinite chicken breasts, despite everything.
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Apr 12, 2022 20:19
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^^^ I'd reckon that's geographically-dependent. *** I think the biggest difference between 2003 & now is that we were united as a country in bloodlust. I have no desire to harken back to the days of 99-1 votes for passage of the PATRIOT Act or the bipartisan consensus to kill them all & let allah sort it out, but your average Joe will remember those times with myopic fondness compared to the current sociopolitical discourse, especially if he's a non-politically-invested sort of person.
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Apr 12, 2022 20:20
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Mellow Seas posted:To be fair to Danny, a lot of immigrants do work insane schedules like this. Danny is a 47-year old realtor born in America. In no reasonable world has a realtor been working 14-hour days, 7 days a week, 365 days a year for 20 years straight.
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Apr 12, 2022 20:23
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