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A big flaming stink posted:So new quinnipiac poll came out and wew boy is it loving dire for biden That is not a bug. It is a feature. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 14, 2022 03:36
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A big flaming stink posted:So new quinnipiac poll came out and wew boy is it loving dire for biden The mid terms are going to be wild.
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Apr 14, 2022 03:42
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Harold Fjord posted:The obvious political reality in front of us all as the Republican Party suppresses the vote in states they control and preparing to overturn the political will of their constituents at state level as needed. >listening to democrats (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 14, 2022 03:46
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Dems have officially blown up their primary process. All previous early states have lost their guaranteed status and will have to apply. They are also expanding the number of early states to 5 from 4. Not clear what New Hampshire or Iowa will do because they have laws requiring them to schedule theirs first. They will not be eligible for any delegates if they violate the scheduling order. This new plan also further limits super delegates, gives preferences to primaries over caucuses, and gives weight to states with diverse electorates (measured by union membership, age, urban/rural ratio, general election competitiveness, and ethnicity). New system goes into place for 2024. The new primary schedule for 2024 will be announced this July and going forward they will announce the new first 5 states 2 years prior to the primaries. New Jersey, Nevada, and Michigan have already submitted applications to be the new first primary state for 2024. https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/1514369752642334733 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 03:59
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Dems have officially blown up their primary process. All previous early states have lost their guaranteed status and will have to apply. They are also expanding the number of early states to 5 from 4. Can we kill caucuses already.
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Apr 14, 2022 04:01
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Can we kill caucuses already. They basically did. They are giving special weight to states that hold primaries and just barely avoided banning caucuses from being in the first 5 states entirely. They also want to let states that don't really care about being early in the primary and want to save money use caucuses because they are much cheaper to run. quote:On Wednesday night, there was a debate among members about whether to explicitly say caucus-style states, like Iowa, need not apply for early-state status, given that many members have already expressed concern about the format. But the DNC members ultimately opted against making that specification. Iowa is getting boned in every direction by these new rule changes. The new standards for diversity, general election competitiveness, and caucuses basically prevent it from ever being in the first 5 states. South Carolina is taking a huge hit too. New Hampshire is taking a moderate hit and probably won't be in the first 5 anytime soon, but isn't out of the running entirely. Nevada is looking very good for keeping its spot or moving up if they switch to a primary. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 04:14 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 04:07
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A big flaming stink posted:So new quinnipiac poll came out and wew boy is it loving dire for biden I finally thought of another Dem president that the youngs could've possibly hated more than the olds: LBJ, bc of the draft & the war. I don't know if this was indeed the case, but even if it was it doesn't explain Biden's standing with that age group, because Biden isn't drafting youngs & sending them to their deaths in Ukraine. 
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Apr 14, 2022 04:23
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The two big things that seem to have changed from the draft version of the primary changes they were floating before are: 1) No specifics about preferring small states (or what the definition of a small state is) for the first five primaries. They might still give preference to small states, but it isn't an official part of the weight/point criteria. 2) The preferences for primaries over caucuses has been expanded/changed to preferring states with broad ballot access (which heavily penalizes caucuses and boosts states with early voting, absentee voting, and mail-in voting) instead. quote:access to the ballot, like using primaries — state-run processes with robust absentee and early voting built into the law in most states — instead of caucuses That slightly boosts states like Colorado, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Hawaii, California, Utah, Vermont, Nebraska, and North Dakota relative to the original primary definition. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 04:28 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 04:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Iowa is getting boned in every direction by these new rule changes. The new standards for diversity, general election competitiveness, and caucuses basically prevent it from ever being in the first 5 states. South Carolina is taking a huge hit too. Good. SC was a giveaway to Clyburn & I blame him (and Obama) for the current clusterfuck. Iowa hasn't been competitive for Dems in over a decade & even if it's a DNC gently caress-you to Kim Reynolds & Grassley I'm ok with 86ing the state. Everyone's sick to death of the state fair performative corndogs & camera hogs The story said NJ & MI have expressed interest, but one of the criteria is mix of urban & rural. I think NV, WI, GA and PA would make a good mix.
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Apr 14, 2022 04:43
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The kids just don't get that we can't pay for Medicare for all because it would hurt our bottom line. They removed the child credit and guess what parents had to pay it back in taxes. gently caress that. This admin literally hosed America. At least the fascist takeover will bring forth a social democracy in 267 ACE (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 14, 2022 05:06
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Dems have officially blown up their primary process. All previous early states have lost their guaranteed status and will have to apply. They are also expanding the number of early states to 5 from 4. Good to see further encouragement of primaries. 2020 had the lowest number of caucuses in the party's recent history, with only three states holding them, beating the GOP by more than a factor of three in their most recent contested presidential primary. The GOP's process is still more democratic in its lack of superdelegates, but since 2020 superdelegates haven't enjoyed the right to cast decisive votes during the first round of the convention, so if the public will for a candidate is strong enough to get them over 50%, the superdelegates will be powerless to stop it.
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Apr 14, 2022 05:15
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Willa Rogers posted:Iowa hasn't been competitive for Dems in over a decade & even if it's a DNC gently caress-you to Kim Reynolds & Grassley I'm ok with 86ing the state. Everyone's sick to death of the state fair performative corndogs & camera hogs It's for the best in practical terms but I must admit I've grown fond of the Iowa fair pageantry. It's been happening since I was old enough to vote, and feels like something of an American election tradition now. Hopefully the state that replaces Iowa will have a state fair right before the primaries start instead.
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Apr 14, 2022 05:25
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Koos Group posted:It's for the best in practical terms but I must admit I've grown fond of the Iowa fair pageantry. It's been happening since I was old enough to vote, and feels like something of an American election tradition now. Hopefully the state that replaces Iowa will have a state fair right before the primaries start instead. Whichever state it is, I demand that whatever commodities the state is known for be deep fried and eaten by candidates as part of the festivities.
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Apr 14, 2022 05:29
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Koos Group posted:Good to see further encouragement of primaries. 2020 had the lowest number of caucuses in the party's recent history, with only three states holding them, beating the GOP by more than a factor of three in their most recent contested presidential primary. The GOP's process is still more democratic in its lack of superdelegates, but since 2020 superdelegates haven't enjoyed the right to cast decisive votes during the first round of the convention, so if the public will for a candidate is strong enough to get them over 50%, the superdelegates will be powerless to stop it. If I recall the limited winner-takes-all rules in Republican primaries make it less likely overall for no one to be over the top by the convention anyway. I mean, it's still equally possible mathematically, just hard to see happening in real-world practice compared to a Democratic primary where more than two strong candidates stuck it through. Then again, even if they were equally likely to have a candidate lose the nomination to someone with fewer total votes, it's anyone's question whether it's "worse" for the raw popular vote to be overridden by the second-place votewinner getting narrow majorities in some big states like an Electoral-only victory, or by a decision by people the primary voters themselves had already voted into office. Vs caucuses, which function purely to make sure that fewer people have input into the process in the first place. I'll be glad to see them gone, along with the "so what's a caucus?" news articles every four years to tell people in states with elections why their fate is being decided by relics of the system we had before primaries.
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Apr 14, 2022 05:36
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Gatts posted:That is not a bug. It is a feature. Biden has been very open about how he 'has no sympathy' for the young and considers them spoilt whiners, yes. The primaries being made fairer is an interesting response, but very 'shut the barn door after the horse has bolted', and I'm sure they've realised they don't need to rig the primaries when they have an entire compliant media who will just give any undesirable candidate the Corbyn treatment.
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Apr 14, 2022 05:54
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A big flaming stink posted:So new quinnipiac poll came out and wew boy is it loving dire for biden Appears to be quite an outlier? 
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Apr 14, 2022 06:53
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https://twitter.com/praddenkeefe/status/1514253300111130631 Our government is phenomenally corrupt, and we are all powerless in the face of the sheer scale and scope of that corruption.
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Apr 14, 2022 07:15
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Appears to be quite an outlier? yeah, but even an outlier this bad is loving alarming
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Apr 14, 2022 07:17
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That's not what a data point being an outlier means whatsoever.
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Apr 14, 2022 08:06
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Herstory Begins Now posted:That's not what a data point being an outlier means whatsoever. I’m not sure it is an absolute outlier so much as a reflection in something Quinnipiac is doing different than other pollsters with their methodology. They generated the same “33%” approval rating back in January as well. They have been regularly 5+ points lower than all of the other pollsters (even rasmussen has been consistently higher). https://www.axios.com/biden-white-house-criticizes-bleak-poll-474a3f9b-74fb-45e5-bb0b-2f1e86d2b5b1.html
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Apr 14, 2022 08:32
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A big flaming stink posted:https://twitter.com/whstancil/status/1514331363247280133 How in the world can biden or his whisperers see poo poo like this and not bang on the desk and scream “legalize weed dude!” Proactive movement on student loans and weed. That’s it. If not then I’m willing to believe biden straight up does not give a poo poo and this is just his victory lap.
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Apr 14, 2022 11:15
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If they legalize weed then they won't be able to campaign and solicit donations to legalize weed
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Apr 14, 2022 11:27
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FizFashizzle posted:How in the world can biden or his whisperers see poo poo like this and not bang on the desk and scream “legalize weed dude!” Because they like putting people in jail op He wrote the crime bill and his VP giggles when she talks about jailing parents over piddly poo poo like truancy I feel like a really difficult thing for politics-brained nerds like us to understand is that polling isn't why politicians do things, or at least not often. Yeah whenever they want an excuse to not do something good they'll point to polling like "see this Kaiser push poll shows 90% of Americans love insurance companies so UHC just isn't popular sorry" but they do heinously unpopular poo poo all the time like NAFTA and TPP and bank bailouts and stuff, while refusing to do popular stuff. Biden ran to make sure stuff like legal weed didn't happen, he knows it's popular, stopping popular good things is why he jumped into the primary VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 12:51 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 11:43
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Farewell Twitter I guess https://twitter.com/zekejmiller/status/1514552442020630530?s=21&t=hcJBHtknOXvw4bKmydZL3A Elon is outright buying his sandbox so he can manipulate markets with even more impunity.
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Apr 14, 2022 11:48
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FizFashizzle posted:How in the world can biden or his whisperers see poo poo like this and not bang on the desk and scream “legalize weed dude!” "We didn't lift a finger for them, after saying we would, and they didn't vote. We should be more moderate." I'm starting to think they want to lose the midterms. Edit: vvvvvvv Hitler is now a role model in Republican America. That seems bad. Meatball fucked around with this message at 12:45 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 12:42
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Tennessee is passing a law to punish homeless people even more, but at least one of the supporters had an inspirational message... https://twitter.com/CoreyRForrester/status/1514568636299632653?s=20&t=XsHycpLwM3AuPwua9pGwsg
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Apr 14, 2022 12:44
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The Quinnipiac poll is absolutely an outlier and the Q poll, for whatever reason, has been lower than others all year. if you really want to believe Joe Biden has a 33% approval rating, "it's an outlier" doesn't have to mean anything to you except "don't expect more 33% approval poll results."VitalSigns posted:Because they like putting people in jail op  Kamala Harris also never jailed any parents for truancy (she only "joked" about it) and the crime bill was 28 fuckin' years ago dude. I think the bill that was passed by the Democrats, literally less than two weeks ago, that says "people don't go to jail for having marijuana" is probably more relevant to their current platform. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 12:49 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 12:46
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Please stop inventing conspiracy theories for other people based on your own inability to understand the social sciences. Its loving endlessly tedious having to constantly counter this misinformation where you constantly play(?) the fool. There are plenty of Dems who sigh in relief every time the Republicans (or Manchun/Sinema but I repeat myself) kill a bill, so they don't have to! We don't have to make up conspiracies where it's high fives all around. Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 13:17 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 13:12
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Mellow Seas posted:the crime bill was 28 fuckin' years ago dude. Oh my loving god. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 14, 2022 13:16
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Mellow Seas posted:
Who said anything about secrecy, Biden's openly announced marijuana policies are so regressive and unpopular Corey Booker joked in the primary that he thought Biden was high when he said them.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:01
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Mellow Seas posted:The Quinnipiac poll is absolutely an outlier and the Q poll, for whatever reason, has been lower than others all year. if you really want to believe Joe Biden has a 33% approval rating, "it's an outlier" doesn't have to mean anything to you except "don't expect more 33% approval poll results." It passed the House. The Democrats expect it to pass the Senate?
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Apr 14, 2022 14:06
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Willa Rogers posted:Good. SC was a giveaway to Clyburn & I blame him (and Obama) for the current clusterfuck. Iowa isn't because of a gently caress you to Reynolds and Grassley. It's because there have been grumblings about Iowa for decades, grumblings about caucuses for decades (people are mad that in incredibly close races it can be impossible to know who "really" won for weeks and the precinct winners don't necessarily translate to delegate winners, how votes are worth more in geographic areas in caucuses, etc. Santorum won Iowa in 2012, but everyone thought Romney won for a full two weeks after. Santorum was mad because he thought he would have had more momentum if he was the Iowa winner and Romney unfairly benefitted from the wrong perception) and the 2020 caucus was a disaster. Iowa being non-competitive for Dems since 2012 and the increasing pushes for diversity were the deathblows. SC was never a giveaway to Clyburn. SC has been an early state since before Clyburn even went into office. And both the Republican and Democratic parties agreed upon it. One of the big reasons this kind of reform has never happened before (and why a lot of states probably won't bother to apply to be one of the first 5) is that the Democratic and Republican primaries were synced and set by the state governments. Starting in 2024, the first 5 states are going to have to decide if they move the Republican primaries too. Iowa will stay first for Republicans, so depending on what the state government does, Iowa is either going to have to hold two different primary dates or just accept that they are never getting delegates for the Democratic nomination. The primary dates are set by the state governments in many states, so some of them are not going to want to bother to organize (and pay for) two different elections just to move up the voting date for one primary.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:06
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i like the idea of caucuses because the vote counting is not done by secret ballot
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Apr 14, 2022 14:12
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Gumball Gumption posted:It passed the House. The Democrats expect it to pass the Senate? VitalSigns posted:Who said anything about secrecy, Biden's openly announced marijuana policies are so regressive and unpopular Corey Booker joked in the primary that he thought Biden was high when he said them.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:15
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Dick Trauma posted:Tennessee is passing a law to punish homeless people even more, but at least one of the supporters had an inspirational message...  Hitler was lifted out of absolute poverty by government assistance. Although it was in the form of military service, so I guess this is still consistent GOP messaging?
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Apr 14, 2022 14:18
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:i like the idea of caucuses because the vote counting is not done by secret ballot Caucuses are inherently anti democratic and are a game for the privileged to play. Open primary via mail in ballot is the only sensible method. Anything less is just accepting a flawed system.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:21
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Mellow Seas posted:I don’t expect it to pass the Senate, but I think explaining the reason for the continued federal illegality of cannabis as “they love putting people in jail” falls apart when the passage of the bill is considered, doesn’t it? The root complaint is that things like that are primarily theater and only happen when the bills can't pass. It's nice that they're passing bills in the house that have no chance, I'm excited to see their true colors when they have the numbers to pass things.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:22
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:i like the idea of caucuses because the vote counting is not done by secret ballot But, the weird math done to determine the popular vote to precinct delegate ratio and the precinct delegate to national delegate ratio means that a popular vote win doesn't necessarily mean a caucus win. The things that are appealing about caucuses to me are: - Candidates who are very organized or have very passionate supporters who will sit around for 3 hours in a gym and try to convince other caucusers to join their side have an advantage that can get drowned out in a primary, where you can't measure enthusiasm directly. - When one candidate fails to meet viability, their voters are freed to cast an official vote for nobody, just go home without voting, or choose a different candidate. It's like the 1970's version of ranked choice voting. - People make speeches and make the case for their candidate before voting and then everyone has to vote publicly in the open at once. But, those are also all the things that make caucuses much more anti-democratic and why they usually have less than 1/10th the participation rate of primaries (which themselves already have very low participation rates). It's probably best from a "small d" democratic perspective to get rid of them nd favor systems with early voting, mail-in voting, broad ballot access, and with a system that most voters are familiar with (put X next to name of person you want to win, person with most votes wins, you know the winner roughly 2-3 hours after voting ends) instead of the one that requires a 3-hour time commitment on a Tuesday night starting at 5 pm.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:24
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Gumball Gumption posted:The root complaint is that things like that are primarily theater and only happen when the bills can't pass. It's nice that they're passing bills in the house that have no chance, I'm excited to see their true colors when they have the numbers to pass things. I understand the idea of passing things for show without the intent of them becoming law. Because the “powers that be” don’t want them, or whatever. This is plausible argument on the case of, say, single payer healthcare. However, I find it incredibly easy to dismiss out of hand on the weed issue when, because of the politicians my state elected*, I can smoke a blunt on the sidewalk in front of a god drat cop. * democrats
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Apr 14, 2022 14:26
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Gumball Gumption posted:The root complaint is that things like that are primarily theater and only happen when the bills can't pass. It's nice that they're passing bills in the house that have no chance, I'm excited to see their true colors when they have the numbers to pass things. Biden already said he would sign a national decriminalization bill and has supported one since 2015. He still explicitly says that he doesn't support full legalization in general. His view is still part of the minority (a somewhat sizable ~40% minority, but still a position that has been held by a minority of Americans for several years and a minority within his own party for even longer than that). He is explicitly against national legalization, but in favor of national decriminalization. He's already stopped almost every federal marijuana charge (only about a dozen have been brought since he took office and they were all just add on charges to drug traffickers with many other charges; 0 people have been charged federally for just marijuana possession under Garland), but he has straight up said that he does not support legalization in general. So, he's not hiding anything. He's put his position pretty much out in the open, even though a full marijuana legalization bill is not getting on his desk anytime soon. He's actually doing the opposite of what some people are claiming and is instead staking out a minority position for no reason on an issue that will never come to his desk. This would actually be the perfect issue for him to pretend to have evolved on, because it is a majority position, he will never have to act on it anytime soon, and he's already gone 90% of the way there by supporting full decriminalization.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:35
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