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Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

Arson Daily posted:

This is actually something I've been thinking about for a bit. Why isn't Russia using their hacking abilities to gently caress with countries giving aid to Ukraine? Are their capabilities overblown or would doing such a thing turn a cyber war into a blow poo poo up war?

Probably a combination of beefing up cybersec infrastructure, successful attacks that arent being reported/arent known about, Russia not wanting to blow any of their zero day exploits without a drat good reason, and not wanting the NSA or whoever to use theirs on them.

Edit: I did a research paper on their cyberwarfare stuff circa 2018 and it seemed to me they lean fairly heavily on nominally independent criminal operations for a lot of their day to day shenanigans, so who knows if that's playing a part.

Defenestrategy fucked around with this message at 04:41 on Apr 18, 2022

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GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

Arson Daily posted:

This is actually something I've been thinking about for a bit. Why isn't Russia using their hacking abilities to gently caress with countries giving aid to Ukraine? Are their capabilities overblown or would doing such a thing turn a cyber war into a blow poo poo up war?

Most of their state-run hacking schemes were run from in-country, and that's a lot harder to do when the entire country is basically firewalled off from the polite section of the Internet

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Mustang posted:

In my unit there were some enterprising young NCO's that noticed there was some equipment in the arms room that wasn't on the books and they wanted it for themselves. They roped in their platoon leader who also wanted some of it, even went up to his commander and was like "hey sir, want any of this poo poo from the arms room that's not on the books?".

The commander's response was basically "are you loving kidding me?". I don't know what happened to the NCO's but the LT was dealt with by the brigade commander.

That LT was too stupid for his own good and deserved everything he got.

when you say "for themselves" do you mean for the unit to use or to like....take home

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



Alan Smithee posted:

when you say "for themselves" do you mean for the unit to use or to like....take home

red dot sights are expensive

BeastOfExmoor
Aug 19, 2003

I will be gone, but not forever.

Arson Daily posted:

This is actually something I've been thinking about for a bit. Why isn't Russia using their hacking abilities to gently caress with countries giving aid to Ukraine? Are their capabilities overblown or would doing such a thing turn a cyber war into a blow poo poo up war?

The FBI did apparently disable a bunch of Russian malware, but I think there was an expectation that there'd be a lot more activity.

I have a slight suspicion, backed by literally nothing but my own uninformed thoughts, that the young hackers who likely make up the core of Russia's cyber force are more likely to be more read and informed and less likely to support the war. If this was the case, they might either be not really going all in or Moscow might be holding them back because they don't trust them.



Defenestrategy posted:

Probably a combination of beefing up cybersec infrastructure, successful attacks that arent being reported/arent known about, Russia not wanting to blow any of their zero day exploits without a drat good reason, and not wanting the NSA or whoever to use theirs on them.

You'd think if there's one situation when you'd want to turn on everything you had, it'd be if all your foreign reserves were seized and had crippling sanctions placed on you.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
They could have also gotten a very clear warning that hey, that poo poo would be an act of war.

And while nobody wants to jump into Ukraine themselves, Russia also really doesn’t want anyone to jump into Ukraine.

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

Defenestrategy posted:

Probably a combination of beefing up cybersec infrastructure, successful attacks that arent being reported/arent known about, Russia not wanting to blow any of their zero day exploits without a drat good reason, and not wanting the NSA or whoever to use theirs on them.

Edit: I did a research paper on their cyberwarfare stuff circa 2018 and it seemed to me they lean fairly heavily on nominally independent criminal operations for a lot of their day to day shenanigans, so who knows if that's playing a part.

That’s a really good question I’m guessing a lot of highly paid people are worried about. Without any expertise I’d guess it’s for similar reasons their conventional army is face planting: looks great on paper and has an aura of power and easily steamrolls small foes and ransomware targets. But when trying to step up to powerhouse foes they’re badly stumbling.

Probably also related to the massive ongoing tech sector brain drain. If someone is a talented computer person the appeal of working for a supervillain might get tiresome when you could move elsewhere and still be a top earner without being in a pariah state.

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

BeastOfExmoor posted:


You'd think if there's one situation when you'd want to turn on everything you had, it'd be if all your foreign reserves were seized and had crippling sanctions placed on you.

It might also be a good time to not start a cyber war and find out how many dirty tricks the US has in store for you.

in a well actually
Jan 26, 2011

dude, you gotta end it on the rhyme

A infosec person who spends a lot of time on this had a good writeup: https://grugq.substack.com/p/putins-cyber-blind-spot

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012
On the early abandonment chat, I'll say it's a little odd to be criticizing the Russians for giving up the fight to save their military assets (cruiser Moscow) early when I hope the thread collectively wouldn't half mind if the Russians collectively left all of their stuff behind and walked home tonight.

That said:
The Russian navy is part of the same national defence structure as their army; it faces the same, or very similar, problems.

It doesn't matter what a professional body of people could or should have done to save the ship; in context, nothing suggests these people existed in the first place.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
It's not strange at all to look down on them for professional failures while also hoping their profession fails.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

That's the НоҺомо

the popolice?

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



Anyone know any economists who can give a guess on what Russia's default on its debt will do to its economy? Since they are unable to service their debt in dollars per the terms of the agreement, and seem to be saying "we don't need Western money anyways"

It doesn't take an economist to know the above is Really Bad, but like, how bad is Really Bad is the question.

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

BeastOfExmoor posted:



You'd think if there's one situation when you'd want to turn on everything you had, it'd be if all your foreign reserves were seized and had crippling sanctions placed on you.

Theres two big issues with using zero day exploits and why people dont tend toss them about willy nilly*

1) once you use them in any capacity you have a window between discovery and a patch or remediation being deployed for you to do what you need to do. Sometimes these are insanely quick turn arounds like hours if its a big enough issue or a day or two if its fairly niche and annoying to figure out.

2) because of needing to keep them secret once you release the zero day someone can turn around and hose you or some youd rather not get hosed with it.

So if you're Russia and are holding on to a zeroday that lets you compromise any win10 system you point it at youd probably hold on to it unless you absolutely need an ace in the hole.


*sometimes a conplete dufus will use them to own a minecraft server or some inconseqiential

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

orange juche posted:

Anyone know any economists who can give a guess on what Russia's default on its debt will do to its economy? Since they are unable to service their debt in dollars per the terms of the agreement, and seem to be saying "we don't need Western money anyways"

It doesn't take an economist to know the above is Really Bad, but like, how bad is Really Bad is the question.

They should say its priced in cause the market should be expecting it. Its also not like the Russians couldn't pay their bills. They have a lot of resources people want and $350 billion, its all just locked up, this isn't a voluntary default. So if you are asking if people will lend to them in the future I would say yes, there's plenty of money to be made there.

Deteriorata posted:

It also seems a tough call because all we're seeing is the "after" picture. We don't know what the situation was when the Abandon Ship order was given. There may well have been a moment when staying on the ship was unsurvivable and it was the only reasonable thing to do. All we see is what it looks like after the fires had died down.

I saw a video from Maersk on someone wrestling a braided inlet hose to an offline purifier spraying fuel at full pressure. My chief was laughing at it and I chuckled until I thought what if that was me. Someone was trying to do the best they could in a poo poo situation, I'm going to learn the lessons they learned the hard way but I'm not going to attach blame or judge them. I could very easily do much worse.

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

Oh the year was twenty-twenty-two
How I wish I was in Sevastopol now!

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


Elviscat posted:

Oh the year was twenty-twenty-two
How I wish I was in Sevastopol now!

:perfect:

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Arson Daily posted:

This is actually something I've been thinking about for a bit. Why isn't Russia using their hacking abilities to gently caress with countries giving aid to Ukraine? Are their capabilities overblown or would doing such a thing turn a cyber war into a blow poo poo up war?

They extremely are, the reason why it's had less impact than normal is pretty long and involved though.

Blind Rasputin
Nov 25, 2002

Farewell, good Hunter. May you find your worth in the waking world.

FrozenVent posted:

They could have also gotten a very clear warning that hey, that poo poo would be an act of war.

And while nobody wants to jump into Ukraine themselves, Russia also really doesn’t want anyone to jump into Ukraine.

It could definitely at least partly be this. Look back at their NotPetya in 2017. Yeah, it wreaked havoc in Ukraine. I remember reports of Ukrainian power plant workers sitting there totally defenseless as they literally watched the mouse cursor move around on their power plant operating computers turning poo poo off and sabotaging everything. But that malware attack very quickly bugged its way out of Ukraine and infected.. loving everything. France, Germany, the Maersk shipping company was completely dead in the water when it hit their systems, tons of NATO countries had minor and/or major hits from NotPetya. These malware attacks that are meant to be super heavy hitters just unfortunately have no real way of stopping inadvertent spread outside the target country. The internet is too complicated I think.

So I could totally see NATO or the US saying to Russia.. something like this happens and “it’s the ballgame.”

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Arson Daily posted:

This is actually something I've been thinking about for a bit. Why isn't Russia using their hacking abilities to gently caress with countries giving aid to Ukraine? Are their capabilities overblown or would doing such a thing turn a cyber war into a blow poo poo up war?

There’s been a variety of reporting on this over the last week as Russia has not only been attempting to target Ukrainian power and transportation infrastructure with cyber attacks, but has been targeting American power and LNG infrastructure as well. So far they haven’t been as successful as in past years, partly due to proactive defense on the part of Ukrainian and American cybersecurity officials.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cyberwarfare-ukraine-us-attacks-2022-4

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

BeastOfExmoor posted:

[url=https://news.yahoo.com/fbi-removed-.

I have a slight suspicion, backed by literally nothing but my own uninformed thoughts, that the young hackers who likely make up the core of Russia's cyber force are more likely to be more read and informed and less likely to support the war. If this was the case, they might either be not really going all in or Moscow might be holding them back because they don't trust them.
.

Or they mostly bailed and left Russia.

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

Alan Smithee posted:

when you say "for themselves" do you mean for the unit to use or to like....take home

Taking stuff home to use with their personal guns. Stuff that's not on the books won't come up missing on monthly inventories or when checking everything in the arms room.

catfry
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Regarding abandoning ship too early or not, the mariners of the Black sea fleet might have been influenced by the history of the sinking of a previous flagship of theirs, the battleship Novorossiysk, nee Giulio Cesare.
In 1955 the 23 000 t ship hit a mine in Sevastopol harbour and started to sink over a matter of hours. However, dithering and confusion about chain of command meant that several hundred men remained aboard when the ship eventually capsized. It's an infamous story among russian sailors apparently.
https://wwiiafterwwii.wordpress.com/2015/09/20/the-novorossiysk-mystery/

catfry fucked around with this message at 11:13 on Apr 18, 2022

silvergoose
Mar 18, 2006

IT IS SAID THE TEARS OF THE BWEENIX CAN HEAL ALL WOUNDS




Elviscat posted:

Oh the year was twenty-twenty-two
How I wish I was in Sevastopol now!

Incroyable

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


I don't think the hacker guys can leave Russia, that opens them up to prosecution for their past crimes. And it's much easier to see them just cynically and or patriotically staying on the team that keeps them paid than suddenly rocking the boat.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

Kaal posted:

There’s been a variety of reporting on this over the last week as Russia has not only been attempting to target Ukrainian power and transportation infrastructure with cyber attacks, but has been targeting American power and LNG infrastructure as well. So far they haven’t been as successful as in past years, partly due to proactive defense on the part of Ukrainian and American cybersecurity officials.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cyberwarfare-ukraine-us-attacks-2022-4

Good article. One of the points made is that "There wasn't a sort of coordination across the GRU and FSB and the other organizations that would normally carry out these more sophisticated and sustained kinds of attacks simply because they didn't know that the invasion was coming."

Roblo
Dec 10, 2007

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

aphid_licker posted:

I don't think the hacker guys can leave Russia, that opens them up to prosecution for their past crimes. And it's much easier to see them just cynically and or patriotically staying on the team that keeps them paid than suddenly rocking the boat.

I'm sure some of them would find a home with some intelligence agencies if they were willing to spill some beans and they're good at what they do?

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Roblo posted:

I'm sure some of them would find a home with some intelligence agencies if they were willing to spill some beans and they're good at what they do?

That's a spicy bet on whether you believe that you can set that up and leave the country sneakily and on whether your new masters can keep you from getting novichok'd afterwards

E: not saying that you're wrong, just that it'd be hairy and there's incentive to just stay where you are and keep on keeping on indefinitely

Soylent Pudding
Jun 22, 2007

We've got people!


Going to toss out their that a lot of these cybercrime gangs aren't so much Russian as Russian speaking and have had members from other eastern bloc states. The Conti ransomware gang was one of the first to publicly declare support for Russia. Except it had Ukrainian members who promptly leaked their entire source code, infrastructure map, and years worth of internal communications.


Blind Rasputin posted:

It could definitely at least partly be this. Look back at their NotPetya in 2017. Yeah, it wreaked havoc in Ukraine. I remember reports of Ukrainian power plant workers sitting there totally defenseless as they literally watched the mouse cursor move around on their power plant operating computers turning poo poo off and sabotaging everything. But that malware attack very quickly bugged its way out of Ukraine and infected.. loving everything. France, Germany, the Maersk shipping company was completely dead in the water when it hit their systems, tons of NATO countries had minor and/or major hits from NotPetya. These malware attacks that are meant to be super heavy hitters just unfortunately have no real way of stopping inadvertent spread outside the target country. The internet is too complicated I think.

So I could totally see NATO or the US saying to Russia.. something like this happens and “it’s the ballgame.”

Also notPetya was summer 2017 and was a wormable wiper. It was introduced through a supply chain attack against basically Ukrainian TurboTax. Foreign multinationals like Maersk didn't have good internal segmentation so once it got into their Ukraine offices it jumped to the rest of the worldwide corporate network. https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/

The powergrid attacks were December 2016 and involved the industroyer malware. An attack by the next gen industroyer malware, industroyer2 was recently blunted: https://www.welivesecurity.com/2022/04/12/industroyer2-industroyer-reloaded/ and https://thehackernews.com/2022/04/russian-hackers-tried-attacking.html.

Also if you want more reading about Russian attacks against the energy sector: https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/ncas/alerts/aa22-083a

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

EasilyConfused posted:

Good article. One of the points made is that "There wasn't a sort of coordination across the GRU and FSB and the other organizations that would normally carry out these more sophisticated and sustained kinds of attacks simply because they didn't know that the invasion was coming."

That's nuts. How the hell could they not know the invasion was coming? I mean, the French didn't know because they were only seeing what they wanted to, but how the hell could a Russian agency with a vital role to perform not know that a war was on the day planner?

Dance Officer
May 4, 2017

It would be awesome if we could dance!

A.o.D. posted:

That's nuts. How the hell could they not know the invasion was coming? I mean, the French didn't know because they were only seeing what they wanted to, but how the hell could a Russian agency with a vital role to perform not know that a war was on the day planner?

When they're deliberately kept in the dark.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
Lol no one in Russia knew except putin

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/uatv_en/status/1516030415789768709?s=21&t=9vKgWDDFgLkXhLkqAPR3ew

Lake of Methane
Oct 29, 2011


The VLS for up to 64 S-300F missiles is on the back half of the ship, between the two superstructures. They appear to be undamaged on the Moskva, but I just thought this was ... something.

https://twitter.com/Saturnax1/status/1078263088116367360?s=20

Naked Bear
Apr 15, 2007

Boners was recorded before a studio audience that was alive!
#MakeRussiaStronkAgain

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
That is a.. lot of uncompartmentalized space. They really don't have a culture of damage control at all, do they?

cruft
Oct 25, 2007

Arson Daily posted:

This is actually something I've been thinking about for a bit. Why isn't Russia using their hacking abilities to gently caress with countries giving aid to Ukraine? Are their capabilities overblown or would doing such a thing turn a cyber war into a blow poo poo up war?

Whoa, a question I can answer!

They are (using their hacking abilities). But cyber attacks at the level a country does isn't like the movies, it takes a lot of preparation work and planning. I'm sure they had some degree of a foothold in lots of places, but they surely lack the capacity to go after the entire planet (except India, China, and Saudi Arabia) at once.

It's like, we're 2 years into this campaign to get into this refrigerator company's smart fridge and you want us to turn on our heels and, what exactly? Hack the entire planet? I mean, I guess we can launch a bunch of distributed denial of service attacks, but we can really only do that to one target at a time.

E: and also the more garden variety "bad actor on internet" groups are just russian-speaking, as a previous poster pointed out. They have to be asked to go after a target on, presumably, a news show or something.

cruft fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Apr 18, 2022

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Darknet Diaries podcast had a really good episode going into all the behind the scenes paperwork to get the US to authorize offensive use of a zero-day.

https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aH...C1taXNoYXAubXAz

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

shame on an IGA posted:

Darknet Diaries podcast had a really good episode going into all the behind the scenes paperwork to get the US to authorize offensive use of a zero-day.

https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aH...C1taXNoYXAubXAz

Thanks for the link, I’ve actually been wondering how the policy ins and outs of this stuff works!

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Blind Rasputin
Nov 25, 2002

Farewell, good Hunter. May you find your worth in the waking world.

Lake of Methane posted:

The VLS for up to 64 S-300F missiles is on the back half of the ship, between the two superstructures. They appear to be undamaged on the Moskva, but I just thought this was ... something.

https://twitter.com/Saturnax1/status/1078263088116367360?s=20

That’s insane looking. I’ve always wondered what the underside of the VLS launchers look like on our US warships? Are those things in a space that like, beltfeeds further missiles into place fro reload or are they manually reloaded from underneath?

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