|
Willa Rogers posted:Maybe it's a bad case of The Optics, but all the Dem- & admin-affiliated pollsters & strategists appear to think it comes down to "messaging" or "perceptions"--in other words, countering voters' lying eyes. That's the literal opposite of what Biden's pollster said. He agrees with you, but he just thinks it won't happen. lol He says they need to do something, anything, to have a positive material win to campaign on and they need to stop fighting amongst themselves in congress and get behind something, even if it is inadequate, because they can't just not produce anything for 6 months before the election.
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:18
|
|
happy days are here again & you have to be a trumper to not see all the wonderful gains that the economy has supposedly amassed makes Dems even more loathed than they already are, and voters all the more susceptible to right-wing framing about Dems being out of touch.
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 17:13 |
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Biden is going to run, so it doesn't matter. I know he's told Obama that he's going to run, but I don't see Biden holding up cognitively for another two years, much less six. Do you? For the record, I don't think Bernie's going to run, either; I think he wants his endorsements to be taken seriously, and it might be a preemptive shot as he gets ready to campaign for lefties against establishment Dems in the party's primaries this year.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:21
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:I'm not going to google it but it's likely just not having a doctor available to pronounce while private EMS does half assed compressions and pushes amio until they get to the nearest hospital. lol I was thinking the same thing. itd be epi though  amio would only be for fairly viable arrests and not a courtesy-resus
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:21
|
|
|
Yeah, that's exactly it- no one has ever been recorded as having died at Disney World, but hearts and brain activity have definitely stopped there
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:22
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:I know he's told Obama that he's going to run, but I don't see Biden holding up cognitively for another two years, much less six. Do you? The average American who lives to Biden's age will live 9 more years. I would bet you a lot of money that the man who never drank alcohol in his life, has access to the best healthcare I'm the world, and is of a healthy weight will do better than the average American. He won't decline to run unless he is physically unable to. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Apr 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:23
|
|
|
haveblue posted:Yeah, that's exactly it- no one has ever been recorded as having died at Disney World, but hearts and brain activity have definitely stopped there a toddler got killed by a gator at a disney hotel a few years ago and the mouse is drat lucky the parents just quietly went home to the farm instead of raising a massive stink about gator-infested hotel ponds
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:27
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That's the literal opposite of what Biden's pollster said. My post was was partly in response to your framing (bolded below) as well as other strategy/polling pieces I've read touting stuff like "record income increases among lowest earners!" and "more jobs created than at any time in history!" It's too late for the midterms, which means it's probably too late for 2024 as well, unless some party outsider pulls a trump & runs to upend the Dem party. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:- He says this is the worst midterm environment for Democrats he has seen in a long time. The economy isn't the worst it has ever been, but the perception of the Democratic party is that they have no solutions for it and there is uncertainty about inflation, covid, and the economy in general. If the Democrats could deliver some things or get organized, then they could have a positive accomplishment to point to and reassure people. At the very least, voters need to feel like you actually have some kind of plan. As for that last bit, a party that wants to rest on its laurels of having passed a relief bill the relief of which has ended, and on an infrastructure bill that has nothing to do with voters' current concerns, is a party destined to lose again & again till it becomes irrelevant.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:29
|
|
|
Professor Beetus posted:It's pretty sad, I knew a few decent leftist folks from school who got sucked into the Fukushima panic and become die hard anti-nuke environmentalists. That whole thing was so stupid, I know at least one person who stopped eating sushi because they were afraid of radioactive fish. Nearly every death was because the Japanese government wildly overreacted and tore elderly and sick patients out of hospitals and nursing homes away from the care they needed in order to evacuate them. Even if there was a bad radioactive leak you don't go running off across the countryside you shelter in place. The deaths at Fukushima were entirely because of Anti-Nuclear fear and paranoia. "Environmental" groups that oppose nuclear cause huge damage to the environment and continue to oppose one of the best tools we have for getting the oil/gas needle out our collective arms. It's madness. I suspect some of them are being bankrolled by the fossil fuel industry for this reason. Nuclear power literally has a better safety track record than wind turbines for Christs sake. Like other posters have pointed out nearly every closed nuclear power plant is replaced by fossil fuels. Axetrain fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Apr 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:31
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The average American who lives to Biden's age will live 9 more years. I would bet you a lot of money that the man who never drank alcohol in his life, has access to the best healthcare I'm the world, and is of a healthy weight will do better than the average American. By all appearances he's in great shape physically, if you don't count his brain. Cognitively: hell no, and he won't be able to hide from the campaign trail in 2024 as he was able to in 2020.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:32
|
|
|
I don't think issue ever was "physical" Efb
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:34
|
|
|
Here's an example of the tone-deaf approach: https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1516752535364812810 assumes that Americans' pain started with Russia invading Ukraine two months ago, instead of starting two years ago & getting so much worse over time. The nod to covid looks like an attempt to bury the sheer disingenuousness of blaming Putin. It's as if the strategists realized they can no longer blame Trump for the rising cost of necessities (god knows they tried, only to see Biden's approvals drop farther) so now they've got to rotate in a new shitcatcher. Which Dem voters other than the diehards are going to buy this? And even the most loyal Dem voters are increasingly wary of the admin's messaging.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:44
|
|
|
I don't see how Biden's mental state has any bearing on whether he runs or wins. Not with wights like Feinstein clinging to power.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:46
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That's the literal opposite of what Biden's pollster said. Oh, you underestimate them, sir.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:49
|
|
|
The only thing they’ve done of substance this year isn’t even legislation, it’s the SCOTUS nominee Manchin killed BBB dead in what, September?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 21:57
|
|
|
^^^ December, lol. Infrastructure was passed in early November, I believe. BBB in its final form was stripped of meaningful change except for pockets of certain voters. How it started vs. how it went was a joke, and even that was a bridge too far for Dems to pass. So some sort of skinny BBB, eg reinstating the expanded child tax credit + restoring SALT deductions, is not going to counter voters' anger at not being able to meet their basic needs because of inflation.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:00
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:By all appearances he's in great shape physically, if you don't count his brain. Cognitively: hell no, and he won't be able to hide from the campaign trail in 2024 as he was able to in 2020. Unless you think he has literal degenerative dementia, why do you think his cognition would change enough in the next year to prompt universal calls for him to step down and overwhelming enough pressure to convince him?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:04
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:Here's an example of the tone-deaf approach: Do you disagree that inflation is primarily due to covid and gas prices? Or was there some Biden policy that caused inflation in every country in the world to rise at the exact same time by the exact same amount?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:06
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Do you disagree that inflation is primarily due to covid and gas prices? Or was there some Biden policy that caused inflation in every country in the world to rise at the exact same time by the exact same amount? Close to half country think it's due to "paying people not to work", the extended UEI benefits and handing out $1400 checks. I'm not saying they're correct, mind you, just that a lot of voters actually believe it and WILL vote based on that. I hear it all the time, everywhere, and often from business owners crying about how nobody wants to work anymore. It's an extremely pervasive narrative that the (rather meager) economic help that was given to most Americans has led directly our inflation situation and that's not even debatable to my eyes (the perception I mean). And most people don't even want to hear about Covid and Putin anymore since they're burned the gently caress out about it. Again, I'm not saying that Biden is wrong, just that he can't sell that.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:16
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Do you disagree that inflation is primarily due to covid and gas prices? Or was there some Biden policy that caused inflation in every country in the world to rise at the exact same time by the exact same amount? It's greedy loving corps finally admitting they sold the brakes for gas money and welded the accelerator to the floor? The price increases are not borne out of any sort of correlation to increases in costs or lost revenue from covid lockdowns, they're far higher. They just realized there no point is pretending they can't just raise prices every year by double digit percentage points.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:20
|
|
|
Crain posted:It's greedy loving corps finally admitting they sold the brakes for gas money and welded the accelerator to the floor? That's surely part of it for certain sectors. But, China's PPI went up ~8.5% and the cost to produce gas at state run oil companies went up the same amount as global oil prices. If everything rises in nearly perfect sync across all major countries and economic systems, then it might be a systemic issue.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:34
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Do you disagree that inflation is primarily due to covid and gas prices? Or was there some Biden policy that caused inflation in every country in the world to rise at the exact same time by the exact same amount? I never said either of these things; I pointed out how dumb it sounds for Biden to blame someone like Putin when the gas prices were rising long before two months ago. Let's do a "branding" experiment: Which of these two do you think is the more lasting & powerful as a political messaging tool? 1. "I did this!" Biden stickers on gas pumps for the last 9 months. 2. Biden calling out Putinflation & blaming the disease he's now saying we're done with. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Unless you think he has literal degenerative dementia, why do you think his cognition would change enough in the next year to prompt universal calls for him to step down and overwhelming enough pressure to convince him? You provided the answer with your question (the first part), but also I don't see a path toward his approvals increasing to the extent that he'll be anything but as toxic to the party as he is now. I don't think there will be public calls for him to step down--that would be a breach of  and party unity!--but I do see some gentle private nudges in his future.(Also god knows what the GOP will dig up & air about Hunter's business dealings once they're running the House & Senate again. I don't see them going for impeachment but they can damage Biden's reelection chances.) BiggerBoat posted:And most people don't even want to hear about Covid and Putin anymore since they're burned the gently caress out about it. Again, I'm not saying that Biden is wrong, just that he can't sell that. Yeah; this.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:38
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:You provided the answer with your question (the first part), but also I don't see a path toward his approvals increasing to the extent that he'll be anything but as toxic to the party as he is now. Unless you think gentle private nudges are going to convince him, then why do you think it is nearly certain that he will be stepping down in the next year versus just running for re-election? Even if we assume that Biden is just a step above braindead, then why would gentle nudges convince him or even start happening when it never has before? Reagan literally had full blown alzheimer's for at least two years of his presidency. Why would decorum today be so much stronger?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:45
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Unless you think gentle private nudges are going to convince him, then why do you think it is nearly certain that he will be stepping down in the next year versus just running for re-election? Even if we assume that Biden is just a step above braindead, then why would gentle nudges convince him or even start happening when it never has before? Dude, I can't provide cognitive-testing receipts; this is my reasoned hunch, given his (a) crap approvals with no increase in sight, nor decreased costs in sight for necessary goods like housing & food; (b) the likely (further) damage that the GOP holding both houses of Congress will do to his standing & approvals; and (c) the unlikelihood that what appear to be problems with his cognitive abilities will improve over time, given his age. Reagan's presidency was almost 40 years ago; there's no way presidential cognitive decline will be covered up again now, just as a president being paralyzed by polio or incapacitated by Addison's Disease wouldn't fly under the radar these days.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:56
|
|
|
It's gonna be Biden because otherwise it's Harris who would probably handle a full actual campaign season even worse than worst case Biden. Nobody's gonna discourage anything, at least not anymore because "Biden runs in 2024 = Bernie doesn't" is now the math, and more to the point that's not how gerontocracies work. On a personal level I just wish they'd done something so that my vote for anybody in their party above the level of city councilor actually had any impact on anything, like they said they wanted to do, but welp what can ya do. I've at least got some good downballot people to vote for I'm wrong about these things 9 times out of 10 tho so here's hoping Biden pulls a wild card and endorses Bernie. Maybe the party would fall behind him and maybe it would implode UK Labour-style but at least it couldn't be described as confused and directionless anymore
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 22:56
|
|
|
Epic High Five posted:It's gonna be Biden because otherwise it's Harris who would probably handle a full actual campaign season even worse than worst case Biden. Nobody's gonna discourage anything, at least not anymore because "Biden runs in 2024 = Bernie doesn't" is now the math, and more to the point that's not how gerontocracies work. So many DNC hacks were ready to stab Bernie in the back when it looked like he was going to end up with the nomination before the big Super Tuesday drop-outs.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 23:10
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:The party would absolutely implode if Biden endorsed Bernie. This is my guess as well but like I said, this cycle I'm going to try to humiliate myself a bit less with bold predictions. I mean if it happened, which obviously it won't. Bloomberg's just gonna give half the national level membership of the party 1 million bucks each to defect to his new Hate Guns Love Landlords Party
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 23:12
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:Dude, I can't provide cognitive-testing receipts; this is my reasoned hunch, given his (a) crap approvals with no increase in sight, nor decreased costs in sight for necessary goods like housing & food; (b) the likely (further) damage that the GOP holding both houses of Congress will do to his standing & approvals; and (c) the unlikelihood that what appear to be problems with his cognitive abilities will improve over time, given his age. I don't think anyone is going to fuss that much now that they've been convinced our only options are 80 year olds with degenerative disorders. We will just start picking which candidate seems the most with it while telling people to not let perfect be the enemy of good.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 23:16
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1516909839955410945 Someone flying their Cessna too close to DC again most likely
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 23:42
|
|
|
virtualboyCOLOR posted:It’s increasingly obvious that leadership needs to change but will not. At this point the new blood needs to either force the old guards hands or the party needs to self destruct. I don’t say this flippantly: In the long run I strongly feel Biden winning the 2020 election was the worse outcome for the future of the Democratic Party and the country as a whole. There are obvious actions (repeal title 42, student loan forgiveness, pushed BBB, etc) that his admin chose not to and continues not to do. His mixed messaging on covid has opened the country up to the worst waves so far (even with a vaccine available). He isn’t even attempting to fight keeping masks on flights when the recent trend in covid cases is going up. He is not just a terrible president but appears to be actively rolling out the red carpet for fascist like DeSantis. Yes. There are goons who lost friendships over the last election because anyone but trump. Norm Mcdonald basically made a point years ago that it not enough to be against something, thats not a position. Hey what ever happened to my imaginary girlfriend he worked for the dems right? he had some fun takes like 12 years ago.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
Reagan had a little bit of success and a far superior, professional, serious, experienced, connected and devious minded supporting cast. To where all they had to do was prop him up, occasionally trot him out there, have him not drool or poo poo on himself on national TV and then run things behind the scenes. Who is Biden going to use to do this as our country is bursting into flames and with historically low approval ratings? Who is in his sphere or his cabinet that can handle what's going on right now and paint a smiley face on it? People are loving pissed off, broke and sad - or some combination of all three. Someone else pointed out that Joe won't be able to hide in a basement and lay low this time either in 2024 and they're right. No wants to see him on a debate stage and nothing, ZERO, motivates the base to turn out for him. As much as I loathed Trump and was fired up to see him burn, I hated HATED that Joe was our 2020 nominee, even though I enthusiastically voted for him because I HAD TO. For all the reasons that are being made apparent right now. But I don't think that's gonna fly next time because now he's holding the ball and the one trying to sell and defend the indefensible. Donald Trump is gonna win this thing in two years and the Deocratic Party will be to blame. Christ, let's assume the DNC decided that Biden was unfit to run or whatever. Who do you think would be first on line for the nomination? Harris? Try Hillary Clinton. Would not shock me at all. Hell, I'd expect it. How inspiring. Wonder what kind of odds I can get on Trump v Clinton 2?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2022 23:45
|
|
|
Heck Yes! Loam! posted:https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1516909839955410945 LMAO, it's an Army parachute team putting on a show for a Nationals game, but not everyone who should know about it did. https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1516913186238345216
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 00:04
|
|
|
Dr Christmas posted:LMAO, it's an Army parachute team putting on a show for a Nationals game, but not everyone who should know about it did. LOL Yeah, they're really on tops of things right now in DC. Jesus Christ we're one professional wrestler president away from Idiocracy and I'm not entirely convinced that Vince McMahon couldn't win an election right now
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
BiggerBoat posted:LOL A reminder that the administration of President Camacho identified a pressing concern for the nation at large, took the most logical steps to combat it, and when proven wrong by evidence based debating immediately turned the full might of the United States government to fixing the problem. e: What I'm saying is we should be so loving lucky. Mulva fucked around with this message at 00:31 on Apr 21, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 00:14
|
|
|
BiggerBoat posted:LOL eh I think comacho would do a better job.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 00:29
|
|
|
Ups_rail posted:eh I think comacho would do a better job. He did a good job solving that famine
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 00:50
|
|
|
Ups_rail posted:eh I think comacho would do a better job. I'm not sure
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 01:00
|
|
|
BiggerBoat posted:I'm not sure At least he knew how to fire up the base and was under the age of 70. (presumably....brawndo might have preservatives)
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 01:23
|
|
|
BiggerBoat posted:I'm not sure He was introspective, honest about the problems he faced, and wanted to solve them. He listened to experts, and had the smartest guy in the world handle it. President Camacho isn't all that bad. Sure he maintained decorum with a machine gun, but you can't always agree with your leaders.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 01:52
|
|
|
When faced with a food crisis due to Brawndo destroying the earth, President Comacho took swift action When faced with the climate crisis https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1516752538028191751
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 01:52
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 17:13 |
|
|
I loving hate who ever runs the twitters of people. They try to ape trumps "nick name" basically 5th grade name calling. Never mind its Europe that depends on russian energy USA not so much.
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 02:00
|
|