Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

I thought this was pretty interesting and wasn’t sure where else to post it.

I have access to the PE of Command Modern Operations but never use it because I’m not an air or naval guy, and other than research for a paper on “Field Artillery in the Coastal Role” have not read too much on boat stuff. Anyways I was going through their databases, checking out the modern Chinese navy, whatever whatever it seemed neat. You know, impressive how quickly they built those two new carriers, taking a look at their new ASMs. PE has hypersonic weapons in the database but I barely understand CMO let alone the actual systems.

It turns out there is a huge Chinese community for CMO/CMANO. Like, massive forum, just on CMO, that has posters painstakingly translating not just the game - including decrypting the exe and database files to add localization - but translating the names of all of these western weapons systems, their descriptions, and then translating western reference books and papers too. Their reference book thread is pretty amazing, and that they found and translated all of this stuff on their own, wow.

I don’t know if Grogs are a thing in China, or if these are university students or whatever, but the work that went into understanding naval affairs, just to play this English language game with no localization, it’s incredible. They were so excited for the anniversary of the PLAN, I haven’t seen that kind of engagement by regular people with a Navy before.

All of that to say, I would guess the Chinese people are really proud of and engaged with their Navy. It kind of reminds me of the 1910’s when there were books like Jane’s for regular people since the British public wanted to know every ship in the Royal Navy and the latest developments in ship design.

Forum is called something like The Operational Art of War, which is confusing since TOAW is already the name of a completely different wargame in English.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

The Federalist Papers

indigi
Jul 20, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 16 hours!
Xi probably loves Hamilton

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

Frosted Flake posted:

I thought this was pretty interesting and wasn’t sure where else to post it.

I have access to the PE of Command Modern Operations but never use it because I’m not an air or naval guy, and other than research for a paper on “Field Artillery in the Coastal Role” have not read too much on boat stuff. Anyways I was going through their databases, checking out the modern Chinese navy, whatever whatever it seemed neat. You know, impressive how quickly they built those two new carriers, taking a look at their new ASMs. PE has hypersonic weapons in the database but I barely understand CMO let alone the actual systems.

It turns out there is a huge Chinese community for CMO/CMANO. Like, massive forum, just on CMO, that has posters painstakingly translating not just the game - including decrypting the exe and database files to add localization - but translating the names of all of these western weapons systems, their descriptions, and then translating western reference books and papers too. Their reference book thread is pretty amazing, and that they found and translated all of this stuff on their own, wow.

I don’t know if Grogs are a thing in China, or if these are university students or whatever, but the work that went into understanding naval affairs, just to play this English language game with no localization, it’s incredible. They were so excited for the anniversary of the PLAN, I haven’t seen that kind of engagement by regular people with a Navy before.

All of that to say, I would guess the Chinese people are really proud of and engaged with their Navy. It kind of reminds me of the 1910’s when there were books like Jane’s for regular people since the British public wanted to know every ship in the Royal Navy and the latest developments in ship design.

Forum is called something like The Operational Art of War, which is confusing since TOAW is already the name of a completely different wargame in English.

China absolutely has grogs, it's just that I don't think they get as deep in the weeds in milsim stuff like you'd see in eastern europe. Most grognardy games I've seen come out of china are management focused, so poo poo like Dyson Sphere Program or Amazing Cultivation Simulator

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

this mf claiming to have read war and peace lmfao

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
Loads of Chinese people play management type games like Rimworld too.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoxycyJ3fkw

The Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai was supposed to complete the third Chinese aircraft carrier in time for launch in April the anniversary of the PLA Navy, but they cancelled it because of the covid outbreak. This was supposed to be a pretty big showpiece with new Chinese developed electromagnetic launch catapults that supposedly leapfrog western technology.

Pretty sure Xi will be making sure that no one in the Shanghai administration ever has a job again lmao

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy
the I Ching is the worlds first D100 table. china has been nerds for a very long time

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

chairman xi, nationalize dwarf fortress

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

One of the shipyard officials was caught giving information to the CIA as well, there was a fairly big shakeup.

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
Dwarf fortress is already Free.

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

Throatwarbler posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoxycyJ3fkw

The Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai was supposed to complete the third Chinese aircraft carrier in time for launch in April the anniversary of the PLA Navy, but they cancelled it because of the covid outbreak. This was supposed to be a pretty big showpiece with new Chinese developed electromagnetic launch catapults that supposedly leapfrog western technology.

Pretty sure Xi will be making sure that no one in the Shanghai administration ever has a job again lmao

It's kind of amazing how hosed up Shanghai is, they really dropped the ball hard on everything in the past like 2-3 months. Wasn't one of the Xi rival cliques from Shanghai too?

Buck Wildman
Mar 30, 2010

I am Metango, Galactic Governor


AnimeIsTrash posted:

this mf claiming to have read war and peace lmfao

Telluric Whistler
Sep 14, 2008



Lol the cock ups over the last few months are almost entirely down to Shanghai already being allowed it's own special government structure, so I'm sure a completely independent Shanghai that doesn't have the PLA to sort out their logistics issues or other provinces shipping in healthcare workers and volunteers is going to do just great.

Thankfully incompetent and independent Shanghai would not last long because the seas are going to rise and swallow the city.

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

Tankbuster posted:

Dwarf fortress is already Free.

yes but then they can devote resources to making it better

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

I found an editorial where someone proposed the US project power in Asia with Age of Sail style raids, aimed at “territory-holding actors (normally recognized nation-states)”, which will be deniable because the ships involved will fly false colours. This will, naturally, prevent escalation and will be deniable. They don’t mean JSOC raids either, but actual coastal raids, carried out against nation-states, like it’s the Spanish Main, and similarly disguised by flying the Dutch flag or whatever.

This is their proposed solution to China installing anti-ship missiles and airfields in the South China Sea I guess.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xO1hPl19yaM

It's Time to Consider Raiding, Again

Jon Solomon's note: When we think of expeditionary operations, we tend to picture the insertion of a ground force to seize and hold some territory for a relatively long period of time. My SPA colleague Jonathan Altman points out below, though, that short-duration raids can be just as strategically useful under the right circumstances. In this piece he examines the potential use of small-scale raids as a means of signalling and compellence outside of major war. I've asked him to write a follow-up piece as his time permits examining larger-scale raids in major war, as I believe that such operations in some scenarios might be highly useful for disrupting or rolling back an adversary's localized maritime denial capabilities.

The term “raiding” seems like an anachronism upon first reflection. For the average person, it's as likely to conjure up images of Vikings as anything else, and even serious students of military history are challenged to come up with a more recent example than WWII of an effective raid (discounting small scale Special Forces actions in the Middle East). Nonetheless, in the current security environment, where large scale maritime and land forces can be held at risk by A2/AD systems, and inter-state disputes seem to be increasingly playing out on the lower rungs of the escalation ladder, raiding operations hold terrific promise. Compared to a ‘permanent’ insertion of ground forces in some area, brief hit-and-run raids offer increased flexibility and decreased resource needs—as well as options under certain circumstances for plausible deniability. These inherently interconnected qualities and their attendant impact on conflict management suggest a future in which the practice of raiding is likely to once again become an indispensable tool for planners and policymakers alike.

A quick note on definitions is needed. For the purposes of this discussion, a “raid” is defined as a military operation by amphibious and/or airborne forces to temporarily seize enemy territory for some operational purpose. Raids in this article should be considered to be solely directed against territory-holding actors (normally recognized nation-states but a limited set of sub-state actors would also fit such as ISIS or FARC in Columbia) on a scale from a platoon to battalion size effort. Most counter-terrorist operations are accordingly outside the focus of this paper. Larger scale raids that could enable or buttress full scale military campaigns will be covered in a follow on post as these are qualitatively different operations from the smaller-scale raids described in this one.

Because they are by definition intended to be temporary actions and need not incorporate many personnel, smaller-scale raids can often be plausibly deniable. While certainly some media may correctly identify the raid as such before it is complete (especially if the raid lasts longer than a few hours), at least broadly speaking, with respect to the public and third party nations many raids should be generally deniable. This confers tremendous advantages in conflict management.

First, deniability allows the raiding nation to avoid criticism from third parties while sending a desired message of resolve and/or punitive punishment to the state or substate actor being raided. It is likely that the nation being raided will at least have an idea of who is conducting the raid and why based on the target selected, which should be enough for them to understand what brought on the attack. In this sense raiding is an excellent medium to encourage compellence, where an adversary is given a face-saving method to deescalate a conflict without being forced to publicly admit they've been compelled. Consider a scenario where the United States wished to compel a rogue nation not to continue on a path of supporting terrorism. A raid could be used against a target of military significance or symbolic value to the rogue nation's support of terrorism, whereby its seizure and/or destruction by “unknown” forces would directly retard their efforts and convey a level of seriousness that sanctions or diplomatic censure simply cannot. The willingness to spill blood through a plausibly deniable attack against a symbol of an adversary's offending behavior cannot be overstated as a demonstration of earnestness.

On a related note, the deniability of a raid also assists in ending conflicts at the lowest possible levels of escalation because it allows an adversary to potentially save face. Without a smoking gun linking the raid to a nation, the targeted nation will have a better chance of tamping down internal pressure to respond to the raid, providing an off ramp to additional escalation. Again, even if an adversary was aware of who conducted the raid with a reasonable degree of certainty, so long as they do not want war and can keep that information from firing up a domestic base then de-escalation is feasible. In any case, the nature of a raid’s target (against which actor, what sort of specific target, etc.) can be calibrated to minimize the chance of starting of a tit for tat raiding exchange. While not a certainty, de-escalation is a much more likely outcome from a deniable action than one that is not.

The other key quality associated with raids is their flexibility. While the size of a raid will vary inversely with its deniability; this too can be used to a nation’s advantage. Want to offer an adversary an escalation off-ramp? A smaller-scale raid makes sense. Want to send a message of resolve not just to the targeted adversary but also a deterrence message to other potential adversaries? Then a larger-scale raid probably is a better fit. Raids are also flexible in their duration and objectives. A longer raid may send a different message than a shorter one, and the choice of objective can be a message unto itself. For example, deliberately limited objectives may be used to showcase capabilities that could be used in a much more destructive fashion should offending actions continue, while more ambitious efforts may be used to show a commitment to not only threaten that which the adversary holds dear but also demonstrate that the raider is already prepared to (publicly) risk as many lives as it takes to stop the targeted nation. While the difference in messages is subtle, the ability to calibrate them so carefully gives raiding enormous messaging utility.

Operationally speaking, raids are a more useful tool than others because they require only a limited logistics tail and lend themselves to the element of surprise. Since raids by definition do not intend to hold territory permanently and last at most a matter of days, the supplies and supporting forces needed to execute them are comparatively minimal. One only needs a method of raiding force insertion, some small amount of supplies to support the operation, and perhaps some combined arms supporting fires if the circumstances dictate. Since the scale of resources is relatively small (for short operations raiders may simply carry on their bodies all that they need), it is likely that the preparations for a raid can be kept secret, and a range of platforms not available to larger operations can be used. For example, “white shipping” (unmarked, non-military flagged ships) or relying exclusively on airborne insertion and exfiltration can be effective in facilitating successful raids. Beyond supply needs, because a raid by definition is a relatively small operation, the number of people and computer networks needed to plan and execute the raid can also be small, making the potential for adversary discovery of the raid before the fact much less likely. Thus because the preparations for a raid can be done in a highly secure manner, raids are much more likely to maintain the element of surprise than other military operations with similar objectives; thereby lowering the risk to the raiders themselves and amplifying the chance of mission success.

Looking out to a future where inter-state conflict continues to take place at lower levels of the escalation ladder, and where obfuscating one's own military actions will be important to achieving national objectives, raiding would seem to be an essential part of a military planner's toolkit. Raids convey national level resolve at a minimum risk of friendly loss of life, and provide an adversary with either escalation off-ramps and/or clear direction that a behavior will not be allowed to continue. It's time to think about raiding less from an historical lens and instead consider how it can best be used for strategic effect in the modern world.

Jonathan Altman is a Program Analyst with Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. who holds a Master’s Degree in International Security from the Korbel School at the University of Denver and an undergraduate degree from Wake Forest University. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not reflect the official positions of Systems Planning and Analysis Inc., and to the author’s knowledge do not reflect the policies or positions of the U.S. Department of Defense, any U.S. armed service, or any other U.S. Government agency.

THS2
Oct 2, 2021

that is a profoundly deranged and stupid article

Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3
Nov 15, 2003
drat where did these mohawk indians get an amphibious assault ship

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

THS2 posted:

that is a profoundly deranged and stupid article

There are more where that came from. CNAS is producing absolutely insane papers right now Navigating the Russia-China Partnership (proposes a Sino-Soviet split is possible if Russia can be humbled), Lessons from the Syrian Conflict (regime change was possible, the public would have come around), e-Sports and the Military.

There are several recent articles on Taiwan that are absolutely chilling lol, but more importantly

a ghoul podcast called Brussels Sprouts

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Citing my Letter of Marque as a defense against hypersonic missiles

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

i just remembered that ukraine war twitter superstar michael kofman also works at cnas

lmao

Antonymous
Apr 4, 2009

Grapplejack posted:

It's kind of amazing how hosed up Shanghai is, they really dropped the ball hard on everything in the past like 2-3 months. Wasn't one of the Xi rival cliques from Shanghai too?

Xi is from the shanghai clique but I think that's not really relevant in 2022

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
My favorite thing about the raids article is the sheer lack of practicality. Like maybe you get this battalion ashore, but you are sure as poo poo not getting it off in the same commercial boat.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Weka posted:

My favorite thing about the raids article is the sheer lack of practicality. Like maybe you get this battalion ashore, but you are sure as poo poo not getting it off in the same commercial boat.

What part of “Deniable” didn’t you understand? 🏴‍☠️

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
Armenia and Russia working to dedollarize bilateral trade

Armenia has already switched to paying for natural gas from Russia in rubles. Discussions are underway to conduct all trade in rubles and dram.

Hungry
Jul 14, 2006

Tankbuster posted:

Loads of Chinese people play management type games like Rimworld too.

Half of the mods on Rimworld's steam workshop are Chinese translations of other mods, and they often go up within hours of the originals. It's crazy popular there.

Buck Wildman
Mar 30, 2010

I am Metango, Galactic Governor


Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:

drat where did these mohawk indians get an amphibious assault ship

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

Frosted Flake posted:


It's Time to Consider Raiding, Again

love the western rules-based international order

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

OhFunny posted:

Armenia and Russia working to dedollarize bilateral trade

Armenia has already switched to paying for natural gas from Russia in rubles. Discussions are underway to conduct all trade in rubles and dram.

chinathread/doomsday economics thread crossover material

HiroProtagonist
May 7, 2007

lmao this was every english lesson i had in japan

ok, slightly exaggerating but the shoutiness is not

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

Frosted Flake posted:

Jonathan Altman is a Program Analyst with Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. who holds a Master’s Degree in International Security from the Korbel School at the University of Denver and an undergraduate degree from Wake Forest University. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not reflect the official positions of Systems Planning and Analysis Inc., and to the author’s knowledge do not reflect the policies or positions of the U.S. Department of Defense, any U.S. armed service, or any other U.S. Government agency.

If we could hypothetically round up everyone with this kind of derangement and gave them all guided dmt meditations, what would militaries look like?

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

love the western rules-based international order



Listen, it was vital to act against Chinese A2/AD weapons systems threatening strategic interests in the South China Sea and denying access to the Pei Ho River. These limited, deniable raids had no lasting impact on diplomatic relations, and in fact prevented further escalation.

No, I don’t see why mentioning maritime raids as a legitimate way to curb “undemocratic local nation-state actors” could meet any kind of pushback. Raids and Gunboats (Littoral Combatants) are simply the most economical use of naval power to achieve diplomatic results. Raiding nation-state actors who threaten US regional interests upholds the security of the rules based international order.

Constructing A2/AD weapons is the provocation here. Denying navigation of coasts and inland waterways, while technically within the 3-12 mile limit established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is still an extremely threatening move against the Rules Based International Order that must be met with a strengthened military posture. Forts along the estuary of the Pei Ho deny access to Peking to US vessels, threatening US policy goals in the region.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 02:52 on Apr 24, 2022

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

English is such a cursed language.

Antonymous
Apr 4, 2009

AnimeIsTrash posted:

English is such a cursed language.

most people like it

Buck Wildman
Mar 30, 2010

I am Metango, Galactic Governor


AnimeIsTrash posted:

English is such a cursed language.

many say this but a single keats poem melts them like butter makes you think

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

The deniable part kills me. They’re going to blame Wokou for blowing up a missile battery on the Spratly Islands?



“Well there’s precedent, it must have been them, no need to escalate or retaliate against the United States.”

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
This makes zero sense (financial, logistic, common sense etc). If US is willing to field a half way decent naval ship to do "pirateering", they would have given that ship to Philippine already.

HiroProtagonist
May 7, 2007

Buck Wildman posted:

many say this but a single keats poem melts them like butter makes you think

i am gay.
-oscar wilde

Buck Wildman
Mar 30, 2010

I am Metango, Galactic Governor


Frosted Flake posted:

The deniable part kills me. They’re going to blame Wokou for blowing up a missile battery on the Spratly Islands?



“Well there’s precedent, it must have been them, no need to escalate or retaliate against the United States.”

that dude not liking what he's seeing under that armor

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1518053128934854656

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply