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I just hope that Trump's account is well and truly gone, since if he gets it back things are going to get very bad very fast.
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Apr 25, 2022 15:07
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Dr. VooDoo posted:I mean this will lead to the death of Twitter and that’s a good thing at this point as clearly mankind can not handle social media It'd probably just make twitter a worse and more toxic echo chamber for all the worst trends.
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Apr 25, 2022 15:12
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Roluth posted:I just hope that Trump's account is well and truly gone, since if he gets it back things are going to get very bad very fast. Can you explain what you mean by this?
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Apr 25, 2022 15:55
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Bishyaler posted:Can you explain what you mean by this?
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Apr 25, 2022 15:59
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Bishyaler posted:Can you explain what you mean by this? I was hoping that the followers on Trump's account were also wiped, so he'd have to at the very least build that back up. Either way, that account was one of the reasons he won 2016, so with it back he's a shoe-in for 2024 at this rate.
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Apr 25, 2022 15:59
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JazzFlight posted:Isn't it obvious? Him being off Twitter has mostly kept him out of the public eye. Him getting a platform again would definitely up his visibility and help any potential campaign. At this point it also might help the Democrats in the midterms, reminding the public at large just how odious and lovely the guy is. 
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Apr 25, 2022 16:00
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The account can probably be re-hydrated easily, services like Twitter almost never permanently delete anything and would just have disabled the ability to log in and post And yeah, there's no way to tell whether a fresh stream of trump tweets would cause a replay of 2016 or 2020
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Apr 25, 2022 16:00
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How are u posted:At this point it also might help the Democrats in the midterms, reminding the public at large just how odious and lovely the guy is. People have been saying this for how long now? Trump energises the base, like loving crack. They'll crawl over broken glass to vote in his name.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:02
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Ghost Leviathan posted:People have been saying this for how long now? Trump energises the base, like loving crack. They'll crawl over broken glass to vote in his name. Really super confused about why people think this guy is some kind of unstoppable electoral juggernaut.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:04
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JazzFlight posted:Isn't it obvious? Him being off Twitter has mostly kept him out of the public eye. Him getting a platform again would definitely up his visibility and help any potential campaign. As of today, if he runs, he wins. I don't really see how Twitter is a factor in this at all.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:05
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Mellow Seas posted:Trump won a single election by a margin of 40,000 votes across three states, with cartoonishly massive unpaid media support (while losing the popular vote by millions), and then lost reelection, while presiding over two elections where Democrats won the House. I mean, all the advantages you list still exist. He doesn't have to completely clown his opponent - hell, he doesn't even need to get more votes - he just needs to come close and then the broken system hands him the presidency again.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:09
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Ghost Leviathan posted:People have been saying this for how long now? Trump energises the base, like loving crack. They'll crawl over broken glass to vote in his name. Every single election result and poll also shows that he energizes more people against him, but it doesn't really matter if he is not on the ballot. The 2018 midterms were the highest turnout modern midterms (by a large 10+% increase over the average) and there was a nearly 20 point margin in the number of voters who came "primarily to vote against Trump" compared to "primarily voted to support Trump" The perception of the previous President has never had an impact on the next President's midterms. The Dems won a landslide victory against Reagan right in the first midterms after Carter, the Republicans won a landslide victory against Obama while Bush had a 27% approval rating, and the Republicans won a historic midterm victory in 1994 when George H.W. Bush had a 30% approval rating.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:11
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Bishyaler posted:As of today, if he runs, he wins. I don't really see how Twitter is a factor in this at all. There is no way to know Trump would win if he runs. Not sure why people keep acting as if they know things that can't possibly be predicted.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:12
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Mellow Seas posted:Trump won a single election by a margin of 40,000 votes across three states Biden won by almost the exact same margin (43k votes across PA, GA, and AZ) but now he's the incumbent. It's not a great sign. And he also had great media support in 2020 because all of the news was about Trump and how terrible Trump was (but I repeat myself) all the time Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Apr 25, 2022 |
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Apr 25, 2022 16:12
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Gort posted:I mean, all the advantages you list still exist. He doesn't have to completely clown his opponent - hell, he doesn't even need to get more votes - he just needs to come close and then the broken system hands him the presidency again. So are we allowed to talk about the broken system and the radical changes needed to improve/fix it or is that still "tedious"?
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Apr 25, 2022 16:12
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There have been head to head polls comparing Trump to the presumed Democratic nominees, where he does indeed win, but these are notoriously unreliable so far out.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:13
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Harold Fjord posted:Biden won by almost the exact same margin (43k votes across PA, GA, and AZ)
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Apr 25, 2022 16:16
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It looks like a toss-up at first glance but incumbency disadvantage in hard times really makes me think it leans heavily against Biden. Turn out messaging is there for Trump. It's probably going to come down to whether Trump seems as threatening after the past 4 years. I don't think he will.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:17
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Roluth posted:I just hope that Trump's account is well and truly gone, since if he gets it back things are going to get very bad very fast. Bringing back Trump's account is one of the first things Elon will do.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:18
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Bishyaler posted:As of today, if he runs, he wins. I don't really see how Twitter is a factor in this at all. As others have stated, it's impossible to know at this point if Trump would win since it's so far out. The latest Harvard/Harris poll from this month shows Trump has a slight advantage, but with a large amount of people being unsure:  https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/HHP_April2022_KeyResults.pdf E: Whoops, I apparently cannot read a legend. Harvard/Harris shouldn't use red for Democrat/blue for Republican 
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Apr 25, 2022 16:19
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Harold Fjord posted:Biden won by almost the exact same margin but now he's the incumbent. It's not a great sign. Different states, though. Biden won PA by 2%, Michigan by 3%, and the popular vote by ~4.5%. The margin states were Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. They were R+6, R+4, and R+7 respectively in the previous election. Trump's 2016 margin states were D+0.9, R+1.5, and D+5. Trump did significantly outperform in Michigan, but his narrow win was actually a lot closer than Biden's narrow win because the electoral college means that not all votes are equal. You'd need the national political climate to undergo a pretty huge shift or for Georgia/Arizona/Wisconsin to completely detour from the fundamentals for him to lose. Whereas the basic fundamentals would have caused Trump to lose.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The margin states were Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. I fail to see how pointing out that these were previously strongly R proves they can't flip back. And lol if you think the national political climate hasn't shifted significantly since the election. This isn't even considering how Republicans are openly plotting to overrule their own voters at the state legislative level when needed.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:28
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Elephant Ambush posted:So are we allowed to talk about the broken system and the radical changes needed to improve/fix it or is that still "tedious"? Is this in reference to something I said? I searched my posts in this thread and I've never used the word "tedious"
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Apr 25, 2022 16:31
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Harold Fjord posted:I fail to see how pointing out that these were previously strongly R proves they can't flip back. I totally agree with you about 2024. I'm just saying that using "they got close to the same number of raw votes, so they were the same" isn't really indicative of anything. That's also not factoring in the relative size and portion of available votes for each state. Winning by 7,000 votes in an election where 6+ million were cast is not the same margin as winning as by 7,000 votes in an election where 212,000 votes were cast.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:34
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Ghost Leviathan posted:People have been saying this for how long now? Trump energises the base, like loving crack. They'll crawl over broken glass to vote in his name. Republicans / Trumpist fascists are already maximally energized. They can't get any more hyped than they are. I'm not saying a Trump return to Twitter is a good and cool thing, but it might be more of a mixed bag.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:36
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How are u posted:Republicans / Trumpist fascists are already maximally energized. They can't get any more hyped than they are. I'm not saying a Trump return to Twitter is a good and cool thing, but it might be more of a mixed bag. It's true that Republicans are energized right now according to polls. As most people here probably know, this is usually the case for the out-of-power party in midterms. It might be especially strong because of how much they hate Biden, but I'm not sure.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:38
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
The increase in turnout (2020%/2016%)was 22%. I'm not sure what you think it proves with this analogy but it doesn't make things look better for Biden that with increased turnout he did not have an increased raw margin. They'll probably steal at least one state's electoral votes.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:39
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Well good thing there hasn't been an ongoing effort at rigging Democracy, suppressing votes, and one party outright saying they will refuse to allow any result that isn't them winning. Boy that would suck.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:39
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Please stop doom posting (in general and specifically) like the election is a done deal. A billion things can and will happen between now and two Novembers from now.How are u posted:Republicans / Trumpist fascists are already maximally energized. They can't get any more hyped than they are. I'm not saying a Trump return to Twitter is a good and cool thing, but it might be more of a mixed bag. Deplatforming works. It won't affect his die hard fans of course, but it is good that he is not the top of the national conversation 24/7 anymore. Bottom Liner fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Apr 25, 2022 |
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Apr 25, 2022 16:44
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Bishyaler posted:As of today, if he runs, he wins. I don't really see how Twitter is a factor in this at all. Forgot to say, if you make a statement with this much confidence, please source or at least explain it.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:46
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Harold Fjord posted:The increase in turnout (2020%/2016%)was 22%. I'm not sure what you think it proves with this analogy but it doesn't make things look better for Biden that with increased turnout he did not have an increased raw margin. You're looking at different states with the absolute margin count. The 22% increased turnout was nationwide. Biden got a significantly larger margin of more than 7 million votes on that metric. The 3 margin states were different in 2016 and 2020. That is what the significance is. The different states make the impact of each individual vote different. Biden improved on the 2016 performance in Trump's 3 margin states by more than 22% as well. A 7,000 vote margin in California is extremely unbelievably close because of the objective vote total, the partisan lean of the state overall, and the population of 30+ million people. A 7,000 vote margin in Arizona is representative of a significantly different outcome for all of the same reasons. That doesn't mean that it wasn't close or that he won't lose in 2024. Just that the specific comparison of raw vote total in margin states doesn't really mean anything if you are using the margins in different states.
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Apr 25, 2022 16:49
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Kinda academic since a republican controlled Senate and House will never certify a democratic candidate's presidential win ever again.
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Apr 25, 2022 17:05
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Fabricated posted:Kinda academic since a republican controlled Senate and House will never certify a democratic candidate's presidential win ever again. Source your election predictions if you're going to state them as fact, especially 2 cycles out.
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Apr 25, 2022 17:06
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Bottom Liner posted:Source your election predictions if you're going to state them as fact, especially 2 cycles out. They tried the play in 2020 and failed cause they didn't have the votes. Why wouldn't they do it again? They didn't face any consequences for it. Edit: To be clear, it's probably the last option should their state level fuckery and straight up vote overturning doesn't work. They're very clear about ignoring rules, decorum, and democracy, to get what they want. The democrats, to date, haven't really punished them for it.
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Apr 25, 2022 17:12
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Bottom Liner posted:Source your election predictions if you're going to state them as fact, especially 2 cycles out. A big part of the GOP slate is actively saying the election was stolen.
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Apr 25, 2022 17:17
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Meatball posted:They tried the play in 2020 and failed cause they didn't have the votes. Why wouldn't they do it again? They didn't face any consequences for it. Why would they have the votes? The objections were overwhelmingly defeated by even Republican senators. As a reminder of how badly the two objections were defeated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_States_Electoral_College_vote_count#Arizona Kalit fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Apr 25, 2022 |
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Apr 25, 2022 17:19
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Fabricated posted:A big part of the GOP slate is actively saying the election was stolen. That doesn't mean they can actually steal a future election. \/ that doesn't support anything being proposed as bygone results. The worst of the GOP have been saying the same poo poo since Obama won the first time. Trump just gave them cover/encouragement to be more loud about it, but they've been just as unsuccessful and stopped by their own party. Bottom Liner fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Apr 25, 2022 |
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Apr 25, 2022 17:25
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no but its another incremental step in the wrong direction.
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Apr 25, 2022 17:36
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The Mark Meadows texts are entertaining. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1518628760571944965?s=20&t=kGoPOuf5SjF52GyCZIe0_g https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1518628904096862208?s=20&t=kGoPOuf5SjF52GyCZIe0_g EDIT: LOL https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1518623703038590977?s=20&t=kGoPOuf5SjF52GyCZIe0_g
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Apr 25, 2022 17:45
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Gort posted:Is this in reference to something I said? I searched my posts in this thread and I've never used the word "tedious" Apologies. That question was not directed at you personally.
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Apr 25, 2022 17:46
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