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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:
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May 7, 2022 08:05
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Rust Martialis posted:Lack of confirmation on hitting the frigate still making me think it's a rumor yet There's zero chance Russia will own up to it before May 9th. Probably not even in months. The loss of Moskva was a PR nightmare, and was so badly handled because everything was so ad-hoc. They probably established some new procedures after it. the popes toes posted:There's reports but no formal government claims, I don't think. Formally, they understand to make a claim, and to have to walk it back later, reduces credibility. So they have only said they are trying to verify it, but won't even comment if they actually fired upon her. Can't find the link, but the source was I believe, Arestovych. Ukrainian general staff added +1 "ship or boat" to their officially claimed Russian losses list yesterday. They didn't specify what kind of ship or boat (they use the same category for Moskva as they use for those 55ft patrol boats), so that leaves some wiggle room there, but there is at least some official claim for a sunk bote.
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May 7, 2022 08:49
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PT6A posted:Would it not be LNR/DNR forces rather than the Russian military proper on the opposing side? No, it would not. “LDNR forces” are 3.5 thugs that lost it to the like 5000-strong Ukrainian army back in 2014 and had to be bailed out by Russian army crossing the border. Useful idiots as they are, they though likely were the people manning the fortifications closest to government’s positions, as well as running provocations more likely to have a fatal outcome. A GIANT PARSNIP posted:So how did Ukraine end up with a poo poo load of Donbas war vets while Russia has none? Did Russia just cycle poo poo through the grinder for the last 8 years, or did they already lose their combat vets? Ukraine was intentionally cycling their entire armed force through Donbas trenches. Russia has veterans from there as well, but we have no telling how much - likely much fewer, since they didn’t have anything much to do (dynamic of the conflict for the past 7 or so years was broadly “government fortifications get shelled” -> “government forces respond with counter-battery fire”), and, despite everything we’ve seen so far, I would be surprised to learn that a lot or conscripts had gone down to Donbas. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 09:13 on May 7, 2022 |
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May 7, 2022 08:54
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Wildeyes posted:Imagine if the Nazis complained about Naziphobia the entire time they were committing atrocities. Crying crocodile tears over how badly germans were treated was part of the deal since day 1, check out Hitler’s 1939 invasion speech and see how frighteningly familiar it is: https://fcit.usf.edu/holocaust/resource/document/HITLER1.htm quote:I must here state something definitely; German has kept these obligations; the minorities who live in Germany are not persecuted. No Frenchman can stand up and say that any Frenchman living in the Saar territory is oppressed, tortured, or deprived of his rights. Nobody can say this.
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May 7, 2022 09:06
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gay picnic defence posted:It's the sheer contempt towards their own troops that staggers me. How can they honestly expect them to fight effectively if there's a mile long list of examples of the Russian chain of command not giving a single gently caress about them? No wonder there's morale problems. No, it is not. Complaining about it will just get you even worse treatment, usually. Lead out in cuffs posted:Just a reminder that most of the troops are members of ethnic minorities from the corners of Russia, while most of the officers are true Russian ubermenschen from the heartlands. This is not too accurate, in my opinion. Minorities are disproportionately recruited, and regions like Dagestan have borne the heaviest known losses, that is true. Majority of the army is still ethnic Russians though - more than 80% of country are ethnic Russians. A more useful divide to look at is Moscow/St. Petersburg versus the rest of it, where the disparity is rather stark, and most likely intentionally so.
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May 7, 2022 09:12
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evilweasel posted:that in russia conscripts only serve for a year means they're pretty much by definition untrained for anything that requires any serious training Also there's been comments in this thread implying reservists called in being as good as completely untrained which is strange as well, I mean, even if their service was 10 or 15 years ago they have gone through it. Some training is required but it's not like they need to redo boot camp. Who do people think is fighting the war on Ukraine's side? All professional soldiers? (Military service in Ukraine is 12 to 18 months.)
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May 7, 2022 09:15
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Valtonen posted:Attacker needing 3-1 odds is in the operation, not the war. In theory if one side has air superiority or some other means to control the battle space (long range fires, better logistics and command, etc) in order to limit the mobility of the other side they can create local superiority on the area of their choosing even if the overall numbers are not 3-1. Exactly. According to Glanz, at the start of Barbarossa Germany had an advantage of 1:1.4 over Red Army in the east front. By December this had eroded and in 1942 Soviets had an advantage of 1.5:1 even when Germans were still launching a major offensive. After Stalingrad the situation was momentarily 2:1 but it changed month to month due to heavy operational casualties and took until October 1944 to reach a 3:1 advantage and in April 1945 3.5:1.
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May 7, 2022 09:36
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d64 posted:Maybe you mean this as a comment on the quality of training in Russia but in general this is a weird statement. For example the Finnish armed forces are said to be relatively capable and they are conscription based, the service being six months to a year in length. finland doesn't spend 11 months of conscription beating the absolute gently caress out of conscripts. Dedovschina, poo poo morale, procurement issues relating to gear having been stolen/sold off, and conscripts getting used purely as unskilled labor is the main reason why no one expects Russian conscripts to have almost any impact at all compared to other armies that use conscripts
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May 7, 2022 09:36
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d64 posted:Maybe you mean this as a comment on the quality of training in Russia but in general this is a weird statement. For example the Finnish armed forces are said to be relatively capable and they are conscription based, the service being six months to a year in length. Conscripts don't get as much training in Russia as they should for purposes of being used as reserves. A few weeks ago there was a link noting that the Russians don't involve many conscripts in their war games, for example - for cost reasons, apparently. Ukraine, in contrast, has pursued a policy of building up its military and of rotating conscripts through the Donbass front to give them more experience. That brigade commander interview from a while back said they were putting reservists into existing formations in the JFO, letting them rotate troops to keep them fresh. However, I do think you are right that some posts are exaggerating things. You don't need that much training to be useful, tho even refresher training will take a few weeks. If Syria is anything to go by, reservists/second line troops will mostly be holding ground, anyway.
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May 7, 2022 09:44
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the popes toes posted:Seems a small hill to die on. I don't get it. I think it was invested by the Ukrainians merely for cartagraphic ownership purposes? I don't understand why it is "strategic" except maybe to Romania. It is harder to sink an island than any other platform for observation posts, radars, missiles etc. It is also situated in front of the southern part of Odesa oblast which is in front of Moldova and Transnistria. Having a presence there would be advantageous if Russia plans to invade there. And on the other hand, it will tie more Ukrainian troops in the south.
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May 7, 2022 09:50
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d64 posted:Maybe you mean this as a comment on the quality of training in Russia but in general this is a weird statement. For example the Finnish armed forces are said to be relatively capable and they are conscription based, the service being six months to a year in length. Not sure I agree that Russian basic training is useful, especially 10-15 years down the line of broad inactivity. In any case, Russia has different kinds of “reserve” troops: 1) Replacement troops – people who finished conscription service with discharge into replacement, people who received military education, people who received a military service waiver, people whose military service didn't happen due to being delayed past the age of 27, people who were not eligible for military service by the age of 27, draft dodgers, people discharged from military service and later appointed into replacement troops, people who did alternative civil service, and women with a military-adjacent profession. This is the primary reserve, and as you can see, it has a whole load of people who have never seen a gun. They have “gatherings” where they're supposed to train, but lol & lmao, and they're capped at 12 months over lifetime. 2) Combat army reserve – an experimental 2021 thing to solve the problem of low quality of existing reserve troops. This looks like it was started either for a transition towards American-style armed forces, or to prepare an actually useful reserve if Ukraine goes sideways. We don't know how many of them are there. These would be people with military service background, who are part of (1) – they get paid regularly, and have to train regularly. 2) General mobilisation poo poo. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:03 on May 7, 2022 |
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May 7, 2022 09:56
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Lol Russia lost two loving large naval vessels to Ukraine incouding a "''capital" cruiser what a joke of a Nazi war machine To be a eligible for Nazi war machine status you need to lose big warships. It's a tradition started with the Bismarck.
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May 7, 2022 09:56
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It also gives you 12 nautical miles of territorial waters claim around it, which is significant
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May 7, 2022 09:56
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Nenonen posted:It is harder to sink an island than any other platform for observation posts, radars, missiles etc. It is also situated in front of the southern part of Odesa oblast which is in front of Moldova and Transnistria. Having a presence there would be advantageous if Russia plans to invade there. And on the other hand, it will tie more Ukrainian troops in the south. It's tiny, barren and 20 miles from the Ukrainian mainland. Stationing more than a platoon there is just feeding Russian conscripts to Ukrainian artillery.
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May 7, 2022 10:02
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nimby posted:To be a eligible for Nazi war machine status you need to lose big warships. It's a tradition started with the Bismarck. Actually it started with Blücher 
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May 7, 2022 10:10
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Ah yes, the ship sunk in honorable naval combat with, uh, a fort firing torpedoes?
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May 7, 2022 10:12
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The extra fun bit with this is that it was both a cruiser, like Moskva, and sank purely by coastal defenses just like Moskva. The main difference is Moskva gets the grand distinction of being the first warship sunk during a war in the 21st century. Are ya winnin' Putin?
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May 7, 2022 10:15
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Ah yes, the ship sunk in honorable naval combat with, uh, a fort firing torpedoes? A fort firing vintage 1900 Whitehead torpedoes.  
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May 7, 2022 10:17
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be4bLNa15hk Or if you prefer less dramatised https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn_3vYYViAo NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 10:21 on May 7, 2022 |
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May 7, 2022 10:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:1) Replacement troops – people who finished conscription service with discharge into replacement, people who received military education, people who received a military service waiver, people whose military service didn't happen due to being delayed past the age of 27, people who were not eligible for military service by the age of 27, draft dodgers, people discharged from military service and later appointed into replacement troops, people who did alternative civil service, and women with a military-adjacent profession. This is the primary reserve, and as you can see, it has a whole load of people who have never seen a gun. They have “gatherings” where they're supposed to train, but lol & lmao, and they're capped at 12 months over lifetime. Yeah, they have a couple million reservists on paper but in actuality weeeeeell: "Historically, only 10 percent of reservists receive refresher training after completing their initial term of service.[12] Russia lacks the administrative and financial capacity to train reservists on an ongoing basis. According to a 2019 RAND analysis, Russia only had 4,000 to 5,000 troops in what would be considered an active reserve in the Western sense, meaning soldiers attending regular monthly and annual training." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization
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May 7, 2022 10:21
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:However, I do think you are right that some posts are exaggerating things. You don't need that much training to be useful, tho even refresher training will take a few weeks. If Syria is anything to go by, reservists/second line troops will mostly be holding ground, anyway. A big issue for Russian offensive intentions has been that since Ukrainians are not receiving them with flowers and open arms, they will need to take cities by force. Mariupol shows how easy this is, and Kharkiv is a much larger city, not to mention Kyiv. So they absolutely will need more boots on the ground, even if there's only one boot per reservist. Oh, and the logistical capacity is still limited, so you better live from the land... There's just no good solutions for Putin. He can't admit defeat, the offensive is not progressing, and mobilisation is also not ideal. And Ukraine is probably not satisfied with leaving Mariupol to Russia so he can't just call for ceasefire and freezing the conflict. Out of these a withdrawal to 2021 positions with a ceasefire and removal of sanctions would be the least risky choice, he could bring some Azov POW's to television for two minutes hate and then declare Ukraine denazified. Mobilisation and escalation would be way riskier, but by doubling down Putin may think he would have a better negotiating position.
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May 7, 2022 10:24
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Marshal Prolapse posted:What happened in the Crimea war and why did the UK change? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War#Criticisms_and_reform tl;dr: new communications technology allowed the public to see how poo poo war was for the soldiers and they got mad about it. Russia also started reforms but the Tsar got assassinated before they really took hold.
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May 7, 2022 11:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Words can’t describe how hard Russia did gently caress this all up. Those are unreal numbers. late to being able to look at this and unhelpfully contribute "holy poo poo" but holy poo poo the numbers not so subtly suggest that russia has managed a kind of hat trick of widespread loathing, which probably required explicit and unilateral actions that blew out their soft power and image management, PLUS a toxic buildup of distrust from years of the weird gangster poo poo they use as their international toolbox. End result is a whole organized bloc of countries who universally loathes them, and the other bloc of countries which is being very careful not to explicitly stand with them.
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May 7, 2022 11:30
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https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1522643473467420675
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May 7, 2022 12:03
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https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1522694041804341248
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May 7, 2022 12:13
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Obviously also driven by oil prices. A barrel was $80 in January, today it's nearly $110.
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May 7, 2022 12:32
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bps5hJ5DQDw&t=27s
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May 7, 2022 12:54
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 --- footage of Ukrainian strike on a Russian boat near Snake Island. This one is 3x the tonage of the two cutters (it's some sort of small landing craft), but it's no Frigate. This may be the official "+1 boat".https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522853902101667842
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May 7, 2022 13:11
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New grim doc from Vice from near Kyiv and Sievierodonetsk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvNc9yDox8U
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May 7, 2022 13:21
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OddObserver posted:
Oryx thinks the landing craft was delivering a SAM system at the time, so both were taken out: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1522859446409564160 Kinda amusing that the current Russian tactics on Snake Island is to keep delivering fresh SAM systems to get blown up. This one didn't even touch dry land first.
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May 7, 2022 13:37
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OddObserver posted:
I'm starting to suspect the Makarov has actually just caught fire by itself. Based on the state of the Moscow even an accidental fire could take the average Russian ship out of the war.
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May 7, 2022 13:52
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d64 posted:Maybe you mean this as a comment on the quality of training in Russia but in general this is a weird statement. For example the Finnish armed forces are said to be relatively capable and they are conscription based, the service being six months to a year in length. The training you need to be an effective infantryman strikes me as very different from being an effective sailor on a military boat. There’s just too much to learn to be always training new people who also need the intro boot camp.
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May 7, 2022 13:57
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The conscripts on boats are dudes who were conscripted and then placed in the navy, not rando army reservists
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May 7, 2022 14:02
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ79i11JSnU Pro click, in all modesty.
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May 7, 2022 15:15
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Just Another Lurker posted:A fort firing vintage 1900 Whitehead torpedoes. Wikipedia says those torpedo tubes were active until 1993  they had been modernized in 1980's but I want to learn more about the fever scenario where Warsaw Pact ships make it into the Oslo Fjord in 1989 and 89 year old torpedos is the only way NATO can stop them.
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May 7, 2022 15:30
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OddObserver posted:footage of Ukrainian strike on a Russian boat near Snake Island. This one is 3x the tonage of the two cutters (it's some sort of small landing craft), but it's no Frigate. This may be the official "+1 boat". https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1522858840991182848 Come back alive charity doing things https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1522936117343010816 Reportedly 4 explosions in Transnistria https://mobile.twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1522875184725823488 Polska OSINT saying ship is missing, not at sea or port despite fake pictures circulating. Can assume it has started the special underwater operation Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 15:41 on May 7, 2022 |
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May 7, 2022 15:33
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uncleTomOfFinland posted:Crying crocodile tears over how badly germans were treated was part of the deal since day 1, check out Hitler’s 1939 invasion speech and see how frighteningly familiar it is: Welp, evidently fascism never changes.
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May 7, 2022 16:06
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https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2022-05-06/retour-du-tireur-d-elite-wali/la-guerre-c-est-une-deception-terrible.php Canadian sniper Wali returns home after describing war as "dissapointing." Some NSFW descriptions of war in the article.
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May 7, 2022 16:32
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https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1522914149898113025
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May 7, 2022 16:34
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| # ? Jun 13, 2024 07:25 |
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I hadn't even considered this perspective but this seems like a very legitimate point: "“I just think it’s disrespectful to the Ukrainians,” Sipher said. “It’s taking away from the people who are actually on the ground, who are taking advantage of the intelligence, who are collecting their own intelligence, who are fighting day and night.” However, he did not think that it significantly raised the risk of escalation between Russia and Nato."
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May 7, 2022 16:39
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