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I'll go on the record here: I'll predict that Ukraine wins back all of it's legal territory, including Crimea, and that the war ends with negotiations around Russia returning the people it kidnapped / is kidnapping. Edit: I don't snipe often, but when I do it's only with the highest quality badposts.
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May 10, 2022 20:28
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Starsfan posted:A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon. A military defeat in Ukraine will never result in an existential threat to Russia (Ukraine as a member of NATO as an existential threat, seriously?) and pretending that this war is in any way is existential to it is believing the looniest of Russian talking heads and those moronic "historical" articles that Putin wrote - who dont actually believe in what they say themselves. If we think that Putin is just beyond mad with nukes then we may as well believe that he has a dead man switch that will go off even when he dies of old age or other silly things. Which is just useless.
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May 10, 2022 20:29
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Ynglaur posted:I'll go on the record here: I'll predict that Ukraine wins back all of it's legal territory, including Crimea, and that the war ends with negotiations around Russia returning the people it kidnapped / is kidnapping. Is this a genuine prediction or
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May 10, 2022 20:30
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The issue is that it's simultaneously true that Russia has put itself in an impossible situation, but it also has a giant rage quit button that theoretically ends the world. It means that at some point someone will have to bail them out so they don't press that button.
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May 10, 2022 20:30
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Starsfan posted:I was being a little bit sarcastic about the nukes dropping = ukraine winning thing, but Russia has been pretty consistent for decades now on the way things are going to be in eastern Europe and what they view as the circumstances under which the Russian state can continue to exist. You can say that you don't think they would do it, I'm not so certain if they feel that they can't achieve their objectives by any other means. Yes let's give in to the nuclear blackmail I made up sounds like a solid strategy old chap.
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May 10, 2022 20:31
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Atreiden posted:Yes let's give in to the nuclear blackmail I made up sounds like a solid strategy old chap. yeah it's hosed up lol **I mean the Americans already gave into the blackmail, haven't we already heard a hundred times about how they won't put a no fly zone in over Ukraine because that would lead to nuclear confrontation? that's capitulation! Ukraine doesn't pose any actual threat on their own to Russia so Putin doesn't give a poo poo if they shoot up his boys in a conventional land war as long as it goes Russia's way in the end.. I mean again I acknowledge it's a lovely situation, but it's the reality we're faced with Starsfan fucked around with this message at 20:35 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 20:32
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Baronjutter posted:I think the real issue will be Russia in 5 or 10 or 20 years. This humiliating loss without Russia actually being occupied and de-nazified will absolutely result in even more pent up bitter revanchism and victim complex. We are going to need to deal with Russia pulling poo poo like this again the moment they can. Occupation and regime change is impossible against a nuclear power, and I worry any internal revolution would be a coup be an even more revanchist fascist psychopath movement. What the hell is the world going to do with Russia in the long term? With a continued isolation from the west, Russia will increasingly become dependent on China. This will lead to growing influence of China in the Russian economic and also internal political sphere. China is interested of a stable Russia, so as long as the Taiwan situation will not blow up, I think in a couple of decades Russia will be reduced to a completely secondary and passive theatre in the greater economic and geostrategic positioning of China, USA and the other larger power blocks. Russia basically has no other options.. It can either play nice with China or the West. If they are really scared of the Chinese horde eating up their eastern parts and taking them over.. peascefully/economically/culturally... maybe they will change course and do an honest to god reset with the West in 10 years? SirTagz fucked around with this message at 20:37 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 20:34
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uPen posted:The treaty of Versailles which completely demilitarized Germany while retaining the military power of the western allies, and levied enormous financial burdens on Germany to prevent them from rebuilding and rearming their country (and enforced these economic burdens through military occupation) wasn't particularly punishing? From what I recall when you convert the $132 billion gold marks to equivalent value today, it was roughly equivalent to the same amount that Germany forced France to pay at the end of the Franco-Prussian war (adjusted to today's value) and also enforced through military occupation. Like wasn't the main thing, prior to the Great Depression, less Germany being unable to pay or it being crushing to do so, but more them trying to find ways to get out of paying?
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May 10, 2022 20:36
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Starsfan posted:yeah it's hosed up lol No that's a reality you made up. Russia have wisely not threatened to use nukes if they don't get to occupy Ukraine.
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May 10, 2022 20:37
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Morrow posted:The issue is that it's simultaneously true that Russia has put itself in an impossible situation, but it also has a giant rage quit button that theoretically ends the world. It means that at some point someone will have to bail them out so they don't press that button. I think that realistically it’s not possible to influence irrational behavior. If NATO signed away the whole of Eastern Europe tomorrow, it still would not reduce the threat of Putin deciding to blow up the world for another spurious reason, because the entire concept is insane. Also, the only thing that the Russian elites care about is themselves and Moscow. Their conception of an existential crisis does not include Russian peasants dying in a failed foreign war.
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May 10, 2022 20:41
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:From what I recall when you convert the $132 billion gold marks to equivalent value today, it was roughly equivalent to the same amount that Germany forced France to pay at the end of the Franco-Prussian war (adjusted to today's value) and also enforced through military occupation. You can do a fascist check on people: if they think hyper inflation was caused inadvertently they are fash. If they realize the Germans did hyper inflation to stick it to the Brits you are not fash.
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May 10, 2022 20:42
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Apparently the Russians attempted to bridge a river to the west of Severodonetsk yesterday and got crushed by Ukranian artillery Could be 40+ destroyed Russian vehicles on the sunk pontoon bridges and staging area to the east https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1524101694732255232  aerial shots of lots of destroyed vehicles
Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:46 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 20:44
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:From what I recall when you convert the $132 billion gold marks to equivalent value today, it was roughly equivalent to the same amount that Germany forced France to pay at the end of the Franco-Prussian war (adjusted to today's value) and also enforced through military occupation. Yeah understanding Bismarck and the Franco-Prussian War is critical to understanding the First World War and the Treaty of Versailles.
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May 10, 2022 20:48
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https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1524110212403429376
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May 10, 2022 20:51
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Atreiden posted:No that's a reality you made up. Russia have wisely not threatened to use nukes if they don't get to occupy Ukraine. no but credible people do believe that they will use them if certain circumstances develop which would lead to the destruction of the Russian state - such as a direct military confrontation with the United States. It's up to you whether you want to believe a crushing defeat of the Russian military at the hands of Ukraine backed by NATO and the contemplated effects that could have on Russia's position in the world and locally in Eastern Europe would meet those conditions. I think quite frankly a large part of the reason that Russia is happy to broadcast that the use of nuclear weapons is not contemplated in Ukraine is that the situation is well developed enough by now that they can see that there is no other likely result than achieving their objectives - which I don't believe are necessarily the occupation of the entire Ukrainian nation.. I mean I don't even know why they would want to occupy eastern Ukraine where 90% of the population hated their guts from even before the invasion in 2014.
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May 10, 2022 20:52
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Rigel posted:It doesn't matter what we want. After the atrocities, Ukraine has made it absolutely crystal-clear that they will never agree to cede an inch of territory, including Crimea. And there is no way in hell that NATO is going to pressure Ukraine into giving up land for peace. As well they shouldn't. Any negotiated peace that cedes Crimea or Donbas to Russia just justifies Russia's invasion.
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May 10, 2022 20:54
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SolarFire2 posted:As well they shouldn't. Any negotiated peace that cedes Crimea or Donbas to Russia just justifies Russia's invasion. Right, and it continues the conflict by allowing a territorial conflict to persist. Ukraine is much safer resolving the invasion now rather than leaving behind occupied areas that Russia would use to justify another attack in the future.
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May 10, 2022 21:00
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FishBulbia posted:yes it will end by next sunday. (the week is in freedman units) It will end by "Friday," i.e., within 18 months. 
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May 10, 2022 21:01
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Starsfan posted:no but credible people do believe that they will use them if certain circumstances develop which would lead to the destruction of the Russian state - such as a direct military confrontation with the United States. It's up to you whether you want to believe a crushing defeat of the Russian military at the hands of Ukraine backed by NATO and the contemplated effects that could have on Russia's position in the world and locally in Eastern Europe would meet those conditions. Unfriendly populations in occupied territories is a problem that Russia seems to have found a solution for and it seems pretty final, so this does not seem to be an insurmountable obstacle.
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May 10, 2022 21:04
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Starsfan posted:no but credible people do believe that they will use them if certain circumstances develop which would lead to the destruction of the Russian state - such as a direct military confrontation with the United States. That's one hell of a move you have done here. Losing the war to Ukraine is far away from the destruction of the Russian state.
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May 10, 2022 21:05
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Starsfan posted:no but credible people do believe that they will use them if certain circumstances develop which would lead to the destruction of the Russian state - such as a direct military confrontation with the United States. It's up to you whether you want to believe a crushing defeat of the Russian military at the hands of Ukraine backed by NATO and the contemplated effects that could have on Russia's position in the world and locally in Eastern Europe would meet those conditions. Russia's statehood is not under threat. Ukraine pushing Russia back to their own borders is not an existential threat to Russia as a state and nobody, even Putin, is insane enough to believe it is. If a decline in Russia's standing in the world was enough to make Putin drop the bomb we'd have already been blasted into our own shadows. Half the world has been laughing at the Russian paper tiger since the first week of the war when the tyres fell off all their vehicles. Even if Russia did somehow crush Ukraine, nobody in NATO is going to be scared of them anymore because they've been a joke. Starsfan posted:I think quite frankly a large part of the reason that Russia is happy to broadcast that the use of nuclear weapons is not contemplated in Ukraine is that the situation is well developed enough by now that they can see that there is no other likely result than achieving their objectives - which I don't believe are necessarily the occupation of the entire Ukrainian nation.. I mean I don't even know why they would want to occupy eastern Ukraine where 90% of the population hated their guts from even before the invasion in 2014. Putin went into the war saying Ukraine wasn't even a real country. Whatever their objectives now, they're only their objectives now because they couldn't achieve the original objective, which was the total destruction of Ukrainian statehood. Unless their objective was to get humiliated in front of the world on their way to seizing slightly more of the Donbas than they already had, in which case, mission accomplished I guess?
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May 10, 2022 21:08
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Silver2195 posted:It will end by "Friday," i.e., within 18 months. Would you like to “officially” toxx on this?
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May 10, 2022 21:15
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Chalks posted:Apparently the Russians attempted to bridge a river to the west of Severodonetsk yesterday and got crushed by Ukranian artillery I believe AFU's reports for the day said something around 25 tanks and nearly 50 APCs were demolished that day. yes, 25 and 44, as per this one https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1523938127554953217
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May 10, 2022 21:17
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zone posted:I believe AFU's reports for the day said something around 25 tanks and nearly 50 APCs were demolished that day. Yikes, this has the feeling of a desperate last ditch effort by the Russians to make something happen. Will be really interesting to see how closely the visually verified losses matches this count since presumably both counts will be based on the same images.
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May 10, 2022 21:19
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Some gal in St. Petersburg, on May 9, began to loudly play audio about brutalities perpetrated by Russian troops in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/perm36_6/status/1524063929642766336 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:25 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 21:19
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Starsfan posted:A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon. We lost a war against our weaker neighbour and now look a bit naff doesn't equate to committing suicide by nuke. If a vast NATO army was on their border poised to invade then maybe, but they'd more likely try to hit the army with tactical nukes. Going full MAD would be reserved for the invading army smashing straight through their conventional defences. Probably.
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May 10, 2022 21:21
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Some dude in St. Petersburg, on May 9, began to loudly play audio about brutalities perpetrated by Russian troops in Ukraine. Is he alive?
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May 10, 2022 21:22
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Russian friend just sent me this Indian scam circulating.
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May 10, 2022 21:23
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SirTagz posted:Is he alive? I did misread, it was a woman. Probably alive yeah, I’m just dying from cop Spider-Man storming the balcony with helpful onlookers comments like “careful, there’s a huge dame”. Edit: Maybe to add context to how Russian cops work - you can get snow banks removed from your courtyard within hours, by merely spray painting “Putin sucks” on them. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:36 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 21:24
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Putin can genuinely believe that an independent/western-aligned Ukraine represents an existential threat to Russia and at the same time never actually reach the point where he pushed the 'end the world' button over it. People hold inconsistent beliefs all the time.
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May 10, 2022 21:27
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Starsfan posted:. What do you think Russia's objectives here are, that they are achieving
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May 10, 2022 21:34
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It's hard to think of anything that matters less than this, but Eurovision semifinals day 1 just ended and Ukraine probably had the best song (easily top 3, anyway). It's not a song about the war or even really nationalist, it's just sort of a bit of a folky rap jam. It's a little corny. Bookmakers have them the odds on favourite to win. There has been something of history of underlying cultural politics driving voting, so it's not... not related to the war. Russia is banned from competing this year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfm8hVNZt8g
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May 10, 2022 21:36
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Man Plan Canal posted:It's hard to think of anything that matters less than this, but Eurovision semifinals day 1 just ended and Ukraine probably had the best song (easily top 3, anyway). It's not a song about the war or even really nationalist, it's just sort of a bit of a folky rap jam. It's a little corny. Bookmakers have them the odds on favourite to win. There has been something of history of underlying cultural politics driving voting, so it's not... not related to the war. Russia is banned from competing this year. Ukrainians are naturally very melodic you see, you can tell by measuring their cranial dimensions
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May 10, 2022 21:39
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Man Plan Canal posted:It's hard to think of anything that matters less than this, but Eurovision semifinals day 1 just ended and Ukraine probably had the best song (easily top 3, anyway). It's not a song about the war or even really nationalist, it's just sort of a bit of a folky rap jam. It's a little corny. Bookmakers have them the odds on favourite to win. There has been something of history of underlying cultural politics driving voting, so it's not... not related to the war. Russia is banned from competing this year. Apparently the song has some nationalist stuff going on in it, but I got bored while someone was explaining it. They'll probably win, but so far Portugal are the best E: actually just watching Denmark and it's some riot-grrl pop with a decent solo so it's all up for grabs
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May 10, 2022 21:39
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You can tell Ukraine is winning because the scenarios that were once banished to Clancychat are now taking over the thread. It's already been covered by other posters, but yeah, right now the question seems to be how long Ukraine is willing to continue the war to its advantage, at the cost of more death and destruction that will primarily harm Ukraine. I don't think it's a question of whether Ukraine would or should accept a negotiated settlement so much as what that settlement would include - I'm pretty sure if Putin called up Zelensky and offered a complete Russian withdrawal from Donbas and Crimea in return for peace and an end to sanctions Zelensky would accept, and I don't see anyone arguing otherwise, so I don't know where this idea that the thread was arguing Ukraine shouldn't accept a settlement no matter what came from. That's not likely to happen, of course. I think the idea that the west might pressure Ukraine to accept a settlement on bad terms just to end the war/avoid pushing a potentially unstable Putin too far is realistic enough to worry about, though, even if not necessarily likely.
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May 10, 2022 21:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:What do you think Russia's objectives here are, that they are achieving I think that Russia believes if the conflict continues the way it is now Ukraine's ability to replace their casualties does not meet the baseline requirements of continuing the conflict. What Russia's true objectives are and whether the physical reality on the ground today matches those objectives are not necessarily related in this case.
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May 10, 2022 21:45
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But up to this point the basic rule has been that Russia lies. Nothing Russia has said up to this point has been supported by Russian actions. Russia openly, blatantly lies about literally everything. They commit to humanitarian corridors and then bomb them. Why should anyone believe a single word out of Russia's mouth? The only thing they respect is force. Push Russia back into its lovely crimestate and let them swelter in the horror of their own choices. I hope the decent Russians get out and the fuckwits get to live with the consequences of their own stupid racist choices.
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May 10, 2022 21:49
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I think it's the opposite: the question is how long Putin wants to continue the war. Ukrainians are going to keep fighting. They aren't going to run out of gear or supplies because they have American dumping all the javelins in the world into their hands. Politically the popular will to fight is there and is going to stay there because each new Russian atrocity breeds more Ukrainian anger. Zelensky couldn't stop them if he tried, the Ukrainians don't want peace, they want freedom and revenge, in either order. (Plus they don't have any alternative since surrendering just means Russia massacres you anyways. That's why the Mariupol defenders are fighting to the death, they know Russia will just kill and torture them if they surrender). So Ukraine has no real option to stop fighting, wants to fight anyway, and isn't going be limited by any lack of supplies. The only way this stops then is Putin deciding he wants to stop it and withdrawing his troops from Ukraine. Then at least Zelensky could try to persuade the Ukrainian military to stop and not invade Russia, and have a chance of getting them to listen.
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May 10, 2022 21:49
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:From what I recall when you convert the $132 billion gold marks to equivalent value today, it was roughly equivalent to the same amount that Germany forced France to pay at the end of the Franco-Prussian war (adjusted to today's value) and also enforced through military occupation. There were certainly hardships in Germany (and elsewhere), but what do you realistically expect in the aftermath of 60 million soldiers blowing up the continent for 4 years?
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May 10, 2022 21:50
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Man Plan Canal posted:It's hard to think of anything that matters less than this, but Eurovision semifinals day 1 just ended and Ukraine probably had the best song (easily top 3, anyway). It's not a song about the war or even really nationalist, it's just sort of a bit of a folky rap jam. It's a little corny. Bookmakers have them the odds on favourite to win. There has been something of history of underlying cultural politics driving voting, so it's not... not related to the war. Russia is banned from competing this year. I love the carpet man and his breakdancing moves
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May 10, 2022 21:50
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