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Morningwoodpecker posted:We lost a war against our weaker neighbour and now look a bit naff doesn't equate to committing suicide by nuke. If a vast NATO army was on their border poised to invade then maybe, but they'd more likely try to hit the army with tactical nukes. Going full MAD would be reserved for the invading army smashing straight through their conventional defences. I assume that the logic is that the West would automatically escalate to full scale nuclear war in response to tactical nukes that Russia would use in that scenario, although again Ukraine pushing Russia back to pre-invasion borders (let alone fighting Russia to a bloody stalemate in Donbas, which is what's currently happening) is still a million miles away from NATO invading Russia. Russia has laid out clear and reasonable red lines for their nukes and the US has made it abundantly clear that it has no intentions of getting anywhere close to them. Beyond that, the military outcome in Ukraine doesn't really matter; the whole point of having a big nuclear button is that it means conventional forces will never be an existential threat. Russia could pile up every soldier, gun, and tank in its arsenal and light them on fire for the whole world to see and Russia's territorial integrity would still be perfectly safe. Bremen posted:You can tell Ukraine is winning because the scenarios that were once banished to Clancychat are now taking over the thread. It depends on what "bad terms" means. Something resembling the prewar status quo would be pretty bad in most respects, but compared to getting artillery shells dropped on you it might seem like a good enough deal. That's for Ukraine alone to decide, though.
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May 10, 2022 21:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Would you like to “officially” toxx on this? Yes. The war will end (or at least be "re-frozen") before November 10, 2023.
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May 10, 2022 21:55
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Silver2195 posted:Yes. The war will end (or at least be "re-frozen") before November 10, 2023. Added to the OP.
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May 10, 2022 21:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Added to the OP. That makes two toxxes for this thread since I won my original one when I toxxed that an invasion would happen against someone who said it wouldn't. BTW, I never heard what happened about that. If possible can that person be unbanned, if they were? It feels kinda gross to have that "win" when people are dying and I happened to be right about my prediction based on my expertise. Can they donate to charity or something instead? I had forgotten all about it until just now
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May 10, 2022 22:23
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CeeJee posted:Telenko seems to fall into the well known trap of suddenly getting a big audience on your narrow field of expertise and then feeling the need to expand to other fields to provide the audience with new content. Ah, the Nate Silver Experience. Meiers Goldbrick posted:For the last 70+ days we have been shown the best way to counter it was with Javelin and tractor. Shameful Beyraktar erasure, buddy.
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May 10, 2022 22:29
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Moktaro posted:Ah, the Nate Silver Experience. Also known as ultracrepidarianism, one of the best words in English
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May 10, 2022 22:34
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HonorableTB posted:That makes two toxxes for this thread since I won my original one when I toxxed that an invasion would happen against someone who said it wouldn't. BTW, I never heard what happened about that. If possible can that person be unbanned, if they were? It feels kinda gross to have that "win" when people are dying and I happened to be right about my prediction based on my expertise. Can they donate to charity or something instead? I had forgotten all about it until just now You usually are not permabanned if you lose a toxx. That person can pay to unban their account.
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May 10, 2022 22:35
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the holy poopacy posted:I assume that the logic is that the West would automatically escalate to full scale nuclear war in response to tactical nukes that Russia would use in that scenario, although again Ukraine pushing Russia back to pre-invasion borders (let alone fighting Russia to a bloody stalemate in Donbas, which is what's currently happening) is still a million miles away from NATO invading Russia. Not quite, I think the Russians are a little more invested in smaller nukes than NATO and might use them as area denial or to hit a threatening build-up. I doubt NATO would escalate fully from that, I also doubt if it came to that that NATO would use blob formation to expose lots of assets at once. It would be an air war to clear the way. However I should probably have led by explaining I don't think it's a likely scenario at all outside of Russian propaganda and paranoia. the holy poopacy posted:Russia has laid out clear and reasonable red lines for their nukes and the US has made it abundantly clear that it has no intentions of getting anywhere close to them. Beyond that, the military outcome in Ukraine doesn't really matter; the whole point of having a big nuclear button is that it means conventional forces will never be an existential threat. Russia could pile up every soldier, gun, and tank in its arsenal and light them on fire for the whole world to see and Russia's territorial integrity would still be perfectly safe. True and the argument everyone who aspires to nukes rightly uses. If Ukraine had kept theirs we might not be in this position.
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May 10, 2022 22:38
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HonorableTB posted:That makes two toxxes for this thread since I won my original one when I toxxed that an invasion would happen against someone who said it wouldn't. BTW, I never heard what happened about that. If possible can that person be unbanned, if they were? It feels kinda gross to have that "win" when people are dying and I happened to be right about my prediction based on my expertise. Can they donate to charity or something instead? I had forgotten all about it until just now Checking the rap sheet of the other person, it looks like they've never been banned so the issue may be moot.
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May 10, 2022 22:43
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Failed Imagineer posted:Apparently the song has some nationalist stuff going on in it, but I got bored while someone was explaining it. It's just a song about motherhood, though.
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May 10, 2022 22:53
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If I remember correct, the agreement was they donated to a Ukrainian aid group in lieu.
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May 10, 2022 22:54
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Paladinus posted:It's just a song about motherhood, though. Impossible to know if motherhood could ever be used as a metaphor for nationhood
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May 10, 2022 22:57
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It's clearly about nationalism because it's region-locked against the US!
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May 10, 2022 23:00
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Russia certainly hasnt drawn clear red lines to regards on nuke usage and even suggested using them on anyone helping ukraine.
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May 10, 2022 23:03
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Failed Imagineer posted:Impossible to know if motherhood could ever be used as a metaphor for nationhood Not in every song about motherhood, no. Unless we accept that mom's spaghetti in Lose Yourself is a metaphor for American exceptionalism.
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May 10, 2022 23:03
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Morrow posted:The issue is that it's simultaneously true that Russia has put itself in an impossible situation, but it also has a giant rage quit button that theoretically ends the world. It means that at some point someone will have to bail them out so they don't press that button. No. This is hysterics. Russia is not going to use nuclear weapons, because the very existence of the Russian state rests on that decision. On top of all of the other reasons, like strong normative pressure, abidance to strategic doctrine, etc. Not to mention Putin would risk being shot by his own military if he issued an order to deploy nuclear weapons under these circumstances.
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May 10, 2022 23:05
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Paladinus posted:Not in every song about motherhood, no. Unless we accept that mom's spaghetti in Lose Yourself is a metaphor for American exceptionalism. I'm certainly open to that possibility
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May 10, 2022 23:07
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Morrow posted:The issue is that it's simultaneously true that Russia has put itself in an impossible situation, but it also has a giant rage quit button that theoretically ends the world. It means that at some point someone will have to bail them out so they don't press that button. If Putin is such a master of subterfuge and messaging I’m sure he can figure out a way to take an L without annihilating the planet.
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May 10, 2022 23:08
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Paladinus posted:Not in every song about motherhood, no. Unless we accept that mom's spaghetti in Lose Yourself is a metaphor for American exceptionalism. mom's spaghatti is a reverence to the loss of catholic values among italian americans
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May 10, 2022 23:09
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Despera posted:Russia certainly hasnt drawn clear red lines to regards on nuke usage and even suggested using them on anyone helping ukraine. And yet people are helping Ukraine and the world has not ended Decoupling banks from SWIFT was an "act of war" according to Putin, we did it and jack poo poo happened. The faster we all collectively understand that Putin is full of poo poo because the nuke card is the only card he has left, the better. We shouldn't invade Russia but all this hemming and hawing about whether or not to "humiliate" Russia by pointing out war crimes and lend-leasing arms to a country that is undergoing an unprovoked, illegal war of annexation / genocide is basically the entire point of the nuke waving
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May 10, 2022 23:16
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah I'm sure an industry with a long history of exploiting crisis for their own gain wouldn't do so this time. Don't know what you are trying to argue here. seems pretty on-point 
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May 10, 2022 23:23
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Deltasquid posted:And yet people are helping Ukraine and the world has not ended Im just saying why would he make rules to constrain himself and make the west fear him less?
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May 10, 2022 23:23
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Looks like the Russians are clearing their garbage off of Snake island - or at least clearing the dock. Preparing to take another swing at it? https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1524117716340146178?t=4c2JwWfPaw_zXH7xW0A7Bg&s=19 https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1524117733914382339?t=x0IcoOjeeZcMSTj3h1wL-g&s=19 I doubt it will end well if so 
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May 10, 2022 23:28
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Eletriarnation posted:Checking the rap sheet of the other person, it looks like they've never been banned so the issue may be moot. Thank you for checking, that makes me feel better.
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May 10, 2022 23:47
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Alchenar posted:Ukrainians are naturally very melodic you see, you can tell by measuring their cranial dimensions
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May 10, 2022 23:53
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mobby_6kl posted:I missed this chat the last time but FWIIW, (some) Ukrainians say this about their own language. Like that it's one of the most melodic second only to Italian, IIRC. How you can quantify this I don't know, but it's not necessarily some sort of racist thing. I am a Russian speaker and I can maybe understand 3 out of 5 Ukrainian words, 4/5 if I strain hard while listening. To me, the Ukrainian language does sound melodic when I am listening to them speak, and I can understand about 60-75% of what they say. It does sound sing-song to me, I love hearing it but it is frustrating to me as a Russian-as-foreign-language speaker.
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May 11, 2022 00:08
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Despera posted:Im just saying why would he make rules to constrain himself and make the west fear him less? The nuclear threats are an attempt to make the west fear him. He did it too quickly and too often though. He's bluffing.......probably.
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May 11, 2022 00:09
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HonorableTB posted:I am a Russian speaker and I can maybe understand 3 out of 5 Ukrainian words, 4/5 if I strain hard while listening. To me, the Ukrainian language does sound melodic when I am listening to them speak, and I can understand about 60-75% of what they say. It does sound sing-song to me, I love hearing it but it is frustrating to me as a Russian-as-foreign-language speaker. the impression I'm getting is that Ukrainian is Russian Scottish
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May 11, 2022 00:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:the impression I'm getting is that Ukrainian is Russian Scottish Not really. At best I would agree that roughly half of the words are similar-ish, as a native Russian speaker. Grammar is really similar though, so it’s not too difficult to fill in the blanks when you’re reading Ukrainian. And even then, we’ve seen utter clown poo poo like Russian propaganda crew picking up Polish gear and “explaining” to the audience that it’s Ukrainian written in Latin by NATO’s presumably impoverished or underdeveloped typographers.
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May 11, 2022 00:42
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RU navy intercept https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPAFmPH7a6M https://mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524126494137757698 code:https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1524163737938190337 Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 01:32 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 01:06
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Is Ukraine still winning or are we in some kind of statement? I'm seeing that Russia has nearly taken Donbas.
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May 11, 2022 01:25
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https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1524183139303628801
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May 11, 2022 01:28
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you can only keep what you can hold
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May 11, 2022 01:28
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Is Ukraine still winning or are we in some kind of statement? I'm seeing that Russia has nearly taken Donbas. Russia pulled back a lot around Kharkhiv and is advancing at a snails pace in Donbass. Ukraine is still holding on but hasn't won.
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May 11, 2022 01:29
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Starsfan posted:A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon. Whole lotta unhinged nukeposting lately.
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May 11, 2022 01:29
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did something new happen or are they talking about this https://twitter.com/Techmeme/status/1524005437732888576
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May 11, 2022 01:32
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Old news, months old
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May 11, 2022 01:33
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That account is, at best, some sort of financial news aggregate.
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May 11, 2022 01:40
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This is several months old and that account is sketchy as hell.
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May 11, 2022 01:44
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ummel posted:That account is, at best, some sort of financial news aggregate. One without a great filter too, seeing as it picks up the most tabloid tier news.
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