Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
EugeneDebsWasCool
Nov 10, 2017
Buglord

FishBulbia posted:

Yup. Having one word for blue doesn't mean English speakers can't see the difference between light and dark blue.

having both "angst" and "despair" in the language doesn't mean that both can be used to describe one feeling.

Language may play a slight role in how you brain categorizes things, but its a very slight one. If we only had "despair" you'd still be able to feel "angst"

I almost used the blue example as well. It's not that cultures that don't have a word for blue don't actually see the color blue. They have the same cones and rods we do. It's just that they may not have a word for it because they don't differentiate it from being a shade of another color (usually green.)

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

selec
Sep 6, 2003

EugeneDebsWasCool posted:

I almost used the blue example as well. It's not that cultures that don't have a word for blue don't actually see the color blue. They have the same cones and rods we do. It's just that they may not have a word for it because they don't differentiate it from being a shade of another color (usually green.)

This is a great example. The small L liberal worldview, which whether we like to admit or not we labor under, shows us a homeless person, who most people perceive as a threat, a moral to a story, rather than a fellow human who is suffering and in need of help from the society they both live in.

But if you approach politics as they exist in America trying to think that way, you get pushback from both Democrats and Republicans. You find you really can’t convince them to not means test for whether or not someone in need is the Devil’s Poor.

They don’t see the fellow human, it’s because they don’t differentiate from another kind of abstraction (usually A Problem).

Tnega
Oct 26, 2010

Pillbug
Have some palingenetic ultranationalism, as a treat.

quote:

Over a year of doing research, Riccardi-Swartz learned that many of these converts had grown disillusioned with social and demographic change in the United States. In ROCOR, they felt they had found a church that has remained the same, regardless of place, time and politics. But Riccardi-Swartz also found strong strains of nativism, white nationalism and pro-authoritarianism, evidenced by strong admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

If the rest of the world were not so utterly poo poo, Republicans unironically doing the Hopek would be funny.

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
https://twitter.com/eleanor_mueller/status/1524186915737640960?s=20&t=_k7MpBWdFAlLy5zJXJhojQ

BRJurgis
Aug 15, 2007

Well I hear the thunder roll, I feel the cold winds blowing...
But you won't find me there, 'cause I won't go back again...
While you're on smoky roads, I'll be out in the sun...
Where the trees still grow, where they count by one...
Our way of life, what our parents and schools teach us, the media we consume and commercials we hear, the messaging from our leaders, and the discourse with most of our peers... it's captured. That's why so many informed passionate people are gaslit IRL and on this very forum. That's how I'm interpreting selec's point (which in discussion became a bit over focused).

Human nature and ability to process challenging information and change perspective, political and economic self interest individually or systemically, loving illuminati shadow cabals, whatever. Go talk to everybody you know about climate change or electoralism to feel it for yourself.

So many people cannot even conceive of something different nevermind better. They can't or won't engage with it even in the face of data and compelling arguments, even when the collapse is falling on them. This just HAS TO BE right, because otherwise I'm wrong and scared and imperiled.

I'm not opposed to society as a concept at all, but the one we've built (and basically global capitalism) has supplanted nature and evolution. Large swathes of people in our "democracy" are robbed of the strength independence and imagination to manifest a better world. It is a prophecy of doom.

You don't have to pin all of my ramblings on selec's message but I think and hope it makes it clearer.

PeterCat
Apr 8, 2020

Believe women.


What if the staffers just formed a union and told the Congress to deal with it?

PeterCat
Apr 8, 2020

Believe women.

Jaxyon posted:

LOL

They're also racist against Mexicans. Nobody's mad at the Irish or Canadians for taking their jobs.

Who they should be mad at, is the person responsible for them losing their jobs. The racism is easier, though.

Nobody from China ever took a job. Or Mexico.

May I educate you on the history of meat packing in Sioux City, Iowa?

In 1980 the meat packers union struck IBP. IBP responded by locking out the union, shipping in Mexicans to work in the plants, and putting them up in a shanty till they broke the union.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

EugeneDebsWasCool posted:

I almost used the blue example as well. It's not that cultures that don't have a word for blue don't actually see the color blue. They have the same cones and rods we do. It's just that they may not have a word for it because they don't differentiate it from being a shade of another color (usually green.)

Wait weren't there literally studies done that showed people from different cultures had an easier time recalling the difference between different groups of colors?

PeterCat
Apr 8, 2020

Believe women.

But let's put it this way. Workers in the US recognize they're getting screwed. People ITT react with, "well the workers ought to hand the factory owners, that'll solve things!"

Or the workers find a politician who speaks to their interests and votes for that politician. It's not out of racial animus but out of self-preservation. They're using the governmental apparatus to further their interests. Imagine if the democratic party offered such a thing.

And as far as tariffs go, it amazes me that people who should otherwise know better don't understand how they work. The point of them is to cause companies to have to raise prices that the savings of cheap overseas labor are mitigated and it encourages the companies to bring the manufacturing back to the US. They do work, look at the sugar industry, or how they helped out Harley Davidson in the 80s.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

A big flaming stink posted:

Wait weren't there literally studies done that showed people from different cultures had an easier time recalling the difference between different groups of colors?

Sapir-Whorf is true in the lightest application. You could even say some words rhyming in one language associates them for a native speaker -- sure. And it creates new mental categories sometimes.

A fundamental and intrinsically human method of cognitive processing shapes all human language, language doesn't shape processing.

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna
Isn't PeterCat still threadbanned?

Mischievous Mink
May 29, 2012

Bottom Liner posted:

Isn't PeterCat still threadbanned?

No, he was officially un-banned a couple of days ago or so-ish.

GoutPatrol
Oct 17, 2009

*Stupid Babby*

They have been unbanned.

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008
You can tell it's appropriate for them to be let back in the thread because, while the only posts made so far are stupid disingenuous bullshit, it's been several posts since they celebrated a cop kneeling on a child's neck. They've since cleaned up their act, and now they simply threadshit and accuse defund the police rhetoric of directly leading to the recent spike in homicides and leave when it's pointed out how loving stupid that is

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1524225434354733057?s=20&t=lz-vFa97DeiN3CzuHSbQWA

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1524230187197648898?s=20&t=_5rj-VO7hvavvlisFxowsg

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Lol what a herbster

GoutPatrol
Oct 17, 2009

*Stupid Babby*

Herbster fully loaded

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

PeterCat posted:

May I educate you on the history of meat packing in Sioux City, Iowa?

In 1980 the meat packers union struck IBP. IBP responded by locking out the union, shipping in Mexicans to work in the plants, and putting them up in a shanty till they broke the union.
But we shouldn't worry how much the boss man makes or wonder why he shipped in scabs right

PeterCat posted:

But let's put it this way. Workers in the US recognize they're getting screwed. People ITT react with, "well the workers ought to hand the factory owners, that'll solve things!"

Or the workers find a politician who speaks to their interests and votes for that politician. It's not out of racial animus but out of self-preservation. They're using the governmental apparatus to further their interests.

Oh word, so did Trump scrap NAFTA then? End permanent normal trade relations with China? Brought all the jobs back? Furthered worker interests instead of factory owner profits?

quote:

Imagine of the Democratic Party offered such a thing
Now this is correct, and that's the rub, there is no major political party in the USA that furthers worker interests

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 13:33 on May 11, 2022

Nucleic Acids
Apr 10, 2007

Willa Rogers posted:

Grassley released his report on Garcetti & his sexually harassing bff, Rick Jacobs, and it looks like Biden's gonna have to find a new ambassador to India.

From the LAT write-up:

He might lose out on that plumb ambassadorship, but hey, Rahm Emmanuel is in Tokyo right now.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Inflation number dropped.
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1524366507144228864?t=89yE_CklEC1EG8Cceq4W7w&s=19
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1524366485505855488?t=FVDAaknkSx0UeggIdGAukw&s=19
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

While it is lower than the march "peak" that is deceiving. Looking st the breakdowns you can see energy prices and used car prices did drag down the inflation rate so this report was not catastrophic. That is the good news.

Bad news. Food, shelter,, and new cars are running hotter than expected. Food is projected to keep going higher. Shelter shouldn't peak until july/august/september. New cars should keep climbing higher due to supply chain issues.

High inflation is embedded and persistent. Tomorrow's PPI will most likely confirm this. May inflation numbers may end up going higher than the March "peak" due to energy costs skyrocketing in may. Plus the China lockdown supply shocks are still working its way through the system.

Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 14:10 on May 11, 2022

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

PeterCat posted:

What if the staffers just formed a union and told the Congress to deal with it?

They technically could, but their pay structure was set by law and the office of their Representative, their benefits were set by law, and they were managed by OMB and the Congressional Management Organization.

So, they could be "in a union," but couldn't sign a contract or negotiate any form of compensation. This change lets them sign a contract as a group.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

PeterCat posted:

But let's put it this way. Workers in the US recognize they're getting screwed. People ITT react with, "well the workers ought to hand the factory owners, that'll solve things!"

Or the workers find a politician who speaks to their interests and votes for that politician. It's not out of racial animus but out of self-preservation. They're using the governmental apparatus to further their interests. Imagine if the democratic party offered such a thing.

And as far as tariffs go, it amazes me that people who should otherwise know better don't understand how they work. The point of them is to cause companies to have to raise prices that the savings of cheap overseas labor are mitigated and it encourages the companies to bring the manufacturing back to the US. They do work, look at the sugar industry, or how they helped out Harley Davidson in the 80s.

1) It can be both pre-existing racial animus and self-preservation.

2) Nobody is disputing that tariffs work. That is why they are a big deal. People dispute the use of tariffs for no reason except to "keep jobs in Ohio" because it makes prices higher for everyone else in the country, hurts the overseas economies (but, nobody really cares about this aspect), and may or may not actually keep the jobs.

The dispute is "is it worth hurting every other industry and consumer in the country (plus some out of the country) to keep a steel plant in Ohio open?" Obviously, the steel industry and workers there say yes. Most other people have no knowledge/don't care or would oppose raising prices for that purpose.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Schumer somehow coming out with the best take of any elected Democrat.

https://twitter.com/mmcauliff/status/1524098613852389377

A bunch of people who served on the Board of Pardons with Fetterman came out to say what a jerk he was and how bad of a job he did, but accidentally make him sound awesome.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1524375839550414848

quote:

John Fetterman ran the Board of Pardons like an activist — and at times a bully

John Fetterman was a year into his leadership of Pennsylvania’s Board of Pardons when the panel held a hearing that infuriated him.

Fetterman, who leads the board as lieutenant governor, believed many of the 14 people serving life sentences in state prisons at the time deserved early release. But the group, which has to agree unanimously, approved recommendations for only two commutations in the December 2019 hearing.

So Fetterman went to the only other elected official on the five-member board, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who had voted against many of the cases.

And he came armed with a political threat.

Fetterman, according to several people with direct knowledge of the conversation, said he would run against Shapiro in the 2022 Democratic primary for governor unless more of the cases cleared the board. In particular, he wanted clemency for Lee and Dennis Horton, brothers from Philadelphia who for 27 years maintained they were innocent of murder.

Eight months later, the Horton brothers were granted a new hearing, and in December 2020, the board unanimously recommended freeing them. Gov. Tom Wolf signed off in February 2021, the same month Fetterman launched his campaign for U.S. Senate.

Shapiro, who said his votes had nothing to do with politics, announced his long-expected run for governor in October 2021. He’s running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Those who work with Fetterman say he runs the Board of Pardons — one of his only official duties — with the heart of an activist and, at times, the force of a bully. As he closes in on a likely win in the May 17 Democratic primary, his leadership there offers a lens into his political style: direct, unabashed, with a stubbornness that has earned him both admiration and criticism.

By generating attention for the board and driving reforms there he’s significantly increased the number of people leaving with pardons or commutations. But his style also reflects Fetterman’s tendency to go it alone or react sharply when people disagree with him — at times turning people off.

Fetterman wouldn’t comment on any private conversations with Shapiro. In 2020, before the Horton brothers were released, Fetterman said that “the trajectory of my career in public service will be determined by their freedom or lack thereof.”

Shapiro’s spokesperson Jacklin Rhoads said Shapiro denies the conversation ever happened, and that the claim is “nothing short of outrageous.” She called questions about whether the attorney general changed his vote because of political pressure “distasteful.” Shapiro asked the board to hold the Hortons’ case so it could interview them separately and review information missing from their files, she said.

‘That, to me, means everything’

At a campaign stop in Yardley last month, Fetterman told supporters that he ran for lieutenant governor in 2018, a job with limited powers, specifically to lead the Board of Pardons.

“You have an opportunity to really make a big impact on second chances,” he said. “That, to me, means everything. You have an opportunity to decide what direction we take in our society. Should you pay for the rest of your life for a mistake that you made if you were addicted or you were young, or you were in poverty?”

Pennsylvania is home to the second-largest population of prisoners serving life sentences without parole. The board can recommend commutations — reductions in prison sentences — as well as pardons, which are granted to people who are no longer incarcerated. Recommendations go to the governor, who has ultimate approval.

“I consider life without parole the death penalty,” Fetterman said in an interview. “Some people would even prefer a lethal injection to spending 60 years in prison, and we have people on that track.”

Fetterman’s approach is a stark departure from previous lieutenant governors. He toured the state’s 24 prisons to encourage people to apply for clemency. And he’s pushed the board to reach beyond its traditional role of granting mercy to those already sentenced, and to step in where courts have been slow to free those who maintain they were wrongly convicted.

“He clearly is not shy about saying what he thinks, so I think his passion is genuine and can be good,” said Nilam Sanghvi, legal director at the Pennsylvania Innocence Project. “Because without that passion, the board probably would have just kept doing what it was doing for so many years.”

Commutations of life sentences in Pennsylvania began to fall out of favor more than 40 years ago, with the 1978 election of tough-on-crime Republican Gov. Dick Thornburgh. They all but stopped after Reginald McFadden, a convicted murderer, was freed in 1994 and then killed a man and raped and murdered two women in New York shortly after.

The case sank the political aspirations of then-Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, a Democrat who had voted for McFadden’s release. It led to tighter restrictions around clemency — including requiring a unanimous board vote, not just a majority, to recommend early release.

But under Fetterman, pardons and commutations have multiplied.

In the four years he’s chaired the board, it has recommended 46 commutations of life sentences. That’s compared with just six in Wolf’s first term, none under former Republican Gov. Tom Corbett’s one term, and only five during former Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell’s eight years in office.

Pardon recommendations, meanwhile, increased 55% over the last four years compared with Wolf’s first term, 155% over Corbett’s term, and 118% over Rendell’s second term.

Fetterman came into office as the United States was rethinking life imprisonment. His predecessor, Lt. Gov. Mike Stack, had begun implementing some of the reforms Fetterman would continue. A 2012 Supreme Court ruling ended mandatory life without parole for juveniles, and a 2016 decision made it retroactive, setting Pennsylvania’s juvenile lifers on track for resentencing, and their families were organizing.

Sean Damon, organizing director of the Amistad Law Project, which works to abolish long sentences, called Fetterman “politically brave.”

“Because he believed, in principle, that people who have turned around their lives in decades ought to get a second look and a second chance,” Damon said. “He did work to crack the door open at the board, and let hope back into the process.”

Pennsylvania still commutes sentences at an incredibly low rate relative to the number of prisoners in the system. And commutations are nowhere near the level in the 1970s when only a majority vote was required and Democratic Gov. Milton Shapp granted 271 pardons over eight years.

“There’s no doubt that given the tight guardrails, he’s been effective in moving commutations and pardons into a modern direction,” Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said of Fetterman. “It’s where the people have been for some time, but it’s not necessarily where the politicians ... have been.”

The clemency process can take years.

The vast majority of people seeking commutations are serving life without parole. Each applicant sits for a merit review, in which the board decides whether to grant a public hearing.

Fetterman and Marsha Grayson, an attorney and the victims’ rights representative on the board, have voted for the most commutations over the last four years.

Grayson declined an interview. Board members Harris Gubernick, a corrections expert, and John Williams, a psychiatrist, did not respond to interview requests.

Shapiro said through a spokesperson that Fetterman “has placed a spirited focus on raising the number of applications for pardons and clemency.”

In last month’s board meeting, Shapiro and Fetterman voted for eight of 14 commutation recommendations, and the seven that got unanimous support went to Wolf. The board recommended 122 pardons.

Clemency advocates breathed a sigh of relief after worrying that few applications would advance in an election year. While there’s almost zero recidivism among lifers released from prison, voting for release can still be politically fraught.

Among those granted clemency was Gary Kyles, convicted at 18 of killing a man during a 1979 robbery when his gun accidentally went off during a tussle in a car.

“We want to do anything we can to get him released,” the victim’s sister, Jean Mayes, told the board during the Zoom hearing. “It was my mother’s dying wish to see him home and we have always prayed for his mother because two mothers lost a son that day.”

“Thank you for your profound compassion and mercy,” Fetterman said.

‘He was trying to bully me’

Fetterman is vocal about what he considers a broken system, sometimes getting animated at hearings that aren’t going his way.

In one instance last year, Bucks County District Attorney Matt Weintraub appeared before the board to oppose the application of John Brookins, a local man convicted of killing a woman in 1990. Usually people who seek commutations plead forgiveness and highlight years of redemptive behavior while incarcerated. Brookins asked for mercy while maintaining his innocence.

Fetterman repeatedly pressed Weintraub on why he wouldn’t test for Brookins’ DNA. The board traditionally hasn’t been a forum to debate someone’s guilt or innocence.

“It seemed that he was co-opting the pardons process in an attempt to relitigate the verdict,” Weintraub said. “He was trying to bully me in an extracurricular proceeding.”

Weintraub, a Republican, said it struck him as “demagoguery.”

“If this is a microcosm of how he would be on a much larger stage, then there would never be any consensus with him unless he’s getting his way. … Sometimes we need muckrakers and people to shake up the status quo,” Weintraub said. “But I still think there’s a way to do that in a dignified, professional, and courteous manner.”

Fetterman acknowledged his frustration that day but also said he still wants to see DNA testing in the case.

“I would have a beer with him right now and give him a hug if he’d just get that test done,” he said. “It keeps me up at night that John Brookins sits in prison.”

Fetterman, the lone yes vote on Brookins’ clemency application, keeps in touch with Brookins’ wife.

‘You get more bees with honey’

Some question whether Fetterman could achieve more with a softer approach.

“You get more bees with honey,” said Stack, Fetterman’s predecessor. “I found if you tried to be tough or rough or call people out, it would sort of flip them in a different direction where you could never persuade them. You could lose a battle here or there because you wanna win the war.”

Sanghvi, of the Innocence Project, said that while Fetterman “100% deserves credit for lifers being given serious consideration for commutation … there’s nuance as to how effective things have been and whether there are things, leadership-wise, that could have made this enterprise more effective.”

Others say the results speak for themselves and credit Fetterman with building unanimous support in so many cases, even if he wasn’t always diplomatic.

“Would he have gotten more people out? I don’t buy it,” said Damon, of the Amistad Law Project. “It takes polarizing people to move things. I doubt the ‘get-along-to-go-along’ would have resulted in many people going home. His big personality and willingness to bring the conversation into public view did create some public pressure.”

Brandon Flood, who received clemency in 2010, became board secretary in 2019. Flood left the board last year after his relationship with Fetterman soured, but he credits Fetterman with hiring people like him who had actually gone through the process.

Where Flood faults Fetterman is in his ability to build political relationships — long an important part of working effectively in the U.S. Senate. Fetterman didn’t like having to personally lobby state lawmakers over the board’s budget, Flood said.

“He doesn’t really have too many relationships with lawmakers,” Flood said. “And at the end of the day, if I’m looking for appropriation from the General Assembly, yeah, I can go make my own appeal, but it has a different impact when it comes from the lieutenant governor.”

He also largely avoided talking to legislators about policies he publicly supported that could lead to more systemic changes, Flood said.

Fetterman rejects the idea that building better relationships in the Republican-controlled General Assembly would have led to meaningful legislation.

“The changes that I wanted to ultimately have, I discovered quickly, they weren’t going to really go anywhere by meeting with people,” he said. “So I just think it’s a function of Harrisburg dysfunction. I don’t think that was ultimately going to be fruitful. It was about getting as many pardons and as many deserving or innocent people out as I possibly could.”

‘This man saved our lives’

It’s not often that someone campaigning for a politician goes so far as to say he saved their lives. But that’s what Lee and Dennis Horton tell crowds at Fetterman’s events.

After their initial December 2019 hearing, the Horton brothers were resigned to dying in prison. They say Fetterman’s advocacy got them out.

“When we got denied … he turned to my family, my sister, and said, ‘Look, I’m gonna do everything in my power to make sure these men get returned to their families, because that’s where they should be,’” Dennis Horton told a crowd of Fetterman supporters in Yardley last month.

“And he did. And there’s something to be said about what people do in the dark as opposed to what they do in the light. … He did it when nobody was looking, when nobody else cared. … This man saved our lives.”

The brothers, who picked up a man in 1993 unaware he had just committed a robbery and murder, were convicted of second-degree murder, which carried an automatic life sentence.

Lee was 27 at the time, a husband and father of four. Dennis was 23 and engaged to be married. They spent 27 years behind bars, maintaining their innocence, counseling fellow inmates, organizing restorative justice programs, and teaching yoga. The man who confessed to the murders was released in 2008.

Today, the brothers are paid Philadelphia field organizers for Fetterman’s campaign and travel with him around the state. People ask questions about their case and take photos with them. Some just want to apologize for their years behind bars.

Fetterman, who has faced persistent questions about a 2013 incident in which he pulled a shotgun on a Black jogger he wrongly suspected of a shooting, points to his time on the Board of Pardons as one example of how he has advocated for the Black community — a majority of the 5,400 lifers are Black men.

He’s received mixed reactions to characterizing clemency as work he’s done for Black Pennsylvanians.

And there are limits to what the Board of Pardons can do. By choosing to push boundaries, he’s helped individuals, dramatically changing their lives, but the system as a whole remains unchanged.

“Reform of the criminal justice system will disproportionately impact Black Americans in this country, but I don’t necessarily know if that’s a place where he can hang his hat,” said Mustafa Rashed, a Democratic consultant unaligned in the primary. “This is not a sweeping reform. … He’s helped 45 people as a function of his job.”

Fetterman’s support for clemency could become a target for Republicans in the general election, particularly if crime stays near the forefront of voters’ minds amid soaring gun violence in Philadelphia and other big cities.

He shrugs off the political implications.

“I know [attack ads] will come if I’m the nominee,” he said. ”But … to be worried about those ads is to say, ‘I’ll let you die in prison because of my own political insecurity,’ and that is disqualifying for an elected official.”

He added, “I said this to Lee and Dennis [Horton]: ‘Whatever this may or may not cost my career, me politically, we’re gonna get you out.’”

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:


The dispute is "is it worth hurting every other industry and consumer in the country (plus some out of the country) to keep a steel plant in Ohio open?" Obviously, the steel industry and workers there say yes. Most other people have no knowledge/don't care or would oppose raising prices for that purpose.

That sounds good, low prices for me, until you realize that this argument doesn't just apply to a single steel plant in Ohio, it applies to everyone who has a job manufacturing anything which can be moved overseas and ship product back in container ships. And everyone who has a job serving towns that are dependent on a manufacturing economy. Cheap iron homewares at Wal Mart aren't actually a benefit if you have no job and can't afford homewares or a home.

Of course if you have a job that can't move and that doesn't depend on a manufacturing economy, like a cushy government job with a retirement plan that doesn't exist for private sector workers anymore then yeah it's a no brainer, cheap poo poo at Walmart is well worth immiserating millions of fellow Americans in poverty.

The benefit to workers in other countries is questionable since the corporate profits come from running abusive sweatshops, and the worse the conditions the better for the bottom line so the flip side of those 'great' sweatshop jobs is companies pouring the profits back into corrupt governments to crack down on their workers and beat them in the streets for organizing, and of course we all have to pay for a major bloated military to coup those governments if the people don't vote for corrupt American stooges.

So it's not really "benefit everyone in the world or benefit one steel plant in Ohio" like you are saying

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 14:41 on May 11, 2022

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Decent breakdown thread of why inflation will stay high at a potential plateau or leg higher. He even notes how used cars are outweighted.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1524372655301963776?t=YViKcoKtFKbzrhfS_av6aw&s=19

I can not stress enough either how bad this inflation report was. The only good news is it didn't surpass March. All 67 inflation expectations were wrong.

The federal reserve will be forcing a recession to curb some of this, but how much demand destruction and wage destruction will be required to bring inflation back down.

Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 14:49 on May 11, 2022

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

VitalSigns posted:

That sounds good, low prices for me, until you realize that this argument doesn't just apply to a single steel plant in Ohio, it applies to everyone who has a job manufacturing anything which can be moved overseas and ship product back in container ships. And everyone who has a job serving towns that are dependent on a manufacturing economy. Cheap iron homewares at Wal Mart aren't actually a benefit if you have no job and can't afford homewares or a home.

Of course if you have a job that can't move and that doesn't depend on a manufacturing economy, like a cushy government job with a retirement plan that doesn't exist for private sector workers anymore then yeah it's a no brainer, cheap poo poo at Walmart is well worth immiserating millions of fellow Americans in poverty.

The benefit to workers in other countries is questionable since the corporate profits come from running abusive sweatshops, and the worse the conditions the better for the bottom line so the flip side of those 'great' sweatshop jobs is companies pouring the profits back into corrupt governments to crack down on their workers and beat them in the streets for organizing, and of course we all have to pay for a major bloated military to coup those governments if the people don't vote for corrupt American stooges

Automation already reduced many of the manual factory jobs starting in the 60's and increased production at the same time.

88% of lost manufacturing jobs were the result of automation/productivity changes in the last 22 years. The total amount of manufacturing jobs lost from the all-time high in the 40's is about 6 million. That's not a ton of jobs spread out over 80 years. The significance of factory workers is that they are geographically concentrated in politically important areas (Ohio, PA, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, etc.) and very specific industries (widgets, steel, raw materials, etc.)

https://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf

It's the same argument for protecting the coal industry. Tariffs aren't the reason that many manufacturers don't move overseas or reduce staff. For most products, it doesn't make sense to ship them when they can be made near the distribution point.

Instead of spending millions directly and costing 99% of the population indirectly, you could use that money to just have a more reasonable safety net or invest in other types of manufacturing. Otherwise, you are going to have to require higher and higher tariffs and costs on society to support an ever smaller portion of the population for no reason other than we fetishize factory workers, miners, and farmers.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
It's not like we are going to be able to afford to ship this stuff all over the planet forever. Better to keep these plants open and prepare for autarky now

Thom12255
Feb 23, 2013
WHERE THE FUCK IS MY MONEY
Eric Adams continues to say things.

https://twitter.com/BudrykZack/status/1524387812073775104

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Instead of spending millions directly and costing 99% of the population indirectly, you could use that money to just have a more reasonable safety net or invest in other types of manufacturing. Otherwise, you are going to have to require higher and higher tariffs and costs on society to support an ever smaller portion of the population for no reason other than we fetishize factory workers, miners, and farmers.
Agreed, but yet under capitalism, labor-saving automation further immiserates the workers because the surpluses are scooped up by the bourgeosie. We could do what you are saying here, but the interests of those in power will always prevent it.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Mr Hootington posted:

Decent breakdown thread of why inflation will stay high at a potential plateau or leg higher. He even notes how used cars are outweighted.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1524372655301963776?t=YViKcoKtFKbzrhfS_av6aw&s=19

I can not stress enough either how bad this inflation report was. The only good news is it didn't surpass March. All 67 inflation expectations were wrong.

The federal reserve will be forcing a recession to curb some of this, but how much demand destruction and wage destruction will be required to bring inflation back down.

Do you have information on the sectors driving the inflation in services? (One that I've seen happen is in home health care, especially post-covid.) Is it due to labor shortages and thus rising wages, or something else?

This caught my eye too:

https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1524372683701510147

because that appears to be both fairly catastrophic and counter to the messages that administration sycophants are propagating.

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.

Remember that part in the bible when the mouse falls into a bucket of cream and churns it into butter by running real fast so he can climb out?

The lesson is if you work hard enough you can overcome anything.

I think it was in the Book of Matthew.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

It's been almost two weeks since Eric Adams did something crazy, so he's got to make up for lost time.

He also went to co-commentate at the Yankees game last night and spent 10 minutes talking about how ghosts are real, they haunt the Mayoral residence, and nobody will believe him that they roam the halls at night and he has seen them.

https://twitter.com/winsjuliet/status/1524175589720088578
https://twitter.com/bobhardt/status/1524175947716567042

This tweet about Eric Adams from 2021 will always be accurate; no matter when you read it.

https://twitter.com/Lubchansky/status/1407665504236548098

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:28 on May 11, 2022

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Willa Rogers posted:

Do you have information on the sectors driving the inflation in services? (One that I've seen happen is in home health care, especially post-covid.) Is it due to labor shortages and thus rising wages, or something else?

This caught my eye too:

https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1524372683701510147

because that appears to be both fairly catastrophic and counter to the messages that administration sycophants are propagating.

Services is a tidal wave of demand shifting from goods into that sector. There is also services having to cover costs from goods rising.

Wages are not adding as much to inflation as everyone is being lead to believe. Blackrock agrees with that.

The labor shortage may not even be real. There is ancedotal evidence that many of the job listings are for the same job but posted in each state. This is causing the number of "openings" to be inflated.

I heard a good term yesterday that what is happening is a "profit-price spiral". An interesting thought.

Wages have been dropping since the beginning of the year. I think December had negative real growth too. It is absolutely catastrophic for the bottom of this country.

At this point we will be getting a recession whether on its own or forced by the fed. How severe is what you should be asking.
Hell yesterday and today biden essentially called for the fed to do a recession.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1524390639609290753?t=XzKaZzvL9lJ4KzKCAbanPA&s=19

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

Mr Hootington posted:

Hell yesterday and today biden essentially called for the fed to do a recession.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1524390639609290753?t=XzKaZzvL9lJ4KzKCAbanPA&s=19

Volcker Shock 2, baby! People said Biden could be the new FDR, but he has chosen to be the new Carter instead.

edit: my point still stands but on examination that tweet does not seem very reliable

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:



Instead of spending millions directly and costing 99% of the population indirectly, you could use that money to just have a more reasonable safety net or invest in other types of manufacturing. Otherwise, you are going to have to require higher and higher tariffs and costs on society to support an ever smaller portion of the population for no reason other than we fetishize factory workers, miners, and farmers.
It's not about "fetishizing" factory workers, it's about the fact that people need jobs to live, and it's not just factory workers, when the factory goes away the town's economy suffers and a lot of people lose their jobs, which is typically not counted when think tanks publish papers about how great outsourcing is for workers ("don't worry your jobs are safe! Someone else will just be doing them")

You are right that tariffs alone aren't the solution, after all we had tariffs and an industrial policy in 1880 and that wasn't a good time to be a worker. What you need is a strong labor movement so when a company automates a factory, they can be compelled to reduce the workday instead of firing a bunch of workers and making everyone else work as much as before. Free trade undermines labor power because hey if you workers want to benefit from automation instead of being just as hosed as before we'll move the factory to Mexico or Indonesia or wherever we can bribe a government to let us gently caress their workers instead.

Also the only time we had a safety net at all was when we had a strong labor movement, it's not a coincidence that free trade was paired with destroying welfare.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
If you think inflation is bad now, wait until the east coast runs out of diesel.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Mr Hootington posted:

If you think inflation is bad now, wait until the east coast runs out of diesel.

Time to fill up on veggie oil :getin:

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Gripweed posted:

Volcker Shock 2, baby! People said Biden could be the new FDR, but he has chosen to be the new Carter instead.

edit: my point still stands but on examination that tweet does not seem very reliable

Yep. Kashkari and Bostic both said in the last week that the Fed will force a recession if the supply chain doesn't unfuck and inflstion stays high. The only action the fed can do to fight inflation is demand destruction and destroying labor power (wages). To do those you have to have a recession.

poo poo, after the FOMC Powell said expect inflation to continue to surprise through the summer.

People need to listen to what is said. It is all telegraphed out.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Mr Hootington posted:


At this point we will be getting a recession whether on its own or forced by the fed. How severe is what you should be asking.
Hell yesterday and today biden essentially called for the fed to do a recession.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1524390639609290753?t=XzKaZzvL9lJ4KzKCAbanPA&s=19
Wasn't the Volker recession what sank Carter because everyone (rightly) blamed him for it and (wrongly) hoped Reagan would fix it because he was the other guy

Are they trying to lose or are they hoping the recession will be over by 2024 if they start now

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

VitalSigns posted:

Wasn't the Volker recession what sank Carter because everyone (rightly) blamed him for it and (wrongly) hoped Reagan would fix it because he was the other guy

Are they trying to lose or are they hoping the recession will be over by 2024 if they start now

The Fed is independent and the President doesn't set monetary policy (see: Carter, Jimmy and Trump, Donald yelling at them to lower rates).

The Volker recession was what drove down inflation from ~15% to ~3%. But, obviously, the process of getting there was extremely unpopular. It took about 4 years to fully succeed and Reagan had a very bad midterm in 1982 because of the situation.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply