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The X-man cometh posted:Isn't the push out of Kharkiv a successful offensive operation for the Ukrainians? It looks that way to the layperson but it was actually a bold and stunningly successful Russian offensive targeting the credibility of their conventional forces.
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May 16, 2022 06:38
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1526057126468149248?s=20&t=9w3psk2wstrI24rCutM10A The ever shrinking objectives of the mighty Russian military! Surely, even that would have to be a struggle for them unless Ukraine hasn't been able to see the shift occur and is blindsided, right? Russia can move whatever troops there but if Ukraine reinfores then it really wouldn't seem to help the Russian attack. And could even cost Russia some ground in other areas if they aren't careful?
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May 16, 2022 06:42
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Moktaro posted:Much like Putin reaching for the shiny red button, this would end up Red October - You Arrogant rear end.jpg 
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May 16, 2022 07:36
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1526057126468149248?s=20&t=9w3psk2wstrI24rCutM10A Wow, Russia stealing battle plans from Reddit https://reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/uj7grl/handy_image_showing_russian_progress_on_the/
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May 16, 2022 08:07
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Yes definitely. But there been unsubstantiated rumors that Russia will counter attack shortly after retreating. I think that's horse poo poo but the units at Kharkiv will not be effective by being repositioned to Donbass. a) How do you know they wont be effective? b) There has been several major counter offensives that have stuck - Kyiv is the big one, Kharkiv is another, there have been more like Sumy etc. Russia has lost half the territory they initially seized. c) Russia has almost certainly lost any capacity to do much more than try to dig in.
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May 16, 2022 08:15
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:a) How do you know they wont be effective? I think they mean, the Russian units retreating out of Kharkiv will not be effective in the Donbass (general disorganisation, being battered from the battle of Kharkiv, etc.) so any rumors about a Russian counterattack to suddenly capture or re-threaten Kharkiv sounds like horseshit to them
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May 16, 2022 08:42
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Young Freud posted:This sounds absolutely dire. (e:fb) When you factor in their less-than-stellar healthcare and rates of alcoholism it's more like conscripting 50-60yos in the west.
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May 16, 2022 09:12
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Deltasquid posted:I think they mean, the Russian units retreating out of Kharkiv will not be effective in the Donbass (general disorganisation, being battered from the battle of Kharkiv, etc.) so any rumors about a Russian counterattack to suddenly capture or re-threaten Kharkiv sounds like horseshit to them Some mentions of a number of BTGs in Belgorod presumably refitting after earlier deployments. Question is where they will go when or if they become ready to redeploy. The area north of Kharkiv was held mostly by LNR/DPR units and mercenaries. It's also where the neo-nazi Rusich group were deployed in April. Clearly the appetite for pitched battle in those groups is low so maybe Russia will seek to take the ares back and hold it with regular forces such as they may be.
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May 16, 2022 09:32
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Serious question: has anyone seen any of the old cope cages in the wild recently? I can't remember seeing one in quite a while
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May 16, 2022 09:36
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:August seems like too much time. I mean what's left at that point? We've seen little push in the last three days which is not great. Yeah "refitting" is cool and all but this is constantly the newest hottest way to say the Russians can still win here. Offensives are hard to achieve, and doing so with no air superiority is loving impossible. Artillery a cool and all but the longer arty sits the longer it can be countered. And on that note this isn't a shoot and scoot type of deal. The arty had to be setup and ready to rock for hours and hours. Moving repositioning to a new area etc can render the defender ample time to stunt an offensive tempo because counter battery and air strikes are both non issues temporarily. Even ten minutes of no worries arty strikes can devastate an attackers spearheads. I can't work out if you're arguing that Russia is going to lose or Russia is still going to win. The issue is that the Ukrainian artillery now out ranges the Russian artillery and the air space is contested enough that neither side has air superiority, and the Ukrainian anti-drone weapons are better and they have more tanks AND drones than Russia does in theater. Ukraine is going to win.
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May 16, 2022 10:31
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Serious question: has anyone seen any of the old cope cages in the wild recently? I can't remember seeing one in quite a while No, I haven't seen any for a while. It would be extremely funny if they actually worked (I could believe them being highly effective at stopping drone-dropped grenades) but some commander looked online and saw they were getting mocked because of them and order the tank crews take them off. More likely there's a lot more tanks dragged straight out of storage and there's not enough time to weld cages onto them before they end up in the fray. Deltasquid posted:I think they mean, the Russian units retreating out of Kharkiv will not be effective in the Donbass (general disorganisation, being battered from the battle of Kharkiv, etc.) so any rumors about a Russian counterattack to suddenly capture or re-threaten Kharkiv sounds like horseshit to them I doubt any attempts by Russia to re-enter parts of Ukraine it has previously abandoned would be effective. Even with fresh troops and equipment I'd be shocked if Ukraine hasn't fortified entry points. With any build up for a re-entry attempt likely to take some time I don't think Ukraine would be caught unaware and would probably be Bayraktaring the poo poo out of them, and shelling them as they got within range.
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May 16, 2022 10:34
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Comstar posted:I can't work out if you're arguing that Russia is going to lose or Russia is still going to win. Is there a source for the more tanks thing? I always figured that that was probably hyperbole
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May 16, 2022 10:48
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Hey! I'm actually an American who normally lives in Ukraine, but left about 2 days before the bombardment of Kyiv started on the 24th. I just got into Przemyśl 2 days after. Not sure what I can add to this thread since we're like 76 days into the expansion of the war, but it's nice to see goons are supportive of Ukraine. I've been living there about 7 years and run free online speaking clubs with Ukrainians that I started when the pandemic started so I have contact with a pretty wide swathe of Ukrainians.
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May 16, 2022 11:07
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Deltasquid posted:I think they mean, the Russian units retreating out of Kharkiv will not be effective in the Donbass (general disorganisation, being battered from the battle of Kharkiv, etc.) so any rumors about a Russian counterattack to suddenly capture or re-threaten Kharkiv sounds like horseshit to them Okay, that would make sense, I most likely read their post wrong.
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May 16, 2022 11:10
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aphid_licker posted:Is there a source for the more tanks thing? I always figured that that was probably hyperbole From memory it was based on Oryx's figures and Ukraine's estimated pre-war tank stocks.
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May 16, 2022 11:23
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Mochiballs posted:Hey! I'm actually an American who normally lives in Ukraine, but left about 2 days before the bombardment of Kyiv started on the 24th. I just got into Przemyśl 2 days after. Not sure what I can add to this thread since we're like 76 days into the expansion of the war, but it's nice to see goons are supportive of Ukraine. I've been living there about 7 years and run free online speaking clubs with Ukrainians that I started when the pandemic started so I have contact with a pretty wide swathe of Ukrainians. Im sorry you had to leave your home. I hope you can soon return with your friends and family alive and well.
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May 16, 2022 11:24
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aphid_licker posted:Is there a source for the more tanks thing? I always figured that that was probably hyperbole It's been stated by US defence officials, about 3 weeks ago so the situation has probably become even more imbalanced since then. Chalks fucked around with this message at 11:32 on May 16, 2022 |
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May 16, 2022 11:30
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Chalks posted:It's been stated by US defence officials, about 3 weeks ago so the situation has probably become even more imbalanced since then. I will retract my previous post in that case. Given US spy satellites have been doing everything up to logging serial numbers of Russian tanks in this conflict I don't doubt the US DoD is far off the mark with their assessment. How is Russia so poo poo at this lol
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May 16, 2022 11:47
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gay picnic defence posted:How is Russia so poo poo at this lol Say what you will about the type of legitimised corruption endemic in the Western MIC, which hands colossal amounts of public money to private companies, it at least results in stuff actually being built and (eventually) working, however overpriced. Any money that Russia puts into its own military seems to end up either paying for some officer's dacha or whatever's bought with it being stolen and sold on the black market (like the explosives from their reactive armour, JFC).
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May 16, 2022 12:13
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Something entirely different: I watched a Bundeswehr general talk about Ukraine and one of the things he was most surprised about was that Russian armour isn't camouflaged at all. The German doctrine demands that everything gets draped in vegetation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMQwhEUv3xg&t=88s Meanwhile in Ukraine there are videos of Stugna-P that clearly show tanks silhouetted in a treeline from kilometres away. Is there a reason Russia doesn't seem to bother with camouflage?
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May 16, 2022 12:29
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Antigravitas posted:Something entirely different: Because it's easier not to. Everything at every level is half-assed.
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May 16, 2022 12:36
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Antigravitas posted:Something entirely different: Maintaining discipline requires long term training and drilling, which all costs money. There's a reason why professional military personnel are worth so much and militaries generally try their hardest to make sure they stay alive and in one piece no matter where they are. Instead of Russia just throwing people into a meatgrinder, because evidently the military doesn't seem to think they're that valuable.
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May 16, 2022 12:39
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Antigravitas posted:Something entirely different: There’s definitely footage of Russian vehicles with camo and some of it looks pretty good. There was some footage of some AFVs near Kyiv which had bits of scrap, rags and carpet on them and from the air it was honestly hard to pick them out from all the random trash exploded off the surrounding buildings onto the street. Maybe it’s selective bias because most Russian tanks we see are burnt to gently caress along with any bits of tree tied to them. It’s also worth noting that a lot of that visual camo does nothing in the thermal cameras used by a lot of those missile and drone systems so maybe a fair few Russian crews have just given up on the idea.
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May 16, 2022 12:50
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Noone picked up how they are comouflaging their tanks with household appliances?
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May 16, 2022 13:00
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Chalks posted:It's been stated by US defence officials, about 3 weeks ago so the situation has probably become even more imbalanced since then. Jesus Christ. Thanks!
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May 16, 2022 13:04
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Mikojan posted:Noone picked up how they are comouflaging their tanks with household appliances? Russian tanks are actually generically engineered decorator crabs.
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May 16, 2022 13:09
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Antigravitas posted:Something entirely different: Because the paint the Russian Military was going to use for the purposes of camouflaging Russian AFVs was sold on eBay to help pay for someone’s yacht.
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May 16, 2022 13:10
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The US military does a lovely job camoflauging its vehicles too. I fought and lost that argument as a tank platoon leader in Korea 20 years ago. It's hard enough to get the darn things painted a regional color, nevermind a pattern. It's possible that the training and doctrine folks just decided it wasn't worth the cost when thermal sights became more common. I still disagree, though, because camo netting can mess with your radar signature a bit. See also: helmets.
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May 16, 2022 13:14
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Mochiballs posted:Hey! I'm actually an American who normally lives in Ukraine, but left about 2 days before the bombardment of Kyiv started on the 24th. I just got into Przemyśl 2 days after. Not sure what I can add to this thread since we're like 76 days into the expansion of the war, but it's nice to see goons are supportive of Ukraine. I've been living there about 7 years and run free online speaking clubs with Ukrainians that I started when the pandemic started so I have contact with a pretty wide swathe of Ukrainians. Hi, welcome to Poland! Hope you'll have a good stay in Przemyśl and I wish you a fast return to your home. Or not, stick around if you'd like. Stay safe goonfriend. Antigravitas posted:Something entirely different: Possibly it's tied to the overall feel of "don't care" for the soldiers. Also if they camoufladged themselves well enough that they cover their markings, there would be a lot more friendly fire - both sides are using very similar vehicles after all.
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May 16, 2022 13:34
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So I've been following this on and off, since the thread is obviously a monster and I've been busy with a new job. From what I can gather, though, there are really only three possible explanations for Russia's performance in the war, and I'm wondering if we have any real evidence or reason to lean for one of these over the others? 1. Russian officials were legitimately unaware of how terrible their military was and what a disaster this would be. 2. Russian officials knew but did not tell Putin out of fear of upsetting him. 3. Russian officials knew, and told Putin, but he decided to invade anyway because he knows better than them. Like not to undersell or discredit the brave actions of the Ukrainian military and all they have done, but unless I am misunderstanding the situation this is at least as much a case of Russia having lost before they even began as it is a case of Ukraine mounting a skilled and effective defense. That like even if Ukraine were half as competent as they are, Russia would still be in a bad place. I readily admit, again, though, that I'm not following this situation as closely as I would like to and so it's entirely possible I am incorrect and this is less about Russia overestimating their own capabilities and more about them underestimating Ukraine's (which they also did, for sure, I know) Mochiballs posted:Hey! I'm actually an American who normally lives in Ukraine, but left about 2 days before the bombardment of Kyiv started on the 24th. I just got into Przemyśl 2 days after. Not sure what I can add to this thread since we're like 76 days into the expansion of the war, but it's nice to see goons are supportive of Ukraine. I've been living there about 7 years and run free online speaking clubs with Ukrainians that I started when the pandemic started so I have contact with a pretty wide swathe of Ukrainians. That sucks. I'm glad you are safe, and I hope you are able to return to a intact home reasonably soon, and more importantly find that the friends and family you left behind are all doing well for themselves. Stay safe, Goon.
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May 16, 2022 13:50
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Ynglaur posted:The US military does a lovely job camoflauging its vehicles too. I fought and lost that argument as a tank platoon leader in Korea 20 years ago. It's hard enough to get the darn things painted a regional color, nevermind a pattern. It's possible that the training and doctrine folks just decided it wasn't worth the cost when thermal sights became more common. I still disagree, though, because camo netting can mess with your radar signature a bit. I remember there was serious work at making thermal camouflage about 20 years ago or so as well. I wonder if anything came of that as the early testing seemed to be very promising but I never heard anything again. That means it went heavily classified or fell apart, there is no in-between with stuff like that.
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May 16, 2022 13:53
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I didn't mean fancy thermal camouflage. Just strap some vegetation to your vehicle so when you're sitting in a treeline enemy infantry won't immediately notice the silhouette from 3km away. It's a super basic thing that works well against eyeballs and cameras. The remark about identification makes sense, they seem to have serious problems with comms and might risk friendly fire if it is obscured.
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May 16, 2022 14:11
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:1. Russian officials were legitimately unaware of how terrible their military was and what a disaster this would be. It's going to be debated for decades, and we're really only going to know in like thirty years or so once people's posthumous memoirs come out, but it's really 1) If they knew, which is a big if since some of them (Shoigu) were put there specifically because they had no military experience 2) They would not have told Putin, because you don't report bad news upwards, and even if they told him 3) It wouldn't have mattered, because this wasn't supposed to be a military operation, this was supposed to be a police action with the Ukrainian military collapsing and collaborators securing local control.
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May 16, 2022 14:13
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:So I've been following this on and off, since the thread is obviously a monster and I've been busy with a new job. From what I can gather, though, there are really only three possible explanations for Russia's performance in the war, and I'm wondering if we have any real evidence or reason to lean for one of these over the others? It's probably a mix of all three.
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May 16, 2022 14:13
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Comstar posted:I can't work out if you're arguing that Russia is going to lose or Russia is still going to win. I will quote myself from Feb 24th 5 minutes into the conflict to answer this "Russia will lose. Ukraine will win". But if I work off of that declaration and don't even consider the alternative how can I get into the mind behind the Russian tactical decisions? Russian combat power is paper thin as it stands and it will start to be eroded axis by axis in the next few weeks.
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May 16, 2022 14:14
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:So I've been following this on and off, since the thread is obviously a monster and I've been busy with a new job. From what I can gather, though, there are really only three possible explanations for Russia's performance in the war, and I'm wondering if we have any real evidence or reason to lean for one of these over the others? According to multiple inside stories, it was the combination of 1 and 2 - military leadership and Putin got high on their own supply and corrupted info (including horrible lies about paper strength of units), while financial and infrastructure block and also Naryshkin (head of foreign intelligence service) understood that it would be a strategic disaster, but saying no to dear leader these days is impossible.
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May 16, 2022 14:15
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Djarum posted:I remember there was serious work at making thermal camouflage about 20 years ago or so as well. I wonder if anything came of that as the early testing seemed to be very promising but I never heard anything again. That means it went heavily classified or fell apart, there is no in-between with stuff like that. Saab has sold a ton of their Barracuda camo system to the US. How it's implemented I have no idea.
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May 16, 2022 14:20
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So McDonald's and Renault are pulling out of Russia, previously McDonald's had just suspended its business in Russia. I hope we see more western companies taking similar actions. https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1526149244603752450 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/16/mcdonalds-to-sell-russia-business--invasion-ukraine https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1526128938518470657 https://www.politico.eu/article/renault-sells-russian-assets-to-government-buyers/ Really interesting article on the state of the Russian economy. https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1526131847251562503 https://ridl.io/en/russia-rsquo-s-brittle-wartime-economy/
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May 16, 2022 14:20
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:So I've been following this on and off, since the thread is obviously a monster and I've been busy with a new job. From what I can gather, though, there are really only three possible explanations for Russia's performance in the war, and I'm wondering if we have any real evidence or reason to lean for one of these over the others? The whole operation was predicated on quickly killing/capturing Zelensky and Kyiv and then being welcomed as liberators. If you somehow convince yourself that that's going to work, everything else kind of makes sense. Some people knew this wasn't going to go well (there was an article making the rounds a few days ago) but I'm sure nobody wants to listen and communicate this to Putin.
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May 16, 2022 14:23
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Artillery Seeing the impact of more modern artillery has been interesting. I didn't realize the US had anything that outranged anything the Russians had. One of the whole points of the Crusader program (canceled) was to get artillery support more than about 18km. (Yes, yes, I know rocket-assisted projectiles extended that out a little bit.) This thread pointed towards some research that now makes me wonder why the US doesn't just buy Pzh2000's and call it done for a generation. Based on a superficial analysis of publicly-available info, it basically looks like the concept of the US Crusader program but actually built and working. Deterrance Another thought I've had is that traditionally deterance has been geared towards the concept of "reasonable cost". That works if both parties have a common understanding of what is reasonable. Smug Neutrality To those who posted earlier that there's no reason to join NATO If you're a) surrounded by NATO and b) not on the Russian border, may I also point out a very large contributor to NATO who doesn't share a border with Russia and yet commits itself to the defense of a bunch of countries across the ocean? American foreign ventures are often misguided at best and ill-intended at worst, but the US has come to the defense of Europe for several generations while not under the same threat as that faced by countries such as Ukraine, Finland, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc. I recognize countries can contribute to the good of the world in more ways than military, but it still pricks my skin a bit to read people smug about how safe they are by being de facto protected by NATO with none of the commitments.
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May 16, 2022 14:26
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