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ThinkTank posted:I feel like Leafs fans have so little frame of reference for what a good team is in the salary cap world that it's paralyzing them with inertia. Sometimes you gotta be bold to get over the hump. The Canucks had bad goaltending their entire history so acquired Luongo and now they are a franchise goalie factory. Chicago added Hossa to their young core. Pittsburgh added Kessel and won two cups. Adding is one thing but I just don't like the idea of breaking up that Leafs core. Washington and Pittsburgh could have done the same many times and largely refrained from doing so and it paid off in the end as each got some championships with their core players. The closest thing I suppose would be Pittsburgh trading James Neal but as good as he was at the time I don't know if I'd say he was a core player in the same way Crosby/Malkin/Letang were and are. So I dunno. I'm not a Leafs fan but I'd replace the coach first and go from there. I think that core can win with the right supporting cast and coaching.
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May 17, 2022 19:25
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The leafs should offer sheet Oettinger
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May 17, 2022 19:26
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A bunch of Leafs middling guys have a ton of surplus value because of the strength of team they play on (both inflated stats and the "they'd flourish in an expanded role" mentality). Look at guys like Josh Leivo and Travis Boyd who retained a lot of perceived value for a long time but then the Leafs were forced to jettison then for nothing rather than maximize their value. The Leafs need to finally cash in on guys at peak value rather than hold onto the bag too long. There are 3 or 4 depth pieces they could move for futures or as part or a larger trade pretty easily so long as they can get over the idea that Pierre Engvall is a season away from putting it all together. I just don't know how after six years of this you can preach patience yet again. Matthews is a UFA in two summers.
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May 17, 2022 19:27
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Powershift posted:The leafs should offer sheet Oettinger This exactly the kind of aggressive move they should do but definitely won't.
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May 17, 2022 19:28
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I remember when I was calling for the Leafs to jettison Kappy and Johnsson after the Columbus series for cap reasons, and someone (might have even been Rex or another one of PAS) was like "the Leafs are hosed, move those guys and they have no depth scoring" but the joke was that both those guys sucked and were easily replaced by guys making 1/3 the money. Turns that if someone puts up ~40 points standing next to Matthews and younger Tavares they're replacement level not effective depth.eXXon posted:Brodie and Holl had pretty much the best 5v5 defensive rate metrics (xGA, SCA, Fenwick against) of Leafs D in the playoffs. You can probably guess that Rielly + Lyubushkin were terribad. Holl's scoring chance against metrics were also very good at 4v5 whereas Brodie's were... not. Justin Holl's a good penalty killer but he does not impact play, as rex helpfully pointed out by posting his wowys, and so is only effective when paired with an actual effective player. The main problem with the Leafs D this season was that Holl, Muzzin, and Rielly all needed to play with Brodie to look good. Leafs would have been a lot better off keeping McCann, not signing Ritchie, and just playing Liljegren to get run over on the third line all year.
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May 17, 2022 19:29
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Marner for Nurse e5
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May 17, 2022 19:38
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Keene deserves a lot more scrutiny for losing a series to Dominic Ducharme given what we now know about Dominic Ducharme.
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May 17, 2022 19:38
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Ginette Reno posted:Winnipeg with Trotz would be interesting. They have enough talent there that they could probably be a consistent playoff team with a good coach. The idea of Trotz and the Winnipeg forwards together is hard for me to imagine.. it will be like when Ken Hitchcock took over the Dallas Stars of 2017-18.. except the Stars had already been trying to transition into a more defense first style under the last year with Lindy Ruff (with limited success) The philosophy which the Jets have played under for years and years is almost the polar opposite from the way that Trotz coaches his teams... Like I don't know that certain players on their roster will be able to play in that system (Scheifele first and foremost). Would be fascinating to watch what moves are made if they do hire Trotz to try and make that work.
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May 17, 2022 19:40
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Powershift posted:The leafs should offer sheet Oettinger yeah do it. Max compensation level Stars need to rebuild anyway **I mean maybe he's Thatcher Demko, but nobody was saying that about him a month ago. The most people would speculate about Oettinger is that he had taken a solid step this year towards being the starter, but he was worryingly inconsistent and hopefully would grow out of that with time. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 19:44 on May 17, 2022 |
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May 17, 2022 19:42
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Starsfan posted:yeah do it. Max compensation level This would be a good reason for Dubas to be adamant about keeping his first rounders... Then again from what we've seen from goalies lately there's a 50% chance that Oettinger isn't even in the league in 2 years
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May 17, 2022 19:45
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Also the Stars played boring choke the life out of the game hockey which really helps out a goalie, Keefe basically demands his team give up rush chances trying to keep the cycle going and you need a particular kind of goalie if that's your style. It's a big reason why Andersen looked so bad with whatever injury was bothering him on the Leafs, if you can't move side to side it's really hard to keep up with what the Leafs give up.
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May 17, 2022 19:47
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Powershift posted:The leafs should offer sheet Oettinger Everyone who has cap space should offer sheet Oettinger on an expensive 3 year contract. Maximum goalie voodoo chaos.
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May 17, 2022 19:55
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ThinkTank posted:This exactly the kind of aggressive move they should do but definitely won't. I agree, especially given they trade their picks a fair bit already
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May 17, 2022 20:08
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big issue for me between Pit/WSH is that Rielly is not in the same category as Letang/Carlson. And their goaltending...unless someone has a Murray-like emergence, I'd try to move Nylander and whoever for a #1 D or a goalie. you can get by with Auston/Marner/Tavares on the top end. or trade Marner and keep Nylander
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May 17, 2022 20:08
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Koopa Kid posted:Also the Stars played boring choke the life out of the game hockey which really helps out a goalie, Keefe basically demands his team give up rush chances trying to keep the cycle going and you need a particular kind of goalie if that's your style. It's a big reason why Andersen looked so bad with whatever injury was bothering him on the Leafs, if you can't move side to side it's really hard to keep up with what the Leafs give up. I wouldn't describe what we saw in the playoffs as "choke the life out of the game" hockey.. more like let the other team bombard your goaltender with grade A chances the entire game and hope for the best hockey. The Stars let up the 3rd worst rate of xGA of any team in the playoffs in the 1st round despite (because?) their sole focus on denying Calgary's attack at the cost of creating nothing at the other end. During the regular season certainly. The team plays a very disciplined system that is primarily focused on not giving up odd man rushes and trying to force shot attempts to the outside of the rink.
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May 17, 2022 20:09
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Koopa Kid posted:Then again from what we've seen from goalies lately there's a 50% chance that Oettinger isn't even in the league in 2 years I think he's legit. The USNTDP is a goalie factory. Gibson, Demko, Knight and Oettinger are all products of their system in the last decade. Jack Campbell and Joseph Woll too.
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May 17, 2022 20:12
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Yeah I should have said “tried to” but as you say they limit rush chances and are fine getting cycled to oblivion. Because rush chances are actually dangerous and cycle chances far less so. Now let me take a big sip of water and look up where the top 5 regular season Toronto Maple Leafs ranked in rush offense and defense this seaso-
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May 17, 2022 20:13
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Starsfan posted:The idea of Trotz and the Winnipeg forwards together is hard for me to imagine.. it will be like when Ken Hitchcock took over the Dallas Stars of 2017-18.. except the Stars had already been trying to transition into a more defense first style under the last year with Lindy Ruff (with limited success) I have no clue what the Jets philosophy is. Are they high scoring? Because they spend the first 30 minutes of about half their games not getting an offensive chance. They absolutely are not defensive, when the whole plan seems to be to offer up as many danger zone chances as possible and hope a goalie can get a shutout. The only things I would hope a new coach wouldn't lose are: Let Ehlers carry the puck with speed and create chances, let Lowry line grind in offensive corners and also keep KC rolling. Nothing else has worked, for years at this point.
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May 17, 2022 20:43
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Koopa Kid posted:Counterpoint: Scheifele is a fake tough guy dickhead who’d probably just get himself suspended Kadri-style Eh I know that bad hit makes a reputation. But he doesn't hit a lot. He doesn't come off as a tough guy either. Just overly competitive and focused on hockey all the time. Except when it comes to defense, then he doesn't seem to focus or compete
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May 17, 2022 20:50
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:big issue for me between Pit/WSH is that Rielly is not in the same category as Letang/Carlson. And their goaltending...unless someone has a Murray-like emergence, I'd try to move Nylander and whoever for a #1 D or a goalie. Rielly is exactly John Carlson from 2-3 years ago: https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1454112804701671439?lang=en https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1285278431022915586?lang=en Ok, those cards don't show the same boxes but Rielly's xGA and PK numbers are crap too. This blog claims Carlson is much better defensively now, so it would be great if Rielly could try that. Then again, it also says that Rasmus Sandin is one of the top OFD 5v5 in xGAR, so uh I guess we'll see about that. Moving Nylander is generally a bad idea as he's actually worth the money and shows up in the playoffs, both scoring and possession-wise, even while anchored to Tavares. I don't think there's a goalie worth trading for and while a #1RD to cover Rielly would be great, well... who exactly? Maybe dumpster dive on one of LA's spare RD but they don't really fit the bill. Or go back in time and draft Braden Schneider instead of Rodion Amirov.
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May 17, 2022 20:57
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The fact that they interviewed him at all is extremely encouraging. I hope they're smart enough to offer him market rate, if we got Trotz considering the hometown job only to lose him on a lowball offer I'm going to lose my mind
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May 17, 2022 21:28
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FBS posted:The fact that they interviewed him at all is extremely encouraging. I hope they're smart enough to offer him market rate, if we got Trotz considering the hometown job only to lose him on a lowball offer I'm going to lose my mind Take this in the best way, but I’d really prefer if Trotz would stay in any other division that isn’t the Central. It’s not pretty hockey always, but it is often successful hockey.
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May 17, 2022 21:38
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The Jets have been disappointing for every season but one, so I'll take boring hockey if it means wins.
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May 17, 2022 21:49
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Duck Rodgers posted:Eh I know that bad hit makes a reputation. But he doesn't hit a lot. He doesn't come off as a tough guy either. Just overly competitive and focused on hockey all the time. Except when it comes to defense, then he doesn't seem to focus or compete Literally every time the Jets play the Leafs he gets slash happy and likes to act like he’ll go after smaller guys like Marner after whistles before getting “held back” by the linesmen, which is why I added “fake” to the tough guy act
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May 17, 2022 21:54
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Koopa Kid posted:Literally every time the Jets play the Leafs he gets slash happy and likes to act like he’ll go after smaller guys like Marner after whistles before getting “held back” by the linesmen, which is why I added “fake” to the tough guy act From a jets fan perspective, the leafs play way more aggressive/feisty against the jets than other teams, since Buff left. I don’t think the teams like each other.
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May 17, 2022 22:02
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Ginette Reno posted:Matheson's fine in terms of his cap hit. It's the length that really sucks. I actually don't mind their cap situation. For an old team, they haven't really handed out too many egregious contracts. The Carter contract is meh, but not a huge cap hit or super long length so whatever. Zucker is a little overpaid and they need more out of him or to move him if possible. Kapanen sucks but I'm sure they'll move on from him or give him a prove it deal. Dumoulin is declining but is probably still more or less worth what he makes. He's also definitely tradeable I think if they decide to move on. I completely agree. The concern is that during this off-season they sign the boat anchor contracts that adds years to the eventual rebuild.
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May 17, 2022 22:07
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I think Toronto's first move should be hiring a NHL level coach that actually has a system. DeBeor is very much a coach that can only go as far as his roster can take him. He would be an improvement on Keefe, but I don't think he's capable enough to really put Toronto over the top. He will also wilt and meltdown in that media market. Edit: The funny/annoying thing for Toronto is that the perfect coach for their roster already exists and is in the league. Unfortunately for the Leafs he's, currently, employed. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 22:21 on May 17, 2022 |
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May 17, 2022 22:11
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Finally got Trotz out of the Central a couple years ago, don't bring him back!
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May 17, 2022 22:22
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Edit: The funny/annoying thing for Toronto is that the perfect coach for their roster already exists and is in the league. Unfortunately for the Leafs he's, currently, employed. Probably only for one or two more years. I'm not sure how the Leafs would feel about their best player and coach both being Americans, though.
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May 17, 2022 22:24
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Edit: The funny/annoying thing for Toronto is that the perfect coach for their roster already exists and is in the league. Unfortunately for the Leafs he's, currently, employed. I thought the Flyers fired AV.
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May 17, 2022 22:29
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eXXon posted:Rielly is exactly John Carlson from 2-3 years ago: from an analytics perspective, Rielly has always been rated poor defensively and great offensively. Carlson and Letang have had bad stretches on defense, but they've also had good stretches where they've performed really well. notably, Carlson was actually closer to Rielly during their cup run, but he was better according to the fancies preceding that and after that. Letang had the odd down year sometimes, but he's been pretty consistent as a two-way guy aside from that, and only very recently as he winds down his career has started declining in both areas. but honestly, it's more about the eye test for me. I know it's subjective, but I haven't seen Rielly really take over games consistently on both offense and defense like Carlson and Letang can. A good #1, even if they're a psycho and jumpy and emotional like Letang, is a team's best tool at keeping a consistent pace and turning around momentum. Letang's performance in Game 1 against the Rangers was an amazing game. He finished at like a 70% xGF, but he would just snuff out the Rangers' structure and momentum every other minute for like the whole game. Guys like Theodore, McAvoy, Doughty, etc. all perform that function on their team. Even Karlsson, as deficient in terms of 1v1 defense as he was, hard carried against the Rangers almost every time he played because he settled things down and interrupted the Rangers' structure. Rielly does a lot of things well, but he's not a guy like even a Dan Boyle in his prime where you would say "this guy has his some warts, but he controls games". i don't know if any of those types of guys are going to be available any time soon, but there have been very few cup winners that don't have that type of "settle it down boys" type #1 defender. Carolina in 05-06, Tampa in 03-04 before Boyle was in his prime, then it's all the way back to 74-75 with Philly before there's another one.
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May 17, 2022 23:28
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The thing about Letang is that, while other than skating his skills are modest, his instincts are great and he is the most relentlessly aggressive player I've ever seen. Whatever his instincts say to do, he does it immediately and with total conviction. He gives no fucks. It occasionally creates busted plays going the other way, but more often breaks plays for the Penguins. It does rely totally on his skating though so whenever his legs go it's probably going to be a catastrophic final year or two before he retires.
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May 17, 2022 23:30
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Eric the Mauve posted:The thing about Letang is that, while other than skating his skills are modest, his instincts are great and he is the most relentlessly aggressive player I've ever seen. Whatever his instincts say to do, he does it immediately and with total conviction. He gives no fucks. It occasionally creates busted plays going the other way, but more often breaks plays for the Penguins. he's got a bit of Rozsival in him, and I mean that in a good way, believe it or not. Rozy got poo poo on by Rangers fans because when he made mistakes, it was the most obvious and noticeable thing in the world. but the other 24 minutes he just delivered solid positional defending and perfect exit passes to Jagr. Letang is like that except he's Canadian, jacked as gently caress, way more talented, and prone to losing his mind. his mistakes as you said are generally not "the puck is a grenade all of the sudden" but "i believe with 100% of my soul that I'm going to score if I do this wide pinch behind the opposing net"
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May 17, 2022 23:34
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Letang is also the only player I've ever seen get a game misconduct for something he said to a ref. He may be the most widely detested player in the league by refs and other players. Dude really is a psycho and I kind of worry about what happens when his hockey days end.
Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 23:39 on May 17, 2022 |
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May 17, 2022 23:36
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Eric the Mauve posted:Whatever his instincts say to do, he does it immediately and with total conviction. He gives no fucks. It occasionally creates busted plays going the other way, but more often breaks plays for the Penguins. this also occasionally led to him taking baseball swings at other players with his stick
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May 17, 2022 23:39
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Eric the Mauve posted:Letang is also the only player I've ever seen get a game misconduct for something he said to a ref. He may be the most widely detested player in the league by refs and other players. Dude really is a psycho and I kind of worry about what happens when his hockey days end. Really won't be surprised if he ends up as a Coach/Owner/Caesar of a QMJHL team with maybe an NHL stint here and there like Patrick Roy. Or he could end up as the Pens' coach and take up the mantle from Rod as "retired player that is somehow still in better shape than all of his players"
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May 17, 2022 23:42
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rex rabidorum vires posted:I think Toronto's first move should be hiring a NHL level coach that actually has a system. DeBeor is very much a coach that can only go as far as his roster can take him. He would be an improvement on Keefe, but I don't think he's capable enough to really put Toronto over the top. He will also wilt and meltdown in that media market. Isn't Torterella still available? 
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May 17, 2022 23:47
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rex rabidorum vires posted:I completely agree. The concern is that during this off-season they sign the boat anchor contracts that adds years to the eventual rebuild. Well...what would those be? Malkin? Letang? I don't think they'll fall off the cliff that badly over the 3 or 4 year deals the Pens would give them. Even if they did, those deals would be expiring right around when the Pens begin to suck. Rust would be the one that could be lovely if they give him a lot of years and dollars, but I kinda doubt the Pens will outbid what Rust could get from UFA so I suspect he's gone. No idea what will happen with Rakell. I think his status depends on how many of Malkin/Letang/Rust they try to sign, and what that ends up costing. Eric the Mauve posted:The thing about Letang is that, while other than skating his skills are modest, his instincts are great and he is the most relentlessly aggressive player I've ever seen. Whatever his instincts say to do, he does it immediately and with total conviction. He gives no fucks. It occasionally creates busted plays going the other way, but more often breaks plays for the Penguins. His skating was so ridiculous to begin with that I'm not sure how bad the decline will be unless he plays until he's 43 or something. I suspect he'll still be one of the better skating dmen in the league over the duration of whatever contract he signs next.
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May 17, 2022 23:56
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ImplicitAssembler posted:Isn't Torterella still available? as much as I'd like to see him front-kick Steve Simmons in the face or whatever, the NHL should really have to approve any Canadian coaching contracts teams offer him like Joel Q. but only in Canada. he can go anywhere in the US. but I believe him and Canada are like oil and water. i don't want to see him there
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May 18, 2022 00:02
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*Winnipeg opens the door to the interview room, nods* *Trotz walks in, nods* *Winnipeg takes a seat behind a large oak desk* *Trotz sits across the table* *the two sit in pleasant silence for a moment* Winnipeg: "PLEASE"
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