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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:What did they do? The only commentary from anchors I heard yesterday were them swooning over "tall and manly Democrat is what they need to win back the white working class! Not weak and nerdy looking like usual!" Mostly about Fetterman's gun/jogger incident with a bit of "he's a Bernie guy" thrown in. In my mind he's the closest to a LBJ in terms of FU attitude and wow, we need some of that.
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May 18, 2022 17:35
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Mellow Seas posted:Currently 62.4%. Was 63.4% before Covid, and bottomed out at 60.2%. Why the gently caress do all these businesses have “Now hiring for all positions! We will take anyone! Please we beg of you! We are on our hands and loving knees!!!” signs all over then? The difference is literally 1%.
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May 18, 2022 17:38
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punk rebel ecks posted:Why the gently caress do all these businesses have “Now hiring for all positions! We will take anyone! Please we beg of you! We are on our hands and loving knees!!!” signs all over then? The difference is literally 1%. It was a big focus of Elizabeth Warren's scholarship. She (in?)famously wrote this book: The Two Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Parents Are (Still) Going Broke
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May 18, 2022 17:41
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punk rebel ecks posted:Why the gently caress do all these businesses have “Now hiring for all positions! We will take anyone! Please we beg of you! We are on our hands and loving knees!!!” signs all over then? The difference is literally 1%. Because there are a lot more job openings now than there are people looking for jobs. But, the people offering low pay or undesirable jobs aren't getting many applicants because there are other options. Even the "lower tier" jobs at Wal-Mart or Amazon Warehouses pay at least $18 with some perks. Why would anybody want to work as a cashier at a retail store or a fast food place for $8.50 an hour when you have that option? Those jobs usually thrived because they were the easiest jobs with no previous skill requirement to apply for and were the only/easiest option for applicants in that range. If you can go to Amazon and get $18-$22 an hour and some perks and get hired on the spot, then "nobody will want to work" at your job that was previously their only/easiest option.
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May 18, 2022 17:45
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punk rebel ecks posted:Why the gently caress do all these businesses have “Now hiring for all positions! We will take anyone! Please we beg of you! We are on our hands and loving knees!!!” signs all over then? The difference is literally 1%. If I recall correctly a lot of CARES act money was contingent on making an effort to keep people employed, so it's speculated a lot of the "now hiring" is for ghost positions the businesses never had any intention of filling.
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May 18, 2022 17:47
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Zophar posted:If I recall correctly a lot of CARES act money was contingent on making an effort to keep people employed, so it's speculated a lot of the "now hiring" is for ghost positions the businesses never had any intention of filling. That's a very interesting hypothesis.
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May 18, 2022 17:49
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Mellow Seas posted:Also the participation rate never even reached its current level until the late 70s. Turning this into a nation of two income households, from a nation of one income households, while keeping household incomes flat, was the most amazing trick the capital class ever managed. Raw labor participation rate isn't all that useful for long-term comparisons of unemployment rates since the percentage of the population that's retired is such a huge variable over time. Obviously that has important economic consequences on multiple levels, but labor participation dropping as the boomers hit retirement age was a predictable event independent of available jobs and their pay rate. A comparison of today's rate to 2000 (when boomers were in their 40s and 50s) that doesn't account for that isn't really meaningful. One that compares to generations further back when women were expected to become housewives is even less so, though you're right that it says a lot about how capital took advantage of it.
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May 18, 2022 17:50
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Zophar posted:If I recall correctly a lot of CARES act money was contingent on making an effort to keep people employed, so it's speculated a lot of the "now hiring" is for ghost positions the businesses never had any intention of filling. The ERC, PPP, and SVO provisions all either expired 8+ months ago or didn't have reimbursement/forgiveness eligibility that hinged on maintaining a certain number of positions total. So, there isn't any reason for them to be doing that almost a year later.
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May 18, 2022 17:51
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:My "I never hit anyone with a frying pan or ran anyone over" slogan will finally have a market Apparently shes been accused of domestic violence multiple times, by 2 ex husbands and her daughter. https://restorationnewsmedia.com/enterprise/news/sandy-smith-denies-domestic-violence-claims-in-heated-gop-congressional-primary-536359
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May 18, 2022 18:01
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More bad news on top of the NY redistricting https://twitter.com/ap/status/1526955950409756676?s=21&t=k8y9IHvUtZIsETO8RkXyGQ
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May 18, 2022 18:08
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Morrow posted:3) A lot of people did drop out of the workforce due to covid, and that's what they may be referencing, but generally they dropped out as they retired, had disabilities, needed to care for family members (reminder: some open jobs don't pay enough to justify the cost of daycare, and a lot of kids still intermittently teleschool), or went back to school. These people have not been offered appropriate incentives to get them back in the workforce. The way I'm hearing it is that everyone got early retirement from collecting $1400 - $2000 and that caused all this inflation.
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May 18, 2022 18:08
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BiggerBoat posted:The way I'm hearing it is that everyone got early retirement from collecting $1400 - $2000 and that caused all this inflation. No, the massive economic stimulus caused maybe 1% inflation. But if you were on the fence about retiring, somewhere in your 60s, covid was a pretty good time to do so.
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May 18, 2022 18:11
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Speaking about fiscal policy and inflation, the UK just passed the U.S. for highest inflation for an OECD country. They are at 9.6% and the Bank of England is predicting further increases up to 10.8%. Biden's stimulus really did a number on them.
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May 18, 2022 18:14
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DeBlasio has now filed paperwork for a Mayoral campaign expenditure committee, a Gubernatorial exploratory committee, and a Congressional exploratory committee in the last 5 months. https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1526962799397818369
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May 18, 2022 18:23
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Someone who knows more about economics walk me through this because I was thinking about the inflation and the right's excuses for it and there's a pretty obvious counterargument I haven't heard. So what you hear out of idiots a lot is, "the inflation is caused by people having more money. Either the one time $2000 or general wage increases gives people more buying power, which increases demand on products, which causes prices to rise, bingo bango." Except if you think about it, the principle should either apply quite slowly and based on individual products, instead of whoever is setting the prices looking at the room and going, "yeah I think we can charge more for this." Take grocery stores. Anybody who does the grocery shopping has probably noticed that everything is more expensive, even basic poo poo like milk or canned vegetables. In order for me to believe demand has increased for these products I have to believe people were not buying them previously at the rate they are now, which would suggest the only thing staving off inflation before all this happened would have been people not eating, which is either stupid or cruel. The argument then becomes "all of this inflation is caused by not enough people starving."
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May 18, 2022 18:33
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Uts me, I'm the one who doesn't want to work
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May 18, 2022 18:47
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Speaking about fiscal policy and inflation, the UK just passed the U.S. for highest inflation for an OECD country. I keep forgetting to bring this up for people that listen to and cite a lot of FOX news because, near as I can tell, the inflation and supply shortages are pretty much global in nature. That Biden guy gets around. Also, wasn't Trump's stimulus supposed to be even larger? How did that not cause all this poo poo? I guess the Ukraine war, Brexit and a global pandemic have nothing to with it and Biden caused everything. I try to stop short sometimes because I hate loving defending Joe Biden on any level and I think it was the least enthusiastic vote I ever myself casting but all this poo poo right now seems bigger than anything he's doing. Or, more accurately, not doing I'm not a registered democrat and never have been because, honestly, I could do without nominees like Biden, Hillary and Kerry or people like Bill "Third Rail" Clinton and his stupid drug wars. Al Gore was a good candidate (and Kerry was better than Bush) but at that stage of my life in 2000 I wasn't as plugged in as I am now and paid far less attention. I was pretty fired up to vote for Obama and still feel burned by the experience of donating time and money to his campaign even though right now, I'd gladly take him over Biden, Trump or whatever piles of burning trash get the nom in 2.5 years. I've never voted for a Republican in my life but if it came down right now to someone like a Romney or a McCain vs. a second Biden term...? I honestly don't know. poo poo seems that bad to me. It's hard for me to see much of difference and at least those guys aren't Trumpists. If it's Biden v Trump 2, I'll probably "waste my vote" and find a third party candidate or a write in. I don't think anything is going to prevent DJT2.0 though.
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May 18, 2022 18:47
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Mendrian posted:Someone who knows more about economics walk me through this because I was thinking about the inflation and the right's excuses for it and there's a pretty obvious counterargument I haven't heard. The other side of this is that companies were advised that they could raise prices and increase profits, because they could just blame "inflation" rather than "corporate greed". The inflation at the grocery store is greatly due to companies that think they can get away with it.
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May 18, 2022 18:47
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Mendrian posted:Someone who knows more about economics walk me through this because I was thinking about the inflation and the right's excuses for it and there's a pretty obvious counterargument I haven't heard. No you have it, and no real(ie not politically oriented) economists believe the stimulus had anything but an extremely minor effect, at most 1% as Leon has said. I just had a specific baked good at my local grocery store go up striaght 100% increase. Exactly double. And it happened in the past month. Did people start making 100% more money due to the one time stimulus that happened a year ago? Or is the grocer gouging? It must be the 1 time stimulus, the only type of government spending that causes inflation.
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May 18, 2022 18:49
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Jaxyon posted:No you have it, and no real(ie not politically oriented) economists believe the stimulus had anything but an extremely minor effect, at most 1% as Leon has said. And certainly not advisors like McKinsey telling the grocery store board of directors to do this.
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May 18, 2022 18:51
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AsInHowe posted:The inflation at the grocery store is greatly due to companies that think they can get away with it.
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May 18, 2022 18:52
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AsInHowe posted:The other side of this is that companies were advised that they could raise prices and increase profits, because they could just blame "inflation" rather than "corporate greed". This. It's worth pointing out that for all the gently caress This Inflation outrage and the C19 shutdowns, that corporate profits have never been higher. People might be losing their homes and having cars repossessed but Apple, Amazon, Google and so forth made a loving killing and still are. To me, it's basically late stage capitalism squeezing whatever juice is left from 95% of the population. Banks seems to be doing fine, for instance, but I'm not an economist either so I dunno. Maybe I'm stupid. I guess we just gave poor people too much money and now we're all lazy. Full disclosure: I am lazy and also do not want to work. But I was like that before all this poo poo.
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May 18, 2022 18:52
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:DeBlasio has now filed paperwork for a Mayoral campaign expenditure committee, a Gubernatorial exploratory committee, and a Congressional exploratory committee in the last 5 months. de Blasio 202X: “You fuckers miss me yet?”
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May 18, 2022 18:57
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BiggerBoat posted:I guess we just gave poor people too much money and now we're all lazy. This is what your business owner and financial TV watcher is being told, yeah. There is a whole media apparatus in this country designed to funnel this nonsense towards anyone that might be in control of capital. It's either "that's socialism" on the right or empty social platitudes on the left, but it all comes back to this point. Actually, people want less money, and they like it that way! Why are unions fighting for what people don't want???
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May 18, 2022 18:59
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AsInHowe posted:This is what your business owner and financial TV watcher is being told, yeah. There is a whole media apparatus in this country designed to funnel this nonsense towards anyone that might be in control of capital. It's either "that's socialism" on the right or empty social platitudes on the left, but it all comes back to this point. That's more "telling people what they want to hear" than influencing them. The business owners and finance bros already thought that
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May 18, 2022 19:06
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d&d mods do not approve of any dog piles, gish gallops, or posting stampedes
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May 18, 2022 19:09
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Fritz the Horse posted:d&d mods do not approve of any dog piles, gish gallops, or posting stampedes Come on now, we all know you fancy a gallop every now and then I'm sorry, i'm so sorry
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May 18, 2022 19:13
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Fritz the Horse posted:d&d mods do not approve of any dog piles, gish gallops, or posting stampedes A horse not approving of gallops or stampedes?
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May 18, 2022 19:14
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AsInHowe posted:The other side of this is that companies were advised that they could raise prices and increase profits, because they could just blame "inflation" rather than "corporate greed". And it's reinforced by the fact that they have gotten away with it.
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May 18, 2022 19:15
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punk rebel ecks posted:Why the gently caress do all these businesses have “Now hiring for all positions! We will take anyone! Please we beg of you! We are on our hands and loving knees!!!” signs all over then? The difference is literally 1%. A one percent difference is still 2 million+ individuals who have left the workforce. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/29/job-market-2021/ The WSJ took a look at the labor market late last year, and while I dislike how they choose to use narrow y-axes to make small shifts seem titanic and what they choose to give the most attention to, they give a pretty good overview of some of the big factors affecting the return to work. The leading cause is retirement, followed by the nebulous "other," with specific pandemic concerns, "did not want to work," and childcare following in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th slot respectively (though their data only captured responses through October of 2021). I would imagine that folks dropping out of the labor force at all income levels would tend to be felt most acutely in lower wage (especially lower wage service industry) positions as your talent pool pursue some of those newly available positions. And that would likely be compounded by those service industry positions being the ones that were more likely to see a drop off due to retirements, pandemic concerns, and the need for affordable childcare.
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May 18, 2022 19:15
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Someone needs to look at that horse, it's on the fritz again
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May 18, 2022 19:16
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Jaxyon posted:No you have it, and no real(ie not politically oriented) economists believe the stimulus had anything but an extremely minor effect, at most 1% as Leon has said. Also worth noting that the trillion dollar tax cut to billionaires and super millionaires right before the world went to poo poo is never talked about as a factor but good fiscal sense. That is also a trillion dollars back into "the economy" that mysteriously is never talked about in these discussions.
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May 18, 2022 19:17
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In all seriousness if you feel someone is being unfairly dogpiled then report it as such and we'll have a look. Also I see CommieGIR posted a midterm elections thread and I didn't notice him mentioining it itt: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4002330 We're not chasing all midterm discussion out of this CE thread at the moment but might if/when it gets really busy.
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May 18, 2022 19:18
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Mooseontheloose posted:Also worth noting that the trillion dollar tax cut to billionaires and super millionaires right before the world went to poo poo is never talked about as a factor but good fiscal sense. Or the massive amounts of QE. Or the huge loans to the businesses and bailouts during covid. Or trillions on war and mil contractors. No, it's only poor people getting a one time payment. That's the only inflationary spending possible. And it's so incredibly disruptive it continues for years after.
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May 18, 2022 19:19
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I read this politico article posted in this thread: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/13/madison-cawthorn-injury-profile-00032002 And after it, I went on a deep dive to Cawthorn's candidacy times and he was vastly different. Praising AOC, saying "black lives matter", and appearing as a fairly level headed GOP-er, and not at all really crazy. I thought that it's crazy how much long life in politics has changed him and then... holy poo poo it was January 3rd of last year. Dude's been in for bit over a year, and it's like two decades of scandals, craziness, and becoming not even a husk of the type of image he wanted to portray as a candidate. gently caress that was rapid.
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May 18, 2022 19:20
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Vahakyla posted:I read this politico article posted in this thread: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/13/madison-cawthorn-injury-profile-00032002 He was lying about all that poo poo hth. The mask just came off.
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May 18, 2022 19:23
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haveblue posted:Someone needs to look at that horse, it's on the fritz again don't look a mod horse in the young mouth
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May 18, 2022 19:24
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I'm legitimately shocked at how inept and out of lockstep with their voters the democrats really are. If Fetterman winning the primary, and if he goes on to win the general doesn't wake them up, nothing will. I can understand the rational of choosing a candidate who can bring in money. But this isn't brunch anymore. Brunch is over if you want to remain a viable political party.
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May 18, 2022 19:28
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Keep coming back to the simple fact that GOP leadership had all the goods they needed to either keep Cawthorn in check, or beat him in an election. It makes me think that one of two things is possible re: Dems who block the agenda 1. leadership has no leverage over Manchin and Sinema, no “do this or we reveal this” material. This is utter malpractice on their part. 2. They have it but won’t use it because ultimately they don’t care. Neither is an acceptable possibility.
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May 18, 2022 19:28
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Oracle posted:He was lying about all that poo poo hth. The mask just came off. I genuinely think lying about all that is a bit beyond his juvenile capabilities. I think he just went loving bonkers.
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May 18, 2022 19:29
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