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VideoGameVet posted:Thomas Hartmann has an interesting thesis on how the SCOTUS upcoming ruling on State Legislatures overruling popular vote (Moore vs. Harper) will play out in 2024. Is this just doom and gloom or a real possibility. He lost me at 12. This idea that these fat retired rednecks will easily mow down and pacify the outraged but weak unarmed lefty majority is just a cartoonish caricature. Every culture and group has guns available. This is the most heavily armed nation on the planet. Maybe one side has only 2 guns per person while the other side has 20 guns per person. OK.... so?
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Jul 5, 2022 01:58
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Yeah most large protests, even impromptu ones, have pretty significant security along the periphery. They have to, right wingers coming to shoot up/run down people daring to protest has been happening for as long as this country has had protests
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Jul 5, 2022 02:00
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If sn incumbent president runs, the nomination is his to lose, and there’s not much evidence that someone steps up to challenge who didn’t even try in 2020 when literally everyone was lining up for the clown car.
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Jul 5, 2022 02:05
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Yinlock posted:On the Pence'd thing let's not forget that Trump is an undisputed master at convincing people he works with that they're singularly special and definitely won't be thrown under the bus the millisecond something goes wrong, unlike every other person he has ever worked with. He might but no way it works the other way around with Donald as VP. He's already sat in the catbird seat and found it very much to his liking. I could see DeSantis parlaying a single second term of DJT into a nomination 4 years out. He's relatively young, would certainly carry FL and it might set him up for the next 12 loving years. AFAIK, the only thing he's done to piss off Trump is not automatically kissing his rear end on every issue, which might be enough to turn off Donald and some MAGA voters, but he's never implicitly called out Trump for any bullshit that I recall.
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Jul 5, 2022 02:09
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BiggerBoat posted:He might but no way it works the other way around with Donald as VP. He's already sat in the catbird seat and found it very much to his liking. I could see DeSantis parlaying a single second term of DJT into a nomination 4 years out. He's relatively young, would certainly carry FL and it might set him up for the next 12 loving years. AFAIK, the only thing he's done to piss off Trump is not automatically kissing his rear end on every issue, which might be enough to turn off Donald and some MAGA voters, but he's never implicitly called out Trump for any bullshit that I recall. DeSantis is only 3 years older than Pete, he's like 4-5 years away from being the older cohort of millennials lol. He's got pleeeeeeenty of time if he chooses to take is slow and he'll be a figure of terror in this country for the rest of our lives, I just don't think he will be able to resist since now is pretty much the best opportunity anybody could ask for with Presidential ambitions
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Jul 5, 2022 02:12
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I wonder if there's even going to be a Republican primary in 2024 if Trump announces he's running. Like what Republicans are going to want to go into a debate with their orange god king? Maybe DeSantis but I highly doubt it.
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Jul 5, 2022 02:12
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if there's even going to be a Republican primary in 2024 if Trump announces he's running. Like what Republicans are going to want to go into a debate with their orange god king? Maybe DeSantis but I highly doubt it. Plenty of grifters and people angling for (brief) cabinet positions
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Jul 5, 2022 02:22
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Rigel posted:He lost me at 12. This idea that these fat retired rednecks will easily mow down and pacify the outraged but weak unarmed lefty majority is just a cartoonish caricature. Every culture and group has guns available. This is the most heavily armed nation on the planet. Maybe one side has only 2 guns per person while the other side has 20 guns per person. OK.... so? Yeah that was about the point it descends into delusional wishcasting, when he starts trying to draw an equivalence of means and action between groups of ideologically bound and determined war veterans, combat trained psychos who lived through an absolute hell on earth and came out the other side with an almost an inhuman death drive, vs some of the absolute softest, most coddled and perpetually terrified people ever to live, suburban trump voters. Complete fantasy of finally being as persecuted as he feels
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Jul 5, 2022 02:23
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Rigel posted:He lost me at 12. This idea that these fat retired rednecks will easily mow down and pacify the outraged but weak unarmed lefty majority is just a cartoonish caricature. Every culture and group has guns available. This is the most heavily armed nation on the planet. Maybe one side has only 2 guns per person while the other side has 20 guns per person. OK.... so? Yeah, that part is off the chart … but I don’t see the fault in the SCOTUS actions and GOP state legislatures.
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Jul 5, 2022 02:32
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The fantasy part is imagining there will be a need for mass violence or cancelling future elections. Scotus and Trump can steal an election and just ignore whatever protests develop. People will eventually get tired and go home. When it happens it will all be "legal" so you'll likely have significant elements of the Democratic establishment saying, "Well this is bad obviously but is it really any more anti-democratic than the electoral college blah blah blah..." I don't think this will happen in 2024 though because I suspect the GOP candidate will just win outright.
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Jul 5, 2022 02:43
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VideoGameVet posted:Yeah, that part is off the chart … but I don’t see the fault in the SCOTUS actions and GOP state legislatures. For starters he is assuming that the state legislatures actually overturn the results of the vote not just in one state but in several. That didn’t happen in 2020 despite Trump’s best efforts so it’s not some foregone conclusion it occurs in 2024 especially if Trump’s not on the ballot. It’s possible but we don’t know. And the canceling future elections things is pure headcanon because if you’ve got the system running so as to give you the result you want every time there’s really no need to do that. Plus he seems to forget Biden didn’t win NC in 2020. yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 05:59 on Jul 5, 2022 |
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Jul 5, 2022 02:43
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VideoGameVet posted:Thomas Hartmann has an interesting thesis on how the SCOTUS upcoming ruling on State Legislatures overruling popular vote (Moore vs. Harper) will play out in 2024. Is this just doom and gloom or a real possibility. It doesn't seem like he really fully grasps the associated law. For example, he's right in that the Constitution doesn't require the electors to act based on the results of the popular vote. But he fails to grasp the obvious follow-on from that: under current law and precedent, state legislatures can already pass laws giving themselves the ability to override the popular vote and just choose the presidential electors themselves. In fact, states aren't required to hold popular-vote presidential elections at all - they can just skip the election altogether and go straight to having the legislature pick the electors. As I understand it, as long as the elector-choosing process follows current state law (as it exists on Election Day), the state governor and Congress are both bound to follow the result (although it's not clear that the Electoral Count Act really has the power to bind either the governors or Congress). Now, you might have noticed the one big caveat there: "as it exists on Election Day". The Electoral Count Act guarantees the recognition of electors chosen according to state law, but it guarantees it according to the laws as they exist on Election Day. If the state legislature decides after Election Day that they don't like the result and decide to change it, then their slate of electors lose the protection of the ECA and Congress is no longer legally bound to accept them,. That's a big hole in all the "what if the legislatures overturn the result of the election" theories. The primary impact of the Independent State Legislature doctrine is to remove any influence by state governors and constitutions over the electoral process and associated processes. This would give legislatures free rein to change the state law as they like, without any risk of populist measures being forced on them by things like opposing-party governors or constitutional amendments via ballot proposition. As such, it reduces the ability of the population to restrain the legislature, by removing some of the inter-branch checks and balances. However, these doomsday scenarios where it's some massive change that opens the gates to retroactive election stealing just don't really make sense. The rest of his story is just pure fantasy. The number one lesson of Jan 6th is that whatever ambitions they may hold, the GOP aren't really all that organized. He describes a nationwide mass action with simultaneous coordinated measures between fascist militias and police departments (but I repeat myself) all over the country acting in concert, but that's well beyond any organizational capabilities the right has demonstrated. And the idea that DeSantis could so easily suspend elections - something the US didn't even do in the middle of the actual Civil War - is pretty implausible.
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Jul 5, 2022 02:50
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VideoGameVet posted:Thomas Hartmann has an interesting thesis on how the SCOTUS upcoming ruling on State Legislatures overruling popular vote (Moore vs. Harper) will play out in 2024. Is this just doom and gloom or a real possibility. The "stealing the election" bit is a possibility and what the independent legislature theory is supposed to do, but he doesn't understand how it actually works. My understanding is that the "independent legislature" scheme is intended to steal elections by simply allowing the legislatures to pass whatever voting laws they want, as long as they don't explicitly say "Black people can't vote", so the election is technically fair as far as SCOTUS is concerned.
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Jul 5, 2022 03:25
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VideoGameVet posted:Thomas Hartmann has an interesting thesis on how the SCOTUS upcoming ruling on State Legislatures overruling popular vote (Moore vs. Harper) will play out in 2024. Is this just doom and gloom or a real possibility. Yeah this is pretty absurd. The militia movement is a problem but the Republican Party does not have a military wing. The protests would face the same police response as all the other large protests of recent years. And they would fizzle out because who is going to be willing to lay down their life for Joe Biden, especially when it’s a fairly safe bet that Biden and the rest of the Democratic leadership would be telling everyone to stay calm and make their voices heard in the 2026 midterms.
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Jul 5, 2022 03:59
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That weird junta fantasy seems extremely weird. Even our historical government has a lot of barriers and procedure in it that you don't find in most dictator nations, and that's what mostly what SCOTUS can do: Roll back legislation to whatever historical policy once existed but wasn't deemed suited to modern problems. They don't have to steal an election at the legislature, they just let SCOTUS roll back the civil rights movement far enough that we go right back to needing to count the jellybeans to prove your intellect or whatever other test scheme ensures only whites can vote. It's not about naked partisanship, that's just 'tipping your pitches' to make a rule that says GOP WiNZ. What it's about is appealing to naked racism on suffrage. Not only are liberal whites too few and too clustered together in their political strongholds to win a federal election, but many of them have racist tendencies they're either ignorant of or in spite of their ideology (see also: "super predators"). Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Jul 5, 2022 |
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Jul 5, 2022 03:59
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Yeah, there is no law that says a state cannot say "We don't hold a presidential election in this state, our electoral votes go to whoever the state legislature wishes to send them to" as long as they pass it well before election day. The problem is, in a red state that will definitely go to Trump, DeSantis, or CyberHitler or whoever, this isn't necessary; in a swing state where it's in question, it would be certainly unpopular, perhaps unpopular enough to overcome even a Wisconsin-scale gerrymander (it might be easier than you think, in absolute terms). You're basically taking away that state's right to vote, and I don't think anyone would particularly like that, and it's also kind of abstract enough to require marketing efforts to tie it to its urgent necessity to Own the Libs, which I don't think is going on. e: There has been, at least in Texas, some effort to try and push for the idea of some kind of "state electoral college" for things like governor just to ensure those uppity city folk don't accidentally take away Republican property. Nessus fucked around with this message at 04:03 on Jul 5, 2022 |
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Jul 5, 2022 04:00
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e: nevermind
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Jul 5, 2022 04:15
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BiggerBoat posted:But...I thought the 2016 election was rigged too? Or did the democrats just lose so badly that all the fraud didn't matter? Also, when we were rigging the 2020, how come we forgot to rig the Senate and the House? Seems like a huge fuckup there if we're going to commit all this Soros fraud. A big part of this mindset from Trump and a lot of the conservative talking heads was that they clearly already had marching orders planned to cast doubt on Hillary winning the 2016 election and to make it look like she was doing a horrible president no matter what she did. I remember up until almost like April 2017 basically all of the conservative horseshit news that wasn't about Trump himself was somehow Hillary-related and about horrible stuff Hillary did like they just genuinely didn't have any other material ready.
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Jul 5, 2022 04:29
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Neo Rasa posted:A big part of this mindset from Trump and a lot of the conservative talking heads was that they clearly already had marching orders planned to cast doubt on Hillary winning the 2016 election and to make it look like she was doing a horrible president no matter what she did. I remember up until almost like April 2017 basically all of the conservative horseshit news that wasn't about Trump himself was somehow Hillary-related and about horrible stuff Hillary did like they just genuinely didn't have any other material ready. Like obviously they rallied, but it wasn't immediate
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Jul 5, 2022 04:33
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Pretty much the entire US political-media apparatus is still to some degree flapping loose because history didn't go the way it was meant to.
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Jul 5, 2022 05:19
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A scenario where penn, North Carolina, and Georgia all overturn their elections is effectively secession with them joining presumably the rest of the south east. at that point you’re in Clancy-realm. It did lead me to think about how the gop is backing themselves into a corner where they CANNOT accept a loss in 2024 (or any race in 2022) and how this is going to create pressure by itself. Pressure on the Dems as well. Like imagine a scenario where a dem victory in 2024 depends on them contesting obvious shenanigans in North Carolina or whatever with huge implied violence nationally and low level violence and protesting breaking out regionally. Does anyone think they fight?
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Jul 5, 2022 10:26
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Nessus posted:Yah, I remember thinking the noise machine was kind of flummoxed when Obama got the nomination for a similar reason; they were fully armed and ready to blast Hillary and then some friendly-looking black dude got the nomination instead. True. That whole "anyone but Hillary" rallying cry didn't last long once it got out that Obama was a Kenyan Muslim Socialist with no birth certificate but, like you said, that took a little while.
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Jul 5, 2022 12:52
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I don't know where that Twitter thread is pulling the ideas of open street warfare from, that's not the track the US is on. Stochastic terrorism and eternal mass shootings is how our violence seems to be playing out. The scenario where elections are stolen in advance by laws that the courts declare all good and legal? Yeah that's exactly what is being worked on right now and that's what the GOP wants. Leave the fig leaf of a "democratic" process behind so they can claim they won in "fair" elections and lock themselves in to power.
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Jul 5, 2022 14:55
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Charliegrs posted:I'm not at all familiar with the area the shooting took place in. But maybe it's a heavily "liberal" area?
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Jul 5, 2022 14:58
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Also mass shooters are almost universally radicalised by white supremacist and Nazi rhetoric, but their targets are usually entirely opportunistic and/or familiar. They don't really care, the point is they want to kill people who can't fight back.
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Jul 5, 2022 15:09
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Timeless Appeal posted:I think that honestly looking at the demographics of the specific neighborhood are kind of shaky because it was a parade and you have people from all over Chicago attending and also a super-online chud probably has dumbass stereotypes about Chicago. Looking for logic in his choices is folly. It's a rich suburb 25 miles out of town, and nothing indicated it's some big parade that's a major regional draw. The shooter was a town local though, so it's not like he went shopping for a place to shoot. But with the whole Qanon channer type in a Jewish neighborhood that suggests some possibilities.
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Jul 5, 2022 15:14
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Timeless Appeal posted:I think that honestly looking at the demographics of the specific neighborhood are kind of shaky because it was a parade and you have people from all over Chicago attending and also a super-online chud probably has dumbass stereotypes about Chicago. Looking for logic in his choices is folly. Nobody from "all over Chicago" is going to the Highland Park Fourth of July parade lol. I've been there plenty of times and the people there are just people from the town, filtered for the kind of people who go to Fourth of July parades - lots of affluent white people, plenty of Jews but plenty of non-Jews, some hispanics. The shooter grew up and lived in Highland Park, so he would've understood pretty well that it was Highland Park and not Chicago. And he easily could've gone down into Chicago if he'd wanted, it's not like they have metal detectors surrounding the city. This was not an anti-Chicago thing at all. Killer robot posted:It's a rich suburb 25 miles out of town, and nothing indicated it's some big parade that's a major regional draw. The shooter was a town local though, so it's not like he went shopping for a place to shoot. But with the whole Qanon channer type in a Jewish neighborhood that suggests some possibilities. It was his own neighborhood too, it's not like he went looking for a Jewish neighborhood. It just happens that he was in a neighborhood with a lot of Jews when he snapped. If he'd wanted to go after Jews in particular, he would've shot up one of the many Jewish cultural events that take place throughout the year in HP and other north suburbs. I grew up there, my family knew that family including the shooter. The dad ran a convenience store, he put the shooter's anime drawings up on the walls behind the register. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 15:31 on Jul 5, 2022 |
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Jul 5, 2022 15:25
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Also mass shooters are almost universally radicalised by white supremacist and Nazi rhetoric, but their targets are usually entirely opportunistic and/or familiar. They don't really care, the point is they want to kill people who can't fight back. I used to get into arguments about this point since a lot of gun lovers say the ability to fight back is why everyone needs guns. "Then these cowards won't make these attacks." Maybe it reflects badly on me, but I've stopped trying to talk with these people.
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Jul 5, 2022 15:33
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I briefly saw that there was a shooting incident in Philidephia last night on the morning news and finally had time to look it up. Nobody was killed, and only two cops were injured. They don't even know if it was a purposeful shooting or just bullets fired into the air from somewhere else in the city. It's only a shooting of note because they had to evacuate thousands of people from the area because it happened right before the city's fireworks display. Honestly, it's more remarkable that no one was injured during the evacuation than anything else.
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Jul 5, 2022 16:04
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Twincityhacker posted:I briefly saw that there was a shooting incident in Philidephia last night on the morning news and finally had time to look it up. There's a possibility it goes considerably deeper than that. Philly police loving hate the DA here, Larry Krasner, to the point where they're basically ignoring crime left and right to put him out of a job. That, combined with the facts around this being ... pretty suspect: https://twitter.com/PotCzach/status/1544309336423505920 Means a lot of the locals around here are talking about this being total horseshit manufactured by police to further put the screws to Krasner and the mayor.
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Jul 5, 2022 16:48
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Also mass shooters are almost universally radicalised by white supremacist and Nazi rhetoric, but their targets are usually entirely opportunistic and/or familiar. They don't really care, the point is they want to kill people who can't fight back. The shooter: This is my surprised face.
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Jul 5, 2022 16:49
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Toaster Beef posted:There's a possibility it goes considerably deeper than that. Philly police loving hate the DA here, Larry Krasner, to the point where they're basically ignoring crime left and right to put him out of a job. That, combined with the facts around this being ... pretty suspect: Something similar went down with the San Francisco DA and the cops outright refusing to do their jobs til he was voted out in extremely suspicious circumstances. American police forces are entirely rogue and utterly unaccountable, and respond to any attempt to rein them in with at best enabling violence.
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Jul 5, 2022 16:52
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Twincityhacker posted:I briefly saw that there was a shooting incident in Philidephia last night on the morning news and finally had time to look it up. https://twitter.com/sharifajackson/status/1544167574837100544?s=21&t=PUOQM9c6SfnRmMwNoWtrfg Thank god for that mythril weave in his hat.
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Jul 5, 2022 16:57
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There’s no reforming them. You can’t trust the cops, they lie all the time, and they insist you remember all the times they did something right, and never bring up the times they hosed up. Abolish them before they abolish you. There are better ways to live than with an unreliable gang of armed paranoid weirdos you have to pay for running around.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:01
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"Cops create fake shooting and nearly cause a stampede" wasn't on my hellworld bingo card, but I'm not surprised.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:16
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FizFashizzle posted:https://twitter.com/sharifajackson/status/1544167574837100544?s=21&t=PUOQM9c6SfnRmMwNoWtrfg lmao it's still in the casing
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Jul 5, 2022 17:23
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Fister Roboto posted:lmao it's still in the casing You have to understand just how dangerous fentanyl laced bullets are, they don't even have a powder signature and fire with the casing attached.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:25
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Fister Roboto posted:lmao it's still in the casing Yeah absolutely. It's just...really obvious. It's not a hollow point, so either this cop was smart enough to not just pop a round out of the mag of their duty pistol and actually put some effort into it, or they roll with wadcutters on the reg. I'm not sure which would be sadder. Meanwhile, in Florida: https://www.salon.com/2021/06/23/desantis-signs-bill-requiring-florida-students-professors-to-register-political-views-with-state/ Imagine being terrified that a gun registry will be used by the government to round on dissidents, but not being worried about this. Serious question: is this being cribbed from some pre-written agenda from a think tank or whatever, or is Desantis free-styling? A lot of the stuff I've been seeing coming out of Florida isn't just standard Republican cliches. It raises my eyebrows when these ghouls exhibit creativity. Blue Footed Booby fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jul 5, 2022 |
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Jul 5, 2022 17:46
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Yeah absolutely. It's just...really obvious. It's not a hollow point, so either this cop was smart enough to buy just pop a round out of the mag of their duty pistol and actually put some effort into it, or they roll with wadcutters on the reg. I'm not sure which would be sadder. Article is from last year, and I don't see anything in there saying it was slated for 2022, am I missing something or did this not end up happening and there's just some confusion about the dates? As for the 2nd part, the GOP has a very large, well-funded, and extremely successful operation to ensure that passing a law in one state means it gets sent out to all the rest they can to codify it as well. ALEC is the most prominent part of it but it's a foundational part of their theory of power and political operations. Professors have long been a favorite target. FizFashizzle posted:https://twitter.com/sharifajackson/status/1544167574837100544?s=21&t=PUOQM9c6SfnRmMwNoWtrfg I'm going to go insane.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:51
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Epic High Five posted:Article is from last year, and I don't see anything in there saying it was slated for 2022, am I missing something or did this not end up happening and there's just some confusion about the dates? Ah, ok, thanks. I've got a respiratory infection and between the meds and the sleep deprivation I'm not firing on all cylinders.
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Jul 5, 2022 17:53
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